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Holiday Box Office...

 
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jdw
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Joined: 01 Sep 2005
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 20, 2006 12:55 pm    Post subject: Holiday Box Office... Reply with quote

It's been an odd start to the Holiday season.

Happy Feet was the surprise early winner over Casino Royale, now with a $12M or so lead and growing. Since those two came out, nothing really has had an traction. Happy Feet spent three weeks at #1, beating back Deja Vu in the second week and the bombing The Nativity Story in the third week.

Apocalypto finally came along to knock it out of 1st place in its fourth week of release, but bu little over $2M. Apocalypto looks to be a bomb as well, though its budget will keep it from being a mega bomb.

Finally a second pair of "hits" came along last week - The Pursuit of Happyness and Eragon, both doing $23M+.

Pursuit is a mild budgeted $55M movie, which it seems likely to get to in domestic box office. It's Will Smith's weakest opening weekend since Ali in 2001, but to a degree that was to be expected. The budget seems to reflect that thinking.

Eragon was a $100M movie, and it's not going to get close to that number domestically. I think they were hoping to do more than a $23M opening weekend with the "Lord of the Rings December Release Slot" is was given. I don't think they expected the $65M that Narnia took in the slot last year, but you have to think they were expecting more... at least when they initially put the movie in that slot. Then again, Brandon Gray's "The Forecast" on BoxOfficeMojo had them pegged almost exactly right.

Charlotte's Web had the widest release of the three major new movies, and came in at $11M. Gray predicted $17.8M, which I think was a pretty modest number.

So far, no $200M big hit or $300M mega hit has broken in the Holiday season. Happy Feet and Casino Royale aren't going to get to $200M. Nothing that's come out since will. It's almost up to Rocky to get there.

In contrast, last year:

11/18/05 $290,013,036 Potter 4
11/18/05 $119,519,402 Walk the Line
12/09/05 $291,710,957 Narnia
12/14/05 $218,080,025 King Kong
12/21/05 $110,332,737 Fun With Dick And Jane

Actually, Dick & Jane was "disappointing" box office given its budget, and King Kong clearly was given its massive budget. But that's two colse to $300M, another over $200M, one that got to $100M as expected, and another that was a surprise hit.

This year, the surprise hit is Happy Feet. Casino Royale is probably the equiv of Dick & Jane - it's going to come close to its production budget, but not much more (and best to ignore the massive advertising budget).

I'd be surprised if Rocky gets to where Narnia and Potter did. But with the lack of any other hit out there, it might have the chance to get to Kong levels.

John
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Iron Chad



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 20, 2006 1:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Maybe I'm hitting the Yuletide Bong, but I've got a strong feeling Rocky is going to come in around Narnia levels, especially the first week or two. I didn't two weeks ago, but the buzz for this movie is strong and reviews are generally pretty good. I'm one of those people who went from no interest due to IV and V sucking to likely going out to see it this weekend due to Stallone's dynamic promo on RAW, er, early reviews.

Plus there are tons of folks in our relative age groups (Gens jd-W and X) that are huge Rocky fans and are pumped for a proper send-off for the Italian Stallion. I can see lots of families (especially those that are CGI'ed to death) giving Rocky a try, probably like they did with their parents years ago.

-Chad
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corrado



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
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Location: LI

PostPosted: Wed Dec 20, 2006 1:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yeah, Rocky Balboa should get the top spot this weekend. Its been getting positive buzz, and better than expected reviews (76% at Rotten Tomatoes) Another encouraging sign is that Stallone got a "Rocky" chant during his "interview" on RAW. The audience didn't laugh him out of the building.

BTW, anyone notice that nearly half the movies out today are released by MGM. Its like they release one movie a week now. No other studio does that. I've never seen a studio oversaturate a market like MGM recently.

Night at the Museum may do well but I think it'll flop a little. The whole concept looks corny.

Pursuit of Happiness should hold on quite well. Will Smith seems to be box-office gold nowadays. This is like his 5th straight #1 movie. I think Ali was his last disappointment. At the box-office. Very rare of a star to have success in most of his films. But Will doesn't do anything idiotic like other peers (Tom Cruise) He manages to have a cool head about everything. A positive for sure.

Sadly, since Happy Feet was a big hit, expect more CGI films. The trend will sadly continue.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 20, 2006 1:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I wouldn't be surprised if Rocky on 01/01/07 has more money than Narnia had after its first two weekends - $113M. With the Wed opening, the two holiday weekends (both extending to Mondays), and the weekdays inbetween being off days for kids and a lot of adults, it should get there.

After that, Narnia should chase it down.


John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 20, 2006 4:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dr. Frank's review of Rocky:

ROCKY BALBOA

"Watching “Rocky Balboa” is sort of like bumping into an old acquaintance you thought had died. You’re surprised that he’s ambulatory rather than underground, but may still be distressed at his rather flabby condition."
-Dr. Frank Swietek



John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 23, 2006 3:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rock has opened slow - $9.6M combined on Wed-Thu, and an estimated $5M on Friday. Total to date is $14.7M.

Night At The Museum opened on Friday to the tune of $12.3M, almost catching Rock in one day.

Pursuit Of Happiness slipped infront of Rock for second place.

Mojo had a forcast of Rocky at $18.8M for the four-day weekend.

I'm guessing the Chad and I were talking out of our asses in thinking this would be a $200M+ hit. With an opening like this, and with Night At The Museum taking the lead, I'm not sure that Rock will do enough in the coming week and the following holiday weekend to be on the path to $100M.


John
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corrado



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PostPosted: Sat Dec 23, 2006 4:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yeah, Night at the Museum will be the easy #1 this weekend. its doing better than expected and should be perhaps the biggest hit this holiday season.

Pursuit of Happiness has some legs. It may get Will Smith another $100 mil movie.

Rocky balboa is doing well, and its getting very positive buzz. Perhaps it will have some legs in the weeks to come.

I think though Dreamgirls may have a Borat-like opening next week and debut at #1 even though its in 800 theaters. Its getting Oscar buzz, and has a star-studded cast. It seems to be the favorite for Best Picture this year. So Dreamgirls should be around for quite a while.
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Frank_Jewett
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 23, 2006 4:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

A new "Rocky" movie is like a new "Journey" album. The first response is nostalgia for the good old days, but those good feelings quickly give way to nagging doubts about whether the good old days were actually so good.

Frank
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