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Box Office Thread 2013
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Tue Jun 04, 2013 10:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Weekend results for May 31-June 2.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/

Massive drop for FF6 but $200 million is still a lock.

Star Trek 2 is now slightly behind Star Trek 1's pace. It's still got a shot at $250 million. Don't know if it will equal 1's $257 million but it's hard for the studio to be disappointed if 2's numbers are close to 1's.

Hangover 3 continues to take a beating. Maybe it gets to $150 million but no way does it surpass $200 million.

Iron Man 3 should pass $400 million this weekend.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 04, 2013 12:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks for dragging that over, Bob.

I don't think Hangover gets to $150M. Mojo's piece on the weekend box office was saying $120M might be more reasonable.

The Will Smith movie looks like a massive bomb. When John Carter and Battleship are being used as comps, you know it's trouble:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3687&p=.htm

Ouch! :)

Ray pointed to Now You See Me's surprising opening. That's one that will be interesting to see if it gets word of mouth and legs. You kind of hope for one or two of those a year just for something to keep an eye on.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Wed Jun 05, 2013 10:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I had overlooked Now You See Me. What's good about that flick is its relatively low budget -- it's not at the low level that Magic Mike was, but it could draw comparisons to Magic Mike, which exceeded expectations to begin with.

If Now You See Me were to reach $120 million, it would definitely qualify as a surprise hit.

The Will Smith flick indicates that it takes more than just a big name to sell a flick. I don't think Smith's drawing power is waning that much but it's clear he's no longer in the position to carry any flick like it used to be. Put Smith into a movie that's well received and comes off as appealing to viewers and his starpower can still work. He just needs the right material and cast to make it work.

ETA: I will note that After Earth didn't have a budget near the level of John Carter and Battleship. Those two well exceeded $200 million. After Earth wasn't low cost ($130 million) but it's not going to be as massive a money loser as the other two were.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 06, 2013 12:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Now You See Me is showing some decent legs: after a close #2 to FF6 on Mon & Wed, it was #1 on Wed. Way way way too early to think about the how high it can get, but this is a lighter week than usual for openings: The Internship and The Purge. It has a shot of not dropping much from its opening weekend ($29M) if word of mouth is strong. Let's say it does $25M, which is a -14.8% drop from its opening weekend. That's strong legs. That would take it up over $65M. If it does that, then it's got a really good shot at $100M.

Here's the thing: it has a $75M budget. So it might be a "sleeper" in terms of people not thinking it would be a hit, but it does need to make some money to break even. :)
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 09, 2013 8:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

FF6 and ST past $200M this weekend.

FF6 just slightly off the pace of FF5 this weekend, but is $33M ahead of the pace of FF5. FF5 has $40M left in the tank at this point. FF6 will get hurt by Superman coming out, and other flicks coming up. FF6 should get past $230M, but might end up shy of $240M.

ST2 is $9M behind ST1, and lost a bit each day of the weekend. Not getting to $250M, and might be a battle to get to 240M is it slows down a bit.

Hangover 3 continues to bomb. $103M behind Hang-2, and lost $10M to it just this weekend... and it's not like Hang-2 had legs. It's not getting to $150M... don't think it has even $40M left in it.

Epic isn't a big hit, but it's going to get over $100M... maybe $110M+.

Now You See Me dropped just 33%, passing $61M. It did good weekday numbers. Doesn't really have a lot of competition in its genre. Looks like it might have legs to get to $100M.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2013 9:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Reviews thus far for Man of Steel, at 60 percent fresh:

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/superman_man_of_steel/

Remains to be seen what forthcoming reviews have to say. FWIW, here's the RT comparison of other movies doing well at the box office.

Iron Man 3: 78 percent
Star Trek 2: 87 percent
Epic: 62 percent
FF6: 76 percent

Not certain if Man of Steel will beat Iron Man 3 at the box office unless moviegoers really like it, given that the buzz from critics isn't that strong.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Mon Jun 17, 2013 8:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Man of Steel draws $125 million for its opening days.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3693&p=.htm

Its $113 million opening weekend (the above figure includes Thursday screenings) beat out Toy Story 3 for the biggest opening weekend in June.

It remains to be seen if it has the legs of Toy Story 3, though. TS3 had just a 46.2 percent drop from its opening weekend.

Man of Steel will have no problem reaching $300 million. Its legs will make the difference between getting past $400 million or topping around $350 million.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Tue Jun 18, 2013 10:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Actual numbers are in for the weekend: Man of Steel pulled in $128 million.

Still remains to be seen what legs it has. Monsters University is on deck this weekend and Pixar movies generally draw well. World War Z could be the wild card.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 18, 2013 6:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It added a strong Monday ($12M vs the $11M that IM-3 did). But...

$185,412,195 IM-3
$141,266,491 SM

That is a big gap. IM-3 will go past $400M today (Tuesday). IM-3 showed some good legs in addition to the great start, really only taking a decent hit to IM-2's pace this weekend... which is natural with SM coming out. IM-2 had just under $8M left in the tank, and a wild guess is that IM-3 has just a bit more than that and may get to $410M. SM is going to need to have Really Big Legs to get to wipe out that $44M gap to get to $400M. But... yeah, $300M is a lock baring a massive wipe out this coming weekend, and $350M is possible. Reviews haven't been strong, and it's a bit hard to figure word of mouth. My fb isn't the widest sample to pick study, but it sure seemed like there was a heck of a lot more buzz after both IM-3 and ST-2 than SM.

John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 18, 2013 6:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

My favorite box office of the year...

Hangover 3 is up to $108,371,910. At the same point, Hang-2 had $20M left. However, this weekends lined up like this:

$10,071,339 Hang-2
$2,782,149 Hang-3

So it's just an ass kicking. Hang-3 might have $6M or so left in the tank. It's not getting to $120M.

In the other direction, Now You See Me is up over $80M on an $11M weekend. So it's getting to $100M.

The Purge dropped a monstrous -75.6%, which is the third worst of movies that drew $30M+ their first weekends:

-80.4% Friday the 13th (2009)
-76.2% The Devil Inside
-75.6% The Purge
-72.8% Bruno
-72.3% A Nightmare on Elm Street (2010)

Some of the Potter and Twilight movies are high on the list for $30M+ movies, but they also have massive frontloaded anticipation, and also make a boatload of money. These obviously didn't get to $100M. :)

Epic is cruising to $100M.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Thu Jun 20, 2013 1:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mojo is doing a comparison of Man of Steel to the first Spidey.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=daily&id=originshow.htm

It's slightly ahead of the first Spidey's pace. That flick surpassed $400 million.

Spidey, though, had a mere 37 percent drop from its opening weekend to its second weekend.

Hard to say whether or not Man of Steel will have those legs. It's not getting the same buzz as the first Spidey did. Plus it was Spiderman's big-screen debut, whereas we've seen Superman done before on the big screen. I tend to think the first-ever "big screen" Spidey flick was part of that flick's appeal.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 20, 2013 5:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Spidey was also in the Leadoff Spot: first weekend of May. So those initial Mon-Thu numbers for Spidey were school days, and just insane at the time. Supe are summer days, with kids out of school. And like you say... Spidey had monster legs for the era.

Spidey 3, which was also in the Leadoff Spot, was at $176,161,954 at this point. It topped out at $336M.

$350M would be pretty terrific for Supe.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sat Jun 22, 2013 8:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

$12.7M Friday for SM, compared to $19.9M second Friday for Spidey 1. Spidey 1 did that insane $30.5M second Sat and $21M second Sun, so SM is going see it's lead over SM vanish by the end of the weekend (it's down to $10M after Friday).

We can toss the chances of SM getting to $400M. The one to watch is how well it holds up it's $40M lead over the strong legs of Iron Man 1:

http://boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=daily&id=originshow.htm

Spidey 3 can be found here:

http://boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=daily&id=spidermanvs.htm

$199M by this point, and a much better second Sunday. I think the $336M that Spidey 3 bagged is out as well.

Maybe a better comp is the more frontloaded IM-2 for which the dailes can be found here:

http://boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=daily&id=clangingmetal.htm

Just a $7M lead for SM there, and is getting beat this weekend. Still has the advantage of summer weekdays vs school weekdays. IM-2 capped at $312M.

$300M looks in play, but if it gets there, not sure how much beyond.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Sun Jun 23, 2013 9:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Weekend estimates:

Monsters University: $82 million
World War Z: $66 million
Man of Steel: $41.2 million

64.7 percent drop for MoS. Ouch!

MoS may have a problem reaching $350 million now.

MU and WWZ have realistic shots at $200 million. Depends on their second weekends, before they run into Despicable Me 2 and Lone Ranger.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 23, 2013 2:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

MU is a total lock for $200M. Second highest Pixar opening of all-time by $12M. It's $16M above what Brave did last year, and Brave got to $233M. I think the second weekend will tell us if it's getting to $250M or is a frontloaded movie that gets to say $210M. Cars 2 opened $16M less last year, was frontish loaded... and got to $191M. So if MU just matches Cars 2 (which had poor legs), it's close to $210M. If it matches Brave, which wasn't exactly off the charts, it's up at $250M.

If it does a strong second weekend, we're talking Up levels of money.

Up's legs are here:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=up.htm

What's interesting about Up is those first two sets of weekdays were when school was in for a lot of kids. MU is going to be pulling in Summer weekdays. My thought is that if it tops Up's second weekend that it has a shot at $300M given typical Pixar legs.

$44M Up
$34M Brave
$26M Cars 2

A drop off to Brave or Cars level would be a massive drop... which seems unlikely.

Up finished its second weekend at $137M. That's probably the number to watch for. I don't think MU will have quite the legs that Up did, but it might get out of the gate through the first two weekends quite a bit ahead of it. Brave, for example, was at $131M after its second weekend, then still bagged another $100M with legs that no one really thought was a phenom like Up was.

John
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