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Box Office Thread 2012
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sat May 05, 2012 9:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mojo hasn't posted a story yet, but I see in the twitter section of the site a number of tweets that Avengers did $80.5M on Friday, the second highest ever to Potter 7.2.

John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sat May 05, 2012 11:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Perhaps more impressive on Friday:

$1,620,000 Hunger Games

It's up to $377M. Potter 7.2 on the same Friday did $689K, almost $1M less.

$376,647,000 Hunger
$368,929,574 Potter 7.2

Hunger made $7M more last week than Potter did in the same week.

At this point, Potter had about $13M left in the tank. If Hunger completely fell off it's current pace all the way down to Potter 7.2's, that would take it up to $389M. Except...

Hunger continues to be ripping Potter 7.2's pace. And it was #5 on Friday, which means that it's going to continue to bleed screens slower than some of the other stuff that's already dropped below it on the list.

I think it now has a Really Good chance to get to $400M. This is kind of the telling week, as if it pushes far enough towards $400M the studio is going to start tasting it, and they'll likely try to leave it out just long enough to get there if it slows down quite a bit.

A really amazing phenom of a movie.

John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sun May 06, 2012 10:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

$200,300,000 Avengers

That's the estimate, though it's counting on a $50M Sunday so it will be interesting to see how the actuals come in on Monday. Either way, pretty much a lock for $400M.

Looking at Hunger Games, it came in 3rd this weekend, which really does bode well for keeping screeens.

$5,700,000 Hunger Games
$2,564,370 Potter 7.2

$380,727,000 Hunger Games
$370,805,062 Potter 7.2

Potter 7.2 had $11M left in the tank. The $5.7M that Hunger Games made was well ahead of the $4.5M Potter 7.2 made in the *last* weekend comp, let alone blowing away this weekend.

Yeah... I'm getting real confident about it getting to $400M.

John
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Sun May 06, 2012 8:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The real question to ask about Avengers is whether or not it ends up with the legs that the first Iron Man had. Avengers is getting pretty strong reviews, as evidenced at Rotten Tomatoes.

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/marvels_the_avengers/

Strong legs means Avengers will easily outperform Hunger Games and that it could give Dark Knight Rises a run for the summer box office crown.

I'm hoping to catch Avengers later this week -- preferably the non-3-D version, as I'm not a fan of the current 3-D movie concept.

EDIT: Apologies for the double post -- thought I had stopped the first post from going through when I forgot to add the link.
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Jeremy Billones



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PostPosted: Mon May 07, 2012 7:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Much like the weekly economic data, that Avengers $200M will be revised downward in a few weeks :)
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jdw
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PostPosted: Mon May 07, 2012 11:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

They never get revised down after the "actuals" get released on Monday or Tuesday.

If there's any revisions, what they probably do is factor that money out of the Weekdays that follow and/or the second weekend.

John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Mon May 07, 2012 1:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Actuals came in at $207,438,708. $7M "off" is as big as I can ever recall the estimates being, but it's only 3%. For a standard strong opening weekend estimate of $60M, that would only be off by $2M. Still... I don't even recall any off by $2M. :)

John
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Mon May 07, 2012 1:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Box Office Mojo's report on Avengers:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3438&p=.htm

As John has already said, $400 million is a lock. Iron Man-type legs could mean $500 million.

There are some good points raised about the marketing campaign for Avengers. If you look at the numbers for the individual films for the super heroes presented, Iron Man is the only one that surpassed even $200 million -- and a lot of that had to do with the strong word-of-mouth for the first film, which led to many people wanting to see the second film.

Dark Shadows is the big one opening this weekend. It may do pretty good business overall but I could easily see Avengers winning the weekend crown.

To put it into perspective, Incredible Hulk opened at $55 million for its 2008 release, which is what I could see Shadows opening at. The first Iron Man, which had strong legs, dropped 48 percent from its first weekend, so if Avengers drops just 48 percent, you are looking at $100 million in its second weekend.

So it's certainly possible that Shadows could pull in a good opening weekend number yet Avengers still take the weekend crown.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Mon May 07, 2012 2:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

No one has done $100M on the second weekend, so I think that might be out. Here are some recent summer comps, ranked by % down:

2008: $158,411,483 --> $75,166,466 (-52.5%) TDK
2006: $135,634,554 --> $62,345,264 (-54.0%) Pirates 2
2007 $121,629,270 --> $53,039,992 (-56.4%) Shrek 3
20010 $128,122,480 --> $52,041,005 (-59.4%) Iron Man 2
2007: $151,116,516 --> $58,166,256 (-61.5%) Spidey 3
2012: $152,535,747 --> $58,551,063 (-61.6%) Hunger Games
2011: $169,189,427 --> $47,422,212 (-72.0%) Potter 7.2

I would say this has the word of mouth similar to TDK... but I'm not sure if quite the iconic hook that did (i.e. via the Joker / Heath). I don't know if the original Iron fits as a comp since that was a "first", while this is closer to a sequel of four movies which leads into folks who loved the first wanting to see the sequel.

A 55% drop would be really good as one can see about. That would put it into the $93M range. 60% drop might be more reasonable, while takes it into the $83M range... which would be the best second weekend ever, topping Avatar's $75M.

I don't see Dark Shadows doing that well.

I think Dark Shadows has had a terrific ad campaign, and great trailers. Setting aside whether it's a great movie or not, I think with Depp playing a character like that with those ads, this would have done a big opening at some other point in the year. This is a freaking brutal spot to be put in, and I haven't a clue what Warner Brothers was thinking.

John
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Mon May 07, 2012 9:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think a lot of movie execs just seem to be guessing when it comes to deciding when to release movies, unless they have a really good feeling about them.

So I guess those execs think Men In Black 3 is going to do big business, given that it got the Memorial Day opening. I personally don't see it doing big numbers, though.

Getting back to Avengers and Shadows, I suspect the movie execs didn't really know what to expect from Avengers, especially considering that not all the movies that led up to it were considered "huge" at the box office. The Iron Man flicks were the only ones that hit "big numbers," and that was thanks to the strong buzz the first flick got.

The first Hulk film was a disappointment, and while the second attempt was better received, it didn't catch on. Ditto for Captain America, considered a good film but with no strong buzz. Thor, a comic book hero who doesn't have as high a profile with non-comic book fans as Hulk and the Captain, needed to have an Iron Man buzz to do good numbers but didn't get it.

While I do like Joss Whedon as a director, I suspect the studio had no idea if the film would do that well... but now that it has, if a sequel gets underway, you know the studio will likely to try for a bigger weekend for its release.

Getting to Shadows... if movie execs don't have an idea how one film will be received, they probably aren't concerned about going up against it.

Now, of course, it looks like a bad move, but you know what they say about hindsight.

I do agree, though, it would have been foolish to debut Shadows the week after Dark Knight Rises, but I think the studio execs knew this, which is why you don't really have a "high profile" movie coming out the weekend after DKR.

Anyway... as far as the summer box office goes, it's hard to see any film doing an Avengers number until DKR comes along. Even the Spidey relaunch is going to have a hard time living up to Avengers' number, although it's possible Spidey could be a $300 million flick. But otherwise, I think it's between Avengers and DKR for the summer box office crown.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Tue May 08, 2012 4:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

TOP NON-HOLIDAY MONDAYS
$24,493,313 TDK
$19,418,139 Avatar (Week 2)
$18,898,999 Avengers
$18,140,271 Pirates 2
$18,043,081 Potter 7.2
$16,385,820 Avatar (Week 1)
$15,606,086 Toy Story 3

The items of note:

* All of those were Summer or Christmas mondays

The semi-exception is the first Monday of Avatar which was 12/21 which would usually be a day off for kids (Christmas break) but not for a lot of adults.

Of course Avengers yesterday was very much *not* the Summer nor Christmas. Very impressive.

* You kind of get the vibe of where Avatar kicks it into an insane gear

It starts picking off all the 2nd / 3rd / 4th / 5th week / weekend / day records. Right now, Avengers is killing it:

$226.3M Avengers
$93.4M Avatar

But Avatar would be up to $232.1M by the following Monday... then $360.2M by the following Monday...

$137,094,001 Week 1
$146,530,209 Week 2
$96,916,087 Week 3
$69,926,708 Week 4
$66,330,413 Week 5

Yeah, that's insane. It was at $500M in its 5th week.

Avengers will probably be up over $266M by the end of its first week, about $130M ahead of Avatar. Then... Avatar will just start grinding it down, much like Titanic before it was always lapped early by the megablockbusters before chasing them down and leaving them well in the review mirror. Even as great as TDK did, Titanic just chugged on past it eventually.

On the other hand...

It's going to be interesting to see if Avengers can get on $500M pace.

Through 1st Monday
$226.3 Avengers
$182.9 TDK

Good lead for Avengers, but looking back up at those numbers earlier in the thread and you'll see TDK shaved $5.5M off the lead on Monday.

$20,868,722 Tuesday
$18,377,288 Wednesday
$16,464,405 Thursday

TDK will shave more off there. Still... that was Summer, and this isn't. So there's probably could to be a backlog of kids and folks to see it on the weekend to the point that TDK's $75M could be topped.

TDK got to $533M. Avengers doesn't need to stay infront of it forever. Just long enough to head towards $500M, and then close enough where you can still project it getting there.

Too early to tell. The weekend will be big. If it stays #1 for the first three weeks (over Dark Shadows and then Battleship), it's going to blow past $400M... and $450M will be easy.

John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Tue May 08, 2012 4:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bob Morris wrote:
I think a lot of movie execs just seem to be guessing when it comes to deciding when to release movies, unless they have a really good feeling about them.

So I guess those execs think Men In Black 3 is going to do big business, given that it got the Memorial Day opening. I personally don't see it doing big numbers, though.


My guess is that this is what the MIB3 execs are thinking:

2002 - $190,418,803 - Men in Black II
2003 - $138,608,444 - Bad Boys II
2004 - $144,801,023 - I, Robot
2005 - $179,495,555 - Hitch
2006 - $163,566,459 - The Pursuit of Happyness
2007 - $256,393,010 - I Am Legend
2008 - $227,946,274 - Hancock
2008 - $69,951,824 - Seven Pounds

I'd toss out Seven Pounds as it wasn't really an attempt at a blockbuster. Some of those others weren't as well (Hitch and Happyness), but did damn good box office as well. Will was probably the #1 box office star in the US by 2008. He did good business before MIB2 as well.

MIB is sort of "his" franchise, and the second one did nearly $200M despite pretty much everyone thinking it was weak compared to MIB. The execs think Will + MIB + "Hey Maybe This One Is Good!" = $300M.

I think if one of the other major summer releases (Avengers, Spidey, TDKR) wanted Memorial Day, they would have moved MIB3 to another slot. But Spidey is by the same firm, and they seem to want to keep Spidey in either the Summer Leadoff Spot (which Avengers gobbled up) or the late June / early July spot. None of the three have ever opened on Memorial Day. Spidey took early July. TDK kept it's later July spot. Avengers took Leadoff. Brave took the standard Pixar mid/late June spot. There really wasn't another blockbuster to pus MIB3 off of Memorial Day... so there it went.

If it's close to as good as the original MIB, then it's going to make good money... real good money because there really isn't anything around to bleed from it.

John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Tue May 08, 2012 5:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bob Morris wrote:
Getting back to Avengers and Shadows, I suspect the movie execs didn't really know what to expect from Avengers, especially considering that not all the movies that led up to it were considered "huge" at the box office. The Iron Man flicks were the only ones that hit "big numbers," and that was thanks to the strong buzz the first flick got.

The first Hulk film was a disappointment, and while the second attempt was better received, it didn't catch on. Ditto for Captain America, considered a good film but with no strong buzz. Thor, a comic book hero who doesn't have as high a profile with non-comic book fans as Hulk and the Captain, needed to have an Iron Man buzz to do good numbers but didn't get it.

While I do like Joss Whedon as a director, I suspect the studio had no idea if the film would do that well... but now that it has, if a sequel gets underway, you know the studio will likely to try for a bigger weekend for its release.


I agree with all this... with the possible exception of moving it off the Leadoff Spot. That's a plum spot for movies. Going back a while:

1996 - $241,721,524 - Twister (#2 for the summer / #2 for year)
1997 - $63,820,180 - The Fifth Element (#10 / #26)
1998 - $140,464,664 - Deep Impact (#5 / #8)

I think Twister was just a phenom that people thought was fluke. The Fifth Element wasn't a potential blockbuster slotted into the position, nor was Deep Impact really.

1999 - $155,385,488 - The Mummy (#6 / #8)

I've posted on this before, but I think this was was the turning point on the Leadoff Spot. Action movie similar to the Later In The Summer Big Blockbusters but not as "Big" in expectations does big business. This was a lot of money at the time. After this it seemed like there was always an attempt to get something in here to draw.

2000 - $187,705,427 - Gladiator (#2 / #4)

Okay... perhaps that's an odd one to slot in there. :) But Hollywood can be slow on the uptake, and it also takes time in production cycles. See what's up next:

2001 - $202,019,785 - The Mummy Returns (#3 / #6)

Bingo. They rushed to make that one after the first was a hit, and slotted it into the same spot. And they gave some thought to Gladiator as perhaps another type of movie that can make money in that spot.

2002 - $403,706,375 - Spidey (#1 / #1)

Spidey leadoff while a Star Wars took Memorial Day... and Spidey kicks its ass. Leadoff goes from simply being a Made Man via the Mummy into being one of the Capos of the entire calendar year. People would build schedules around Memorial Day and Leadoff.

2003 - $214,949,694 - X2: X-Men United (#5 / #6)

Nailed it.

2004 - $120,177,084 - Van Helsing (#7 / #16)

There were high hopes for that one to be huge. It wasn't. :)

2005 - $47,398,413 - Kingdom of Heaven (#23 / #63)

Okay... Ridley Scott does his next movie after Gladiator, they try to recreate the magic, and it Bomb-Bomb-Bombs. I hope Yohe doesn't read this since the Director's Cut is one of his favorites movies of the past two decades. :)

2006 - $134,029,801 - Mission: Impossible III (#9 / #14)

It's placement isn't good, and frankly looks pretty fun when you look back and see what it did compared to the "disappointing" Van Helsing. But...

The prior two MI's did huge business. War of the Worlds the prior year did huge business. They thought this would do huge business. It didn't. This was the first movie that came out after all the PR tour around War of the Worlds helped turn folks on Cruise: the Oprah Couch Moment and the Brooke Shields Moment. This was a turning point as even the old trusty MI didn't save Tom from people just wanting him to go away. :P

2007 - $336,530,303 - Spidey 3 (#1 / #1)

Spidey III winning this summer (and year) was a surprise. Leadoff was back in form.

2008 - $318,412,10 - Iron Man (#2 / #2 to TDK)

And Iron Man totally reaffirmed it.

2009 - $179,883,157 - X-Men Origins: Wolverine (#7 / #13)

Mediocre business, but the X-Series was one that had a strong history of popping big opening weekends.

2010 - $312,433,331 - Iron Man 2 (#2 / #3)

Iron Man back, and knock another out of the park especially considering it wasn't as wildly well received as the original.

2011 - $181,030,624 - Thor (#6 / #10)

Thor didn't do huge business... and really wasn't a movie that should have been expected to because Thor really isn't a top drawing comic book character in terms of adapting him to the big screen. But clearly not a movie that was dropped in there to fail.

I wouldn't be surprised if Avengers 2 is back in that same spot. Marvel likes it for the Iron Man movies, and probably would like to claim that spot forever. :)




Quote:
Getting to Shadows... if movie execs don't have an idea how one film will be received, they probably aren't concerned about going up against it.


My guess is that they were looking at the past Burton/Depp movies, and how Charlie and Alice did nusto numbers. Alice... the worldwide money it did was just insane and impossible to explain. :) When the two have done that, execs probably think this can do anything.


Quote:
Now, of course, it looks like a bad move, but you know what they say about hindsight.


I don't read movie mags (or nor blogs like I use to), so I don't know what the buzz is. From the trailers and ads, to me it looks like a hell of a funny movie and Depp is in Captain Jack As A Vampire move. If it's "good" as in "entertains the crowds", I really think this could do $200M to $300M if it came out in March or Mid-August, though by that point there's a lot of burnout.

Quote:
I do agree, though, it would have been foolish to debut Shadows the week after Dark Knight Rises, but I think the studio execs knew this, which is why you don't really have a "high profile" movie coming out the weekend after DKR.


Everyone is staying away from TDKR, and probably are giving it several weeks to rampage.

Quote:
Anyway... as far as the summer box office goes, it's hard to see any film doing an Avengers number until DKR comes along. Even the Spidey relaunch is going to have a hard time living up to Avengers' number, although it's possible Spidey could be a $300 million flick. But otherwise, I think it's between Avengers and DKR for the summer box office crown.


I agree: it's Avengers vs TDKR.

John
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Wed May 09, 2012 12:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Regarding MiB3, I'm looking more at this:

MiB1: $250,690,539
MiB2: $190,418,803

And then consider this:

MiB1
First weekend: $51,068,455
Second weekend: $30,062,317

The first MiB had good legs following its July 4 release.

MiB2:
First weekend: $52,148,751
Second weekend: $24,410,311

The second flick didn't have the legs of the first -- in fact, its opening was barely above the first. And this was, again, a July 4 release.

And what about where they were after four weeks?

MiB1: $194,036,790
Mib2: $173,380,738

The second was behind the pace of the first and was out of theaters by September.

The first one, though, just kept pushing along, remaining in some theaters as late as November. It was still drawing $1 million in weekend numbers Sept. 19-21, whereas the first fell below a $1 million weekend number the weekend of Aug. 23-25.

That's a pretty big difference between the two films.

This is why I don't expect MiB3 to do big business. It's simply following a sequel that wasn't as popular as the first movie.

MiB3 will really need a buzz to have a shot at $200 million. Will Smith is a box office draw, but I don't think that will be enough to push the flick past the $200 million mark, given the numbers for MiB2 compared to the first.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Wed May 09, 2012 2:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

What may have MIB a decent amount was that it just wasn't a good movie. :) The first one was well loved, the second one not so much. I don't even think it had good buzz before coming out.

There's a bit of a catch-22 in what I'm about to say:

Will became a much bigger box office star *after* MIB2

Those were some of his gateway movies, but when you look at some of the big numbers he did after, especially in movies that you wouldn't expect to do big, he's pretty clear he got even bigger after.

The catch-22 is that he hasn't done a movie in a long time. Box office can fade, and actors "time" can pass.

If Will made this movie for 2009 release, I'd have a lot more confidence that it would do numbers. Now... there's the risk that Will's been away for too long.

On the other hand, I'm very confident that *if* it's "good", it will do numbers. I don't think there's been any strong anti-Will vibe that's built up in the past four years like the ant-Cruise vibe. I think Will still has a good vibe with his fans. it's just a matter of releasing a movie that they want to see / is "good".

On some level, I think Will might be playing it safe by going with a sequel to one of his hits. If it does well, he's re-established back on top. But I also think he probably waited all these years for a decent script as well. He always could have cashed in with another movie. Look at Depp with Pirates 4.

John
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