The OtherArena Forum IndexThe OtherArena Forum IndexThe OtherArena Forum Index The OtherArena
"Best not to think about it. I know that's a problem for you... not thinking. " -Steve Yohe
 
 FAQFAQ   SearchSearch   MemberlistMemberlist   UsergroupsUsergroups   RegisterRegister 
 ProfileProfile   Log in to check your private messagesLog in to check your private messages   Log inLog in 

Box Office Thread 2017
Goto page Previous  1, 2, 3 ... 11, 12, 13
 
Post new topic   Reply to topic    The OtherArena Forum Index -> Entertainment
View previous topic :: View next topic  
Author Message
jdw
Site Admin


Joined: 01 Sep 2005
Posts: 16429

PostPosted: Sun Nov 19, 2017 11:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Fri
$81,558,505 Batman v Superman
$64,893,248 Suicide Squad
$38,800,000 Justice League
$38,247,254 Wonder Woman

Sat
$50,657,088 Batman v Superman -37.9%
$38,578,832 Suicide Squad -40.6%
$35,253,398 Wonder Woman -7.8%
$33,050,000 Justice League -14.8%

Sun
$33,791,754 Batman v Superman -33.3%
$30,210,168 Suicide Squad -21.7%
$29,750,819 Wonder Woman -15.6%
$24,150,000 Justice League -26.9%

To me the key ones are (i) Friday and (ii) Sun.

This movie badly needed to open in the range of Suicide Squad at the very least. The predications were that it wasn't, and instead would be down in the WW levels. That would have been bad on it's own since the DCU movies other than WW have all been massively front loaded.

That it comes in near WW for the opening Friday is a disaster because it has zero chance of matching WW's legs... not even remotely close to the chance.

Then Sunday is a total disaster as it dropped a worse % on Sunday than SS.

I don't think the % drop relative to BvS on Sunday is terribly relevant this weekend as BvS had pocketed $132M by Saturday compared to $71M that JL pulled in.

But relative to SS, it's really bad to fall behind like that already. SS had $103M in the bank through Sun, which is more than JL made the whole weekend. Yet despite that frontload, it still had a better % drop than JL.

SS pulled in $27M on the coming Mon-Tue before starting its decline. I suspect that JL will beat SS over Wed-Sun, but it won't be close to enough to make up for the whole it will have dug. Worse, if it has close to the level of a typical Bad DCU Movie opening (which is all of them other than WW, the only Good DCU Movie), it's going to drop anyway never weekend by a bad number.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Steve Yohe



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
Posts: 2279
Location: Wonderful Montebello CA

PostPosted: Sun Nov 19, 2017 4:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

They should just have the Marvel people do their movies for them. Or reboot Batman....if this isn't killing Batman.--Yohe
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail
Bob Morris



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
Posts: 2670
Location: New Mexico

PostPosted: Tue Nov 21, 2017 11:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Pretty clear the DC Cinematic Universe in in serious doubt.

They're better off focusing on properties that audiences have shown an interest in rather than worrying so much about building the shared universe.

Wonder Woman did well as a solo flick, so they can do a sequel. Aquaman has already finished production. so they can roll it out and see if audiences like it. If they do, they can plan a sequel. If not, move on from it.

They can still do the Shazam film, but do it as a solo film not tied to another film.

I'd hold off on Batman for the time being, but revisit that, along with Superman, down the road as new franchises entirely. Suicide Squad is probably best not revisited, but who knows -- there may be interest in doing Harley Quinn as a solo property because her comic book is liked by DC fans.

They can revisit a Justice League film much later on if they get enough individual properties that people like. But it's pretty clear DC/WB bungled this from the start, and not solely because of Zack Snyder's vision. They really needed to get solo films going first, then build to the team-up.

And they had no excuse for not doing so because WB owned the rights to every DC property.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website
Bob Morris



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
Posts: 2670
Location: New Mexico

PostPosted: Sat Nov 25, 2017 3:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Coco appears to be en route to $70M for Thanksgiving weekend. It's already past $40M for Wednesday through Friday take. Will be interesting to see if this one has enough legs to get to $200M -- it's been a pretty well received Pixar film.

Justice League pulled in $35M for that same three-day period. Likely will finish with $55M for the full weekend. That will put it past $150M. Looks like $200M is going to be its ceiling, though. No chance at $300M -- it doesn't have the legs.

Thor 3 was past $267M as of Friday, so it looks like a safe bet to get to $300M. I don't know if it will have enough to reach $350M before Last Jedi hits theaters, though.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website
Dave Dymond



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
Posts: 27
Location: Toronto, Canada

PostPosted: Sun Nov 26, 2017 3:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yes, Coco bumped Justice League out of the top spot at the Box Office already. I read an article today that suggested that (considering the cost to produce the film, and the crazy promotional/advertising budget) it's entirely possible that Justice League will only break even, at best. That's pretty unreal, and a huge misfire for DC and WB, no matter how you look at it.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Visit poster's website AIM Address MSN Messenger
Bob Morris



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
Posts: 2670
Location: New Mexico

PostPosted: Mon Dec 04, 2017 7:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Coco passed $110M after its second weekend. Mojo is running a comparison with Tangled, another animated film released during the Thanksgiving weekend

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?id=tangledcoco.htm

Tangled did $200M and Coco already has a $14M lead on it. Even with Last Jedi coming out, there's a chance for Coco to get to $200M, given how well it's been received. It also has one more weekend ahead before Last Jedi comes out and the only new release is Just Getting Started, which is a comedy, so it's not likely to draw away the audience.

Justice League will pass $200M by this coming weekend, but with Last Jedi coming out, that film is going to lose any steam after that. Maybe it's a $210M film, but that's nowhere near what the studio was looking for.

Thor 3 is at $291M. Thor 2, which was released in early November as Thor 3 was, had about $13M left in the tank at this point, so if Thor 3 gets that, it will finish above $300M. Given that's it done better business than Thor 2, it's possible Marvel will want to leave it in theaters longer to see how far past $300M it gets. On the other hand, Last Jedi will take business away from Thor 3, so who knows how long it will stick around.

Still, it's another big win for Marvel Studios.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website
Bob Morris



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
Posts: 2670
Location: New Mexico

PostPosted: Sun Dec 10, 2017 9:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mojo updated its comparison for Coco to include Moana.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=daily&id=tangledcoco.htm

Moana had a bigger opening than Coco and, though Coco is slightly ahead of Moana's pace in recent days, I don't think it's going to catch it. But it's a good sign that Coco could close in on $225M.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website
Bob Morris



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
Posts: 2670
Location: New Mexico

PostPosted: Sun Dec 10, 2017 10:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

And since The Last Jedi will hit theaters this coming weekend, I'll throw out a question:

Will Last Jedi draw $1 billion domestic?

Force Awakens drew $936M and the initial buzz for Last Jedi is that it's really good.

On the other hand, the first Star Wars drew $307M upon its initial release, while Empire Strikes Back drew $209M upon its initial release. Empire's number was still strong for its time, but it didn't come close to the first film.

I suspect a lot will have to do with how much interest Force Awakens has generated in those who saw the Star Wars franchise in theaters for the first time. It's also going to be the last film featuring Carrie Fisher, so I'm sure people will wonder what's going to be Leia's fate.

I think Last Jedi should be a safe bet for $900M domestic. But it's going to be interesting to see how much further it can go past that.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website
jdw
Site Admin


Joined: 01 Sep 2005
Posts: 16429

PostPosted: Sun Dec 10, 2017 3:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think $800M is safe. Not sure about $900M or $1B. There was such a wait and desire and build up to SW7. We've had just one year since a SW movie (Rogue) and only two years since SW7.

The buzz is strong, and people who saw the premire loved it. But they loved the first one as well.

It would be great if it does $900M or $1B. But the second movies always day less than the first. Granted the last second one sucked, but the first second one was awesome.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
jdw
Site Admin


Joined: 01 Sep 2005
Posts: 16429

PostPosted: Sun Dec 10, 2017 3:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bob Morris wrote:
Mojo updated its comparison for Coco to include Moana.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=daily&id=tangledcoco.htm

Moana had a bigger opening than Coco and, though Coco is slightly ahead of Moana's pace in recent days, I don't think it's going to catch it. But it's a good sign that Coco could close in on $225M.


I think $225M looks like a lock given how far ahead of Tangled it already is. I'm thinking close to $240M given those decline rates relative to Moana. Agree that the gap is probably too much to close. But it's nice to see it's drawing, and perhaps will shake Pixar out of it's sequel phase.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Bob Morris



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
Posts: 2670
Location: New Mexico

PostPosted: Mon Dec 11, 2017 12:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

jdw wrote:
I think $800M is safe. Not sure about $900M or $1B. There was such a wait and desire and build up to SW7. We've had just one year since a SW movie (Rogue) and only two years since SW7.

The buzz is strong, and people who saw the premire loved it. But they loved the first one as well.

It would be great if it does $900M or $1B. But the second movies always day less than the first. Granted the last second one sucked, but the first second one was awesome.


I would think two counterpoints regarding Last Jedi to Empire Strikes Back are that it's Carrie Fisher's last film, which should raise curiosity as to how they write out Leia, and more importantly, the fact that Luke Skywalker was in the first film for the final minutes and people want to know more about what happened with him.

With Empire, it was known everybody would be back and the buzz mostly surrounded the fact it was the sequel to Star Wars. Boba Fett and Lando were new, notable characters and neither one was a character the movie was built around. Yoda was one who did become a popular character but didn't move the box office by his presence alone.

Luke is different because he's part of the "big three" among the Rebels in the original trilogy. People will want to know about what his role will be going forward, so that may give it a shot at $900M... especially if enough people who see it the first time want to see it again.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website
Bob Morris



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
Posts: 2670
Location: New Mexico

PostPosted: Fri Dec 15, 2017 11:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Per Mojo, Last Jedi drew $45M from Thursday previews. Not as high as Force Awakens but above Rogue One.

On its way to a $200M opening weekend, though likely to fall short of Force Awakens.

But we'll see how it does over the long haul.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website
jdw
Site Admin


Joined: 01 Sep 2005
Posts: 16429

PostPosted: Fri Dec 15, 2017 7:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

$57M SW7
$45M SW8
$29M R1

SW7 did $936M. R1 did $532.

R1 was less front loaded into Thu and Opening Weekend than SW7. SW8 is likely going to need to be closer to the front load % of R1 than SW7 to get to $800. I think that's possible, though I don't think is as much of a "safe" as I did on Sunday. How the weekend plays out will tell more.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Bob Morris



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
Posts: 2670
Location: New Mexico

PostPosted: Sun Dec 17, 2017 9:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mojo's estimates are that Last Jedi will draw $220M for its opening weekend.

Comparing each day's box office to Force Awakens (LJ on left, FA on right, LJ is estimates at this point).

$119.1M vs $104.7M
$68.2M vs $63.9M
$60.5M vs $51.2M

The estimates show a slightly lower drop from Friday to Saturday for Last Jedi, though it remained behind Force Awakens. The projected Sunday number would be a slightly higher drop from Saturday.

We'll see what Last Jedi's legs are like -- that's the critical part to determining how far it will go.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website
Bob Morris



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
Posts: 2670
Location: New Mexico

PostPosted: Sun Dec 17, 2017 10:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Here is the showdown Mojo has for Last Jedi, which includes Force Awakens, Jurassic World and Avengers.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=daily&id=openingweekendshowdown.htm

The key matchup is with Force Awakens, obviously. Force Awakens dropped about 34% from its Sunday to Monday number, then held steady until it delivered a strong Christmas weekend.

Rogue One's daily chart:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=starwars2016.htm

While Rogue One dropped further percentage-wise from Sunday to Monday, it picked up again on Christmas and New Year's weekends and showed better legs after that, allowing it to get well past $500M.

Ideally, Last Jedi will want to follow the Force Awakens path to have a shot at $900M. A Rogue One path probably puts it short of that mark.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website
Display posts from previous:   
Post new topic   Reply to topic    The OtherArena Forum Index -> Entertainment All times are GMT - 7 Hours
Goto page Previous  1, 2, 3 ... 11, 12, 13
Page 13 of 13

 
Jump to:  
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum
The OtherArena topic RSS feed 


Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2005 phpBB Group