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2010 Box Office Thread
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jdw
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 28, 2010 9:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's legs at the momet are really hard to predict. It was down -40.4% on Monday from the prior Monday. That's not a bad drop:

2nd Monday Drops
-35.1% Despicable Me
-40.4% Inception
-42.8% Toy Story 3
-46.1% The Karate Kid

Those are the summer movies that are comperable: ones where both Mondays are Summer Weekdays rather than School Weekdays like Iron Man 2. They also are the movies that have shown some legs in the summer. We can't comp it directly to Grown Ups since its 2nd Monday was a national holiday (7/5).

Inception isn't off the charts there. It's very good... anytime you're ahead of a Pixar movie you're in a good spot. But it's not quite as jaw dropping great as that -32.0% second weekend.

As a comp, here are the second weekends:

2nd Weekend Drops
-32.0% Inception
-41.8% Despicable Me
-46.2% Toy Story 3
-46.3% The Karate Kid

That's where Inception opened eyes.

Despicable Me came back with the wicked -27.8% on it's 3rd weekend, the one that just passed. Which is one reason I was pointing to looking at how Inception does on it's 3rd.

Toy Story is a tough comp because it opened so monsterous relative to the typical Pixar movie range of $60M to $70M. It may hae dropped -46.2% but that 2nd weekend was huge for Pixar summer movie:

2nd Weekend
$59,337,669 Toy Story 3
$46,589,649 Nemo
$44,138,266 Up
$33,731,634 Cars
$32,509,203 Wal-E
$29,014,293 Ratatouille

I think if we go up the thread, it's even earlier than that when I started talking about it doing $400M:

Quote:
First Tuesday
$15,123,212 TS-3
$7,877,998 Rat
$7,601,082 Wall-E
$7,181,987 Nemo
$6,405,897 Up
$5,743,462 Cars

Right... this is going to be a freaking monster. It's going to do $400M, and if it has a huge second weekend it's time to start thinking about Shrek 2's animation record of $441M.


Inception... I just can't get a good feel for yet. It's really a matter of how it does this weekend to see if it's a potential phenom. Even if it's a phenom, it might only be in the range of say $275M... which is way more than people probably thought it would get to before it launched. I think it has a shot at $300M, but am just being cautious. It looks like it pulled in another $6M on Tuesday, which is a good sign.

John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 02, 2010 6:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

TS-3 has topped Up's daily totals 11 out of the last 12 days. Some of them fairly large, though more recently modest. Up had a shade over $19M left in the tank at this point. It feels like TS-3 has as well, and if it keeps beating the dailies for another week it looks to have more than that. Up's total left in the tank would take it to $408,930,894, which is goo for 9th place of all-time heading past Transformers 2 and Spidey 1. $410M is a possibility, but the $423M of Pirates 2 is far out of its range as is Shrek 2's animated record of $441M.

Inception had another good drop: -35.7% coming off last weekend's -32.0%. It's up to $193M. The trick here remains that while the drops are really good, it's starting point of a $62M opening weekend means that it's down to $27M this weekend. It still needs to take in $107M to get to $300M. That's just a hell of a lot of money when you're down to a $27M weekend, which will be lower next week.

The positive is that it's weekly take was $65M last week, which was a 34% drop. If they drop 35% this week it would be a $43M week, which would take them up to $208M. That's still a *long* way from $300M: over $90M. Another 35% weekly drop after that, which would be terrific legs that far out, would put just under $28M in the hopper... and leave them at $236M... still $64M away. Odds on $300M are really long unless it slows it's weekly drop down even more.

That said, one can see this going to $250M.

If one wants a comp, here are the weekend / weekly drops for The Hangover:

-27.1% / -24.8%
-18.4% / -26.1%
-36.4% / -30.6%
-33.8% / -32.4%
-11.8% / -19.7%
-17.7% / -13.4%
-21.0% / -22.7%
-19.6% / -21.5%

Those are some awesome legs in this era. The Hangover's issue in getting to $300M was that non-blockbuster opening: $45M. Even when you're dropping at a low rate, you're still only taking in so much $$$ relative to someone starting at $100M and dropping 40%. Those moves take massive strides towards $300M right out of the gate, then cut another big chunk off even as they drop.

At this same point:

$193,313,741 Inception
$152,817,015 Hangover

Inception is massively ahead, and you'd think with a move showing "great legs" that it would easily add ontop of what Hangover did ($277M) to get to $300M.

Problem?

3rd weekend: $26,753,473 vs $27,485,245

The first is Hangover, the second is Inception. Nearly a $20M opening weekend advantage to Inception, and Hangover has nearly caught up in weekend pull. Inception my do well in the coming weekends since those are the -36.4% & -33.8% weekends for Hangover... but after that there's those runs of sub-20% weekends for Hangover where the "bad weekend" was a -21%. Hangover just kept chugging along.

I think that's the thing to keep an eye on as a comp: The Hangover, like Up was for Toy Story. Hangover is a different genre, but it's also a hit that's bigger than one could have expected and is showing legs better than expected. If Inception can hang onto a good chunk of that $40M lead while Hangover going nutso in the coming comparative weeks, then Inception has a shot at $300M. But if it starts bleeding Weekend, Daily and Weekly numbers to Hangover by the millions, then it's not getting there.

Then it's a question if it can avoid getting caught by Hangover.

John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 03, 2010 5:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Follow up on Inception since its Monday numbers are in: -29.3% from last Monday, which is an terrific number this far out. It was -40% last Monday from its first Monday, then in the 37-39% range the balance of the week. If it hold below 30%, or even low 30's, another good sign. It will go past $200M on Tuesday. It's a comfortable #1, so it's not going to get super hammered on losing theaters.

Hangover remains a good one to comp against for legs.

John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 10, 2010 11:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Monday was only the second of 25 days that Inception has been behind the pace of The Hangover. Small amount, just $46,983. The other day was the third Friday (day 15 overall), again a smallish amount: $216,806 when both movies were over $8M that day. Overall, Inception is $44.5M ahead of the pace of The Hangover. Looks good for $300M, but not quite yet a lock.

Toy Story should hit $400M this weekend.

John
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matt farmer



Joined: 29 May 2010
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 11, 2010 5:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Saw the movie "The Other Guys" this past weekend, and I gotta say it was a really great comedy. I'm easy to please when it comes to comedies but I really enjoyed this one. Reminds me of other Will Farrell movies like Step Brothers, or Anchor Man.

Anyone know how it did?
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Iron Chad



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PostPosted: Thu Aug 12, 2010 5:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Think it did $35 million, and I agree Other Guys was a quality Ferrell comedy. He owed us one after Land of the Lost.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 12, 2010 9:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

matt farmer wrote:
Saw the movie "The Other Guys" this past weekend, and I gotta say it was a really great comedy. I'm easy to please when it comes to comedies but I really enjoyed this one. Reminds me of other Will Farrell movies like Step Brothers, or Anchor Man.

Anyone know how it did?


Good souce for box office info is Box Office Mojo:

http://boxofficemojo.com

The Others Guys opened to $35M as Chad said. Just under $10M on Mon-Tue. Good Mojo tool for tracking it is relative to other Farrell movies:

Ferrell Face-Off

Compares it with Step Brothers, Semi-Pro, Blades of Glory, Talladega Nights and Anchorman. Two ways to look at it: Daily and Weekends.

They're not straight apples-to-apples comps because Semi-Pro and Blades of Glory weren't summe movies. Land of the Lost is noticeably missing, but it also bombed huge... thought Semi-Pro did even worse.

The weekend is behind Talladega but better than the rest. The Mon-Tue are also behind Talladega, but ahead of Step Brothers slightly on Mon and larger on Tue. That's probably the comp to watch. It's not going to match Talladega's numbers, but matching or topping Step Brothers is probably its goal.

John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 19, 2010 11:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

TS-3 hit $400M on Saturday and is just under $402M on Wed. Up had about $9M left in the tank, and TS-3 has slid back ahead of its dailys. Looks like $410M is around in its range.

Twilight is hitting the wall, but it's just a shade under $296.5M. It will take it a few weeks to get to $300M, but it should get there with some room to spare. It's not catching Iron Man's $312M

Inception has been behind Hangover in 9 out of the last 10 dailys, the exception being a really strange Saturday where Hangover was below the Fri and Sun that bookended it. Inception is up to $253M. Hangover had $67M left in the tank. Inception doesn't have that much left, but doesn't need all that to get to $300M. Last weekend's drop was 39%, which remains pretty solid. Weekdays remain pretty good, a bit under $4.5M combined Mon-Wed. Should be very close to $260M by the end of the weekend. Not much summer left, should be able to get a better guess on its chances of making $300M by the end of Labor Day weekend. It's got a shot.

Despicable Me is up to $225M and still pulling in $1M+ weekdays. $250M perhaps... probably. Really good numbers for it. It's $12M behind Shrek 4 ($237.4M), and gaining fast. That would be a pretty big upset.

Salt hit $100M. Grown Ups is going to be in the low $160M range. Don't think Schmucks gets to $100M. The Other Guys is dropping fairly fast, but should get the $23M it needs to get to $100M. Expendables us $3M behind Other Guys pace and bleeding each day to it. Unless if pulls a lower drop in the second weekend it's not likely to get to $100M.

$130M for Airbender, which means M Night gets another movie.

TS-3 is up to $941.2M worldwide. Made $22.7M last week with a light drop. Seems like it's got a decent shot at becoming the 7th billion dollar movie, and passing TDK for 6th. Alice at 5th with $1,024.3M is really quite amazing.

John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 30, 2010 2:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Inception continues to show good legs: down just 38% while getting up to $270M. Still, I think it's chances of $300M have reached a breaking point.

The Hangover pulled in $8M+ on its 7th weekend taking it up to $235.7M. It had just over $31M left in the tank at this point. However, its 8th and 9th weekends were higher than Inception's 7th, and this 7th weekend of Hangover was right in the middle of its great run of drops that I've mentioned earlier:

-11.8% - 6th
-17.7% - 7th
-21.0% - 8th
-19.6% - 9th

Inception just can't match those. So it doesn't have $31M left in the tank, and frankly doesn't look to have close to the $30M it needs. My thought... $290M would be very good.

This goes back to the point at the start of Inception's great drop rates: it just didn't open strong enough to get to $300M. Hangover was *awesome* in drops, but it's $45M meant it still ended up $23M short of $300M. Inception opened with $63M, and even bleeding very good drops, it got down under the $10M mark too fast, and then the $5M mark.

Great run at the box office, though.

The Expendables looks like it's getting to $100M. Just $18M away on the $9M weekend, and under 50% drop. The Other Guys should get to $100M in the next few days.

Despicable Me is slowing, probably less than $250M but will get past $240M with ease. Really good run.

Twilight-3 is up to $298M, bleeding theaters but had next to no drop in the $500K range for the weekend. I keep saying it will get to $300M. Not much beyond it, but it will get there.

TS-3 moved ahead of Spidey-1 for 9th place domestically, which is as high as it will get. Got over $1B worldwide, passing TDK for 6th and soon to pass Alice for 5th. I'm not sure folks get how huge Alice was world wide. TS-3 is $54M behind Pirates-2 for 4th... don't know if it's taking in enough to get there.

John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 19, 2010 6:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Obviously Toy Story won the Summer Box Office Race, which ended unofficially with the Labor Day Weekend. An number of movies that came out in the summer are still plugging away putting up numbers.

Going with the early May releases as the "start" of the summer releases, the $100M movies have been:

$410,608,000 Toy Story 3
$312,128,345 Iron Man 2
$300,099,000 The Twilight Saga: Eclipse
$285,178,000 Inception
$244,701,000 Despicable Me
$238,395,990 Shrek 4
$176,464,965 The Karate Kid
$160,678,105 Grown Ups
$131,567,000 The Last Airbender
$116,451,621 Salt
$115,431,000 The Other Guys
$105,269,730 Robin Hood
$101,050,000 The Expendables

$50M-$100M:

$95,347,692 Sex and the City 2
$90,743,446 Prince of Persia
$77,686,000 Eat Pray Love
$77,222,099 The A-Team
$76,328,129 Knight & Day
$72,215,000 Dinner for Schmucks
$62,254,032 The Sorcerer's Apprentice
$60,974,475 Get Him to the Greek
$53,032,453 Letters to Juliet

$52,346,000 Takers
$51,875,019 Predators

Closed

Inception took in about $2M this weekend. It doesn't have another $15M in the tank, but should get to $290M.

Despicable Me chasing $250M is interesting. $870K this weekend, it depends how long it stays out. Twilight has made $3M since it fell below a $870K weekend. A big part of that was a big push last weekend, expanding nearly 800 theaters that it gave back (and more) this weekend. Despicable Me is showing much better legs. Either way, it finishing ahead of Shrek 4 is one of the bigger surprises of the summer.

The Karate Kid, Grown Ups, The Last Airbender and Salt... these all did better than I would have expected. The Other Guys is Will, and you never know how well his movies will do. Robin Hood ended up solid considering it didn't lauch strongly, and The Expendables is a decent enough end-of-the-summer hit.

Sex and the City 2 might be the bomb of the summer given how much the first one made, and how bad the reviews were for this.

No one under $100M is going to get to $100M.

John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 09, 2011 7:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Holiday Box Office of movies making $50M+.

$287,723,000 Potter 7.1
$175,868,000 Tangled
$147,925,000 Tron
$123,982,000 Little Fockers
$110,430,000 True Grit
$94,681,000 Narnia 3
$75,606,000 Yogi Bear
$61,455,000 Black Swan
$61,391,000 The Tourist
$57,844,000 The Fighter

Ones earlier in November ahead of Potter:

$144,658,000 Megamind
$99,397,228 Due Date
$80,020,000 Unstoppable


Potter 7.1 may just get to $300M. Twilight 2 finished at $296.6M with a similar release date in 2009. Potter 7.1 is almost exactly $3M behind it's pace to-date, but it's knocked $3.5M and $1.9M off that lead in the last two weeks. It already knocked $700K off the lead this weekend. So it's closing that $2M gap fairly fast. Once it gets there, it needs to stay enough ahead of the pace that it will add $3.4M above what Tw-2 did. Not impossible.

Tangled put up $12.6M last full week, and already $5M+ this week from the weekend. It's got a shot at $200M.


Don't think Tron will have enough legs to get to $200M, but it might top the $176M of Karate Kid, which is currently the top sub $200M movie (until Tangled passes it). I thought the thing would bob, so this isn't too bad.

Little Fockers vs True Grit is going to be interesting to watch. $13M lead, and True Grit really hasn't picked up significant ground on it yet. It's declining at a better rate, but not massive yet. I wouldn't bet against it eventually catching it, especially if there's big Academy Award nominations. I don't think there's anyway for it to have enough legs to get to $200M.


Narnia 3 will get to $100M, but continued drops in the box office to the movies. #2 did about as much as #1 overseas, just not in the US. #3 hasn't gotten to the levels of #1 and #2 overseas, but that may be due to the rollout. A bit odd because this was a pretty accessable movie.

Yogi Bear was a bomb.

Black Swan is a sleeper showing legs. Right around $8M a weekend average over the last four, only below $8M on Christmass weekend. It could get to $100M, though probably needs to be up above $8M at least one more weekend, if not two. It also may get an extra bumped weekend or two with some big nominations.


John
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