The OtherArena

[jdw]

Yeah... it's time to start this one. :)

[Bob Morris]

So this weekend will have our likely first blockbuster in the Lego Batman movie. I can't load up Rotten Tomatoes page for some reason, but it's drawing mostly positive reviews thus far.

The Lego Movie drew $257M and I'd be surprised if the Batman movie didn't do as well, especially if the positive reviews keep rolling in.

Lego Movie opened to $69M, so I'll project that number for Lego Batman.

[jdw]

Split is on its way to $100M in the next day or so. The first hit of the year.

I'm glad to see xXx die at the domestic box office. It's a modest budget and will make money overseas. But Vin Diesel was getting to big for his britches again, so it's nice to see his attempts to reboot Riddick and xXx both flop domestically. :)

[Bob Morris]

Looks like a big box office weekend in store based on Thursday preview numbers.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4266&p=.htm

Fifty Shades Darker is in the lead but Mojo is projecting it will do a lower weekend number, but gain ground when Valentine's Day comes along. We'll see if that holds up.

Though Lego Batman only drew $2M Thursday, the Lego Movie only drew $400,000 on Thursday and drew $69M for the weekend. Also, Zootopia drew $1.7M for Thursday previews and that opened at $75M. That should mean a $70M opening weekend for Lego Batman is achievable.

[jdw]

Lego Batman opened $2M lower on Friday than Lego did. Lego did huge Sat-Sun business given it was aimed at kids. My guess is that this one will do as well, but the -$2M is surprising for a sequel to a wildly popular movie that also (i) has gotten good reviews, and (ii) has Bat-Freaking-Man as the lead. So... don't have a clue what that -$2M means. For a normal sequel is could be a bad sign. But we'll see on Sunday if this made that gap up on Sat-Sun.

Shades did $9M less than the original. I don't know if Mojo is right about their Valentine's Day concept in 2015. They also overplay the President's Day impact - it was down under $8M that Monday. This might struggle to get to $100M. It was rapidly bleeding money after that first Sunday. This might struggle to get to $100M barring a big uptick on Sat (vs close to $37M on the original's first Sat).

[jdw]

Shades 2 is in deep shit in terms of legs:

Shades 1 vs Shades 2
Fri: $30,278,840 vs $21,467,990
Sat: $36,752,460 vs $15,831,145
Sun: $18,140,150 vs $9,498,690

The first movie was front loaded, dropping a massive -73.9% which is the biggest ever for a movie that opened above $50M and only the 2009 version Friday the 13th dropped more than that among $40M+ openings. Considering Shades 1 opened at $85M+, that's going far down the list to find a movie that died worse on the second weekened.

This one was front loaded on the first weekend, peaking on Friday and doing less than half of the first one on Sat and Sun.

It's at $46M, so it typically should get to $100M+. But Shades 1 made more than half its money on its opening weekend. I don't think this one gets to $100M.

* * * * *

BatLego finished behind Lego 1 every day of the weekend. The Sun decline was better than the first one, but that might be due to the Fri-Sat being down so much. Lego 1 had very good legs, and did close to the same amount over the 4-day Presidents Weekend that it did over its opening 3-day weekend. This one had decent reviews, maybe there are some legs. It's going to need to do around $55M over the coming holiday 4-day weekend to have a realistic shot at $200M.

It's obviously not a bomb. But they spent $20M more (25% increase) on production that the first one, and likely a similar increase on the marketing budget. I don't think they expected this one to fall under $200M after the last one made $257M.

* * * * *

Wick is the surprise given the last one opened at $14M and only made $43M in the US. The last one only made a similar amount overseas, so wasn't even at $100M worldwide. The folks who made this must be going out of their minds by how good of a weekend this one did.

[Steve Yohe]

Hey....Sunday isn't over yet....that's creating. I have even decided to go to the movies or not. What the heck!!! I think its fixed!---Yohe

[Bob Morris]

Fairly strong weekend overall for the box office debuts.

Lego Batman: $55.6M
Fifty Shades Darker: $46.7M
John Wick 2: $30M

Lego Batman has a shot at topping $200M depending on its legs. Perhaps some of the Batman fanboys were more interested in the John Wick sequel.

The new Shades movie is probably topping out at $125M. That's the movie that Mojo has speculated might do good business on Valentine's Day. We'll see if that prediction holds up.

John Wick 2 did much better on opening weekend than the first film. The first one did $43M so the sequel will easily break that number. The first one was also a low-budget film ($20M) and I would suspect the sequel isn't that much higher.

[jdw]

I mentioned earlier that Shades might not make $100M. If it follows the lack of legs of the first one, it won't. :)

[Bob Morris]

Fifty Shades Darker pulled in $11M on Tuesday (Valentine's Day) so Mojo's prediction proved accurate. It's at $61M now.

What may be a bit misleading when comparing to the first film is that it debuted on a Valentine's Day weekend, which would partly explain the opening weekend number.

The real question is the second weekend. Because the Valentine's Day weekend likely boosted the first, it would be a bit misleading to compare the first to the second weekend.

We'll see how the second film holds up this weekend, but it's worth noting it's doing better business on the weekdays than Lego Batman... which, of course, can be attributed to the latter less likely to bring in the families on school days.

And it wouldn't surprise me if Lego Batman does fairly good business this coming weekend, given that it's President's Day weekend and more families may show up on Sunday and Monday.

[jdw]

Wow... all box office was up massively on Tuesday, even the kids Lego movie.

Even with the big jump on Tue, it really didn't pick up much ground on Shades 1 in the Mon-Tue comp:

$14,906,060 Shades 2
$13,326,130 Shades 1

It's almost $37M down on the original one after 5 days. It's got $29M of margin to get to $100M. Still not sure it's going to get there. Of course I'm rooting against it. :P

* * * * *

Bat Lego is going to be very interesting to watch. One would think as a sequel coming off that last success that it would have pumped a much better opening, and in turn be more front loaded / less leggy than Lego 1. It didn't spike the opening, which means it's going to need the type of legs that Lego 1 had to get to $200M. Not in the sense of what Lego 1 had in the tank, but the % drops each weekend.

[jdw]

Shades 2 did about $1.2M less than Shades 1 on its second Friday. It's worth remember than Shades 1 has a disasterous second weekend. Shades 2 is about $40M already and losing every day (except Tuesday). $100M is getting tougher.

Bat Lego got crushed on Friday by Lego 1:

$12,798,674 Lego 1
$7,555,000 Bat Lego

It's down $20M already. $200M is gone. -47.9% drop vs -25.1%... I'm thinking $150M is going to take some effort now.

[Bob Morris]

Lego Batman made $33M for Friday through Sunday. It will pass $100M with Monday's holiday numbers.

The Lego movies are on a lower budget than most superhero flicks, so it's not going to be viewed as a disappointment. I think Warner is happy to get $15M from the Lego franchise and likely didn't expect a $200M haul from the first film.

Fifty Shades Darker reached $20M. Another $3M would put it past $90M. I think it still has a shot at $100M... its second weekend (excluding any Monday earnings) is just $2M shy of the first film. Again, that first film had an inflated opening number thanks to Valentine's Day and President's Day falling on the same weekend, so it was massively front loaded.

I think the second film's pace is going to be closer to what the first film might have done without that advantageous opening weekend the first film had.

Meanwhile, Great Wall bombed with a $21.6M total. That won't get to $100M and its budget is $150M.

[Steve Yohe]

Great Wall made 244 mil in China, so it might break even if it stays in theaters.

[Bob Morris]

Get Out opened to $30.5M this past weekend. Opened to strong reviews, so you have to wonder if this one has any legs. And at a $4.5M budget, it doesn't even have to reach $100M for the studio to consider it a major success.

For a rough comparison, Lights Out, a summer horror release, drew $21.6M on its opening weekend. That one finished at $67.2M.

I figure Get Out is an easy bet for $75M, and if its strong reviews lead to strong legs, it's a candidate for $100M.