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Box Office Thread 2017
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Steve Yohe



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Location: Wonderful Montebello CA

PostPosted: Mon Sep 11, 2017 12:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

When the Exorcist opened it was playing in only 2 theaters in LA...Westwood & O.C. All everyone was talking about was the lines going around the building. I went with a bunch of friends on the first Monday & it was raining & cold. (At least for us people used to LA weather). We had to stay in line for four showings. It went around the theater and down the street. We were there for like 4 showings. By the time we got into the theater, people were panicking, worried they'd miss that showing & have to wait for another 1:30:00. Once we got in out of the cold & rain, we found some seats & sat. Then the room got real dark & the red letters came up on the screen & you were ready to have the shit scared out of you. People were freaking & then you got to see the devil. It was a night to remember.

When Linda & her cross stared, and her head did the 360, the same people who waited 6 hours were running for the door.

It was one of the first films to have long lines selling it to the public. After that they made sure everyone could see long lines in front of the theaters.

It was a huge hit. Like GONE WITH THE WIND, JAWS, GODFATHER it had been a huge book & people wanted to see it as a film.

I thought it was a bigger religious movie than Ben Hur or the Ten Commandments. You got to believe in god to believe in the devil.

I remember the theater owners build a fake window, like the one in the movie, on the outside walk over looking the line. There was light & a curtain blowing in the wind.

#1 rule in devil movies....Satan always wins. ---Steve Yohe
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jdw
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 12, 2017 8:07 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bob Morris wrote:
$117M opening weekend for It. Second largest opening for an R-rated film behind Deadpool, largest opening for any horror film.

"It" will best Get Out, which is the highest grossing horror film this year, and if it has any legs, will surpass The Exorcist for the highest grossing horror film of all time. Given how well Deadpool did over time, I'd say "It" should easily be a $300 film.


The actuals came in even higher: $123,403,419

That's a big positive towards $300M.

The worry that I would have is the Sunday numbers. Saturday was really good to show it wasn't massively frontloaded into Thu/Fri, but the drop on Sun wasn't good.

This is another movie to track against Suicide Squad. I get that they're not close to each other in terms of genre, but there really isn't a good genre or release date comp for It. The reason why I'd toss out SS at least initially is that it has a good deal of margin above $300M ($325M) while having a very strong opening ($133M) that isn't that far off from It's. SS was a bit frontloaded, though not as insanely frontloaded as BvS.

Looking ahead, SS has a fairly strong advantage of a month of Summer Weekdays climaxing with still being able to pull $12M+ on it's fifth weekend (Labor Day four-day weekend). That put it over $300M on that Monday, and it still had reasonable enough legs to pop another $25M.

It doesn't have any Summer Weekdays. It has no holidays, other than Columbus day that isn't universally a day off. Thanksgiving is a hell of a long ways off.

The positive for It is that it has good reviews, while SS had shit reviews.

SS has a $10M lead after Sunday. One reason Sun was also bad - It cut into the lead by $6M with that strong Sat, then gave $2M of it back on Sun. We not have a Mon-Thu where SS was in the Summer against It being back-to-school time. If It wins any of these Mon-Thu days this week, then I'd say it's a total lock for $300M. If it loses them big before winning Fri-Sun "close", then it makes $300M tougher. A SS comp gives it a lot of margin to work with ($25M), but that can go away fast when it's already down $10M and looks to have some weekday issues.

The Florida and Texas weather could impact the box office as well.

I think it has a good chance, but a good second week would be a good sign.
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Steve Yohe



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PostPosted: Wed Sep 13, 2017 8:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Spider-Man made 70 mil in China last week. It just opened.--Yohe
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jdw
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 14, 2017 12:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

It dropped $4.4M on Mon and $2.8M on Tue to SS, coughing up $7.2M of margin to $300M. That's the problem of Summer Weekdays vs School Weekdays.

It's down $17.5M to SS' pace, with that original $25M of margin to work with.

I think It can beat SS on the weekend. The Tue box office also had a big leap, though it still got hammered by SS. Maybe a positive sign. But $300M is going to take some work.

Steve Yohe wrote:
Spider-Man made 70 mil in China last week. It just opened.--Yohe


That's rather stout. Here's the opening weekends of the three most recent Spideys since the box office in China took off:

$13,233,782 Amazing Spider-Man 1
$46,450,000 Amazing Spider-Man 2
$69,240,992 Spider-Man: Homecoming

Looking at their total hauls from China:

$48,818,164 Amazing Spider-Man 1
$94,430,000 Amazing Spider-Man 2

SMH should end up in the $120M range in China.

It's up over $495M international. Only the two Avengers, Cap 3 (aka Avengers 2.5) and IM3 (aka Avengers 1 Aftermath) have topped it.

Worldwide, it will pass GotG2 to become #4 behind those four as well. It has a chance at $900M if the China number doesn't badly flatten.

They made Spidey for $25M production budget less than GotG2, and all those other four were quite a bit more expensive as well... and I don't think Spidey had a more insane advertising budget than those movies either.

I think they're really happy with this.

Buzz is that Peter is probably going to be their anchor star of the post Avengers 4 MCU. They have a plan of 1 Spidey for each year of High School (i.e. three more local NY Spideyverse movies), and will likely have him be a major player in the outside combo movie like Tony have been (the future equivs of the Avengers + Cap 3).
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Steve Yohe



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PostPosted: Sat Sep 16, 2017 8:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Wolf Warrior 2 is the #4 film of 2017 & only cost 30 mil.---Yohe
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Bob Morris



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
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Location: New Mexico

PostPosted: Sun Sep 17, 2017 9:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

$60M estimate for the second weekend of It.

For comparison, It's second weekend finished ahead of Deadpool's second weekend. Deadpool opened ahead of It ($135M vs. $123M) but It has shown better legs.

So $300M is a lock. It stands at $218.7M through the second weekend while Deadpool was at $236.8M through its second weekend. Deadpool still has an $18M lead, but if It can make up the difference on weekends, it has a better shot at Deadpool's mark of $363M.

But even if it doesn't catch Deadpool's total, $350M is a safe bet for It.

And the film has just a $35M budget, too -- a big deal as far as the studio would be concerned.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 08, 2017 6:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mediocre $31M opening for Blade Runner.

"It" went by $300M.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Wed Oct 11, 2017 5:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sean Keeley at The Comeback had a good take on why Blade Runner bombed despite getting mostly positive reviews.

http://thecomeback.com/pop-culture/blade-runner-2049-box-office-harrison-ford.html

Blade Runner really needed to have more focus on getting people to see the original film for the first time. I heard good things about the new movie, but when I went exploring the stores to see if the original was available on DVD or Blu-Ray, I didn't see it anywhere.

I know it was released in both formats a few years ago, but that's the problem -- it was a few years ago, rather than in the weeks leading up to the movie. It's hard to get people to see a sequel to a film that was a cult favorite, but nobody outside of its fanbase had any emotional attachment to it and thus no motivation to see it.
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Steve Yohe



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PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 12:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The 1st Blade Runner played in theaters the night before #2 opened.

Saw #2 last night with Westbrook & liked it even more.--Yohe
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Thu Oct 26, 2017 9:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The yearly box office to date:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/yearly/chart/?yr=2017&p=.htm

Five films passed the $300M mark and three passed $200M. There are a few films below that mark that would be called successes, based on their budgets.

Thor: Ragnarok is getting mostly positive reviews thus far, so it will be interesting to see if that carries over to a bigger box office than the first two. Justice League will be a wild card -- will it benefit from the popularity of Wonder Woman or will it get panned like Batman vs. Superman and fizzle after a big opening?

Of course, we know The Last Jedi is going to blow everybody out of the water.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Sun Oct 29, 2017 2:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I mainly share this week's Mojo weekend box office report for this tidbit.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4339&p=.htm

Quote:
In international news, Disney and Marvel's release of Thor: Ragnarok into 36 material markets this weekend delivered an estimated $107.6 million. Disney reports the opening is +4% ahead of Guardians of the Galaxy 2 and +22% ahead of Doctor Strange when comparing the same suite of territories at today's exchange rates.


The first Thor movie opened at $65M and the second opened at $85M -- the latter had the same opening as Doctor Strange.

I don't know if Thor 3 can reach a $100M opening, but $85M seems like a good bet, with $90M a reasonable number if you believe it will do better business than Doctor Strange. And given how well Thor 3 has been received thus far, I would be surprised if it doesn't do at least as well as Doctor Strange on opening weekend.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 29, 2017 11:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think $100M is a possibility.

Looking at what's done $100M this year:

$174,750,616 Beauty and the Beast
$146,510,104 Guardians of the Galaxy 2
$123,403,419 It
$117,027,503 Spider-Man
$103,251,471 Wonder Woman

Thor fits in with the comic books. Logan also opened far stronger than expected.

I think having Hulk helps - he can't carry a solo movie, but is a great supporting character and has been used great in the promos.

I think it's also helped by the gap in having a strong box office movie open. Let's say Thor 2 wasn't all that great of an opening relative to MCU movies. It came just a month after the past strong opening:

10/04 Gravity

Which then had very strong 2nd and 3rd weekends.

In turn, Dr Strange was a far better opening than expected. It opened three months after that last hit that year:

08/05 Suicide Squad

I think it got a bump because nothing had interested box office goers for a long time.

Thor 3 is right in the middle, with the last hit being:

09/08 It

It's been two months.

It only needs to get $15M past Thor 2 and Dr Strange. There is the vibe that it's the final Thor. It feels a bit like the start of the run towards Avengers 4, even if other movies have started this cycle.

I think it's going to do well. The buzz about the humor is likely to help top Thor 2's box office, and possibly Dr. Strange's and Cap 2's. It's hurt a bit with Justice League opening two weeks later, coming off Wonder Woman. On the other hand... that looks to be a darker movie even if Joss is trying to lighten it up with the reshoots. I think Thor's humor is likely to help its legs like GotG1's did.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Sun Nov 05, 2017 9:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

$121M estimated opening weekend for Thor Ragnarok.

$300M should be a lock. $400M will be a tougher mark to reach with Justice League and Last Jedi to be released in the coming weeks.

Still, a good sign for the MCU to have what will easily be the biggest take from the Thor films.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Mon Nov 13, 2017 10:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thor 3 pulled in $56.6M for its second weekend, a 53.9% drop, so it's about average in terms of how it's keeping the audience.

Thor 3 is at $211M now. Makes it tough to get to $400M with more competition coming its way. But $300M should still be easy enough to reach.

Daddy's Home 2 pulled in $30M and Orient Express pulled in $28.2M, so it was a pretty good weekend for the box office.

There's an embargo on Justice League reviews being released until a couple of days before the film's release, but initial reports is that it's a step in the right direction for the DCU films. It's not getting the level of praise Wonder Woman got, but far better received than other DCU films.
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