The OtherArena Forum IndexThe OtherArena Forum IndexThe OtherArena Forum Index The OtherArena
"Best not to think about it. I know that's a problem for you... not thinking. " -Steve Yohe
 
 FAQFAQ   SearchSearch   MemberlistMemberlist   UsergroupsUsergroups   RegisterRegister 
 ProfileProfile   Log in to check your private messagesLog in to check your private messages   Log inLog in 

Box Office Thread 2013
Goto page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9  Next
 
Post new topic   Reply to topic    The OtherArena Forum Index -> Entertainment
View previous topic :: View next topic  
Author Message
jdw
Site Admin


Joined: 01 Sep 2005
Posts: 17190

PostPosted: Sun May 12, 2013 2:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

jdw wrote:
Two sets of numbers to watch:

* IM-2 was down 59.4% at the box office on the second weekend.

* IM-2 made $31M Mon-Thu, a $7.75M average ($9.4M Mon down to $6.3M on Thu).


After smoking the weekday numbers, the weekend estimate:

$72,472,000 IM-3 (-58.4%)
$52,041,005 IM-2 (-59.4%)

It's $73M up on IM-2. It's a lock for $400M. It's will likely end up the #4 Comic Book movie of all time, between TDKR ($448M) and Spidey 1 ($403M), though with some legs might catch TDKR.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
jdw
Site Admin


Joined: 01 Sep 2005
Posts: 17190

PostPosted: Wed May 15, 2013 1:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

2nd Mon
$4,615,742 IM-3 (-59.0%)
$3,715,485 IM-2 (-60.3%)

2nd Tue
$5,161,138 IM-3 (-54.3%)
$3,565,064 IM-2 (-57.5%)

It's $86M up, and no signs of falling behind IM-2's pace.

Probably doesn't have the pace to get to TDNR's $448M as the #3 comic book adaptation ever, but that's the thing to watch at this point. It will blow by Spidey.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
jdw
Site Admin


Joined: 01 Sep 2005
Posts: 17190

PostPosted: Fri May 17, 2013 2:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

IM-3's % drop on Thursday (-56.7%) was above IM-2's (-52.1%), one of the few times that's been the case. I'd chalk that up to Star Trek getting moved up to a Thursday opening, pulling in $13.5M on Wed Midnight + Thursday airings. I think a lot of people still think it's opening Friday, hence ST's Thursday number not being quite a bit higher. But I do think it maybe pulled $300K - $500K away from IM-3.

Mojo is predicting a $100M 4-day opening for Star Trek, though it sounds like he's adjusting it downward after the Thu numbers came in.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
jdw
Site Admin


Joined: 01 Sep 2005
Posts: 17190

PostPosted: Sun May 19, 2013 8:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Weak opening for ST:

http://boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3686&p=.htm

Hard to tell why. The last one was well received. This one came out two weeks after Iron Man, which gave it some breathing room. I find it hard to believe that as competitive as next weekend is that those movies bled interesting in ST - they're not really in the same genre / fan base. I get the sense that the movie just wasn't sold really well. Never thought any of the trailers were any good, and the conflict / storyline wasn't defined.

I guess it will get to $200M, but a big drop next weekend is likely, and the battle for screens gets competitive.

IM-3's % drop was slightly higher each day of the weekend than IM-2. It still made about $9M more than IM-2, and more on the weekend than IM-2 made in it's entire 3rd *week*. It's at $337M, which is $86M ahead of IM-2's pace. Still going to get to $400M, though probably not get to TDKR level.

What's funny about the 10:30pm showing that Yohe and I saw of IM-3 last night: the theater was almost entirely packed at 10:05. Obviously it was a bunch of 16-25 year olds who watched other movies and were coming in to watch this one for free. I generally don't mind that, but Yohe and I actually paid for our tickets... and there's no way in hell we should have to sit "down in front" for a movie that's been out for 3 weeks, is playing in that many screens in my multiplex, and isn't bringing home the box office this weekend that would indicate "sold out at 10:30pm on Saturday". Pissed me off to no end. :)
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
jdw
Site Admin


Joined: 01 Sep 2005
Posts: 17190

PostPosted: Wed May 22, 2013 3:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It "feels" like IM-3 is slowing down since it's kind of neck-and-neck with Gatsby for the 2-3 spots behind Trek, but it's kind of relative:

3rd Mon
$3,206,057 IM-3 (-30.5%)
$2,215,378 IM-2 (-40.4%)

3rd Tue
$2,752,186 IM-3 (-46.7%)
$1,810,492 IM-2 (-49.2%)

That's another $1.9M on IM-2's pace while back to dropping at a lower rate.

It's $88.6M ahead of IM-2's pace, at a point where IM-2 had $57.4M left in the tank. If it makes simply the same about as IM-2 had left in the tank, that would put IM-3 at $401,001,620... so these last two days put it ahead of $400M "pace" if it simply matches IM-2 from here on out. Instead, it's pretty clear that it will top it.

$420M? $430? Lots of competition this weekend, rather than just One Big Movie being added to it and Star Trek. Might have some impact. But still... a holiday weekend. IM-2 did $20M on Fri-Mon for it's Memorial Day Weekend.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
jdw
Site Admin


Joined: 01 Sep 2005
Posts: 17190

PostPosted: Wed May 22, 2013 3:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

$98,446,262 ST-2
$93,212,090 ST

It's awfully close. ST-2 has an $9.5M head start with the Thursday opening. Mon-Tue were tight, about $500K in favor of ST-2.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
jdw
Site Admin


Joined: 01 Sep 2005
Posts: 17190

PostPosted: Wed May 22, 2013 3:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

BTW, the ease with which Gatsby will get to $100M... DiCaprio has some drawing power. Mojo pegged it at $100M in the Summer Forecast. It's getting there easy, probably on Friday, and has a shot at $150M with a reasonable Holiday weekend closing some of the distance.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Bob Morris



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
Posts: 2883
Location: New Mexico

PostPosted: Thu May 23, 2013 12:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Memorial Day weekend movies: Hangover 3, Epic and Fast and Furious 6.

I would expect Hangover 3 wins the box office crown, although I don't think the movie will have good legs. I'm thinking it has a Men in Black 3-type performance.

Hard to say what FF6 will do. The last flick in the series did $200 million-plus, but that one far exceeded the others.

Epic is the wild card. I don't think it's going to threaten to take the Memorial Day crown, but it will be interesting to see what its legs will be.

I suspect Iron Man 3 will do respectable business. Don't know what will happen with Star Trek. I have no idea how much fan crossover there is with that and the FF series.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website
jdw
Site Admin


Joined: 01 Sep 2005
Posts: 17190

PostPosted: Fri May 24, 2013 5:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

First Thu:
$31,610,367 Hang-2
$11,789,463 Hang-3

Ouch!

Hang-2 got to $135M by the end of Monday:

$31,610,367 Thu
$29,982,180 Fri
$29,690,008 Sat
$26,274,106 Sun
$17,480,581 Mon

Unless this was a case of people not knowing it opened on Thursday and it somehow pops huge today, Hang-3 isn't going to come anywhere near Hang-2's $254M. Starting $25M behind the last movie, when the last one was completely front loaded ($135M --> $40M 1st Thu-Mon vs 2nd = -70.3% drop out of the gate)... it's possible that Hang-3 won't even get to $200M. Well, Mojo looks to have called this one: they predicted $150M in the Summer Forecast. I think that the "brand" alone would get it to $200M, even if the second one wasn't beloved and the third one is getting bad reviews.

Perhaps it's time to simply think the original Hangover was just a total fluke. It's strange because the last time I stumbled across half of it on cable, I still thought some of the scenes were funny.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
jdw
Site Admin


Joined: 01 Sep 2005
Posts: 17190

PostPosted: Fri May 24, 2013 5:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

End of First week:
$108,827,000 Trek-2
$104,610,837 Trek

That's still a function of opening $9M stronger on Thursday.

Trek had a far less competative second weekend, with Angels & Demons opening... and Trek damn near beat it. It's Memorial Day weekend was it's 3rd weekend, rather than Trek-2's second. That will help Trek-2 with a bump on Monday, though (i) that will get lost the following week, and (ii) all that competition this weekend.

John
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
jdw
Site Admin


Joined: 01 Sep 2005
Posts: 17190

PostPosted: Sat May 25, 2013 7:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

First Thu:
$31,610,367 Hang-2
$11,789,463 Hang-3

First Fri
$29,982,180 Hang-2
$14,530,000 Hang-3

It's already $35M down in pace from the lat one after 2 days. Wow.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
jdw
Site Admin


Joined: 01 Sep 2005
Posts: 17190

PostPosted: Sun May 26, 2013 1:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

First Thu:
$31,610,367 Hang-2
$11,789,463 Hang-3

First Fri
$29,982,180 Hang-2
$14,530,000 Hang-3

First Sat
$29,690,008 Hang-2
$14,665,000 Hang-3


First Sun
$26,274,106 Hang-2
$13,200,000 Hang-3

$117,556,661 vs $54,204,000

$63M down in 4 days. Star Trek was right with it on Sat & Sun.

Fast & Furious is $12M up on the last FF, and will push that a lot higher on Memorial Day.

Epic is at $36M, which is behind the opening weekend of all the prior BlueSky openings. It remains strange why they chose this weekend to open.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
jdw
Site Admin


Joined: 01 Sep 2005
Posts: 17190

PostPosted: Tue May 28, 2013 11:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thu-Mon
$135,037,242 Hang-2
$62,051,829 Hang-3

Yikes!

Fri-Mon
$117,036,995 FF6
$92,430,005 FF5

$13m of that is from Monday. But still... a big $25M gap.

To date
$156,013,879 ST-2
$152,175,578 ST

$5M of that is from Monday, so they're essentially neck and neck, with ST slightly ahead before the holiday. Looks like this one has a close shot at $250M, though won't get much higher.

To date
$372,775,931 IM-3
$279,653,149 IM-2

IM-3 is still beating it every day. Still has a shot at $420M.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Bob Morris



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
Posts: 2883
Location: New Mexico

PostPosted: Thu May 30, 2013 9:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

So FF6 won the Memorial Day box office crown. Amazing how the filmmakers found a way to get more mileage out of the series. Who knew Rock was a box office draw? :)

Hangover 3's struggles should send a message to studios to not do comedy trilogies again. The first Hangover was a phenom but it's difficult to create multiple sequels out of a comedy and still do good business. They should have learned from Animal House and just let the flick stand on its own.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website
jdw
Site Admin


Joined: 01 Sep 2005
Posts: 17190

PostPosted: Thu May 30, 2013 10:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

$42,922,716 Snitch
$121,239,274 GI Joe
$48,781,650 Pain and Gain
$125,066,305 Fast & Furious 6

Pain and Gain had a $26M budget. It's going to end up over $50M in the US, who knows how much it will make overseas, but it probably will turn a profit when all things are concidered.

No budget listed for Snitch, but it probably was a similar small budget.

Joe was a $130M budget, but it's done $359M worldwide... that likely made some money.

FF6 was a $160M budget (yikes!), but is raking in money fast. The last one made $626M worldwide, and there's no reason to think this won't get $600M as well.

Rock may not be a draw on his own, but these movies are going to make Rock a going to keep getting Rock offered more jobs and money. :)
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Display posts from previous:   
Post new topic   Reply to topic    The OtherArena Forum Index -> Entertainment All times are GMT - 7 Hours
Goto page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9  Next
Page 2 of 9

 
Jump to:  
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum
The OtherArena topic RSS feed 


Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2005 phpBB Group