The OtherArena

[jdw]

Yep... big 60%+ drop to Spidey. Though the last three Marvels weren't far off:

-61.2% AS2
-58.4% Iron Man 3
-57.3% Thor 2
-56.6% Cap 2

Through the second weekends:

$158,883,032 Cap 2
$146,201,934 AS2
$145,097,130 Thor 2

Thor 2 got to $206M, hitting $200M on its 7th weekend (12-22-13 which started the long holiday weeks).

Spidey has schools closing coming up, and it looks like a really weak summer set of movies. $200M is still something it should punch.

John

[jdw]

2nd Monday
$3,462,915 Cap 2
$2,254,152 AS 2
$2,209,623 Thor 2

Through 2nd Monday
$162,345,947 Cap 2
$148,456,086 AS 2
$147,306,753 Thor 2

So it's still pretty much tracking Thor 2.

Thor 2 dropped down to $14,196,302 it's 3rd weekend, a big 61% drop. Cap 2 was 38% and IM3 was 50%. That seems to be the thing to keep an eye on for Spidey: if it eats another 60% drop, or if it's 3rd week is something closer to IM3's 50%. These movies will often take a big drop in the 2nd weekend when they're really frontloaded, but then decline at a less rapid pace after that as the folks who skipped the first weekend take their time in seeing it. Thor 2 was 58/61 drops in the 2nd/3rd weekends, not great word of mouth, and pretty front loaded.

John

[Bob Morris]

Mojo's forecast: $73 million for Godzilla:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3843&p=.htm

As of Wednesday, CapAm 2 is past $246 million. Will be interesting to see if it can pass $250 million after this weekend.

[jdw]

$246,868,246 as of Thursday, needs a shade over $3.1M. It was real close to IM3's weekend last week. IM3 took in $2.96M on it's 7th weekend... so Cap might come up a bit short. It will get there soon, and it feels like it might have close to $10M left.

[jdw]

Godzilla a monster at an estimated $93.2M per Mojo. $200M+ movie easy baring a total collapse over the Memorial Day Weekend.

* * * * *

On Spidey:

$25,587,056 Cap 2 (-38%)
$16,800,000 AS2 (-52.7%)
$14,196,302 Thor 2 (-61.2%)

$200,501,510 Cap 2
$172,170,000 AS2
$167,917,123 Thor 2

I think it remains well placed to get to $200M. It's not going a long ways past, but staying ahead of Thor 2 both overall, on the weekend and in the % drop is a pretty decent indication that it has enough steam to get there. It was still pulling in an average of $2M+ a day on Mon-Thu last week. That still should be on average $1M or so this week, which will take it over $175M by Thursday. It will bag probably $10M+ over the four-day weekend... then it's easy walk slowly past $200M.

* * * * *

Cap 2 went past $250M. It will pass Lego over the Holiday to be the #1 movie of the year. How long it hold the title depends on X-Men, How to Train Your Dragon 2, Transformers... and maybe Godzilla if it holds up.

John

[Bob Morris]

So catching up on where we left off... the top movies so far.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/yearly/chart/?yr=2014&p=.htm

* Guardians of the Galaxy: This was very much like the first Iron Man. Good opening and then strong legs. Still in a few theaters and could get to $330 million before it's finally pulled.

* CapAm 2: Topped at $259 million, so it's easy to see why the third movie is going to get the early May release. A good buzz for Avengers 2, and the news that they want Downey in CapAm 3, could make the third installment a $300 million movie.

* Lego Movie: Finished at $257 million. Warner has already got a Lego Batman movie on tap and you would think they'd want a general sequel to this as well.

* Transformers, Age of Extinction: $245 million, so Mojo's comparison to the Pirates of the Caribbean series was sound. They'll no doubt crank out another Transformers movie because it's popular in China, but if the next one's domestic box office goes down, you have to wonder how much longer the franchise will last.

* Maleficient: A surprise hit, as it pulled in $240 million when it wasn't viewed as a film that would measure up to other projected blockbusters.

* X-Men, Days of Future Past: $233 million, better than other recent X-Men installments, but still a disappointment given the hope that bringing back most of the originals, alongside the newer cast members, would draw a big box office.

* Dawn of the Planet of the Apes: $208 million, which bettered the first installment by $20 million. You know another film will be on the way, and given the positive reception to Andy Serkis and his work, the next film should draw $200 million as well.

* Amazing Spidey 2: $202 million, a definite disappointment. Part of the reason why the next Spidey movie has been punted down the road and Sony seems more interested in trying spinoff flicks instead.

* Godzilla: $200 million, which is a good number considering that the last installment did poorly.

* 22 Jump Street: $191 million, and like Guardians, it had good legs. Certainly means a third installment and the studio hoping it can push for $200 million. Even if not, a $150 million take or better on a third movie would be good for the franchise.

Of course, all eyes will be on Nov. 21, when Mockingjay Part One hits the big screen. Then there's the final Hobbit movie. Mockingjay, of course, will win the box office crown for 2014. No way does that film not reach $400 million.

[jdw]

I'm thinking Cap 3 will be like IM3: set up to chase $400M+.

05/01/15 - Avengers 2
07/17/15 - Ant-Man
05/06/16 - Captain America 3
07/08/16 - Doctor Strange
05/05/17 - Untitled Marvel Film
07/28/17 - Guardians of the Galaxy 2
11/03/17 - Untitled Marvel Film
05/04/18 - Untitled Marvel Film (Avengers 3?)
07/06/18 - Untitled Marvel Film
11/02/18 - Untitled Marvel Film
05/03/19 - Untitled Marvel Film (Avengers 3?)

Ant-Man is a bit like GotG in break a new franchise. Which makes Cap3 like IM3 act as the unofficial semi-sequel to an Avengers movie to get across where everything stands. Since they're pulling Downey into it, and he's getting PAID :) , they're probably going to go balls to the wall with it. Plus, Cap2 had such good vibes among movie goers / Marvel movie viewers.

One of those untitled movies will be a Thor since it's safe.

If Avengers 3 ends up being in 2019, and if there isn't an IM4, we're probably going to get something Hulky and Widowy. Plus that May 2018 would have to be one of their big boys.

Anyway, I think the only way Cap3 doesn't make a massive leap forward in the US is if Avengers 2 isn't good, and leaves a bad taste with movie goers. Otherwise, it should be really big.

[jdw]

Marvel Phase 3: Captain Marvel, Black Panther, Inhumans And Infinity War Movies Confirmed

05/01/15 - Avengers 2
07/17/15 - Ant-Man
05/06/16: Captain America: Civil War
11/04/16: Doctor Strange
05/05/17: Guardians of the Galaxy 2
07/28/17: Thor: Ragnarok
11/03/17: Black Panther
05/04/18: Avengers: Infinity War Part I
07/06/18: Captain Marvel
11/02/18: Inhumans
05/03/19: Avengers: Infinity War Part II

Avengers 2 is the end of Phase 2. They don't list Ant-Man in Phase 3 in the article, but seems like that it's the start of Phase 3 though Cap3 is the one that folks would see as the unofficial follow up to Avengers 2.

They've gone big on Avengers 3, splitting it into two movies. This seemed to work for Potter, and Hunger Games is going that direction as well. I bet Peter Jackson wishes he could have split Return of the King into two three hour movies. ;)

So this clearly takes Iron Man 4 off the books. But they have Downey in at least these four movies:

05/01/15 - Avengers 2
05/06/16: Captain America: Civil War
05/04/18: Avengers: Infinity War Part I
05/03/19: Avengers: Infinity War Part II

That is 4 out of the next 5 Leadoff Movies for the Summer.

Here's the other big change:

05/05/17 - Untitled Marvel Film
07/28/17 - Guardians of the Galaxy 2

To this:

05/05/17: Guardians of the Galaxy 2
07/28/17: Thor: Ragnarok

I mentioned that if was very safe that one of those untitled would be a Thor movie. It's interesting that they feel better about the GotG franchise to move it's 2nd one into the Leadoff Spot in 2017 while sliding Thor into the mid-Summer spot.

They're also using November for Non-Biggies:

11/04/16: Doctor Strange
11/03/17: Black Panther
11/02/18: Inhumans

Which is probably good strategy. Lower expectations. But also they come out at a time when there hasn't been a blockbuster since Summer, and people might be aching for one. If these do $200M in the US, they'll be happy. Bigger blockbusters come out later in November (in advance of Thanksgiving) and December. So Marvel is also trying to create a Winter Leadoff Spot similar to how the first weekend of May has gotten huge in the post-Mummy era.

I'll have to take a look back to see how the first weekend in November has done over the years, similar to the list I put together for the first week of May. Might be some interesting data.

[Steve Yohe]

You would think the Inhumans would be part of the old Fantastic Four deal.--Yohe

[Bob Morris]

Mockingjay Part One opens to $121.9 million.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3965&p=.htm

Nowhere near the level of the first two movies, and if it stays at the pace of the others, it's going to be second to Guardians of the Galaxy for the 2014 box office crown.

I suspect a lot of this has to do with the fact they split Mockingjay into two parts and everybody is more interested in the war on the Capitol and the final confrontation than anything else. Plus the third book wasn't as well received as the first two.

Will be interesting to see how the film's box office pace holds up, and if Guardians pulls off the upset. :)

[Bob Morris]

Following up on my previous post, some remarks from Grantland:

http://grantland.com/hollywood-prospectus/weekend-box-office-winners-losers-the-disappointingly-huge-opening-of-the-hunger-games-mockingjay-pt-1/

[jdw]

Pretty amazing how far it already is behind everything else on this chart:

http://boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=daily&id=hungertwilight.htm

The Breaking Dawn Part 1 comp is pretty brutal, and makes you wonder if it even gets to $300M. Most films moved away from competing with HG, expecting another huge hit. So there isn't a lot of comp for it between now and Exodus, which never was a sure thing anyway. The next big movies are 12/17-12/19, when a trio of movies try to hit it big.

[jdw]

Penguins of Madagascar looks to be a bomb: $36M over the five day. That's brutal:

Opening Weekends
$63M Madagascar 2
$60M Madagascar 3
$47M Madagascar
$36M Penguins (five day Thanksgiving)

Big Hero 6 made $26M on the same five day, and that was it's 4th weekend of release. As Mojo indicates, not a lot of competition for Penguins coming up, but it doesn't look like a $100M movie.

Speaking of Big Hero 6, it's ahead of the pace of other recent Disney November releases:

November Disney Animation

Throw Frozen out because (i) that first week was limited which screws up the comp, and (ii) it was a total Phenom of a movie at the box office with insane legs. But Wreck-It Ralph & Tangled offer good comps:

$167M BH6
$149M Ralph
$127M Tangled

Ralph got to $189M while Tangled just got past $200M. BH6 is ahead of them all on this weekend:

$18,770,000 BH6 (-6.7%)
$16,572,669 Ralph (-10.8%)
$8,775,344 Tangled (-38.8%)

Given Penguins bombing, I think thinks stand up well for BH6 sailing past $200M.

Interstellar had a surprising weekend: +3% over the prior weekend after dropping -40.4% & -45.8% it's 2nd and 3rd weekends. $22M over the five days. Mojo remains conservative on it, saying it "remains on track for over $170 million total." If it has another small drop next week (say 20%), then it's time to reconsider it's chances at $200M.

[jdw]

Box office is pretty much blowing this Winter.

Hunger Games 3.1 is $80M behind the pace of Hunger Games 2. It will get to $300M, but probably not to $320M.

Exodus did $24M, below projections. Top Five was below projections.

Per Mojo, The Hobbit 3 is opening strong overseas, above what the prior two did in the same markets. Perhaps this one does better than that last two in the US and sails past $300M with comfort.

The #1 movie of the year is still in play. The $332M the Guardians of the Galaxy made is the lowest leader since the $317M Harry Potter 1 led with in 2001, with only Spidey 3's leading $336M in 2007 close since then.

[jdw]

Hobbit 3 is well ahead of Hobbit 1 & 2 in terms of pace, but neither of those movies had hit Christmas at this point. Mojo is thinking it will top Hobbit 2, but not get to $300M.

Hunger Games is making a run at Cap for the top movie of the year. It's $26M down, and pulled in $13M from Thu-Sun on the Christmas weekend. If it can knock $16M off that on Mon-Sun, then it has a chance of getting hat last $10M.