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Box Office Thread 2013
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jdw
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Joined: 01 Sep 2005
Posts: 17196

PostPosted: Tue Jun 25, 2013 4:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

First Monday (date):

$15,606,086 TS-3 (6/21)
$11,019,202 Monsters U (6/24)
$8,948,171 Brave (6/25)
$8,913,286 WAL-E (6/30)
$6,958,490 Cars 2 (6/27)
$6,271,151 Up (6/1)

Two things to keep in mind:

* Up was a late May release, so it's first Monday was June 1... when Schools were still in. All the rest are late June.

* Toy Story 3 was a phenom

Which we all know and remember.

That $6.9M was also the first sign that Cars 2 might have issues.

Anyway, that $11M is a HUGE number for a Pixar movie. Brave is a movie that got to $237M. It was at $75M at this point. MU is almost $20M up on that at $93M. It's likely to do a stronger second weekend, probably will top it Tue-Thu as well. I'm not sure it's going to be $40M up on Brave by the end of next weekend... but it's going to be $30M+ up.

Not yet ready to call it a phenom with a chance at $300M, but it's off to a good start if it has typical Pixar legs.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 27, 2013 12:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

First Monday (date):

$15,606,086 TS-3 (6/21)
$11,019,202 Monsters U (6/24)
$8,948,171 Brave (6/25)
$8,913,286 WAL-E (6/30)
$6,958,490 Cars 2 (6/27)
$6,271,151 Up (6/1)


First Tuesday (date):

$15,123,212 TS-3 (6/22)
$11,848,064 Monsters U (6/25)
$8,926,775 Brave (6/26)
$7,601,082 WAL-E (7/1)
$7,089,413 Cars 2 (6/28)
$6,405,897 Up (6/2)


First Wednesday (date):

$13,458,691 TS-3 (6/23)
$10,036,422 Monsters U (6/26)
$6,834,139 Brave (6/27)
$6,709,436 WAL-E (7/2)
$6,116,646 Up (6/3)
$5,540,193 Cars 2 (6/29)

Through first Wed:

$115,333,157 MU
$91,032,679 Brave

It's outperforming Brave by this much each day:

$5,837,763 Fri
$5,051,876 Sat
$5,216,236 Sun
$2,071,031 Mon
$2,921,289 Tue
$3,202,283 Wed
$24,300,478 Total

Brave did a $6,641,012 on it's first Thu, which MU will top.


This is an exceptional opening week for MU. Again, that's against a movie that had legs to get to $237M.

John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 30, 2013 7:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

2nd Weekend
$46,180,000 MU (-44.0%)
$44,138,266 Up (-35.2%)
$34,094,643 Brave (-48.6%)
$32,509,203 WAL-E (-48.5%)
$26,273,387 Cars 2 (-60.3%)

% drop beats up Brave, Cars 2 and WAL-E. It's below Up.

However:

Through 2nd Weekend
$171,006,000 MU
$137,210,701 Up
$131,768,334 Brave
$127,196,028 WAL-E
$117,204,002 Cars 2

That's a big gap on Up. In turn, Brave had $105M+ left in the tank. WAL-E had $90M+ left in the tank. MU is beating those up big. So it's going to go past $275M with ease unless there's a huge drop off beyond what we're seeing. It likely has a good deal more than Brave's $105M left. I think over a 50% chance of getting to $300M.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 02, 2013 3:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

2nd Monday
$7,898,760 MU (-28.3%)
$5,388,123 Brave (-39.8%)
$5,356,308 Cars 2 (-23%)
$4,705,586 Up (-25%) *
$4,505,549 WAL-E (-49.5%)

* late May release - not Summer Weekdays comperable

Okay... this thing is a Phenom. No signs of slowing down to Brave's pace. Despicable Me 2 will take a bite out of it, but other Pixar movies have had animated hits come out after their release and still shown legs.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 02, 2013 5:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is one that's going to be fun to watch:

2nd Weekend
$45,607,745 MU
$41,287,206 MoS

2nd Monday
$7,898,760 MU
$4,537,163 MoS

Through 2nd Mon
$214,615,316 Man of Steel
$178,331,953 Monsters U

It's a $36,283,363 gap, but it peaked at $47,817,820 on the 1st Monday. In a week, MU has shaved $11.5M+ off that gap.

MOS isn't dead yet: a $20M weekend, it will likely do fine on the extended Holiday weekend coming up, so it still has a chance at $300M. But even if it falls short, MU is gaining on it fast.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 02, 2013 8:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bob - something we didn't talk about... looks like White House Down is a bomb. Opened #4, midway between World War Z (in it's 2nd week) and MoS (in it's 3rd)... and actually closer to MoS. No chance at $100M, and stuff like the Long Ranger is going to kill it this weekend. I think this joins After Earth as our Major Bomb leaders of the first half of summer:

Opening Weekend
$27,520,040 After Earth
$24,852,258 White House Down

The drops for After Earth have been epic:

http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=1000ae.htm

Usually after you take a 60%+ drop, you level off a bit. After Earth just kept dropping 60% (or worse) week after week, and lost theaters left and right. WHD could do the same.
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Bob Morris



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
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Location: New Mexico

PostPosted: Wed Jul 03, 2013 6:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I hadn't even paid attention to White House Down. Concept just seemed too far fetched. Not surprising it bombed.

MoS is going to be considered a mild disappointment. I don't think the studio was expecting an Avengers-type performance but I think they were hoping for $350 million and the type of buzz that Batman Begins received. Neither is happening.

MU is definitely headed to $300 million. I do believe, though, that Despicable Me 2 will cut into it enough that MU probably won't catch Finding Nemo ($339 million). Passing Up, though, is a slight surprise, given how much buzz surrounded Up, whereas MU was a film critics liked but didn't tout highly as they did with Up.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 04, 2013 11:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mojo indicated an insanely huge $34M opening Wed for Despicable Me 2. Yow!

Just under $10M for Lone Ranger.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 05, 2013 1:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

$24.5M on the 4th for DM2.

LR in that same range of a shade under $10M. Mojo was predicting a $60M five-day from LR.

John
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Fri Jul 05, 2013 8:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

According to Mojo, Universal expected $100 million for DM2 through the weekend, but "early reports" indicated it would be $130 million.

If it hits that number and has legs, we will have another phenom on our hands.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 06, 2013 4:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Another $30M on Friday, up to an estimated $89M. Looks like it's going to go safely past $130M. Pretty epic. Looks like a lock for $300M, and could go massively past it.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 07, 2013 7:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=daily&id=animationleaders.htm

Through first Sunday:
$142,076,000 DM2
$128,983,060 Shrek 2
$122,536,609 Shrek 3
$110,307,189 TS3

It's hard to read a ton into that. Shrek 3 was frontloaded, "only" getting to $322M. Shrek 2 had Pixar style legs, in fact it beat TS3 in most weeks other than the first week. TS3 still had great legs, and a bonkers Mon-Thu.

These are monster second weekends to chase:

$72,170,363 Shrek 2
$59,337,669 TS3
$53,039,992 Shrek 3

Shrek 2's was insane, and DM2 won't get close to it. The ones to watch are the other two. MU did a $45M second weekend, which would be very impressive for DM2 to top / get to.

I just don't see DM2 getting to $400M, even with the monster opening. Whether it has the legs to $350M will be interesting. That's basically staying ahead of Shrek 3's pace. It has a $20M lead on Shrek 3. It has the advantage of Summer Weekdays rather than Shrek 3 coming out prior to Memorial Day and having some School Weekdays early.

MU took a big hit, down to $19.5M weekend. It's at $216M. Brave had $63M left in the tank. MU is still beating Brave pretty much every day, with the losses pretty much DM2's opening impacting it. I think once the opening rush is over, MU probably will still keep beating Brave most of the time. Matching Brave gets it to $280M. I think it might do better than match, and just how much determines if it can get to $300M.

And yeah... Lone Ranger is quite a bomb. :) On paper, it won't be quite the bomb that John Carter was: that was more expensive, and this will make more money. But this was Depp and Bruckheimer, Elliott & Rossio. Four major names attached to a bomb. That's pretty huge.

The Heat is one of the sleeper hits of the summer. Small weekend drop, up to $86M, will sail by $100M in no time, and looks like it might get to $150M. Chalk up another hit for Bullock.

Amazingly light drop for WWZ and respectable one for MoS. Actually, White House Down dropped less than I thought it would. Still, it looks like it will take in less than Lone Ranger, so that's a bomb. The other two look like they've got some legs left in them.

Really interesting summer.
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Midline Shift



Joined: 22 Apr 2010
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 08, 2013 7:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Amazingly light drop for WWZ


I caught WWZ this weekend and was shocked at how packed the theater was. We could barely find two seats together; there were ushers coming in trying to rearrange people to keep groups together. Pretty surprising for a film that's been out for a couple weeks.

Also saw DM2 and even though it was the late showing the theater was jam packed with kids and their parents. Not at all surprised to see it's a big hit.


Simon
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Tue Jul 09, 2013 9:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

DM2 could easily win the weekend box office crown again, given that its strongest competition coming up is Grown Ups 2.

At this point, it looks like Iron Man 3 will win the summer box office crown, unless The Wolverine becomes a phenom. It should at least have better writing and directing than the Wolverine Origins movie did.

I caught the Origins movie on cable -- bad writing, confusing plot and subpar directing. I know not everyone here is a Hugh Jackman fan but he was actually the bright spot about that flick.

I guess we'll find out if the stink of Origins have any effect on the latest Wolverine flick.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 09, 2013 10:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Midline Shift wrote:
Quote:
Amazingly light drop for WWZ


I caught WWZ this weekend and was shocked at how packed the theater was. We could barely find two seats together; there were ushers coming in trying to rearrange people to keep groups together. Pretty surprising for a film that's been out for a couple weeks.


I think we're seeing a lot more these days of people sneaking from one movie to the next. Sure, we did that when we were kids. But it's insane these days. Yohe and I have gone to movies several weeks after they're out and the joint is totally packed and we're "down in front" even though we paid for tickets. You look at the crowd and it's the type that a movie draws with a $30M+ weekend (given a reduction in screens), and then on Monday you see the movie did $15M on the weekend. In general I don't mind folks sneaking. But it's happened when Yohe and I got to a theater 25 minutes before the listed "start time" (start time meaning when the trailers start)... and that just cheeses me off. :)

But I digress. :P

John
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