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Box Office Thread 2012
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 05, 2012 11:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bob Morris wrote:
Mojo's weekend estimates:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/

Total Recall will be filed under the "bomb" category.


Yep, add to the list of big bombs this year.

Quote:
TDKR has fluctuated in terms of how its daily box office has compared to TDK -- there are days in which the numbers are close and days in which the gap is a bit wider.


What's a little interesting is that its % drops are better than TDK from Tue-Sun with the exception of Sat. The problem is that it's dailies were so far behind TDK that it hasn't yet come close to equalizing, let alone topping, any of TDK's daily rakes. So it's still bleeding money, but the decline seems to be at a rate that makes say $450M+ very possible.


Quote:
Ted passed $200 million this weekend and the new Spidey passed $250 million.


Spidey is still getting its ass kicked every day by Transformers 1, but it also has a much better % drop. It may top it one or more of the days this week. It's $45M behind the pace of Trans-1, but it's very possible that the end gap will be below that.
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Kronos



Joined: 21 Apr 2009
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 06, 2012 8:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't mean this as an insult, because I do the same thing, but Why do we obsess over box office? This thread and a big one on DVDVR have regular updates and analysis.

It seems to me that the numbers are almost meaningless once you reach a certain point. Every year, they raise ticket prices, which further inflates the returns.

I could think of two reasons to care, from a fan standpoint:

1. If a movie in a certain genre does well, we're likely to get more of it. See: Iron Man, Avengers.

2. If a movie does poorly, it's likely to disappear quickly. And if you wanted to see it on the big screen, you had better hurry.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 06, 2012 10:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kronos wrote:
I don't mean this as an insult, because I do the same thing, but Why do we obsess over box office? This thread and a big one on DVDVR have regular updates and analysis.


Largely because Bob and I have fun with it.

Sometimes it's because it amazes us. Of course the Avengers stands out, or several years back when Avatar was a couple of weeks down the road and you're wondering if it's got Titanic potential. But also stuff like Hunger Games (which was truly a phenom above what anyone could have expected), or cool little stuff like Ted... or even seeing True Grit do business. That's fun in a good way.

Other times its stuff like John Carter laying an egg, or Sandler, or even Cars 2 from Pixar ending the $200M+ streak. It's interesting, and in some cases funny, and at times sad.

Just something we like talking about.

You and I like talking about the Mentalist... or I like banging my head against the wall on it. :P Don't know if anyone else cares... but that's what discussion boards are about: talk about different things that interest you. With some luck, you might find someone else who does. This is one that Bob and I enjoy. :)
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Kronos



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PostPosted: Mon Aug 06, 2012 1:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Fair enough. Like I said, it wasn't so much criticism as curiosity. I read these threads, too. :-P

I suppose it's not any different than following some athlete's stats. No one around here cares about such things, do they?
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Mon Aug 06, 2012 6:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

To add to what John has said, it's mostly us looking at what flicks could be the top grosser for the year, for a certain time frame and guessing what flicks could be surprise hits.

I don't dispute that increased ticket prices mean increased box office, but we also talk about the budgets movies have, which have also increased, and that brings up those flicks that bombed because they had large budgets and didn't draw enough at the box office.

I've previously mentioned Animal House and Mrs. Doubtfire when talking about the Hangover flicks and how the first two did massive business when they were released, so John and I know that $100 million was a big deal for a flick at one time -- but that being said, comedies in those days didn't have $100 million budgets.

But, as John said, it's just something we have fun keeping track of. It's not like we're trying to declare Avatar's number is far more impressive than Gone with the Wind, for example. :)
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Steve Yohe



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PostPosted: Tue Aug 07, 2012 3:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

As I've said for years, putting importance on domestic gross when all that counts is the worldwide gross... bugs me. But John doesn't want to go that far.

I've also been pushing the idea that being a boxoffice bomb doesn't make the film bad. The selling of the film has as much to do with it as the movie itself.

Example: Studio does nothing to push Brad Pitts' Jesse James film & goes nuts over JOHN CARTER or Colin Farrell in TOTAL RECALL. The major studios are goofs.

I was watching Ridley Scott's LEGEND a couple of days ago. In the voice over, Scott said a shot of a fairy flying around would have to be CG if done today (because of the studio) and it would cost a ton. He said they did the effect using a fishing line & reel with a light bulb on the end. It cost them nothing & looked better because you could the the fary's light reflect on Cruse's face. To do that today in CG would cost $200,000.

Yohe
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jdw
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 07, 2012 3:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Steve Yohe wrote:
As I've said for years, putting importance on domestic gross when all that counts is the worldwide gross... bugs me. But John doesn't want to go that far.


A - We do talk about worldwide gross

We certainly did during Avatar, and Avengers, and Pirates, etc. We also regularly talk about it when determining whether a movie is an overall bomb by tying it to the Cost of the movie.

John Carter bombed in the US: $73M. It did mediocre overseas: $209M. Given the $250M budget, and that the studios don't get close to all of that $282M in box office back, the movie was a bomb.

We do shit like that when it's need.

But when we're talking about Brave vs Mad-3 vs Ice Age 4 vs Wal-E, I honestly don't care all that much about world wide. It's also a bitch to track. Ice Age is fully out worldwide, while Brave isn't... despite being launch here.

Or put it this way:

Do you really care who wins the European Basketball Championship or the European Champions Cup / Euro League?

B - You're free to post in the thread about worldwide gross

:)
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Kronos



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PostPosted: Tue Aug 07, 2012 4:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

jdw wrote:

John Carter bombed in the US: $73M. It did mediocre overseas: $209M. Given the $250M budget, and that the studios don't get close to all of that $282M in box office back, the movie was a bomb.



What am I missing here? Those numbers come up to $282M, which is more than the budget. It broke even, then. I understand that means a flop in this era.

But I just don't understand how a studio can even think they would make a fortune on a $250M budget? Titanic and Avatar are the major exceptions, are they not? Is it enough to get them to keep greenlighting these massive pictures? I guess.
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Steve Yohe



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PostPosted: Wed Aug 08, 2012 4:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

"Do you really care who wins the European Basketball Championship or the European Champions Cup / Euro League? "

We would if they had better players & better teams. The over seas gross on films is topping the North American gross by a lots now. We are just a small part of the picture now.--Yohe
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Steve Yohe



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PostPosted: Wed Aug 08, 2012 4:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

They say that because of advertising & other costs, like making prints, a film has to double it's budget to get called a money maker. I don't believe the studios, they lie & cheat like rich Republicans. Why would a 250 million dollar film cost more to get out than a 50 million movie? A film like JOHN CARTER will sell a bunch of DVDs over the years too and make $ off TV. I think very few movies lose money after its all over & done. Studios play with the books.--Yohe
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Kronos



Joined: 21 Apr 2009
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 08, 2012 8:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Steve Yohe wrote:
They say that because of advertising & other costs, like making prints, a film has to double it's budget to get called a money maker. I don't believe the studios, they lie & cheat like rich Republicans. Why would a 250 million dollar film cost more to get out than a 50 million movie? A film like JOHN CARTER will sell a bunch of DVDs over the years too and make $ off TV. I think very few movies lose money after its all over & done. Studios play with the books.--Yohe


My not particularly-educated guess is that they try to show as much loss as they can to avoid having to pay out any percentages. Some actors and directors get points on a film in lieu of a salary, as I am sure do other entities. It's why RDJ made something like $50M for Iron Man.

From an accountant's point of view, wouldn't it behoove the studio to hide as much profit as possible to avoid paying him that $50 million?
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jdw
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 08, 2012 11:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kronos wrote:
jdw wrote:

John Carter bombed in the US: $73M. It did mediocre overseas: $209M. Given the $250M budget, and that the studios don't get close to all of that $282M in box office back, the movie was a bomb.


What am I missing here? Those numbers come up to $282M, which is more than the budget. It broke even, then. I understand that means a flop in this era.


What's missing is that $282M is what people paid at the theater to see the movies. The Studios don't get that all of that $282M collected by the theaters: they theaters keep a chunk... or they wouldn't exist. The general estimate is that the theaters keep 50% and 50% goes back to the studios.

$250M Budget
$282M Gross
$141M to Studio
$109M Loss

= Studio Head Fired

:)

Steve's point about DVD and TV is behind the times. DVD sales have declined for seven straight years, some of those years massively. I think movies have been hit even harder than say TV. There is a lot of hope for Blu-Ray to slow some of the trend down, but I don't think it has enough.

John Carter's DVD sales:

http://www.the-numbers.com/dvd/charts/annual/2012.php
1,035,347 units
$18,036,424 sales

It's Blue-ray was 60% of its opening week sales, so if that pace kept up, it did $27M in Blue-ray and $45M overall.

That's also "gross" sales before stores start returning unsold one. On top of that, Studios doesn't get all of those sales: a $19 dvd purchases doesn't mean $19 is going to the studio.

It's also possible that the studios take in less than 50% of the overseas gross: that there are more layers of middle men / distributors between the ticket buyer and the studios rather than just the theaters.

Anyway, John Carter was an epic bomb. It's not going to make a ton of money down the road to make up for that $109M+ in loss straight out of the box office.

John
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Wed Aug 08, 2012 2:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Getting the thread back on track, here is the "Batman Battle" at Mojo:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=daily&id=batmanvs.htm

TDK had more than $128 million left in the tank at this point but I doubt TDKR is going to get as long of a run in theaters. Still, TDKR will easily get past $375 million this weekend and should reach $400 million by the middle of this month.

I don't know if it has enough to reach $450 million, but $425 million seems like a safe bet.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 08, 2012 4:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yeah, the positives of the prior Mon-Sun stretch (which it did % drops that weren't close to and/or better than TDK) has worn off. Mon-Tue of this week it feel back behind TDK's drops. $450M isn't impossible, but it needs to hold well like it did last weekend.

John
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Sun Aug 12, 2012 12:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Estimates for this past weekend:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/

Bourne Legacy opened to $40 million, which puts it on track to pass $100 million without much trouble. Probably going to fall short of $200 million, though.

Campaign drew $27 million, which was a pretty solid number.

TDKR pulled in nearly $20 million and surpassed $390 million. It will hit $400 million by next weekend and appears likely to reach $425 million.
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