The OtherArena

[Jeremy Billones]

First, to recap the April pretenders.

0422 $25M $47M Tyler Perry's movie
0415 $18M $37M Scream 4
0422 $16M $43M Water for Elephants
0401 $13M $50M Source Code
0401 $13M $50M Insidious
0408 $12M $37M Hanna
0408 $12M $32M Arthur
0408 $10M $37M Soul Surfer

Tyler Perry pulled in $6M last weekend, and Water $4M (with Scream at $701k). They should both break $50M but that's about it.

Then the YTD top 5

0429 $86 $144 Fast Five
0304 $38 $120 Rango
0415 $39 $116 Angry Birds ^H^H Rio
0401 $37 $106 Hop
0211 $35 $102 Just Go With It

Hop and Rango are done. Rio made $8M last weekend, should make it to $130. Fast Five made $32M, has a shot at $200M

Finally we have our first May open

0506 $65M $65M Thor

That's not Iron Man ($310M) money, that's Hancock ($227M) Money. At least it's not Hulk ($132,$134) money.

(I thought it was an OK film. I'd forgotten that was green lit during
Straczynski's period on the comic -- he has story credit.)

[jdw]

[jdw]

Thor pulled in $4.2M on Wed, which is pretty close to Wolverine's. New numbers to watch for Wolverine:

$3,471,337 Thu
$8,317,835 Fri
$11,231,427 Sat
$6,859,026 Sun

It was down under $2M every weekday the following week.

Clash of the Titans last year made $163M... that might be another interesting one to track the pace of Thor against. It was released in early April rather than May, so not a direct comp. Thor opened a bit stronger. Through their first Wed:

$80,725,835 Thor
$79,527,138 Clash

$150M+ looks pretty save barring an epic collapse. $200M still looks like a little work where Thor will need to flash a positive 2nd weekend.

John

[jdw]

2nd Weekends
$34,500,000 Thor
$26,408,288 Wolverine

Only dropped 48%.

Through 2nd Weekend
$129,032,435 Wolverine
$119,252,000 Thor

Basically knocked the $20M 1st weekend gap in half. Most of that was the 2nd weekend ($8M), but the weekdays were overall a positive.

The second weekend might not be a fair comp: Star Trek opened to $75M, while Thor had nothing against it this week.

Next weekend to shoot for:

$14,702,425 Wolverine (-44%)

Angels & Demons opened that weekend, while Star Trek stayed strong.

Again, Wolverine finished with just under $180M. It's doable, and a drop under 50% will keep it ahead of that $14.7M.

John

[jdw]

2nd Monday
$2,856,650 Thor
$1,975,325 Wolverine

Wolverine was -63.8% to Thor's -47.1%. Down to $9M back.

The shit hits the fan this weekend, though:

5/20 Pirates 4
5/26 Hangover 2
5/26 Kung Fu Panada 2
6/03 X-Men: First Class

Wolverine's $179.9M looks more and more reasonable. $200M... don't know. Holding up okay against Pirates would be a good sign, but Pirates, Hangover and Panda are going to be eating up a ton of screens in the next two weeks.

John

[jdw]

Thor vs Wolverine on Mon-Thu via boxofficemojo:

2,856,650 vs 1,975,325
3,090,024 vs 1,975,325
2,303,232 vs 1,705,242
2,200,897 vs 1,682,993

Knocked $3.1M off the lead, now down to just $6.4M back.

There really isn't any strong indication of collapse. -43% to -47% drops on the days from the prior week. Wolverine was -52% to -64%.

Had a couple of posts up the third weekend of Wolverine:

$14,702,425 Wolverine (-44%)

If it holds up against the onslaught of Pirates, it has a reasonable chance at getting to $200M since Memorial Day is coming up.

John

[jdw]

Third Weekends:
$15,455,304 Thor (-56%)
$14,702,425 Wolverine (-44%)

Through 3rd Weekend:
$150,993,169 Wolverine
$145,361,459 Thor

It's closed quickly from the $20M opening weekend gap, but the big drop this weekend might have signaled the end of a chance at $200M.

There might have been a greenshoot in there if the 56% decline was frontloaded into Friday with the opening of Pirates, then chilled out the rest of the weekend. It wasn't:

-52.4% Fri
-57.2% Sat
-55.6% Sun

It still could catch Wolverine and top $180M, but one probably would want to see a lot of the $5M gap closed this week and on into the holiday weekend:

Wolverine Weekdays coming up:
Mon: $1,425,181
Tue: $1,067,934
Wed: $956,416
Thu: $811,037


Hangover and Panda are coming on Thu, which should really drive down the Thu for Thor.

$135,634,554 Pirates 2
$114,732,820 Pirates 3
$90,151,958 Pirates 4

Pirates 3 didn't go a long ways past $300M ($309M), so one suspects that Pirates 4 might be a $250M instead... unless it's second weekend falls off even worse (-61.5% for Pirates 3).

Overseas, Pirates 4 was a monster.

There should be at least one $300M movie this summer. Pirates seems very unlikely to be one of them, so it's pretty safe that the Box Office champ isn't coming out of the first two major releases of the summer.

John

[Bob Morris]

I suppose we can take a look at candidates for the $300 million flick.

* Kung Fu Panda 2: First Panda flick made $215 million. Compare that to the last DreamWorks franchise that made it big, Shrek... first one made $267 million, the second one was a $400 million franchise, then the third made $300 million-plus. Panda did well at the box office but not quite the level of the first Shrek. I don't know if the buzz around Panda 2 will be big enough to get it to $300 million, and it also gets to open against...

* Hangover 2: The first one was the surprise hit of 2009. I don't think anyone expected it to get to $200 million, but it easily surpassed that mark at $277 million. If Hangover 2 gets a good opening buzz, it just might make it to $300 million, even opening against Panda 2.

* X-Men: First Class: I don't think the X-Men franchise has enough buzz to get to $300 million. I think it's good enough to get to $175 million, perhaps $200 million with good buzz, but not more than that.

* Super 8: You have J.J. Abrams directing and Steven Spielberg involved. I liked Abrams' work with the Star Trek revival. Maybe a potential candidate for a surprise hit like the first Hangover was if it gets good buzz.

* Green Lantern: You look at the Marvel side of things and clearly it's Spiderman at the top with Incredible Hulk probably at No. 2. Iron Man is behind both as far as comic book popularity goes, but when it came to the movies, the first Iron Man was a surprise hit with strong legs. Flip over to DC, and it's cleary Superman and Batman that get the buzz. But perhaps Green Lantern could be DC's answer to Iron Man. I'll admit I'm interested to see this one and will be looking at reviews closely.

* Cars 2: The first Cars did well, but I don't know if the franchise has quite the same appeal that Toy Story did. Plus I'm not certain if putting a storyline centered more around Mater is going to work... he's not the Buzz Lightyear as Lightning McQueen is to Woody. The Cars dynamic worked with a bunch of characters interacting with McQueen, while Toy Story centered on Woody and Buzz a great deal. Call me skepitcal about this Pixar release... and I don't think this is your $300 million franchise.

* Transformers 3: The big-name Fourth of July weekend release. The first two brought in the money ($300 million for the first, $400 million for the second). The third one is another contender for $300 million, even if I thought the first one sucked and that Michael Bay is far more gimmicks than substance. ;)

* Harry Potter: Part 1 of Deathly Hollows fell just short of $300 million. So the second part might just barely pass it, as Half-Blood Prince did. Or it could fall just short as DH Part 1 did. I do think it gets at least $290 million.

* Captain America: OK, so here's the candidate for the No. 3 guy in the Marvel pecking order... and another possibility for this year's Iron Man.

* The Smurfs: I don't think it will have enough appeal to get to $300 million unless it gets strong reviews.

* Rise of the Planet of the Apes: They tried remaking the original and it didn't work. Now they want a prequel? I don't see this as a $300 million franchise.

So I'm thinking Transformers 3 is the most likely film to reach $300 million, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Hangover 2 get there as well. Plus there's always a surprise hit or a film that has strong legs... if one of them really comes out of nowhere, we could potentially have three films making at least $300 million.

[Bob Morris]

Something else to put into perspective just how big the first Hangover was.

Most comedy films don't make huge amounts of money. It a comedy flick today gets to $200 million, the studio execs are turning cartwheels.

Recent comedy films that hold that distinction:

Bruce Almighty - $242 million
Austin Powers: Goldmember - $213 million
Wedding Crashers - $209 million

Now, consider these two films

Animal House - $141 million
Mrs. Doubtfire - $219 million

Animal House came out in the 1970s. A movie that did more than $100 million in that time period was considered a huge deal.

Mrs. Doubtfire was a 1980s flick. Surpassing $200 million in that time was pretty impressive.

This puts into perspective just how big Hangover is in terms of comedy flicks at the box office. It not only exceeded other recent comedy films at the box office... it belongs right up there in the discussion with Animal House and Mrs. Doubtfire regarding comedy flicks that are truly the cream of the crop when it comes to the box office.

[jdw]

I agree that Transformers is the "most likely" given what the first two did. The second, though, did seem to leave a bad taste. Perhaps that's overrated given it still did $400M. :)

The last Potter summer release did $300M, while 7.1 did just under as you mentioned. This is in 3-D, and it's "the end". Seems likely to get to $300M unless the series is entirely played out. Since 7.1 was just last Thanksgiving, that probably isn't the case.

Hangover 2 could be a phenom *if* it's as funny or close to as funny as the last one. Some of the bigger phenoms in recent years have been 2nd movies in a series:

$533,345,358 The Dark Knight
$441,226,247 Shrek 2
$423,315,812 Pirates 2
$402,111,870 Transformers 2

It's not always the case, but to a degree the first of those movies clicked with folks, and the second one hit the spot as well. Don't ask me about Transformers 2... I don't get that one. :)

Hangover had legs... people liked it, saw it again and/or told others about it, and it just kept going. This should open much stronger than the $45M the last one pulled in opening weekend, with the major kicker of Memorial Day Weekend *and* a Thursday opening to give it a monster five-day number. Hangover was at $52.6M after that first Monday... this one should be more than double it. Perspective: Hangover got to $115M in it's 15th day. This one could get there in its 5th day. If it's a huge opening, it could get there in its 4th day: by Sunday. At that point it doesn't need the legs of Hangover, but if it's as funny or as enjoyed, it's going to have enough legs to probably go real high. It really doesn't have a lot of comp in it's genre, so it can run along.

Panda is a hard one to judge. Real strong last time around, but even $200M was probably more robust than folks thought. It has zero comp in the kids animation genre across 4 weekends until Cars comes out. That's pretty surprising that someone didn't try to slip in there around say 6/10 to get a two weekend run before Cars. Panda is another Thursday opening, and has Memorial day.

Panda opened to $60M. This has that same 5-day opening. $60M + Sequel Buzz (rather than say Quality Buzz) + Thursday + Monday Holiday... doesn't it seem like this opens over $100M across the five day? If it goes well beyond $100M, those four unopposed by animation weekends *and* school starting to get out a few weeks before Cars comes along means its eventually going to have some nice weekdays... this *could* get to $300M. Opening weekend probably tells.

Super 8 is interesting as it has a long gap between it and its most obvious potential comp: Potter. I'm not sure the subject matter will super intersest young teens, but that seems where the cast is aimed. If it's a buzz worthy movie, it might have that cross over appeal to wide age ranges. On paper it seems like a longer shot at $300M since it doesn't seem like a slam dunk big weekend opener. We saw with Inception that despite really good legs for this era, it couldn't quite overcome a light opening of $63M to get to $300M. It would be interesting to go back and look at the $300M movies to see which ones opened at or below that level. Anyway, Super 8 would some buzz to build up to get higher.

The comic book movies... I just don't have a good read on any of them.

Cars did $240M on a $60M opening. Up was $68M and WALL-E was $63M when opening. Up of course had the great legs to get close to $300M while WALL-E topped $220M. I'd have to go back to look at the comments we all made about TS-3, but I don't think it was long after that $110M opening that we were bounding around the idea that it just might be a phenom. I'm thinking that coming off the massive popularity of TS-3 that Cars should open stronger than the old "normal" of $60M to $70M. My guess is that it will top the $240M of Cars 1, unless it's just a dog. I also suspect that it might be more actiony and adventury than Cars 1, similar to TS-3. If it hits the right notes on that, it might go very comfortably past $240M. Cars 1 was more storyish that some of the prior Pixar movies, a bit slower paced, and took it's time telling that story. I liked it for that, feeling it felt in with one of the major themes (time passing the town by). But there was also quite a bit of criticism for that.

I'm thinking Transformers and Potter are the "most likely" given the blockbuster nature of them. Hangover 2 is the non-sleeper that has strongest chance behind them to win the summer *if* it hits the marks in delivering the goods for the fans: there's a ton of good will from the first one. Behind that, Pixar is always a safe bet for it's base support ($200M+) with room to grow if it clicks with the fans as TS-3 and Up showed by both going far beyond what people expected.

Should be fun to watch how it unfolds.

John

[jdw]

Thor is staying ahead of Wolverines Mon-Tue numbers, and the gap is down to $148,325,194 vs $153,486,284. Wolverines Memorial Day number to eyeball, including Monday:

$9,910,686

Thor drops 600+ theaters, but Wolverine was down 700+.

Hangover II took in $10M+ in midnight showings. It's going to open huge. Legs could be a problem: Rotten Tomatoes has reviews down in the 30% range.

Brandon's summerforcast, which is a good read:

Extended Summer Forecast: 'Harry Potter,' 'Transformers' and More Vie for Top Gross

John

[Rian]

Hangover II is better than the first IMO. Some of the jokes you can see a mile away, and kind of a wimpy ending to Ken Jeong's character but I laughed through the entire movie.

[jdw]

From Mojo...

$31.7M "Thursday" for Hang-2, which includes the $10M+ in midnight airings. #3 Thursday opening ever behind Sith and one of the Matrix movies.

Indy Jones 3 did a $25M Thursday and went on to make $300M.

Expectations are $120M+ by the end of Monday. That might be a little low unless this is extremely frontloaded.

John

[Bob Morris]

Hangover 2: $86.5 million opening weekend. Add in Thursday's take and it's already past $110 million, Remains to be seen how strong the legs are, but it has a shot at $300 million if Monday's numbers are strong.

Panda 2: $48 million opening weekend. Worse than the first Panda. So much for Dreamworks having another Shrek 2.

Pirates 4 drew $39.3 million. Up to $152 million for the take. I don't know if it's got the legs to get to $300 million.

More from Box Office Mojo: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3175&p=.htm

On another note, Fast Five will make it to $200 million.

[Steve Yohe]

Pirates 4 is at 623 mil world wide.