The OtherArena

[Bob Morris]

Second weekend numbers

Guardians 2: $63M (57% drop)
Guardians 1: $42.1M (55.3% drop)
CapAm 2: $41.2M (56.6% drop)
Iron Man 2: $52M (59% drop)

Guardians 2 had a slightly bigger drop than Guardians 1, but dropped less than Iron Man 2. The drop compares more to CapAm 2, which did a good job holding its audience over time.

If Guardians 2 retains its audience like CapAm 2 did, that's a good sign, because CapAm2 dropped just 38 percent in its third weekend while Guardians 1 dropped 40.4 percent.

A Guardians 1 pace for Guardians 2 means it will squeak past $400M. Guardians 1 had $157M left in the tank after its second weekend, which is enough to put Guardians 2 at $403M.

But if its drops are in line with CapAm2, it might push for $425M.

Either way, $350M is now a lock and $400M is a safer bet... the only question is how far past $400M it goes.

[Bob Morris]

King Arthur finished third in the weekend box office with $14.7M. At $175M, it's going to need overseas box office to be strong to break even.

Snatched drew $17.5M and looks like it could be one of those solid box office hits. At a $42M budget, it doesn't have to go that high for a decent profit.

Beauty and the Beast is at $493.1M now. It's clear that Disney wants to leave this one in the theaters until it goes past $500M.

Disney is going to have another big year at the box office. Beauty and the Beast and Guardians 2 are just the start. There's the Spiderman movie which Marvel is jointly putting out with Sony, but Disney will also have the obvious one (Star Wars VIII) and other movies such as Cars 3, Pirates 5 and Thor 3 down the line.

It wouldn't be surprising if Disney has the top three box office draws this year.

[jdw]

It's a tight needle to thread for $400M. The drop was a big positive. Some of that may go away when the actuals come in, but $20M above the second weekend of GotG1 is a big positive.

It's $70M up. It lost 4/5 weekdays, giving back a few million. The $20M makes that up and some.

I'm thinking it needs to beat GotG1 by at least $10M next weekend to give itself some room. Those Summer Weekdays that GotG1 had are going to be eating away at GotG2's lead every day, so GotG2 needs to beat it up on the weekends for a while.

[Bob Morris]

$36M opening for Alien: Covenant. That's $15M less than what Prometheus opened at. Given that Prometheus finished at $126M, it's not a good sign for Covenant to get to $100M unless it shows some legs.

Guardians 2 dropped 46 percent to $35M this weekend and passed the $300M mark. It still appears to be a safe bet for $400M, though $425M might be out of its reach. Guardians 1 had $111M left in the tank at this point, which would put Guardians 2 at $412M. Perhaps it can get additional room if it does well enough on Memorial Day weekend.

Beauty and the Beast is now $3M shy of the $500M mark.

Get Out is still hanging around in a few theaters and is just barely below $175M. I don't think the studio could ever have anticipated that film doing as well as it did.

And Logan just reached $225M.

[jdw]

Worst opening "Friday" of any of the Pirates sequels:

$56,150,436 Pirates 3
$55,830,600 Pirates 2
$34,860,549 Pirates 4
$23,395,000 Pirates 5

Dramatically worst.

Pirates 4 "only" got to $241M in the US. This one isn't getting to $200M, or remotely close. Wonder Woman opens next week and is going to kill it. The Mummy is the week after that, and while it might not take the crown from Wonder Woman if that is a monster, it's going to be another action movie that pushes the box office of Pirates down even further.

Kind of a sad end to the current franchise after the first one was a wonderful hit and the second one turned into a phenom.

* * * * *

Baywatch is bombing a honorific death. The only positive is that they only spend $69M on it, and perhaps between the US and overseas it might... no, it would need to get around $150M worldwide to break even, and that doesn't look likely. Yow.

* * * * *

GotG still has a shot at $400M. Not a lock, especially with big movies coming out starting with WW next week. But Baywatch bombing out and Pirates being flat help out in keeping theaters.

[Bob Morris]

$25M four-day weekend tally for GotG2. It's already passed the first Guardians for domestic take.

The first Guardians had $80M left in the tank and that includes Labor Day weekend. I'm still betting on Guardians 2 pulling in enough business to do $400M. Wonder Woman might pull some of its audience away, but I suspect Wonder Woman will pull more away from people who watched other films such as Pirates and Alien.

$77M for Pirates 5's four-day take. Like you said, John, this one is well behind the other Pirates sequels. Pirates 3, a Memorial Day release, pulled in $153M for that weekend and it finished just barely above $300M. Pirates 4, which wasn't a Memorial Day release, did $90M in its opening weekend and that finished at $241M.

Wonder Woman is getting strong reviews so far -- of the 55 critics whose reviews have been listed at Rotten Tomatoes, 53 of them liked it.

I don't know if Wonder Woman can approach the opening for Batman v Superman, but if it keeps getting positive reviews, it could open to $100M. More importantly, positive reviews could mean better legs for WW and give it a chance to beat BvS for total take.

[Bob Morris]

$11M in Thursday previews for Wonder Woman. That's comparable with the first Guardians of the Galaxy, which had a $94M opening weekend.

Would be surprising if Wonder Woman doesn't finish with a $90M opening weekend given the positive reviews it's getting.

[jdw]

I don't know if GotG1 is a good comp for Thursday - it was a full summer release. Schools aren't fully out yet, so you have a lot of people who want to see it who have to be in school on Friday. Even worse if they're doing final or near-final stuff.

I'm thinking more along the lines of Deadpool:

$12.7M Deadpool
$11.0M Wonder Woman

Also noting that a chunk of the Wonder Woman ticket buyers will be women/girls, who might now be as insane about seeing WW on a Thursday as boy/man comic book fanboys.

I'm thinking this is going to be rather big. I think $100M this weekend is going to be a bit of a lock, and given that school issue and the fanbase that it's probably not going to be as insanely frontloaded as BvS into Friday. I think it's going to hold up doing good business on Sat and Sun relative to a lot of these.

[Bob Morris]

$38.8M was the estimate for Wonder Woman for Friday.

$90M opening weekend is a lock. $100M is still in play given the strong reviews.

I caught one of the afternoon showings today and there was a good crowd, so you can tell there's a lot of interest in the film.

[Bob Morris]

Estimated $100.5M opening for Wonder Woman. It set a record for the highest weekend opening for a female-directed film.

I found a better comparison to use than either the first Guardians or Deadpool -- that would be the first Iron Man, which drew $98.6M on its opening weekend.

Iron Man, of course, has more weeks when school was in session, so Wonder Woman has a good chance to surpass its weekday intake. The question, though, is whether the film can show any legs in the coming weeks.

I tend to believe it will, given how well it's been received. Iron Man dropped just 48 percent from its first to its second weekend and there's a good chance Wonder Woman will follow a similar path. I don't know if The Mummy will pull much of the audience away, unless Mummy gets as many positive reviews as Wonder Woman did. Even then, it may not matter.

[Bob Morris]

The actual weekend total for Wonder Woman was $103M. Held pretty steady throughout the weekend: $382.M Friday, $35.2M Saturday and $29.7M Sunday.

Pirates 5 dropped all the way to $22M. This one is going to have a hard time reaching $175M now.

Guardians 2 continues to do well. Fourth in weekend box office with $9M. It did lose some ground to Guardians 1, but that film's fourth weekend was Labor Day weekend, so it pulled more on Sunday. The first Guardians had $58M left in the tank and Guardians 2 should still have enough left to get to $400M -- it only needs $45M to get there and has a $22M margin to work with.

Beauty and the Beast passed the $500M mark a few days ago. Probably will hang around in theaters for a couple more weeks and could finish at $505M.

[jdw]

I had a feeling that WW would be the type of movie coming in over its estimates. The balance over the weekend is good.

Disappointed by how far it opened behind Suicide Squad. Squad also had summer weekdays to work with, and zero competition it's first three weekends (and nothing really its 4th and 5th weekends). WW has Mummy coming up.

Thought WW was a lock for $300M. I don't think it has a chance given that opening. Really surprising.

I do think it's going to have reasonable legs. MoS and Squad made 40-41% of their box office off their opening weekends. BvS was a brutal non-leggy 50%. WW would need to be at 34% to get to $300M.

The Marvel movies that have had that level of legs:

28% Guardians of the Galaxy
31% Iron Man
32% Ant-Man
33% Avengers

IM, Avengers and GotG were all phenoms in their own context - IM for launching the MCU at unexpected level, Avengers for doing a numbing at the time $600M, and GotG for doing more money than any MCU movie to that point other than Avengers and IM3 with characters that weren't Avengers.

Ant-Man was kind of flukey in those legs, and helped by all of it's money making weeks being in full summer and no comp in it's second weekend. Even then, it barely got below the 34% that WW needs.

[Bob Morris]

Wonder Woman pulled in $11.7M Monday. Not as high as Suicide Squad's first Monday take of $13.1M.

Suicide Squad was an oddity, though. It didn't have good legs early on in its run and was looking like it might fall short of $300M, but managed to hold steady enough late in its run to get there and further past it.

With Wonder Woman, it's really going to come down to how well it keeps satisfying audiences compared to other upcoming flicks.

Right now, Mummy isn't getting favorable reviews. I'm getting a King Arthur vibe from this one... something the studio would really like to do well but isn't getting the reviews that will convince people to check it out.

Wouldn't surprise me if Wonder Woman beats Mummy for box office take this weekend.

[Bob Morris]

First Tuesday numbers

Wonder Woman: $14.3M
Suicide Squad: $14.2M

Wednesday's numbers will be interesting... Squad dropped to $9.8M its first Wednesday. If Wonder Woman can avoid that drop, it's a good sign.

I'm still thinking Wonder Woman wins the weekend box office crown again, given the weak reviews Mummy is getting. If Mummy can't get better reviews, I'm thinking it's going to bomb.

[Bob Morris]

$9.3M for Wonder Woman on Wednesday.

So, as of Tuesday, it's roughly along Suicide Squad's pace., though trailing behind it by $32M for total take as of Wednesday.

Again, I think weekend numbers are what will ultimately tell the tale about how far Wonder Woman goes in domestic box office.