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Box Office Thread 2017
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Bob Morris



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
Posts: 2566
Location: New Mexico

PostPosted: Fri Mar 17, 2017 9:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Beauty and the Beast drew $16.3M from Thursday previews.

For comparison, Batman vs. Superman drew $166M after $27.7M, but that one suffered a massive drop from Friday to Saturday.

Hunger Games, though, kept a steadier pace after pulling $19.7M from Thursday previews and finished with $152M.

Beauty and the Beast has a shot at a $150M opening weekend if it can hold steady from Friday to Saturday.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 18, 2017 9:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Big Friday (which includes the Thursday numbers) of $63M. We need to remember that a chunk of the audience will be kids who might not go on Friday, but instead on Sat-Sun with their parents. So it probably isn't as insanely front loaded as BvS:

$81,558,505 Fri
$50,657,088 Sat (-37.9%)
$33,791,754 Sun (-33.3%)

B&B is going to be a lot smoother, similar to Dory:

$54,746,405 Fri
$45,644,471 Sat (-16.6%)
$34,669,397 Sun (-24.0%)

If B&B tracks Dory, we get this:

$63,787,000 Fri
$53,182,010 Sat
$40,394,558 Sun
$157,363,568 Weekend

That's a fair amount of margin to get to $150M.

* * * * *

Logan had a very good run of weekdays, cutting DoFP's lead to $8M. It looks to have matches DoFP's Friday numbers. It's a total lock to get to $200M now, and has a decent shot at $220M, and even a shot at $230M if it keeps chipping away at DoFP's lead... and not an impossible shot at catching DoFP itself. $220M is more likely as DoFP is getting close to the point where it got some Summer Weekdays, which weren't huge boosts but did add some cash. Logan does have the revolving doors of Spring Break weeks, so that's a little off set.

* * * * *

Kong is getting beat up by Godzilla. About $40M down now.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sun Mar 19, 2017 1:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

jdw wrote:
Big Friday (which includes the Thursday numbers) of $63M. We need to remember that a chunk of the audience will be kids who might not go on Friday, but instead on Sat-Sun with their parents. So it probably isn't as insanely front loaded as BvS:

$81,558,505 Fri
$50,657,088 Sat (-37.9%)
$33,791,754 Sun (-33.3%)

B&B is going to be a lot smoother, similar to Dory:

$54,746,405 Fri
$45,644,471 Sat (-16.6%)
$34,669,397 Sun (-24.0%)

If B&B tracks Dory, we get this:

$63,787,000 Fri
$53,182,010 Sat
$40,394,558 Sun
$157,363,568 Weekend

That's a fair amount of margin to get to $150M.


BatB crushed those Dory rates:

$63,787,000 Fri
$62,737,000 Sat (-1.6%)
$43,476,000 Sun (-30.7%)
$170,000,000 Weekend

I also have a feel that this is closer to Dory on the second weekend than BvS:

$166,007,347 --> $51,335,254 BvS (-69.1%)
$135,060,273 --> $72,959,954 Dory (-46.0%)

Pixar movies tend to be outliers when it comes to second week drops, so I don't think BotB is going to do quite that % of a drop. But it's far more likely to be in the 50's than in the 60's like BvS. Since it opened $35M higher than Dory, it doesn't need that same level of % drop to still top it on the second weekend.

My guess is that there still are a fair number of people who skipped the first week because of the crowds who will watch it doing the weekdays and next weekend. There's also some spring break time coming up. This feels like a very safe $400M dollar movies. If the reviews had been better, I would say $500M is a shot... but they weren't off the charts, so that probably is a reach. But it's big.

* * * * *

Kong had a better % drop than Godzilla: -52.7% vs -66.8%. The problem is that it had a lower starting point, so it made less money this weekend: $29M vs $31M. It's $38M down, which is up from the $32M it was down after last weekend. More tough movies coming out in the next few weeks. $150M is certainly possible, but probably not a lot higher.

* * * * *

Logan picked up another $2M+ on DoFP, up to $184M and now just $5M back of DoFP's pace. That will continue to be an interesting race to watch. Note that Logan cost less than 50% of what DoFP cost. It's doing pretty well overseas as well. It probably won't catch DoFP worldwide number, but there's that budget difference... this is a pretty big success.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Mon Mar 20, 2017 7:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

BotB's legs are now the key as to how far it will go. It's going to be a $400M movie... the first Hunger Games got there with a $152M opening weekend. If BotB has any legs, $500M is a possibility.

As for Logan, $200M is a lock. Now the question is how far past $200M it will go.

Kong passed $100M this weekend but it doesn't have legs. Maybe it can reach $150M domestically, but it's not going to get any higher than that.

Get Out continues to do well. Up tp $133M and its legs remain good. I still think this one is getting to $150M.

I don't see anything coming this weekend that is going to be as big of a hit as BotB, Logan or Get Out, though. Power Rangers isn't getting received well. ChiPs isn't going to open in enough theaters to have a shot at a big weekend. Don't know much about Life.

Looking ahead, unless there's a sleeper among upcoming releases, I don't think we're going to have another big hit until Guardians of the Galaxy 2 hits theaters in May.
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Bob Morris



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Location: New Mexico

PostPosted: Tue Mar 21, 2017 2:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Beauty and the Beast pulled in $13.5M Monday, $3M more than Hunger Games did on its first Monday.

BotB already had a $22M lead in the weekend box office, so now it's $25M ahead of Hunger Games' pace. If it stays $3M ahead in the coming weekdays, it's a good sign for BotB's chances of reaching $450M.

To get to $500M will require a strong second weekend. Hunger Games dropped 61.6 percent from its first to second weekend... if BotB drops the same percentage, that would likely keep it from hitting $500M. But a lower drop... say, 50 to 55 percent... might give it a chance at $500M.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 21, 2017 7:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

$500M is rough when looking at those Mon-Thu numbers that Dory pulled in. BotB had a $39M lead over Dory on the weekend, and $6M of it went out the door on Monday. Dory came up $14M short of $500M, so there's not much margin there.

I'm thinking you're right that $450M is the right mountain for it to climb. That would be huge.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Wed Mar 22, 2017 1:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

BotB added another $17M to its take Tuesday. It's already past the $200M mark and now has $33M up on Hunger Games.

Hunger Games earned $235M after its first five days. That take would put BotB at $441M, which means an excellent chance for it to reach $450M.

It still needs to show legs from its first to second weekend to have a shot at $500M. But right now, I wouldn't bet against it challenging for that mark.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 23, 2017 9:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bob - did you see this chart?

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=daily&id=bbjunglealice.htm

Given that The Jungle Book made $364,001,123, that BatB is $92M and growing ahead of it at this point... wow.
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Bob Morris



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Location: New Mexico

PostPosted: Sat Mar 25, 2017 8:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hadn't seen that one yet, but yeah, BotB is just blowing far ahead of the pace of comparable movies.

Speaking of which, it added $23.5M to its tally, based on Friday's estimates. It's gone past $250M now.

Also, that's a much smaller drop from its first Friday, which was $63.7M. Sticking with the Hunger Games comparison I've used, Hunger Games pulled $67.2M on its opening Friday and fell to $18.6M its second Friday.

Hunger Games had $200M left in the tank at this point... that alone gets BotB to $450M. But given its pace, BotB is nearing a legitimate shot at $500M.

---

Power Rangers opened with $14.9M for a Friday estimate, which could give it $40M for its opening weekend.

Logan added $2.6M and is now approaching $194M. It's just a matter of time before it breaks $200M. How far beyond that... it might get to $225M but that may be its ceiling. Still, a good showing, far better than the other Wolverine solo movies.

Get Out pulled in another $2.5M. The legs for this film have been amazing. Yeah, I think this one will be a $150M movie.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 25, 2017 4:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yeah, I'm thinking this weekend means $500M is very much in play. The studio is now thinking $80M+ for the weekend. Jungle Book made $61M. This is a freaking monster box office.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Sun Mar 26, 2017 2:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/

Beauty and the Beast pulled in $88.3M on its second weekend. Just a 49.4 percent drop from its first weekend.

The race to $500M is officially on.

Power Rangers drew $40.5M. It has a modest budget compared to other films, though ($100M). It might get to $100M domestically. Interesting that the film won't open in Japan until mid-July.

Logan officially reached $200M this weekend. It's ahead of Wolverine Origins' pace by nearly $40M. Origins got to $179M and was at $163M after its fourth weekend. Logan might make the push to $225M.

Kong drew $14.4M and its drop from its second to third weekend wasn't as steep as the one from its opening to second weekend. It's holding up enough that it should get to $150M, though it will fall well short of $200M.

Get Out pulled in $8.6M and is at $147M now.

Beauty and the Beast, Logan and Get Out have made for a pretty strong spring box office. Each of them has set a mark in their own ways and it's going to be interesting to see if any of the summer box office flicks can set any such marks.

Of course, they may all get blown away by The Last Jedi. :)
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Mon Mar 27, 2017 2:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The actual numbers came out today... Beauty and the Beast made $90M. At $319M total.

Again, $500M is now in play.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 27, 2017 7:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

$319,032,604 BotB
$313,402,397 Avengers 2

That might not seem impressive next to a movie that made "only" $459M. But dig the first weekends:

$191,271,109 Avengers 2
$174,750,616 BotB

BotB spotted it a $16M+ lead on the first weekend... and kicked it's ass so much on the second weekend that it ended nearly $6M up by the second Sunday.

Nuts.

It's $33M up on Dory. Granted, Dory does have it's robust $51M 4th of July weekend coming up, which along with Summer Weekdays is going to cut into that lead. Dory was at $381M after the 4th. But BotB has some margin to work with there, and doesn't look like it's losing steam yet.
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Bob Morris



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Location: New Mexico

PostPosted: Tue Mar 28, 2017 11:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

With Avengers reaching $459M, BatB looks like a lock for $475M. Nothing indicates it's going to lose steam in the coming weeks, given it doesn't have any film set for release that is likely to cut into its audience.

The Boss Baby comes out this weekend but that's not getting favorable reviews. Even if it did, it's a new film, so it would have to get strong word of mouth and legs to compete for viewers.

The new Smurfs movie comes out in two weeks but that franchise hasn't been big at the box office.

The Fate of the Furious, though a film that might do well at the box office, plays to a different audience than BotB.

I would expect BatB to win the next two weekends. It might lose out to Fate of the Furious, but it might be a close race if BatB's legs remain strong.
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