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Box Office Thread 2018
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 25, 2018 11:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

For the 2018 Title, I tend to think what BP is doing just means that Avengers 3 is going to do batshit business. Remember this is made by the Russo Brothers, who have hit home runs with Cap2 and Cap3 aka Avengers 2.5. The anticipation for that will be nuts.... like $700M nuts.


Looking at the movies tossed up earlier in the wekk:

Quote:
It's $105M and growing on Deadpool, which made $363M in a similar Feb release.


$108,046,000 vs $56,470,167 2nd Weekend
$400,000,422 vs $236,865,054 Total

It crushed Deadpool's second weekend, and is an insane $163M+ ahead if a movie that had $127M left in the tank.

Quote:
It's $65M and growing on Cap3, which made $408M out of the Lead Off Spot rather than being released in February.


$108,046,000 vs $72,637,142 2nd Weekend
$400,000,422 vs $295,966,220 Total

It crushed Cap3's second weekend. Cap3 had $113M left in the tank.

Quote:
It's $50M up and growing on Avengers 2, which got to $459M.


$108,046,000 vs $77,746,929 2nd Weekend
$400,000,422 vs $313,402,397Total

It crushed Avengers 2's second weekend, and that had $146M left in the tank.


Quote:
It's $60M up on Beauty and the Beast, which was a March release and pocketed $500M+.


$108,046,000 vs $90,426,717 2nd Weekend
$400,000,422 vs $319,032,604 Total

BatB is tighter, and that one had legs. But it's $81M up, after takign the weekend by$18M.

Quote:
It's $20M up on Avengers, which made $623M. Panther is *not* doing $600M. But it has $140M+ of margin in Avengers pace to get to $500M.


$108,046,000 vs $103,052,274 2nd Weekend
$400,000,422 vs $373,071,647 Total

It won the second weekend over Avengers, but that puppy had $250M left in the tank. Panther dos not have that left in the tank.

I still think what this is shooting for is The Dark Knight's $534,858,444 for the #2 spot among Comic Book movies. Which it will hold until Avengers 3 comes out... and quite likely takes the #1 spot.

I think we'll likely see over the week days it's chances at $600M fade. The comp will be Jurassic World's Summer Weekdays.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Wed Feb 28, 2018 10:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Black Panther added another $8M to its tally Monday, which is just slightly ahead of the $7.9M Avengers pulled on its second Monday.

The next few days will be interesting in terms of what Black Panther draws compared to Avengers. While it won't draw the Week Four totals Avengers got, because Avengers had Memorial Day weekend, if Panther can stay at or ahead of Avengers' pace, it increases its chances at $600M.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sun Mar 04, 2018 2:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Panther is utterly insane at this point. It's beaten Avengers 15 out of 17 days to this point: it lost the 1st Saturday and the 2nd Friday. It's won 9 straight days since the last loss. Bonkers.

It has been getting beat up a bit by Jurassic World on weekdays, but it looks to have whacked it by $11M over the weekend to move back ahead of that one.

It's clearly a $600M movie at this point, topping The Dark Knight for the #2 comic book movie ever. The question is whether it has enough left to get to Avengers $623M to take the top spot for a while. It's $43M ahead of Avengers, which a hell of a lot of margin at this point. But Avengers has its Memorial Day coming up, and some Summer Weekdays that gave it good weekly totals. On the other hand, we're getting close to the wave of Spring Break weeks that can give Panther some weekday relief.

This is pretty much like Jurassic World at this point: a movie that had a chance to be "big" if things broke right instead becoming Insane Big. I don't think anyone could have predicted that these two movies would do $600M, and hitting $400M for each would have been a big win.

To a degree similar to what happened with Wonder Woman last year, except on a much bigger scale. Of course the MCU has a better base of fandom and success to build on compared to the ill will towards DC Murderverse that Wonder Woman had to swim upstream against.

To be honest, I'm not sure what's more impressive - BP or WW. I'm thinking BP, not just because it will rake in $200M more, but that it's done it in non-Summer, non-Christmas. WW did have Summer Weekdays to help once it got on the roll. On the other hand, that negative vibe about DC and WW opening at "only" $103M rather than $150M+ does reflect just how much it had to work to get to $400M.

Really impressive by Panther. Bonkers. :)
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Mon Mar 05, 2018 10:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The question is whether Black Panther can beat out Avengers on the fourth weekend. Two factors to keep in mind are:

* Avengers' fourth weekend came during Memorial Day and the holiday weekend factored into more people showing up.

* A Wrinkle in Time debuts this weekend. Now, while the film itself is based on a book that doesn't deal directly with issues pertaining to black culture, it does have a black director, so that should spark some interest there. Just as importantly, because it's based on a popular book, there will be overlap with the MCU audience to begin with.

The counterpoint in Black Panther's favor is that it's been beating Avengers by just enough on most weekdays, thus allowing it to stay ahead of Avengers' pace.

It's going to be an interesting weekend, for sure -- particularly if A Wrinkle in Time gets a lot of good reviews.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Sun Mar 11, 2018 12:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Black Panther added another $41.1M, per weekend estimates.

It's $49M ahead of The Avengers pace and, if the weekend number holds up, it's going to pass it to become MCU's highest domestic drawing film.

A Wrinkle in Time didn't do much at all to dent Black Panther's tally. It drew an estimated $33.3M for its opening weekend. Reviews were mixed, which probably didn't help with its initial domestic draw.

It's hard to see any film in the coming weeks challenging Black Panther, so it could be a while before another film takes the weekend box office crown from it.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Mon Mar 19, 2018 2:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Black Panther won its fifth straight box office weekend. It pulled in another $26.6M and passed $600M domestic take.

It's going to beat Avengers to be the highest grossing superhero film of all time. It's also going to outdraw The Last Jedi and has a very real chance of beating Jurassic World.

I don't know if it has the legs to reach $700M domestic, but at this point, I wouldn't rule it out. Jurassic World has $60M left in the tank after its fifth weekend -- getting that alone puts Black Panther near $670M. So getting to $700M isn't out of the question.

It's also at $1.1B worldwide. Just amazing.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Mon Mar 19, 2018 2:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Here's the 2018 box office so far.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/yearly/chart/?yr=2018&p=.htm

Peter Rabbit quietly put together a solid run and reached $100M on a $50M budget. Safe to say the studio is pleased with that,

A Wrinkle in Time is past $60M. It has an outside chance of reaching $100M. While Mojo doesn't have the budget listed, my understanding is the budget is far less than what Tomorrowland had.

Fifty Shades Freed was lucky enough to get past $100M domestic. Mazel tov.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 19, 2018 9:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bob Morris wrote:
Black Panther won its fifth straight box office weekend. It pulled in another $26.6M and passed $600M domestic take.

It's going to beat Avengers to be the highest grossing superhero film of all time. It's also going to outdraw The Last Jedi and has a very real chance of beating Jurassic World.

I don't know if it has the legs to reach $700M domestic, but at this point, I wouldn't rule it out. Jurassic World has $60M left in the tank after its fifth weekend -- getting that alone puts Black Panther near $670M. So getting to $700M isn't out of the question.

It's also at $1.1B worldwide. Just amazing.


Agreed that $700M is in play. Key thing is that it's beat JW Tue-Thu on the weekdays. It's already destroying it on the weekends. Here's how much it is killing JW:

4th Fri: $530,898,385 vs $539,128,530 = -$8,230,145
5th Sun: $605,027,218 vs $590,689,565 = $14,337,653

In 9 days, Panther picked up $22,567,798 on JW... 4-5 *weeks* into release.

It's now $14M up on a movie that made $652M. There's no evidence that it's not going to stay ahead of JW, or that it's not going to grow that lead. If it stays $14M ahead, that gets to $666M. It's not massively far from there to $700M if it keeps growing.

It's not going to put another $22M on JW over the next 9 days... I don't think it will. But next weekend, JW was down to $11M. BP would have to drop 57.0% next weekend to go that low... and there's no way in hell it's going to drop close to that amount. It's % drop *every* weekend has been less than JW's. If it simply matches JW's 6th weekend drop (36.9%), it will make $16,818,818 next weekend, which will beat JW by $5,363,843. That's just a sign of even how this late it's putting more money in the bank.

My guess is that next weekend we'll see if it moves from "chance" to "good chance" to get to $700M.

Which is INSANE!!!!!

:)
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Sun Mar 25, 2018 12:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Pacific Rim 2 won this past weekend's box office crown with a $28M opening.

The first Pacific Rim opened at $37.2M as a July release and was a $100M film. Hard to see the second film reaching $100M -- it hasn't generated enough positive reviews or buzz to get there.

Black Panther added $16.6M to its take, per early estimates. Assuming that holds up, it will be $5M better than Jurassic World on its sixth weekend and will be $19M ahead for the total take through its sixth weekend.

It still has an outside chance at $700M, though it's going to be harder to reach it. But $675M is a safe bet, perhaps $680M.

And... it has surpassed Avengers to be the highest domestic grossing superhero film of all time.

Among other films, A Wrinkle In Time is estimated to pass $73M and Tomb Raider is estimated to pass $41M. Wrinkle may be hard pressed to reach $100M at this point. The new Tomb Raider film isn't drawing like the 2001 release did and that one finished at $131M. Not seeing the new film as a $100M franchise either.

Ready Player One is the next film to keep an eye on.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Sun Apr 01, 2018 5:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ready Player One debuted in theaters on Thursday and it's already past $50 -- $53.2M for its first four days, $41.2M for Friday through Sunday estimates.

Seems like it's a safe bet for $100M, though who knows how far past that mark it will go.

Black Panther hit $650M. It entered its seventh weekend and, with $11M, blew away Jurassic World's $7.1M and was ahead of Avengers' $8.9M. Panther's number nearly equaled the seventh weekend tally for Force Awakens.

Now, Panther has no chance of catching Force Awakens, but if Panther can hold even with that film for the remainder of its run, it will finish around $680M, making it the third-highest domestic grossing film of all time. I don't think anybody could have predicted it would finish that high.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Mon Apr 09, 2018 9:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

A Quiet Place had an estimated $50M opening weekend.

Mojo has comps with The Conjuring and Split, both which performed quite well at the box office.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?id=quietplace.htm

Given the positive reviews Quiet Place received, I wonder if this one might have a shot at $150M.

--

Black Panther passed Titanic this past weekend to become the third-highest domestic grossing film of all time.

It pulled in $8.4M this past weekend, which put it ahead of Force Awakens for the same weekend (eighth weekend). Panther has no chance of catching Force Awakens, but how it finishes out compared to Force Awakens is important in terms of Panther's chances of hitting $700M.

Force Awakens had $30M left in the tank at this point. Panther matching that puts it at $695M. But if Panther exceeds Force Awakens by just $5M in its final weeks, it will be a $700M film.

It will be interesting to see how the theater count for Panther will hold up in the coming weeks, because that's the key to whether or not it will make it to $700M.

--

Ready Player One dropped just 40 percent from its first weekend with $25M for its second weekend. That should ensure it outdraws the movies Mojo is comparing it to.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=weekend&id=rpo.htm

I don't think Ready Player One will have enough to get to $150M, but it's doing better than some may have expected.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 11, 2018 12:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think Panther is pretty close to a lock to get to $700M. It's $34M up on JW, and destroying it. JW had $20M left in the tank at this point, and it sure looks like Panther had comfortably more. Only a -24.2% drop this past weekend.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Sun Apr 15, 2018 1:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The weekend estimates show Rampage just ahead of A Quiet Place for first place, $34.5M to $32.6M.

Quiet Place is just shy of $100M and looks like a safe bet for $150M.

Black Panther added $5.3M to its take. $700M is still within reach, but it was behind Force Awakens' take for the same weekend.

Two weeks until Infinity War and then we'll find out how much that one draws. :)
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jdw
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 17, 2018 8:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bob Morris wrote:
Black Panther added $5.3M to its take. $700M is still within reach, but it was behind Force Awakens' take for the same weekend.


I think JW is a good comp, since FA was during Christmas which creates an odd frontload over those holiday weeks.

JW had the advantage of Summer Weekdays, yet BP has only lost a couple of weekdays from Week 4 on. We're in Week 9 now, so that's a helluva a long time. It nearly doubled JW last week, then killed it by triple over the weekend.

JW had about $17M left in the tank. $17M doesn't get BP to $700M, but it's $39M ahead of a movie that made $652M. I don't think it's going to lost ground on JW, so it just has to beat JW by an additional $9M the rest of the way. I think it's got a very decent shot.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Wed Apr 18, 2018 8:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

A Quiet Place is probably the most intriguing of the films right now, in terms of the box office draw.

It's already past $100M as of Monday. Mojo has a comp with Split and The Conjuring.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=daily&id=quietplace.htm

As I mentioned earlier, $150M is a lock. What's interesting, though, is whether it might past Get Out among the top-drawing horror films.

Here's the daily box office breakdown for Get Out:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=blumhouse2.htm

Get Out drew $33M its first weekend but $28M in it second -- that's just a 15 percent drop, a rare feat.

On the other hand, A Quiet Place dropped just 34 percent from its first to its second weekend. It has a $21M lead on Get Out, though it lost a bit of ground during the second weekend.

Still, it has a chance to reach $175M -- and Get Out did $176M. It will be interesting to see how well A Quiet Place retains its audience over time.
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