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Summer Box Office 2009 Thread
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corrado



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
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Location: LI

PostPosted: Mon Jun 08, 2009 2:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Final box office numbers have Hangover leapfrogging Up to become the #1 movie at the boxoffice.

Hangover-45.
Up-44.1.

A big upset there.

As for Land of the Lost, it looked more like a Ferrell movie than a reboot of the old Land of the Lost series. The trailer proves it with the bit with Matt Lauer.

And its odd that Anchorman and Old school, the most popular of Ferrell's movies by people now aren't on Will Ferrell's top grossing movies. Those movies are quoted on by people today, more than the movies on that list.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 14, 2009 2:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Very surprising estimates for the weekend:

$33,415,000 Hangover
$30,515,000 Up
$25,000,000 Pelham

Hangover was down just 26% while up was down just 31%. Those are signs of strong legs in this day and age.

I had thought Pelham would have a chance to take the crown - big advertising campaign, action flick having the niche to itself to a degree because Trek and Terminator have been out for a while. I thought Pelham would be over $30M, and that Hangover would be down 35% to 40%, which still would have been good.

Coming this week is:

* Year One

It's getting a massive media push, but it doesn't smell like a major hit.

* The Proposal

Date movie niche, but it seems like The Hangover is eating up that niche. :P

I don't see anything slowing down The Hangover and Up until:

06/24 Transformers
07/01 Ice Age

It's possible that Public Enemies with Depp and Bale could be a sleeper, but I wouldn't bet heavily on it. Terminator not exploding towards an easy $200M on the heels of Batman tends to indicate Bale isn't a draw on his own... even in something that you would think would draw. The closest you could say that Depp drew outside of Pirates was Charlie and the Chocolate Factory... and I'm not sure how much of that was Depp.

It's pretty amazing how long Up will have the niche to itself: from 5/29 to 7/1. Probably wise for Ice Age, though it quickly runs into Potter.

The legs of Up are looking really good.

Third Weekend
$30,515,000 Up
$28,384,483 Nemo
$23,285,367 Cars
$18,793,588 Wall-E
$18,012,196 Ratatouille

Drop
-30.9% Up
-31.0% Cars
-37.9% Ratatouille
-39.1% Nemo
-42.2% Wall-E

Through 3rd Weekend
$191,487,211 Nemo
$187,179,000 Up
$163,055,900 Wall-E
$156,664,916 Cars
$142,997,082 Ratatouille

I'm going to swear up and down that there's no way that Up can keep pace with Nemo, despite the better 3rd weekend and lower drop. We're getting to the point were Nemo just goes nuts with low drops and doing really good Summer weekday numbers given how long it had been out. I think Ice Age will eventually get to Up.

On the other hand, if Up is ahead of Nemo at the end of next weekend ($228.5M), we might have to rethink things. Perhaps not that it will catch Nemo's $339M finish, but that Up may be headed for $300M.

Here's what the movies had left in the tank at this same stage:

$148,227,767 Nemo
$87,418,066 Cars
$63,448,572 Ratatouille
$60,752,264 Wall-E

But here's what's telling:

Here's what's a bit telling:

$33,731,634 Cars (2nd Weekend)
$32,509,203 Wall-E (2nd Weekend)
$30,515,000 Up (3rd Weekend)
$29,014,293 Ratatouille (2nd Weekend)
$28,384,483 Nemo (3rd Week)

Up's take this weekend is closer to the level that the last three movies took on their second weekend. And at that point, those three had between $96M (Wall-E and Ratatouille) and $127M (Cars) left in the tank.

I think at the moment Up is a long shot for $300M. Adding $96M to $100M to it's take leaves it in the $280M-$290M range, and we're not yet sure that's the type of legs it has. But still, that's a hell of a lot closer than anyone would have thought going into the summer. And very strong weekday business and a small drop next weekend, and it might move up into having a chance.

Anyway, at some point it's going to pass Trek, which continues to do well. Then it will be up to Transformers or Potter to top it.

Eddie Muphy's movie bombed out of the gate - just $5.7M. Not terrible surprising.

John
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Iron Chad



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PostPosted: Sun Jun 14, 2009 4:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Eddie Muphy's movie bombed out of the gate - just $5.7M. Not terrible surprising.


Maybe this is why it's a bomb. Eddie Murphy has a new movie out? All I knew Eddie was doing was the Leroy Smith (which is my Dad's name) basketball motivational guy commercials.

-Chad
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Sun Jun 14, 2009 6:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Any Terminator movie without Arnold in it is going to bomb. Movie fans equate Terminator with Arnold and there isn't a single actor on the planet who could take over the top role and get it to draw.

I really don't know how much business Ice Age is going to do. The second one didn't set the world on fire in terms of positive reviews, as compared to the first one. It might cut into Up's numbers, but it wouldn't surprise me if it bombs, particularly if Transformers 2 gets well received by the fanboys (I somehow doubt the critics will give it high praise, given that it's Michael Bay directing).
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Steve Yohe



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PostPosted: Mon Jun 15, 2009 9:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Arnold was in the movie. Running around in the nude. Didn't you see him?---Yohe
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sat Jun 20, 2009 4:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Looking at the Friday estimates and the numbers through the weekdays, Up's six day winning streak against Nemo ended on Wed. It got within $4M of Nemo's pace through that point, and has now fallen back to trailing by a little under $5M through Friday.

That's not a *bad* thing. It's just telling us that it's not likely to reach Nemo's phenom numbers of $339.7M.

It's number continue to be way ahead of Cars, Rat and WALL-E. $11M more than Cars last week, an $14-$16M ahead of the other two. It's Friday was $2M over Cars, and $2.5M to $3M over the other two. It zoomed past $200M on Thursday before pulling in $6M on Friday. Again, like many Pixar movies, it does better on Saturday and pretty much matches its Fridays on Sundays. So this is going to be another good $20M range weekend. Nemo was $21M, while the other two were in the $10M to $14.5M range. Looks like a 30% drop, which is very strong these days.

I guess my point over the past few weeks on Up is that it's looking closer to Nemo than the last three summer Pixar movies. It's not going to get to Nemo, and it's possible it's not going to get to $300M. But it looks like it's going to top Incredibles as the most successful Pixar movie since Nemo... and it could top $300M.

Hangover is starting to look like a phemon. Just a 18% drop from last Friday, which is pretty similar to the low drop on the weekdays this week. I think it's really hard to predict where this is going to end up because I don't know if we've seen a movie like this in a while. It was barely behind Year One on Friday, and if that movie is frontloaded, Hangover is going to jump it to be #2 behind The Proposal. That's really amazing, and one gets the feeling that it's going to be closing in on $200M next weekend.

I'm guessing that Transformers and Potter are going to do $100M ranger opening weekend. That's a huge leg up they'll have on the other leaders (Trek and Up) so far this year. They're going to come out of opening weekend with anywhere from $30M to $50 leads. Then they get instant summer weekday business, and Transformers gets the 4th of July. They could/should pile up numbers fast.


John
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eron



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PostPosted: Mon Jun 22, 2009 2:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bob Morris wrote:
Any Terminator movie without Arnold in it is going to bomb. Movie fans equate Terminator with Arnold and there isn't a single actor on the planet who could take over the top role and get it to draw.


I honestly liked the movie. I think McG wasn't confident in his abilities to direct a drama so he went 100% action. There wasn't much time to slow down and catch your breath. I was interested in the Marcus Wright character more than anyone else in the movie, which is funny because John Connor is 100% action while Wright had a lot more scenery chewing.

Anyway, I do want to say that I feel I'm tainted after going to my first drive in movie. I got to see Terminator: Salvation and Wolverine back to back for under $10 and didn't feel like I lost anything on the viewing/hearing experience.
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Steve Yohe



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PostPosted: Mon Jun 22, 2009 2:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bet Arnold was hoping that Terminator 4 was going to hit big. With his career in Politics comming to an end, he probably was hoping a #5 would be his comeback film.---Yohe
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jdw
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 23, 2009 10:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Final weekend numbers in:

$33,627,598 The Proposal
$26,753,473 The Hangover
$23,492,677 Up
$19,610,304 Year One

Hangover is becoming something of a phenom, taking in $152.8M through three weekends. It's not going to challenge for the Summer Box Office Title - it's $25M to $30M behind the Up and Star Trek pace. I don't think it can catch up to Trek unless it goes even nuttier in legs. 0% chance of catching Up given Pixar's long tradition of good legs.

Looking at a point from last weekend:

Quote:
Here's what's a bit telling:

$33,731,634 Cars (2nd Weekend)
$32,509,203 Wall-E (2nd Weekend)
$30,515,000 Up (3rd Weekend)
$29,014,293 Ratatouille (2nd Weekend)
$28,384,483 Nemo (3rd Week)

Up's take this weekend is closer to the level that the last three movies took on their second weekend. And at that point, those three had between $96M (Wall-E and Ratatouille) and $127M (Cars) left in the tank.

I think at the moment Up is a long shot for $300M. Adding $96M to $100M to it's take leaves it in the $280M-$290M range, and we're not yet sure that's the type of legs it has. But still, that's a hell of a lot closer than anyone would have thought going into the summer. And very strong weekday business and a small drop next weekend, and it might move up into having a chance.


Looking at that same comp this week:

$23,492,677 Up (4th Weekend)
$23,285,367 Cars (3rd Weekend)
$21,138,752 Nemo (4th Week)
$18,793,588 Wall-E (3rd Weekend)
$18,012,196 Ratatouille (3rd Weekend)

That's really amazing legs, being comped with a bunch of movies that had good legs relative to their release years. The Up vs Nemo comp makes my head hurt. :) It really trashes one's ability to be cautious and conservative about Up's potential. I'm still swearing up and down that Up can't catch Nemo. But it beat Nemo on Sat-Sun-Mon. It's smoking hot at the moment.

$300M looks much more solid now. This is probably a big stretch for Up from now to 7/1 when Ice Age 3 comes out and drops into the niche Up has been dominating.

John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Wed Jun 24, 2009 10:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

A link off what Corrodo posted on the Oscars had this:

'Transformers' opens with $16 million

I think we have our answer on whether Transformers will be a big hit. The first one did $8,801,025 in mindnight business before doing $27.9M on opening night (Tuesday the 3rd before a Wed 4th of July.

This could gallop quickly to big money pretty fast. The first one got to $155,405,412 by the end of its first weekend, though it was an extended on (Wed 4th). This one is set up to pull in a strong Wed-Sun opening weekend, then a strong Thur-Sun extended second weekend with the 4th causing the holiday next Friday. This things getting up in the $200M+ by next weekend is possible if the midnight showings aren't an indication of extreme frontloading.

John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 30, 2009 10:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ridiculous opening for Transformers:

$62,016,476 Opening Day (included midnight showings)
$91,110,948 Wed+Thu

$108,966,307 Opening Weekend

$200,077,255 Extending Opening (Wed-Sun)

Clearly the favorite to be the #1 movie of the summer. It will blow by $300M over the 4th of July weekend. How far past that... who knows. Could be a $400M movie if it doesn't fall way off in the 3rd weekend.

The Potter movies haven't done $300M in a while. I wouldn't have been surprised if this one did, which is why I thought it had a shot at the title for the summer. But it looks like it's going to need to go far past $300M now.

Up has busted through $250M and taken the lead from Star Trek. But it's not going to hold it long. It fell behind the dailies of Nemo last week. Still has a decent chance at $300M if it weren't for Ice Age coming out this weekend. This was probably the week with the holiday that it would have needed to make a nice little run. It will be interesting to see if they leave it out a while to try to chase $300M, or if they pull it in the $280s.


John
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Steve Yohe



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PostPosted: Tue Jun 30, 2009 1:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Transformers 2 sucks too. The girl is something to look at but I couldn't tell one dumb ass robot from another. Thought it would never end .Wanted to go to sleep but the noise blocked it.---Yohe
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jdw
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 06, 2009 10:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

61% weekend drop off for Transformers, so it's probably a frontloaded movie. Weekend numbers are tough to judge for all movies since Saturday was the 4th. But it was down 60% on Friday as well, and that was a full holiday.

On the other hand, it's blasted to $293.5M already. It's $37M ahead of the pace of Spidey-2 and topped it Tue-Sun with the exception of the low holiday Saturday. Spidey-2 got to $373.6M. This sure smells like a $350M+ movie, and most likely a $370M+ movie.

Up fell quite a bit behind the pace of Nemo for the first time on Wed: exactly when Ice Age opened. It finished Fri-Thu about $2.7M behind the week 5 take of Nemow, about $1.5M+ on Wed-Thu. The weekend alone was $4.5M behind Nemo. Part of that was the soft 4th of July business, part of it was Ice Age. It's the first time it's weekend take has fallen behind Cars, whereas in weekends 3-5 it's take was more similar to Cars takes from weekends 2-4.

Cars at this point at $24M left in the tank. Up is still closer to what WALL-E and Ratatouille did in their 5th Weekend. At that point WALL-E had about $28M left and Ratatouille has about $26M left. Up is at $264.9M. Give it a conservative $25M and that gets it to $290M.

Hard to tell if that's reasonable.

Cars opened 6/9/06 and didn't get any animation comp until Monster House (7/21/06) and Barnyard (8/4/06). Neither of those did monster business, just decent. Over The Hedge opened in advance of Cars and did really good $155M business, but that didn't have a lot of impact on Cards.

Rat opened on 6/29/07. It had the Simpsons come out on 7/27/06, but that's not direct comp. In fact, it never had any direct competion.

Wall-E opened on 6/27/07, three weeks after Kung Fu Panda. Space Chimp and the Clone Wars opened after them, but they were bombs.

So Up having Ice Age 3 open up after it is something new.

I think it's safe to say it will top $280M, probably $285M. Getting to $300M is going to be tough unless it gets its second wind this week. Still, it will pass Shrek this week to become the #5 animated movie of all-time. That's where it will top out as #4 (Shrek-3) is up at $322M+. Pixar holds down #2 (Nemo) and #7-11 (Incredibles, Monsters, Toy Story 2, Cars and Wall-E).

John
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Mon Jul 06, 2009 1:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Also worth noting that Hangover surpassed $200 million. That's definitely the surprise hit of the summer.

The new Transformers movie will probably take the overall crown unless the new Harry Potter movie turns into the phenom that Dark Knight was last year.

And Land of the Lost is officially your summer box office bomb... just $47.6 million on a budget of $100 million. That movie will be lucky to get to $50 million.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Tue Jul 14, 2009 9:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Transformers 2 drew $24.2 million and appears to have the summer box office crown locked up ($339 million), unless the new Harry Potter movie becomes a phenom.

I think we all know the new Potter flick will take this coming weekend's box office crown. The question is just how much it will rake in, and whether that amount gives it any chance of catching Transformers 2.

Up is at $274 million. It's probably going to fall just short of $300 million, but its summer showing has been impressive nonetheless.
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