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Box Office Thread 2017
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Bob Morris



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
Posts: 2644
Location: New Mexico

PostPosted: Tue Jul 11, 2017 2:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Following up on the previous post with some more information to consider about Spidey and the Apes movie.

Spidey: It needs to show similar legs to Wonder Woman in terms of the box office it draws from this point forward. Meaning, because Wonder Woman drew $58.5M in its second weekend, Spidey should be in good shape as long as it gets around $58M in its second weekend.

Spidey can afford a slightly larger percentage drop because it had a larger initial weekend opening number, but it can't go below $58M in order to have a shot at the summer box office crown.

Apes 3: The first film opened at $54.8M when audiences probably didn't know what to make of it. Finished with $176.6M.

The second film had a better opening at $72.6M and finished with $208.5M. So it drew in more people, no doubt some who saw the first film on DVD or cable and liked it, thus they went to theaters for the second.

If the third film can draw more people who saw the first two on DVD, Netflix, whatever, the positive reviews coming in should give the third Apes movie at least an $85M opening weekend.

What will be interesting to see is if there's enough buzz around the third film to make it a $100M opening weekend. While the first two films wouldn't suggest that, if audiences are intrigued enough by it and more fans have been cultivated thanks to the first two films, the $100M opening weekend mark might not be out of the question.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Wed Jul 12, 2017 12:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

First Tuesday numbers.

Spidey HC: $15M
Wonder Woman: $14.3M

Spidey HC is at $144.2M and is keeping about a $15M cushion ahead of Wonder Woman's take to this point.

If Spidey HC can keep its audience in the second weekend, it may be time to start thinking of Spidey as a potential $400M movie.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Thu Jul 13, 2017 4:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mojo's weekend forecast for Apes and Spidey HC week two.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4305&p=.htm

I agree that Fox's $50M estimate for Apes is way too low. $70M is a reasonable projection from Mojo, but I suspect it's going to be $80M or better, given the positive reviews and the increased interest in the franchise.

Spidey's $57.3M projection by Mojo seems reasonable. If at that level, it would be just a touch behind Wonder Woman's second weekend.

If it has the percent drop-off that Wonder Woman had, that comes out to more than a $67M second weekend. I don't think Spidey goes that high in its second weekend, but $60M might not be out of the question if audiences keep coming in.

Could be the most interesting weekend of this summer.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Fri Jul 14, 2017 10:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

War for the Planet of the Apes gets $5M from Thursday previews, per Mojo.

Dawn of the Planet of the Apes got $4.1M and finished with $72.6M, so it's a good sign for the newest Apes movie having a shot at an $80M opening weekend.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Fri Jul 14, 2017 3:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Spiderman Homecoming added $8.8M Thursday, making it the first day it lost out to Wonder Woman. It's made enough to keep about a $16M lead on WW.

But what's also interesting is this...

First full week:
Spiderman Homecoming: $163M
Spiderman 1: $151.6M

Didn't even realize that Spidey HC is ahead of the first-ever Spidey flick. That one did better business its first Saturday and Sunday, but Spidey HC is beating it on the weekdays -- in particular, a big take on its first Tuesday ($15M vs. $9.9M). Of course, the first-ever Spidey was a May release, which would explain its lower weekday take to start.

Spidey 1's second weekend came in at $71.1M, which was cemented its spot as a $400M flick.

I don't think Spidey HC is going to do $70M in its second weekend, though if it retains enough audience on its weekends, better weekday numbers could give it a shot at passing the first Spidey film.

Anyway, there's more interesting stuff to watch for Spidey HC than just whether or not it will catch up to Wonder Woman.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Sun Jul 16, 2017 9:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Weekend estimates

Apes 3: $55.5M
Spidey HC: $45.2M

Disappointing number for Apes, which didn't do enough to build off its Thursday previews.

I suppose one could argue that Apes and Spidey split the audience, but Spidey has more of the family appeal to it, while Apes deals with a darker theme.

At any rate, Spidey HC is out of the running for the summer box office crown given its 61% drop from its second weekend. It's probably going to be a $300M film, but $400M is out of the question.

And Apes 3 will finish with less than Apes 2 -- on one hand, the studio seemed to expect that. On the other hand, given how much the critics loved it and how well received the first two films were, you would have though there might be more audience interest.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Sun Jul 16, 2017 12:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

On the previous post, the Apes estimate was reported by the Numbers. Box Office Mojo has a $56.5M estimate.

Still well below what the second film made its opening weekend.
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jdw
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Joined: 01 Sep 2005
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 16, 2017 12:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Spidey will blow by $300M. It's drop being worse than GotG2 is a problem in getting to $350M, but Spidey does have Summer Weekdays as an advantage to make up for some lost ground.

WW will win the Summer Crown. $400M is a question. It was less than $2M better than GotG3's 7th weekend. GotG2 had a strange low -19.7% drop on its 7th weekend, despite losing 1000+ theaters. Here's where it's a slight concern: GotG2 looks like it's close to tapping out, and that it doesn't have much legs beyond $390M. $1.3M full week last week, and just $500K last week. It's at $385.5M right now, just 399 theaters... there's not a ton left.

WW is just under $6M ahead of GotG2's pace right now. If GotG2 doesn't get much past $390M, then WW doesn't have margin yet to work with. It needs to keep expanding it's pace lead on GotG2.

We're at a point in it's release cycle where GotG2 was getting Summer Weekdays. WW was beating it by $400K+ every day Mon-Thu last week. It needs to keep those margins up.

-29.9% drop over the weekend for WW. That's really good this late. I think it still gets to $400M. But any signs of fall off put that at risk.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 21, 2017 7:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Spidey dropped behind WW's pace on Tue, and is dropping $1M+ a day on average on the weekdays. Makes it more clear that WW will win the crown.

Spidey is beating the daily numbers of GotG2. The problem is that it's gotten hammered on both weekends, and the Summer weekday numbers aren't coming close to making up for it. GotG2 did $34M on its third weekend, and it's hard to see Spidey doing that. What to look for would be if it can drop at a lower rate than GotG2 did on its third weekend, which might be signs of the weekend numbers matching in a few weekends.

We'll see from the weekend some hints on how far past $300M Spidey can go. I think $350M is pretty much out of the question barring some miracle hold this weekend.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 22, 2017 8:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dunkirk opened with almost $20M on Friday. This doesn't strike me as a movie that is massively frontloaded, so there probably won't be a big drop on Sat-Sun. Estimates currently are in the $50M+ range. I think it might be just a shade higher as most of the movies that it is being comped with aren't really true genre comps. Should get up over $100M. Not sure how far past that it gets, but that's more than I expected.

* * * * *

WW looks like it will pass GotG2's total by the end of the weekend.

It has to do 155% of what Suicide Squad had left in the tank at this point to get to $400M. It's coming off a week where it did 178% above, and the estimate for Fri is 156%. It continues to beat up SS on Mon-Thu. I think if it's 150%+ for this weekend, it's pretty much getting into the lock stage to get to $400M. It's still might take a while rather than blowing by it. But there are a lot of Summer Weekdays left, and Labor Day ahead.


* * * * *

Spidey is drifting far behind the pace of WW. It's biggest issue is a % drop that's behind GotG2. It's got enough legs left to get to $300M, but not much beyond that.
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Dave Dymond



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PostPosted: Mon Jul 24, 2017 12:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Will Marvel be happy with the business that Spidey is doing, or will it end up being viewed as a disappointment?
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Mon Jul 24, 2017 9:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dave, I suspect Sony and Marvel will be happy with it. Sony's own estimates for the opening for Spidey were well below where it actually opened. I think both studios knew there might be some franchise burnout and didn't expect the world from the new film.

---

Dunkirk finished with an estimated $50.5M for its opening weekend. The question will now be how good its legs are. Though no threat to win the summer box office crown, its legs will be the difference in whether it has a chance to make $200M.

Girls Trip already made back its budget with a $30.3M opening weekend. This could be one of the surprise summer hits -- though far from being a box office smash, if it reaches $100M in domestic take, the studio should be quite happy.

Spidey HC passed $250M this weekend. It's going to need to keep its weekday take going strong to have a shot at $300M.

War for the Planet of the Apes fell 63 percent despite strong reviews. I can only guess that there was just too much competition for it to stand out. After being so well received by critics, I'm sure the studio had been hoping for a better performance.

Valerian bombed big time with just a $17M opening weekend.

Baby Driver is up to $84M and looks like it will have enough in the tank to break $100M.

Wonder Woman is at $389M. I think it has enough left to reach $400M -- it all depends on how many theaters it keeps and how well it retains its weekend box office take.
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Steve Yohe



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PostPosted: Mon Jul 24, 2017 3:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Spider-Man made 571 mil world wide in it's second week. They're happy. Not many movies can take in $ like that. Sony did even have to do anything. It's a good movie & they know it.--Yohe
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jdw
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 26, 2017 8:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

They still have China and Japan to open in, along with some other markets. The last Spidey made $94M in China and $30M in Japan.

The last two Spidey's made $262M & $202M in the US. This one is going to top both of those, and end up over $300M. They made $757M and $708M worldwide. It's going to top those two numbers. It probably will end up around $300M in the US and another $500M overseas, which would put it over $800M. That's more than GotG1.

It also was made for $170M, compared to The Amazing Spider-Man being made for $230M, and it's likely that Amazing 2 was made for the same range of money. So this is typical MCU in making movies at a relatively cost effective fashion.

They also know that the #2 movies in each individual MCU movies has made more money than the #1. Only the group Avengers 2 in the entire series made less than the first one. So with the good vibes Spidey is giving off with viewers, they also feel that the second one will likely make even more money.

I think they're going to be happy.

They also have Peter showing up in Infinity Wars, and it also looks like he's being positioned as a key anchor to MCU 2.0 after most of the current group of Avengers run their course in the next two Avengers movies.

They're good.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 26, 2017 9:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

WW went past $390M on Tue. It needs to do 145% of what SS had left in the tank at this point. For the week, WW is doing 158% of WW... with Wed & Thu still left to go. In other words, if it made $0 on Wed-Thu, it still would have done 158% for the week.

It's a $400M lock barring something insane.

Beyond $400M gets interesting. Here are the all-time comic book movies that are in this range:

#5 $409,013,994 Iron Man 3
#6 $408,084,349 Captain America 3
#7 $403,706,375 Spider-Man
#8 $390,608,373 Wonder Woman

Hard to tell if it has enough in the tank to get to $410M. Though who knows. It's coming off a week where it made $10.6M, and already made $6.2M this week *before* Wed-Thu gets factored in. It has another month of Summer Weekdays, and Labor Day will be a small spike. It would be something if it did pass IM3 and Cap3.

What's completely insane is that it's made the same money in the US as it's made overseas. That pretty much never happens for these blockbusters.

* * * * *

I've been using Suicide Squad as a comp for WW's pace, figuring out how much it needed to stay ahead of SS to get to $400M. Well... it's also a useful comp for Spidey as they're both "later summer" releases:

08/05/16 SS
07/07/17 Spidey

Obviously, the earlier release benefits Spidey in the comps - it has more Summer Weekdays left on the clock than SS has at this point.

SS had the massive opening weekend advantage:

$133,682,248 SS
$117,027,503 Spidey

A $16M advantage. However, $14M of that was from *opening night*. SS was up by $17.6M by the first Monday.

Spidey has won *every* day since then. Some small initially, and then some in the millions.

Spidey is down by just $7.9M now. It cut off $2.7M in just the last two days.

While Spidey's declines aren't great relative to some of the DCU movies, it's better than SS:

Spidey vs SS
2nd Weekend: -62.2% vs -67.4%
3rd Weekend: -49.9% vs -52.1%

The weekend after this is SS's Labor Day weekend, so it's going to knock Spidey a bit in the face with those four days (it pulled in $12.7M). But Spidey will eventually get it's own Labor Day weekend, and probably is going to beat SS most of the rest of the days from here on out.

I feel a lot more comfortable about Spidey getting to $320M. It probably will catch SS, which got to $325M. If it passes SS soon, then you start looking at how quickly it's closing in on the massively front loaded BvS which got to $330M.

Interesting.

* * * * *

Dunkirk is ahead of Interstellar's pace. Interstellar did $188M. Not sure if it can hold that up, but it's daily % drops have also been better on Sun, Mon & Tue. Wed-Sun are going to be really interesting to watch. If it can match or better than -40.4% that Interstellar dropped in its second weekend, watch out.

Interstellar did do really good business 21st through 26th days of release, which were it's Thanksgiving Holidays days. Going to be touch for Dunkirk to match that. But it's got a lot of summer left, and probably less comp that Interstellar had. Atomic Blond should do good business. But it's not Hunger Games 3.

Interesting.

Steve - did you expect Dunkirk might have a shot at $175M to $200M+?

That would be super cool.
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