The OtherArena

[Bob Morris]

The new Harry Potter movie drew $58.1 million for opening night Wednesday. After the weekend box office comes in, it will have easily passed $100 million.

Whether or not it can catch Transformers depends greatly on the weekend box office and whether the new Potter movie has any legs. Transformers opened at $62 million (another Wednesday opening) and reached $200 million by the weekend, and while Potter's Wednesday number isn't that far off Transformers, it's going to need to have the same drawing power this weekend to have any chance of winning the summer box office crown. If it doesn't get it, Transformers will be a near lock to win it.

[Bob Morris]

Harry Potter 6: $79.4 million for the weekend, $159.6 million total through the weekend

Transformers 2: $108.9 million for its opening weekend, $200 million total through the weekend

Both films had Wednesday openings and T-2 blew HP6 away. Drawing $200 million from a Wednesday opening through the first weekend was nothing short of impressive for T-2, and the fact it took in $100 million in its first weekend after a $62 million opening day on Wednesday is also amazing.

There really isn't a film left this summer that stands a chance of catching Transformers 2, so it's got the summer box office crown pretty much locked up. It's going to come close to $400 million.

HP6, though, will be a $300 million movie. That hasn't happened since the first Harry Potter film. The fourth and fifth Harry Potter films fell just short of $300 million.

The question now is whether HP6 catches the first film's domestic total ($317 million). The first film didn't have a Wednesday opening and reached $186 million after its second weekend. HP6 may very well pass the first Potter film's mark if it doesn't have a huge drop off in its second weekend.

[jdw]

Looking over Mojo...

I agree that HP6 looks like a fair bet to get to $300M. It's about $20M ahead of the pace of HP5, which did the best business in the franchise since the early days.

Up looks like it's going to be in the $280M to $290M range as discussed earlier.

Ice Age is chasing $200M. You would think looking at it that it's a lock, but it's actually less than $5M ahead of Ice Age 2, which topped out at $195M. It dropped $3M for the full week last week to Ice-2, and a little more than $2M this weekend. It actually has been declining on the weekends at a slower pace than Ice-2, so it's hard to predict. My thought is that it has a pretty decent chance at $200M if it nails a good weekend coming up.

Hangover pulled in another $8.3M. Down just -16.3% from the prior weekend. Bruno barely beat it in its second weekend. If you ask me what the Hit Of The Summer is, there's zero doubt in my mind that it's Hangover with its $35M budget. Transformers, Potter and Up are all $150M to over $200M movies. Ice Age is a nice budgeted $90M, but it's not going to catch up to Hangover's numbers. It's going to make the creative and production team very rich over the coming years with all the deals they get.

John

[jdw]

[jdw]

Strong opening for GI Joe at $56M. Of course it's an expensive movie, so it has a long way to go to make it's $175M budget.

Transformers is up to $393.7M and 2-3 weeks away from $400M.

What's amazing is that Hangover made more on the weekend than Tranformers.

Potter-6 made slightly more last week than Potter-5, but was slightly behind this weekend. It's $12M up on Potter-5 at this point, so as long as it says $8M up on Potter-5, it will get to $300M.

Up is limping towards $290M. It's $3M short, but at this point WALL-E, Rat and Cards all has comfortably more than $3M left in the tank.

John

[jdw]

Looking at the movies that were released in the "summer season" (roughly starting with the first weekend in May) and made $100M:


$402,073,000 Transformers 2
$300,290,780 Harry Potter 6
$292,495,781 Up
$275,386,118 The Hangover
$257,730,019 Star Trek 11 (reboot)

$198,351,526 Ice Age 3
$179,883,157 X-Men 4
$177,180,513 Night at the Museum 2
$163,385,063 The Proposal
$148,957,000 GI Joe
$133,375,846 Angels & Demons (Da Vinci 2)
$125,322,469 Terminator Salvation (reboot)
$118,275,000 Inglourious Basterds
$117,672,433 G-Force
$114,582,771 District 9


Julie & Julia ($92M) appears to be the only summer release with a chance of getting to $100M, but it's weekends are down to the point where it's not going to do it: not really that strong of legs for this type of movie.

Anyway, some thoughts:


$402,073,000 Transformers 2

Continues a semi-trend of 2nd movies of mega blockbusters topping the first. I'm thinking of Pirates and Shrek and The Dark Night as doing it, though the Batman reboot just topped $200M so it wasn't really a mega blockbuster, just a blockbuster that did well and flashed good legs. I suspect Transformers 3 will be similar to Pirates 3 and Shrek 3 of not doing this well.

$300,290,780 Harry Potter 6

Just got past $300M in the past couple of weeks. Best showing in the US since the first Potter movie. Really a quite $300M, similar to the last two being quite $290M's. After the 3rd one falling below $250M, folks probably shouldn't take for granted the box office strength of these.

$292,495,781 Up

Second best showing by Pixar ever, behind only Nemo. Obviously we need to take into effect ticket prices and what not, so I wouldn't say this was #2 as the two Toy Stories were clearly bigger in the context of their times. But Pixar hasn't had this level of big hit since The Incredibles. I loved the business a movie like Ratatouille could do in getting past $200M, and that WALL-E was able to do well last year. But it's very nice to be able to see Pixar get back up here, especially with a story like this. In a year where you see all those sequels and blockbusters on the list, it's nice to see this get up to #3 and make Potter work to be #2.

$275,386,118 The Hangover

Obviously the sleeper of the year. Buzz before it was released, strong marketing campaign, and then buzz right out of the gate. Wonderful contrast to the rest of the stuff high on the list, and it clearly found a niche. I loved the movie.

$257,730,019 Star Trek 11 (reboot)

Did better than the Batman reboot several years back, and of course better than the Superman reboot and Terminator reboot this year. In context, this is the biggest Star Trek hit since #2, The Wrath Of Khan... and doesn't look like it needs to take much of a backsteat to Khan. That said, I don't know if the next one will break through $300M. TDK made a huge jump up, but that really is a different beast and had the Joker buzz to jack up up out of the world from mearly getting to $300M. In a sense, that probably is what the next Star Trek needs: it's Khan or Joker. The problem with that in a series is that in later ones it is very hard to top.

Anyway, one has to look at this as an extremely good number.

$198,351,526 Ice Age 3

Pretty much par for the course for this franchise: it does good business. I'm thinking they would have liked to get to $200M for the first time, but given the economy the fact that they didn't fall behind Ice Age 2 is a positive. The franchise didn't die off here, and they can feel safe working on #4.

$179,883,157 X-Men 4

Standard big X-Men opening weekend with little by way of legs. Looks like the worst legs of the four movies, almost half of its take was opening weekend. Not really a bomb, but one thinks they would have liked to get to $200M.

$177,180,513 Night at the Museum 2

$70M below the first one, and almost certainly a big jump in production budget. I think it was a mistake to roll this out in summer rather than saving it for Christmas again.

$163,385,063 The Proposal

If The Hangover is the #1 sleeper of the summer, this is #2 and frankly just about as amazing. It's listed as a chump change $40M budget. Bullock hasn't had a $100M movie since Miss Congeniality way back in 2000, and pretty much hasn't had a true hit since Two Weeks Notice in 2002. That had a $60M budget under the salaries of Bullock and Hugh Grant. This pretty much makes a career rebirth for her, and is going to make her a heck of a lot of $$$ in salary over the next few years until people think she's not bankable again.

$148,957,000 GI Joe

Expensive movie, and that's not a ton of movie given that type. Clearly trying to be this year's Transformers, they would have been better off coming out *last year* or next year rather than being a direct comp.

$133,375,846 Angels & Demons (Da Vinci 2)

I've got to think this is a rather major bomb. The last one did $70M+ more, and a hell of a lot more internationally. Of course Da Vinci was a much bigger book hit than Angels & Demons. This saw an increase in production budget, and just ended up getting blown out of the water in the summer. Another one that would have been better off because an "event" in the Winter rather than being just another big movie in the summer.

$125,322,469 Terminator Salvation (reboot)

I confess to being surprised by this one. It does shoot a massive hole in the notion of Bale's star power. This is a franchise with past success, every bit as much as the other one Bale rebooted. It had the field largely clear: Star Trek debuted weeks before, and Transformers wouldn't debut for another month. There really wasn't any other action movie between them to bleed from it. But just a $42.6M opening weekend, $56M if you count Thu-Sun. It did come out the same weekend as Night At The Museum, but we already indicated that it didn't do bang up business... let alone it's a different genre.

I confess, this is one I don't get. I don't think it was a great movie, but for it's genre, it certainly fell within the range of stuff that's made considerable more money. For example, I think both Transformer movies suck. One really would have thought that Bale + Terminator Franchise would have meant $80M opening weekend and a layup to $200M. Instead, it did less than GI Joe. Strange.

$118,275,000 Inglourious Basterds

Would have expected this to bomb out. Not a big hit, but surprised me.

$117,672,433 G-Force

Always get a few animated movies in here, and looking right right below $100M we see the fall release Cloudy With A Chance of Meatballs as headed towards $100M fast.

$114,582,771 District 9

Nice sleeper hit with a low budget.

There's nothing coming out the rest of the year that will get to $400M, but it will be interesting if we get a phenom that gets past $300M (counting what it makes in 2010 as well).


John