The OtherArena

Bob Morris · Joined: 01 Aug 2006 Posts: 2883 Location: New Mexico

As with last year, I'll do a thread in which we can discuss the box office of the summer movies without discussing spoilers.

Iron Man: Up to $222 million and was second to Narnia 2 in this past weekend's box office. The movie's legs have been really good and $300 million is definitely within its reach.

Narnia 2: Opened at $56 million and should reach $200 million. How much more it gets depends on its legs.

Speed Racer: Up to $29 million through its second weekend and it's going to find reaching $100 million extremely tough. It's going to end up a money loser given its $120 million budget.

Where Speed Racer had its problem was with Iron Man, a movie that received such high praise that Speed Racer would need an equal amount of praise to draw a strong box office. But given how the critics have been nearly unanimous in their praise for Iron Man, and that word of mouth is clearly helping that movie's cause, Speed Racer was in trouble.

Indy 4 is coming. The big question is whether it can set the new Memorial Day box office record.

corrado · Joined: 01 Aug 2006 Posts: 4985 Location: LI

Iron Man's success has been jaw-dropping. It had a monster opening, and yet its able to have very good legs too. Barring either Indiana Jones and/or Dark Knight having phemoneal openings/legs, it may have a chance at being the top-grossing film of the year. Also, nice comeback for Robert Downey JR who may have 2 big hits this year as I think Tropic Thunder coming out this August, will be the sleeper film of the year.

I was surprised that speed Racer failed to make $20 mil 1st week, and finish in 3rd place as well. I knew it was going to be lame but I didn't expect a total catropshe. It may not make $50 mil. Which means its likely to be one of the biggest bombs of alltime.

I'm also kind of surprised at Narnia 2's underwelming opening. I never got how the 1st narnia was one of the biggest blockbusters that year. It looked like it would be an epic flop. Sort of like what Golden Compass turned out to be. Perhaps this is a sign that the Narnia movies will always play 2nd fiddle to the Harry Potter and LOTR movies.

Besides Indiana Jones and Dark Knight, Wall-E the latest Pixar movie and Tropic Thunder will be the next to be blockbusters. You can't go wrong with Pixar and Tropic Thunder looks to be the funniest movie of the year.

I have my doubts on Hancock though. It may be a smash, but it could also be a flop too. Advance reviews have been medicore but I am Legend had similar reviews and that was a blockbuster.

I do think X-Files 2 will really flop at the boxoffice. It looks very bland and generic. Not like the first 5 X-Files seasons and movie.

Steve Yohe · Posted: Mon May 19, 2008 10:46 am Post subject:

Speed Racer really sucked!---Yohe

Steve Yohe · Posted: Mon May 19, 2008 10:49 am Post subject:

Narnia 2 isn't good either. Look for a 60% drop this week.--Yohe

Jeremy Billones · Joined: 07 Aug 2006 Posts: 523 Location: Alexandria, VA

Speed Racer did not suck.

Unfortunately, what Speed Racer did was try to be a movie in the spirit of the original series, which meant it wasn't nearly as (ahem) sophisticated as Batman Begins or even Iron Man. Which meant it didn't have an audience: fans of the original are grown up now and expect more, while kids today have different favorites (and tastes).

A movie that makes $50M Domestic might be a bath for its financers, but isn't a flop. Neither was Evan Almighty, which made $100M Domestic but (like Racer is projected to) barely covered its production budget with Foreign receipts.

jdw · Site Admin Joined: 01 Sep 2005 Posts: 17190

eron · Joined: 01 Aug 2006 Posts: 412

I'm hearing mixed about Speed Racer, Narnia 2 and even Indy. Makes Iron Man look immaculate, but you really have to look at the arguments.

Speed Racer was a way of presenting Speed Racer to a new generation. I doubt it was ever supposed to sell to the old audience that remembered it, other than bringing their children to it. It honestly has no A class stars in it either, or even B class who could be catapulted to A (Like Iron Man and Downey), so it was relying entirely on its look, style and promotion. While it had a lot of look and style, the promotion was pretty weak.

Narnia 2 is dealing with the fact that it expects the audience to grow up with the film much like Harry Potter, but that might not be true. It's a lot darker film, but I find that to be the right move. Being a Narnia reader, I just don't know where they'll go after the third film. I'd actually end it after Dawn Treader.

Finally, Indy, I don't have a clue how it is, because I either hear, "Indy is a fantastic throwback to the days where CG wasn't needed" or "Indy has been ruined by Spielberg and Lucas' obsession with CG". I'm still seeing it. It is mother fucking Indiana Jones. I hope it makes $2 Billion so I can still get Indy 5.

Bob Morris · Joined: 01 Aug 2006 Posts: 2883 Location: New Mexico

Speed Racer and Narnia 2 both would have been helped had they received that high praise Iron Man received. Iron Man is certainly that type of movie that may not have had the initial size of an audience that more popular superheroes such as Spidey and Batman would attract, but the strong reviews from critics and moviegoers alike is clearly helping.

A similar comparison would probably be the first Pirates of the Carribbean movie... a movie in which some people probably weren't sure what to make of it, but the strong reviews convinced more people to see it over time.

Indy 4 will certainly be the top movie this coming weekend, but it wouldn't surprise me to see Iron Man finish second. Narnia 2 didn't have the impressive opening weekend that the first Narnia did and while many people are familiar with the first book, the rest weren't as popular.

If Iron Man pulls in another $30 million this Memorial Day weekend, it could be on its way to being the summer box office king, unless Indy 4 opens to strong reviews like Iron Man did.

Steve Yohe · Posted: Tue May 20, 2008 11:45 pm Post subject:

Can't believe you believe that Speed Racer doesn't suck. Terrible. Boring to the max degree. CG gone goofy.---Yohe

Bob Morris · Joined: 01 Aug 2006 Posts: 2883 Location: New Mexico

Indy 4 drew $126.9 million for Memorial Day weekend. Second behind Pirates 3 for largest Memorial Day weekend.

Iron Man finished third wih $26 million, behind Narnia 2 with $29 million. Still, Iron Man's legs remain quite good, as it's up to $252 million total.

So Iron Man should be a $300 million franchise. Whether Indy 4 gets there depends on its legs.

Narnia 2 may not even reach $200 million, considering how much it dropped off.

eron · Joined: 01 Aug 2006 Posts: 412

jdw · Site Admin Joined: 01 Sep 2005 Posts: 17190

Compass did $300M Foreign and $70M US. Budget of $180M. The US is painful to them because I suspect they thought the could fall out of bed and do $150M on it in the US.

On doing the other two movies, they do have some issues on budget as well, and what Craig and Kidman will want. If I recall, they got Craig before his Bond movie came out. His tag is like up. Plus the cost of movies is going up everywhere. Beyond that, there just wasn't positive vibes on the movie, and I'm not sure even with the $300M non-US that it got good buzz outside the US. It makes for a risky investment of $200M+

Narnia's non-US isn't so hot so far: $51M. On the other hand, it is having a slow release elsewhere. It hasn't opened in the UK ($78M for first one) or France ($34M), doesn't look like it's opened in Germany ($27), and just opened in Japan ($57M). I would be a bit surprised if it does $450M+ like the first one did Foreign, and of course it won't come close to the $290M+ in the US and $740M+ world wide that the first one did. But it will rake in the budget costs.

The strange thing is that I would have thought this was one of the easier to sell of the rest of the books. The series bounces all over the place in the history of Narnia, but Caspian does retain the Pevensie kids in key roles. Lucy and Edmund are back in Dawn Trader, as is Caspian. It seemed that these three were the ones to hook in a core fanbase as it's going to take the fans sticking with it after that as it bounced around with less involvement of the Pevensie kids.

John

corrado · Joined: 01 Aug 2006 Posts: 4985 Location: LI

http://www.deadlinehollywooddaily.com/sex-reign-at-no-1-may-be-only-one-day/

Bit of a surprise this week as Indiana Jones' reign as top movie at the boxoffice was shortlived by "Sex in the City" as Sex was the top movie this weekend at the boxoffice making an estimated 55 million. It should be noted that the strength of Sex's top spot was due to its monster 26.6 million it made when it opened on Friday. Even though it declined by 30% yesterday, it still made the top of the charts.

Indiana Jones was second making 46 million. A decline of 54% from last week. I would expect it to be ahead of Iron Man till 2 weeks from now.

Iron Man squeaked ahead of Narnia 2 making 14 mil to Narnia's 13 million.

Next week Kung Fu Panda should be #1 but I wouldn't be shocked if Zohan sneaks ahead of it. Panda should have more kids viewing it so that's the favorite. I would expect Indiana jones to be at least 3rd place while suffering another big decline.

jdw · Site Admin Joined: 01 Sep 2005 Posts: 17190

Bob Morris · Joined: 01 Aug 2006 Posts: 2883 Location: New Mexico

Indy 4 is well on its way to being a $300 million franchise domestically. Iron Man still has a shot at that mark.

Hard to say if any other movie this summer will get to that point. The second Batman movie might do so, but it will need really need to capitalize on the fanbase Batman Begins generated. Having strong reviews ala Iron Man would also be needed.

I would expect Pixar's newest movie to be a $200 million franchise in the States, which is about the norm for Pixar. Off the top of my head, I believe most Dreamworks pictures, aside from the Shrek franchise, have ended up in the $150 million neighborhood, so that's probably where Panda will end up.