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Box Office Thread 2017
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Bob Morris



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
Posts: 2638
Location: New Mexico

PostPosted: Sun Apr 02, 2017 3:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Boss Baby drew $49M on its opening weekend and slipped past Beauty and the Beast for the weekend crown.

Boss Baby is one of those movies that didn't draw a lot of good reviews from critics but audiences seem to like it. Mojo is using Home for a comparison.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?id=homeboss.htm

Home was another March animated release and that one reached $177M. with a $52M opening weekend. So $150M is the target for Boss Baby.

BatB drew $47M and is closing in on $400M. I still think it's going to reach $500M. Hunger Games had $106M left in the tank at this point and BatB is staying well ahead of that film's pace.

Ghost in the Shell bombed. Just $19M for its opening weekend.

Power Rangers dropped off quite a bit to $14.5M. It may struggle to reach $100M now.

Logan is now up to $211M. Will be interesting to see how long the studio leaves it in theaters. It should make it $220M by next weekend and has a shot at $230M.

Kong is now at $147M. It will reach $150M by the end of the week but it has to be a disappointment domestically.

Get Out is up to $156M. It's still doing good weekend business and is now pushing for $170M.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sat Apr 15, 2017 8:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Opening Fridays:

$67,407,340 Furious 7
$45,631,000 Furious 8

I'm a little surprised by that. Thought this has a chance at $400M. With that type of Friday, it's not getting to $300M.

* * * * *

Beauty and the Beast is still heading towards $500M. Still beating Jungle Book most every day, and is up by almost $150M on a movie that made $360M. A good deal of margin there, and no signs of slowing down.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 16, 2017 12:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

"Only" $100M in the US, but an insane $432.3M overseas.

Worldwide it's a record opening weekend ($532.5M), which is a bit of bullshit since SW7 didn't open in China until January. Looks like a $1B Worldwide movie, which is expected since FF7 did $1.5B.
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Bob Morris



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Location: New Mexico

PostPosted: Mon Apr 17, 2017 9:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Fate of the Furious looks like it might get to $300M if its legs hold up. Otherwise, it's probably a $250M domestic film. Still, it's a big hit internationally, so the studio can't be disappointed.

I think Beauty and the Beast hits $500M and goes well into June before it's pulled. Jungle Book, which was released later in the spring than BatB, stayed in theaters well into July, as I recall. I'm sure Disney will leave BatB in theaters as long as there's demand.

Logan appears to be petering out, but is just $4M shy of $225M.

Get Out's legs continue to impress. Eight weekends and it's still doing steady business. At $167.5M now and looks like it can reach $170M without much trouble.

Might be a quiet box office until Guardians of the Galaxy 2 arrives. :)
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 9:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mojo has a comp up for Fast and Furious 8, with the sixth film in the franchise.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=daily&id=f8vf6.htm

Not sure if that's the best comp, because F&F6 was a summer release, and a Memorial Day one at that, so that one is beating up F&F8 on the weekdays.

F&F6 had a massive drop from its first Fri-Sun to its second. If F&F8 takes that much of a drop, $300M is out of the question and so is $250M.

So how far F&F8 goes depends on its legs.
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Bob Morris



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Location: New Mexico

PostPosted: Mon Apr 24, 2017 9:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

F&F8 dropped 60 percent in its second weekend, though it beat out F&F6 for its weekend take by $3M.

Still, this means F&F8 won't reach $300M and its ceiling is probably $225M because it doesn't have the weekday advantage that F&F6 had.

But worldwide haul will more than make up for that. It's already passed $900M worldwide.

Beauty and the Beast added $9.9M to its take and is at $471M. Shouldn't be difficult for it to reach $500M; only question is how far past the mark it goes.
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corrado



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Location: LI

PostPosted: Tue Apr 25, 2017 1:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I know this is this year's box office thread, but the Disney slate for the next few years was released. The 2019 one, you have to see to believe:

https://twitter.com/GiteshPandya/status/856945426947330050

That's just mindblowing. It could be that at least a handful of those movies that Disney will release in 2019, could reach a Billion in boxoffice.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Tue May 02, 2017 6:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

F&F8 does look like $225M is a cap in the US, maybe $220M. If's falling quickly off the pace of F&F6. It has made a killing internationally... just insane money.


Beauty and the Beast is starting to fall off the pace of Jungle Book. JB has about $23M left in the tank at this point. Margin is getting a bit narrow for $500M. Not impossible, but tougher. JB was also later in the year, so it got some Summer.

Guardians opens up next week. Should be huge. It's killing it overseas as well compared to non-Avengers/IM Marvel movies.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Wed May 03, 2017 2:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Guardians 2 is at 86 percent fresh at Rotten Tomatoes. It's possible we have a record-setting opening for 2017 thus far. $180M opening weekend would do it.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Fri May 05, 2017 9:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

GotG 2 drew $17M from Thursday previews. Puts it higher than Beauty and the Beast, which had $16.3M.

Mojo was projecting $158M for GotG 2. The Thursday number might indicate that GotG 2 surpasses BatB's opening of $174M.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Sat May 06, 2017 6:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

A $56.2M estimate for GotG2 on Friday. That's behind Beauty and the Beast, so it doesn't look like we'll have a new weekend record for this year, unless Saturday's take is much higher.

Mojo has Guardians 2 projected at $140M for the weekend. Iron Man 2 drew $51.2M on its opening Friday and went past $120M for the weekend. Of course, that movie wasn't that well received and didn't have legs, while Guardians 2 is getting more positive reviews.

We'll see where it ends up.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Mon May 08, 2017 2:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Guardians 2 finished with $146M for its opening weekend.

Best comparison at this point would be Iron Man 2, which opened at $128M. Iron Man 2 didn't have much legs, though... it dropped 59.4 percent to its second weekend.

A 59.4 percent drop for Guardians 2 would mean a $60M second weekend. However, there's a chance it won't drop as far, given the stronger reviews Guardians 2 is getting compared to Iron Man 2 and other May sequels such as Thor 2 and Avengers 2.

Captain America 2 dropped 56 percent from its opening weekend, but it had a much smaller opening at $95M. A 56 percent drop for Guardians 2 puts it at $65M for its second weekend.

As for the first Guardians film, that dropped 55 percent from its opening weekend but had good legs to reach $332M on a $94M opening weekend. A 55 percent drop for Guardians 2 means a $66M second weekend.

I figure that's going to be the ceiling for its second weekend.

Regardless, Guardians 2 will be a $300M opening barring a massive drop (which doesn't seem likely given its mostly positive reviews). If it keeps the legs of the first film, it will reach $350M but fall short of $400M.

So I'll peg Guardians 2 as a $350M movie.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Mon May 08, 2017 10:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

$300M is a lock given it's $52M ahead of GotG1 and that one got to $333M. That's $85M of margin to work with, and it won't bomb out that badly. Even BvS got to $333M after that $164M opening, and (i) it was bad and (ii) feel off quicker than Marvel movies do.

I think $350M is pretty close to a done deal. People seem to like this a lot, it's funny and that's the type that will get a chunk of the crowd to go back. That $52M lead with GotG1 coming up $17M short of $350M... that's $45M of margin. Gotta think that's enough.

It's a really weak release schedule coming up. They're pushing the Sherlock Holmes Director tie in for Arthur, but his last movie bombed despite being halfway decent. One can't underestimate the placement of those Holmes movies in relation to the first two Iron Man movies on this list:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/people/chart/?view=Actor&id=robertdowneyjr.htm

You have to think that if the studio had faith in Arthur doing $100M+ that they wouldn't have placed it in the week after the Leadoff Spot of the Summer. They typically counter program in that spot, either with a comedy or a chick flick or an movie aimed at adults. The last straight up comp that did good money was Star Trek in 2009 coming a week after X-Men Origins: Wolverine. That's a very safe spot for Trek since X-Men movies are massive frontloaders.

The other "action" movie that did "okay" was the Russell Crow Robin Hood, but that just scratch out over the top of $105M. It also was Crowe and Robin Hood, which has a big more box office history to it than Arthur and a light cast. So... that doesn't look like a movie that will bleed from GotG2.

The early buzz for Alien: Covenant is poor. Prometheus did a good $126M off a $50M+ opening. It's got a shot at taking the crown from GotG in week 3, but it probably isn't going to have the legs that Prometheus did, so it's not a long term bleed on GotG2.

Then it's Pirates 5 the week after that. Pirates 4 was disapponting in the US box office and in terms of quality, so who knows what it will do. But that one still opened to $90M. That's finally some direct comp.

GotG2 kind of has the field to itself until then, even of Covenant tops it. It could hold up and make a run at $400M. I don't think so, given how Cap3 had to work to get to $400M and that was totally loaded and loved. But GotG1 was a surprise at doing what it did, so who knows. :)
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Wed May 10, 2017 9:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

$9.8M for Guardians 2 on Monday. On one hand, it's less than what the first Guardians did on its first Monday ($11.7M), but the first movie came out during the summer while the second is out when school is still in session, so that's not that bad of a gap.

It's slightly ahead of Iron Man 2 ($9.3M) for its Monday draw. It's $19M up on Iron Man 2, which finished at $312M.

I'm still thinking this will be $350M, with the only question being how far it goes past that mark, but its next two weekends will be key to how far it goes.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Thu May 11, 2017 1:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

$12M for Guardians 2 on Tuesday. Not only was that up from its Monday number, it put it a bit ahead of Guardians 1's fist Tuesday ($11.9M).

Per The Numbers, Guardians 2 added $7.5M to its take Wednesday. The first Guardians did $8.8M its first Wednesday.

So Guardians 2 is keeping weekday numbers close to what the first one did. A good sign for a push to $400M.
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