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Box Office Thread 2017
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Bob Morris



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 9:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Per The Numbers, Mummy drew just $2.66M from Thursday previews. Less than even the latest Pirates movie.

Yeah... The Mummy is going to bomb.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Sat Jun 10, 2017 2:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Second Friday numbers

Wonder Woman: $15.8M
Suicide Squad: $13.1M

Looks like Wonder Woman should finish ahead of Suicide Squad's second weekend. The latter got $43M, so assuming a plus-$2M margin for Wonder Woman on Saturday and Sunday, it will be $49M for Wonder Woman's second weekend. Might even close on $50M, so it's a good sign for the film's legs and its chances of getting to $300M.

The fact that it doesn't really have direct competition until Transformers hits theaters could help. Cars 3 comes out next week, and while that's the likely candidate to win next weekend's box office crown, Wonder Woman could still do enough business for second place.

Meanwhile, Mummy got $12M Friday. Its fate is sealed. Have to wonder if the fate of the whole "universe" that Universal wanted to launch is sealed, too.

Guardians 2 is at $361.8M with Friday's take. It's losing ground to the first Guardians, which had $46M left in the tank at this point. Maybe Guardians 2 has enough to get past $400M -- it needs $39M to get there. Could be the studio leaves it in as long as possible to get it past that mark.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Sun Jun 11, 2017 8:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://www.the-numbers.com/weekend-box-office-chart

Wonder Woman
First weekend: $103M
Second weekend: $57.1M

Just a 45 percent drop for Wonder Woman from its first weekend to its second. Nearing a $205M tally and, now, you have to think $300M is a lock. It's showing better legs than Suicide Squad now and nothing would indicate it's going to have a massive dropoff given how the weekend numbers show that Wonder Woman satisfied its audience a lot and/or drew more people in.

Mummy is looking at a $32.2M weekend. Big time bomb.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Sun Jun 11, 2017 12:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

More comparisons for Wonder Woman now that Mojo is up and had its update, too.

2nd Weekend

Wonder Woman: $57.1M (44.6% drop)
Suicide Squad: $43.3M (67.4% drop)
Iron Man: $51.1M (48.1% drop)

Wonder Woman beat the crap out of Suicide Squad and even bettered Iron Man for its second weekend.

Squad had $103M left in the tank at this point while Iron Man had $140.5M.

It's clear by now that Wonder Woman is going to have more steam than Suicide Squad, even with some competition coming up, so Wonder Woman should be a $300M film. It may not have the $140.5M left that Iron Man did, but assuming that, it gets near $350M.

If Wonder Woman can keep beating Suicide Squad from this point forward, it should finish with a better domestic total (Squad did $325M) and it might catch Batman v Superman ($330M).

But I think $300M is safe for Wonder Woman now.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 11, 2017 4:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think the big one to watch for an easy baseline when looking at $300M is Man of Steel. It finished with $291M, so WW only needs to get $9M beyond it to get to $300M.

WW opened $25M behind it, then lost that first Monday by another $1M which made things look bleak. When you start $26M behind after four days, losing all four days to a movie that came up $9M short... that's not good.

It's flipped since then. WW knocked $3M off on Tue, and after Wed looked worrisome, then it knocked another $2M off on Thu. At that point you're looking at the -64.6% drop that MoS had in its second weekend, which is the *best* drop so far of the DCU... and you're think WW can take that even if it drops a not-so-good -60%.

The problem with a -60% is that WW was still down $21M heading into the weekend to a movie that came up $9M short. A -60% would be bad in getting to $300M because in terms of $$$, it would have made the same $41M on the second weekend that MoS made - no ground made up. A -55% would have made up only $5M and left things really tight. You really wanted to see a -50% drop that would have let it cut $10M off the MoS's lead and show this thing has legs.

-44.6% is unfreakingbelievable. It knocked $16M off the lead of MoS, taking it down to $5M. Let's recall that WW came in much better than its estimates last week when the actuals came in last weekend, so it's not likely to do worse here. Summer is also here, so students are going to be seeing this during the weekdays. It also crushed the crap out of Mummy which looks like a bomb, which means that WW is the one that will be keeping theaters longer. There isn't competition in this niche for another 10 days until Transformers come out. So...

It's going to hack the crop out of that MoS lead very quickly. It will be ahead by no later than Wed, then it will cut into that $9M above MoS that it needs to get to $300M. It might get there by the end of next weekend... not an unreasonable expectation.

I'm with you that $300M is pretty locked in now.

The leads that BvS and SS have... not sure. It does have the advantage of a full summer weekdays over BvS, which has rolling Spring Breaks that helped it for a while much not to the same degree. SS was a late summer release, and didn't have summer weekdays for long. The $55M that it's behind BvS is a hell of a lot. Of course BvS fell apart with not legs, so... it's possible. But $55M is a lot to come back from when you picked up just $6M over the second weekend.

* * * * *

The Mummy is a bomb here, but is doing well worldwide. It also was made fairly cheap - $125M compared to the $230M of Pirates. I do think the marketing budget has been pretty massive in this country, so that $125M isn't a real number in any sense.

This is a massive set back to Universal which has a slew of monster movies in the developmental stage under their Dark Universe brand:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_Monsters#Dark_Universe

Bride of Frankenstein is going to have to turn this whole thing around.

The biggest problem is that they've hitched their wagon to Alex Kurtzman as the creative overseer. He did Mummy, and attached to everything else as a Producer and effectively the show runner of the series. This is a bit like Zach Snyder originally running the DCU.

I think as folks look back on this era, they're going to be amazed by how Marvel was able to largely able to whole their shit together across two cycles of movies and now are pretty solid into the third one. They've had some clunkers (Hulk) or disappointing ones (Ultron). But they're 15 movies into it, and still have some fresh looking things coming up (Spider-Man, Black Panther, Captain Marvel) along with the war horses (Thor 2, Avengers 3 & 4) and the intrigue of whether they can follow up on the fun Ant-Man with another one on that smaller scale. They are of course risking burn out now - three movies in each of 2017-2019. But even if it falls off, to be 15 movies deep now and not falling off the cliff, that's pretty good.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Mon Jun 12, 2017 12:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Weekend actuals came in at $58.5M for Wonder Woman and $31.6M for Mummy.

So the former came in above estimates and the latter came in under.

Wonder Woman is now $5M behind Man of Steel and $17M behind Suicide Squad. Mojo has the comp up.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?id=dcuni.htm

Agreed with you, John, that Marvel did a better job planning out its shared universe than other studios have. They at least rolled out a few films to start to see how they would do, before moving forward with a bigger universe.

Of course, part of that may have been helped when Marvel was giving rights to other studios before Marvel Studios came to be and Disney bought it out. Iron Man went to Paramount and Universal took Hulk, so Marvel couldn't go right out and plan a whole shared universe from the start. Compare that to DC, which Warner has owned for some time and could just roll out a shared universe without having to wrestle away rights from another studio.

Also, Marvel may have hoped to start a cinematic universe, but they didn't go in with an approach that locked them into it. There were enough hints left in films implying a shared universe, but not until they got further along with their films did they make it clearer they were going that route.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Tue Jun 13, 2017 2:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

$6.2M for Wonder Woman on its second Monday. Doubled MoS' number and beat Suicide Squad again.

It should pass Man of Steel today and appears likely to gain more ground on Squad.

I'm still thinking it's going to at least beat Squad's total take when all is said and done.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Tue Jun 13, 2017 2:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Meanwhile, the reviews are starting to come in for Cars 3 and they are leaning positive.

Here are the first two films to get this comp started.

Opening weekends

Cars: $60.1M
Cars 2: $66.1M

Total take

Cars: $244M
Cars 2: $191.4M

The first movie had a slightly lower opening than the second but better legs. I figure Cars 3 should be good enough for a $60M opening weekend as long as there are more positive reviews coming in.

It should have no trouble winning the weekend box office crown. Wonder Woman's take will go down a bit, and even at just a 44 percent drop, it's around the $30M mark. Can't see Cars 3 finishing that low, regardless of reviews.

47 Meters Down and Rough Night are the other mass openings this weekend. The latter is an R-rated film, so that limits its audience a bit. The former only has a few reviews so far and they're mixed. Doesn't look like either one will challenge for the weekend crown.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 15, 2017 12:08 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Great Tue for WW: picked up $2.6M on SS. About $12.4M back. If it holds up over the weekend, it could close that gap by the end of Sun.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Fri Jun 16, 2017 8:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Wonder Woman beat Suicide Squad by $2.2M Wednesday. Given its pace, it's likely it beat Squad by $2M again Thursday (those numbers aren't out as of this post), so going into the weekend, it will only be $9M behind Squad's take going into the third weekend.

Squad pulled in $20.8M its third weekend. I'm thinking Wonder Woman is a good bet to do $30M, which would put it past Squad's take through its third weekend and give it a legitimate shot at beating not only Squad's total take, but Batman v Superman's total take.

Certainly a big win for Patty Jenkins, who you figure is going to seek a lot more money for the likely chance that DC/Warner green lights a sequel.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Sun Jun 18, 2017 9:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Cars 3 opened at $53.5M, well behind the first film's opening. That's not good news for its chances of getting to $200M.

The flipside is that Cars 3 is getting better reviews and audience likes than Cars 2, so it might be able to catch Cars 2's total take if it has any legs. We have to remember that Cars 2 was front loaded while Cars had better legs, so the latter is what Cars 3 will need to catch Cars 2.

Wonder Woman pulled in $40.7M for its third weekend, which is incredible. That's just $2.1M shy of The Dark Knight's third weekend.

Wonder Woman has now passed Suicide Squad for total take through its third weekend and is $15M behind Batman v Superman. With a $281M take, if we assume just $3M average in the upcoming Mon-Thur, it will be at $293M or $9M behind Batman v Superman.

So $300M is a lock, beating Suicide Squad is a lock and beating Batman v Superman is becoming more likely.

Here's The Numbers' box office chart for the weekend.

http://www.the-numbers.com/weekend-box-office-chart
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 18, 2017 2:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

BvS made $330M, and WW is just $22M behind it's pace after beating it by $17M this weekend. Remember that WW has topped it's estimates every weekend when the actuals come in. It might be just $20M down.

It's going to beat BvS. It's destroying it on the weekdays (Summer Weekdays + Better Movie), and killed it on the weekend.

The question now is does it have the legs for $350M. SS has $62M left in the tank at this point, which would take WW to $337M if it matches. Well... it's actually topping that pace, with SS's full summer weekdays coming to a quick close around this time. I wouldn't be at all surprised if it has $13M more left in the tank than SS had at this point.

* * * * *

I hope that Pixar moves on from Cars and this run of sequels. I'm fine with Incredibles, but they need to move on.
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Steve Yohe



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PostPosted: Sun Jun 18, 2017 3:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Your thinking of the live action Incredibles...right?---Yohe
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2017 2:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

So here's where we are at with the summer box office race now that weekend actuals are in.

Guardians of the Galaxy 2: Leads the pack at $374.9M. I suspect Disney/Marvel will want to leave this one in theaters long enough to see if it can get to $400M. Still in 1,800+ theaters, though I can imagine some may be ready to pull it out when Transformers 5 debuts.

Wonder Woman: Passed $275M with this past weekend's take. The chase is on for $350M.

Pirates 5: At $150.5M. Going to fall well short of $200M. This is supposed to be the last one, but if they had thought about another film, it's pretty clear the interest is gone.

Alien: Covenant: At $72.7M. Not likely to reach $100M domestic. I doubt that justifies another movie.

The Mummy: $57.5M. Domestic bomb, though it seems to be OK internationally.

Baywatch: $55.1M. Not a good haul, though it had a smaller budget than Mummy and the next film on the list.

King Arthur: $38.5M. Major domestic bomb.

Cars 3: $53.6 opening weekend.

Your next slew of films looking to chase down Guardians 3.

* Transformers 5
* Despicable Me 3
* Amityville: The Awakening
* Spider-Man: Homecoming
* War for the Planet of the Apes
* Dunkirk
* Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets
* Atomic Blonde
* The Dark Tower
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jdw
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 20, 2017 6:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Steve Yohe wrote:
Your thinking of the live action Incredibles...right?---Yohe


Pixar's:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Incredibles_2
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