The OtherArena Forum IndexThe OtherArena Forum IndexThe OtherArena Forum Index The OtherArena
"Best not to think about it. I know that's a problem for you... not thinking. " -Steve Yohe
 
 FAQFAQ   SearchSearch   MemberlistMemberlist   UsergroupsUsergroups   RegisterRegister 
 ProfileProfile   Log in to check your private messagesLog in to check your private messages   Log inLog in 

2011 Box Office Thread
Goto page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8
 
Post new topic   Reply to topic    The OtherArena Forum Index -> Entertainment
View previous topic :: View next topic  
Author Message
jdw
Site Admin


Joined: 01 Sep 2005
Posts: 17135

PostPosted: Mon Sep 26, 2011 4:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's getting extended because the rake is so much higher than expected:

http://blog.moviefone.com/2011/09/26/lion-king-3d-extended-theaters

I also see that Titanic is getting a 3-D re-release next year.

John
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
jdw
Site Admin


Joined: 01 Sep 2005
Posts: 17135

PostPosted: Mon Nov 21, 2011 12:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Shade under $140M opening weekend for Twlight 4.1, slighty behind the opening weekend of Twlight 2. Nothing surprising, this pretty much dusts off the last chance of someone knocking off Potter 7.2 as the year's king. A phenom would have to pop out of Christmas, like Avatar was a few years back. If there's one on the release schedule, I'm just not seeing it at all. Don't even see a strong $300M contender, unless Holmes 2 is amazingly better than Holmes 1 and gets major buzz going. Doesn't seem likely.

John
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Steve Yohe



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
Posts: 3073
Location: Wonderful Montebello CA

PostPosted: Mon Nov 21, 2011 12:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY is the film I'm waiting for. Hoping it turns out OK. John is that a movie you want to see with Yohe.

Can't stand the trailer for TWILIGHT. Think I'm going to miss it. Sleeping with vampires is gross. The illusion wares off & she has a corpse laying on top of her. (She goes "What happened to your dick??) And the guy with no shirt is sick shit too.--Yohe
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail
jdw
Site Admin


Joined: 01 Sep 2005
Posts: 17135

PostPosted: Sun Nov 27, 2011 11:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Twilight 4.1 is about $9M behind the pace of Twilight 2, the last Thanksgiving release of the series. That one ended up just below $300M, so it's pretty safe to project this one will be below $300M as well. $275M movie... maybe?

Muppets did $42M. Not exceptional, but folks seem to be pleased with it. Low budget: listed as $45M on Mojo. So if this has the legs to get to $100M, this would be a rather big it. Though the marketing campaign probably wasn't cheap.

Kind of a clusterfuck of kids movies opening this weekend: Muppets, Hugo and Aurthur. Don't know what they heck they were thinking not to space these out.

John
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Bob Morris



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
Posts: 2883
Location: New Mexico

PostPosted: Mon Nov 28, 2011 9:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Not sure why they didn't put the Muppets closer to Christmas time. It might have been able to carry over into the Christmas weekend. The Thanksgiving release means, unless it has strong legs, it could be out of theaters by the time Christmas rolls around.

Only family movie coming close to Christmas is the latest Chipmunks movie. I really hope my family doesn't insist on seeing it. The first movie was OK, but the second one was bad and the third one will be worse.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website
jdw
Site Admin


Joined: 01 Sep 2005
Posts: 17135

PostPosted: Mon Nov 28, 2011 11:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think they positioned it to get the Thanksgiving business, and were probably a bit surprised Hugo and Arthur dropped in there / stayed in there as well.

There isn't another kids movie until the Chipmunks on 12/16, so they'll have three weekends (Thanksgiving, 12/2 & 12/9) as the lead kids movie. That's probably what they're looking at.

I don't think they were seeing it as a $200M movie unless it turned into a phenom. That $45M budget indicates trying to make it cost effective, do decent business, and then also make good long term $$$ off the dvds (even with the DVD business going down). If it has some legs it could get to $100M. Let's say it has a "good" drop of only 40% next two weekends. That would be another $28M, which is $70M without even speculating on the two weeks of Mon-Thu business.

Is 40% possible? Happy Feet 2, which is kind of a bomb relative to the first one, had only a -36.9% drop.

I'm willing to bet that if it does $100M the studio will be jumping for joy. Happy Feet 2 had to have cost more than $100M since the first one did. $45M for a family film like that... cheap. Even the Chipmunk movies, which are done on the cheap, cost more: $60M & $80M for the first two.

Then on top of it... think of all the merch they sell for it.

It's a rare movie today where it can be a successful hit without going nuts at the box office.

I think the "family" movies that are around Christmas in addition to the Chipmunks as:

The Adventures of Tintin
We Bought a Zoo

Tintin could bomb... or it could be a phenom. It is Spielberg so you never know. It's done $200M outside of the US already, so who knows.

Zoo is getting a pretty big push. It's a really crammed Christmas schedule, so it could get lost. But in Damon & Johansson you have some reasons for mothers & fathers to take their kids to it. :)

John
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
jdw
Site Admin


Joined: 01 Sep 2005
Posts: 17135

PostPosted: Sun Dec 04, 2011 3:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Surprisingly big 62% drop for Muppets. Still finished 2nd, but it won't be getting to $100M. That drop means it will be losing screens as the holiday season kicks up.

In contrast, Hugo (-32.9% with a jump in screens) and Arthur (-39.1%) dropped a lot less.

I didn't expect that big of drop at all, especially since Muppets weekend was held down due to it opening on Wed and had $12M in the tank before the weekend.

John
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
jdw
Site Admin


Joined: 01 Sep 2005
Posts: 17135

PostPosted: Tue Dec 20, 2011 5:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Surprisingly horrid box office this weekend:

$62M vs $40M Holmes 1 vs 2
$44M vs $49M vs $23M Chipmunks 1 vs 2 vs 3

I mean... $20M+ down on each of them. Brutal.

Less of a surprise was MI-4 bombing:

$45M vs $58M vs $48M vs $13M MI 1 vs 2 vs 3 vs 4


That's not even the half of it, since MI-1 and MI-3 had Wed openings bled off $18M and $21M from their potential opening weekend into Wed-Thu returns.

I think we can finally say that Tom Cruise is finally over, at least in the US. The last two movies didn't get close to $100M, which he hasn't reached since 2006 and MI-III.

John
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
corrado



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
Posts: 4961
Location: LI

PostPosted: Tue Dec 20, 2011 5:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think the latest Mission Impossible was Imax only for the week, only being in 400 theaters. It opens in wide release this week. Its actually getting some good word of mouth.

Of course another reason for its success was the Dark Knight Rises Imax prologue attached to the movie.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message AIM Address
jdw
Site Admin


Joined: 01 Sep 2005
Posts: 17135

PostPosted: Tue Dec 20, 2011 6:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

You are right, Anthony. Didn't notice the small number of theaters. :)

John
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Jeremy Billones



Joined: 07 Aug 2006
Posts: 523
Location: Alexandria, VA

PostPosted: Wed Dec 21, 2011 2:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I blew $15 to see MI4 in IMAX, then got stuck in traffic and missed the Dark Knight trailer :p
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
jdw
Site Admin


Joined: 01 Sep 2005
Posts: 17135

PostPosted: Tue Jan 03, 2012 3:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Estimates through the end of the holiday weekend:

$141,214,000 MI-4
$136,514,000 Holmes 2
$97,359,000 Chipmunks 3
$60,011,000 Dragon Tattoo
$50,841,000 Tintin
$45,248,000 War Horse
$43,987,000 Zoo

Hard to tell where the legs are.

I confess to being surprised by MI-4. It's already topped MI-III, even without big opening weekend numbers (thanks to Christmas).

Holmes 2 is $30M+ behind Homles 2, so it's not getting to $200M.

Chimpmunks is $80M+ behind 2, so it's not going to get to $50M.

I don't know if Tattoo has the legs to get to $100M. War House is doing a big per screen average, and may get some Oscar run.

Zoo... looks like a bomb, and I don't know what anyone was thinking releasing it in this rush. There is some good word of mouth to it, so you have to think it might have done better in March or Feb.

Sad to see Tintin doing so poorly since it's a fun movie. It's non-US business has slowed down, still under $300M. Combined is at $311M estimated. If it gets to $400M, maybe we'll get the sequel(s) they were planning.

Others from earlier releases:


$276,095,000 Twilight 4.1

$83,649,000 Muppets
$60,922,000 Happy Feet 2
$50,164,000 Hugo

Not a great season for family films.

John
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Jeremy Billones



Joined: 07 Aug 2006
Posts: 523
Location: Alexandria, VA

PostPosted: Wed Jan 04, 2012 10:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

That MI4 is doing so well despite almost direct competition from Holmes 2
is surprising.

I felt that MI4 was the best of the four films, being the best blend of
action sequences (2 was best there) and drama (3 was best there, but
not all that good; I'm glad JJ made his mistakes there before Star Trek)
but I didn't think it would make the most money due to sequel fatigue
if nothing else (it might not, especially not if you adjust for inflation,
but it'll be a fair fight).
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Display posts from previous:   
Post new topic   Reply to topic    The OtherArena Forum Index -> Entertainment All times are GMT - 7 Hours
Goto page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8
Page 8 of 8

 
Jump to:  
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum
The OtherArena topic RSS feed 


Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2005 phpBB Group