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Box Office Thread 2012
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jdw
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 13, 2012 2:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Final for Bourne came in at $38M, which is well behind #2 and #3:

http://boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=daily&id=vs-bourne.htm

$69,283,690 Bourne 3
$52,521,865 Bourne 2
$38,142,825 Bourne 4

The Sunday fall off was sharper too.

Every movie this year that opened with $35M got to $100M ($112M+ actually). However, once you get below $35M you run into a lot of movies that missed by a good margin. The second week will be interesting.

TDKR continues to get hammered by TDK: $26,117,030 (-38.8%) vs $18,979,397 (-46.9%). About $92M left in the tank for TDK, which would take TDKR to $481M... which it's not getting to. I think it's going to easily get to the $425 that you mentioned, Bob... $450M is the tougher one. $31M of margin now... I think it's going to burn through that.

Ice Age 4 is doing something a little amazing by jumping ahead of the pace of Ice-3 the last two weekends, and below its drops the last 3. It's won 7 of the last 9 days. The wins are relatively small this far out, and it's only shaved off $1.4M of Ice-3's lead. But it's an indication that Ice-4 has more than the $14.5M left in the tank that Ice-3 had at this point. That could take it up over $160M, which is pretty damn good after a weakish start and poor second weekend.

Ted up over $209M. Really hard to judge how far it will go since it's so far behind the pace of Hangover. But a $3.2M weekend isn't chump change. Perhaps $220M if it stays out a long time.

Spidey continues to get beat up by Transformers 1, which had $17M left in the tank at this point. Spidey is at $255M... I don't think it's getting to $270M.

Brave is ever so slightly behind what Wal-E is pulling in on a daily basis. Just under $10M left in the tank for Wal-E, so Brave gets over $235M but below $240M.

Mad-3 "peaked" against Mad-2 at $35.5M before Mad-2 hit its Christmas/New Years holiday run to cut it to $33.8M. With that out of the way, Mad-3 pushed the lead back up to $34.2M in just 9 days. It's small numbers, but gets back to the point that Mad-3 has more left in the tank than Mad-2. Well... Mad-2 only had $2.5M left in the tank, so Mad-3 doesn't have a lot left to push it much above its current $211.7M regardless. Probably not getting to $215M, but might be a semi-interesting small thing to watch as the Lorax doesn't appear to have closed just year and was at $214M as of 7/26. Mad-3 is about $2.5M up in terms of pace, but the Lorax had another $5M left in the tank. I wonder if Dreamworks will keep it out long enough to pull ahead. :)

John
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Fri Aug 17, 2012 1:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mojo's projections for this weekend:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3502&p=.htm

I had forgotten that Expendables 2 was on the docket. Mojo projects a higher opening weekend than the first Expendables.

Other notes:

* TDKR will break $400 million this weekend.
* Ice Age 4 looks like it will peak around $150 million. May be the last we see of the franchise in theaters.
* Bourne Legacy passed $50 million. If it has a decent weekend, it could push for $100 million.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 18, 2012 12:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

On Ice Age 4, $771M world wide on a $95M budget. It's made more money world wide so far than Brave and Mad-3. We'll see more of these. My guess is that they'll try to cycle it away from a summer with a Madagascar movie, but other than that... it's very profitable. They make these for less than a Mad movie or a Pixar flick. They seem to have been very budget smart through the series.

John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 19, 2012 8:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Summer is ending with a whimper, not a bang.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Mon Aug 20, 2012 9:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think we may be hitting the end of the road as far as any blockbusters go, barring any surprise hits during the fall and holiday seasons.

Surprised to see Hunger Games still in some theaters now that the DVD and Blu-Ray releases are out. Are there still "bargain theaters" out there?
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jdw
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 20, 2012 10:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Probably not surprises, but November starts the heat back upward:

11/09 Skyfall
11/16 Twilight 3.2
12/14 Hobbit
12/21 Reacher (Cruise)

There look to be a number of movies that might do some business in Sep/Oct:

* Taken 2 / Dredd

There will be a gap in decent drawing action movies by the time these come out.

Taken is far more likely as the first one did surprisingly good business, and Neeson has become a decent level action star: Unknown did not bad, while The Grey not as well but perhaps a tougher sell. Of course Battleship bombed, but I don't think any of the stink landed on him.

I think Dredd bombs, but who knows.

* Hotel Transylvania / Frankenweenie

Animation has made a lot of money this year: once Ice Age passes Snow White, 4 of the Top 10 movies will be animated movies. Brave, Mad, Lorax, and Ice.

I'm not sold on these, as ParaNorman just opened very weak. But they're in the "who knows" zone.

I have a feeling that we'll have one new $100M level movie between now and Skyfall.

John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 28, 2012 12:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

jdw wrote:
Summer is ending with a whimper, not a bang.


Boy howdy is that the case.

$13.4M Expendables 2
$9.3M Bourne
$8.6M ParaNorman
$7.4M Campaign
$7.2M TDKR
$7.1M Timmy Green

Lawless and Possession this weekend, neither of which looks like a Labor Day blockbuster. August basically got killed by Bourne being weak.

TDKR may get to $450M: it's at $422M. TDK had $44M left in the tank at this point, but TDKR is getting beat up by it. Maybe the Labor Day weekend helps it close the distance enough to make a run.

Bourne will get to $100M, but not a great deal past it.

Brave went past $230M, but surprisingly Mad-3 did more business this weekend. Neither has a ton left in the tank though.

One of the most staggering numbers: Ice Age has made $662M overseas. Maybe it shouldn't be staggering, since the last one made $690M overseas. Those would be #8 and #10 all-time. TDKR is at $519M with China and Italy left to open, so perhaps it will make a run at the Top 10.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 04, 2012 3:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Avengers had a big Labor Day weekend push, expanding back out to 1,705 theaters (+1,582). Results? $2.5M four-day haul that took it past $620M.

TDKR took in almost $8M, pushing to $433M. $440M is a lock, wonder how close to $450M it will get.

Brave had a similar push back out, taking in $2M up to $232.4M. $235M is a possibility. Ice Age may get to $160M, while Mad-3 is going to get to $215M. Spidey should hit $260M next by next weekend, but doesn't have look to have enough steam to get to $260M.

Ted's looks like it will come up a bit short of $220M.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 07, 2012 7:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mojo's Summer 2012 Winners/Losers

Good summary of the summer movies.
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Steve Yohe



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PostPosted: Sat Sep 08, 2012 4:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

When are we seeing Raiders? When are you home?
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jdw
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 15, 2012 12:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

A light late-summer / fall:

$102,193,000 Hotel Transylvania
$86,759,000 Taken 2
$84,496,000 Expendables 2
$51,442,000 Looper

Taken will end up #1 out of the group. Expendables is already dead, while Looper was down to $6M this weekend.

Nothing else has hit $50M. Perhaps Argo of the released movies will get there if it has a small drop next week.

Coming soon:

* This weekend: Alex Cross & Paranormal Activity 4

Cross books are major best sellers, but the earlier ones with Morgan Freeman weren't huge box office and they're a decade ago.

Paranormal Activity has averaged $99M a pop right pretty much in this late Sep / Oct time slot for three straight years. Perhaps hurt by Hotel Transylvania and Frakenweenie coming out earlier, but it does have something of a brand. You'd think $80M+ and a shot at $100M.

* next weekend: nothing

Seriously... nothing. It's pretty mind numbing how nothing of note is coming out that weekend.

* week after: Wreck-It Ralph & Flight

Another animated movie... who knows.

Flight is Denzel Washington, and his movies have done reasonable box office. I'm not sure which Denzel movie this would be like, as his recent vintage has been a lot of actiony movies. Really hard to predict.

* Week after: Skyfall

Okay... the winter / holiday season starts for real. I'm thinking that given how weak the release schedule is leading into it, and the advance buzz of the movie, that this is going to open up huge. The record opening for a Bond is the $67M the last one did, and no other Bond has even opened above *$50M*. Think about that.

Anyway, I'm going to go out on the limb as say that Skyfall might open with $100M.

The weekend after that is Twilight, which is going to do a $100M unless all the fanboys/fangirls are pissed off at Kristen Stewart and don't come out. Unlikely. :)

Anyway, the opening of Skyfall to me is the big one to watch.

John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 19, 2012 4:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Huge opening for Twilight 4.2:

$142,839,137 Twi 2
$141,067,634 Twi 4.2
$138,122,261 Twi 4.1

Twi 3 was a 4th of July opening so a hard comp.

It's a Finale, so maybe it gets to $300M. On the other side, it's only marginally ahead of Twi 4.1 which topped out at $281M.

Skyfall is blowing away the pace of Quantum of Solace, which was the #1 Bond movie of all-time:

Weekend 1: $88,364,714 vs $67,528,882
Weekend 2: $41,104,513 vs $26,707,945

Quantum had just about $60M left in the tank at that point. I think Skyfall has a heck of a lot more than $60M left. $250M is possible if it has a big Thanksgiving holiday.

Wreck-It Ralph has gone by $100M. I thought one animated movie in pre-Thanksgiving would get there, but Hotel Transylvania did as well so that makes two.

Argo is headed for $100M.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 21, 2012 5:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Twilight 4.2 remains ahead of Twi 4.1 on a daily basis but slightly behind Twi 2. That puts it a bit behind $300M pace.

Skyfall passed the last two Bonds to be the #1 Bond of all-time, and is a safe bet to get past $200M this weekend. On a daily basis it's beating the hell out of those two. It's feeling like a $250M movie, and I don't think Red Dawn (by the end of the weekend) will have taken a lot of bite out of it.

John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sun Nov 25, 2012 11:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Twi 4.2 continues be between Twi 4.1 (+$6M) and Twi 2 (-$4M). That tends to indicate less than $300M.

Skyfall keeps destroying the last two Bond movies, to the point that it's pretty much impossible to use them as a comp for where Skyfall is headed. $250M easy, but who knows where beyond. The gap between it and Twi 4.2 wasn't that huge on Thu-Sun, so it will be interesting to watch to see if it starts beating it at any point in the next week. It's $5M back, so if it turns things soon, it may end up beating Twi.

Red Dawn bombed... cool. :)

Lincoln looks like he will go past $100M.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Fri Dec 07, 2012 11:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is going to be an interesting thing to watch.

Twi 4.2 "peaked" ahead of Skyfall on Monday by $9,100,523:

$255,813,342 Twi 4.2
$246,712,819 Skyfall

Skyfall then finished slightly ahead of Twi on Tue and Wed, and likely Thu when the numbers come in. Mojo projects Skyfall to win by $2M this weekend, and possibly be the #1 movie of the weekend as well. So... will Skyfall chase down Twi at the box office?

I have a feeling it will. It's doing better per theater, and will probably hold onto its theater count better. Twi didn't really put up a big enough before hitting that peak gap. Or perhaps it's better stated that Skyfall got out of the gate well to have a big lead before Twi opened, then withstood the onslaught by doing business as Twi had it's own massive opening, then has show the better legs of the two.

The Hobbit will probably crush both... unless people find it to be a total dog. ;)

John
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