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Box Office Thread 2018
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Bob Morris



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
Posts: 2762
Location: New Mexico

PostPosted: Mon Apr 23, 2018 9:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

A Quiet Place added $22M this past weekend. That compares favorably to Get Out, which drew $20.7M

Quiet Place has $22M up on Get Out, which had $65M left in the tank. Quiet Place getting that puts it near $200M. I don't think Quiet Place has that much left, but it's at $132M and needs just $43M to reach $175M.

So I think Quiet Place has a good chance of hitting that mark.

--

Black Panther added $4.6M this past weekend. Its chances of reaching $700M are improving. We'll find out how well it performs with Infinity War hitting theaters this weekend.
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Bob Morris



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
Posts: 2762
Location: New Mexico

PostPosted: Sat Apr 28, 2018 8:09 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Infinity War drew $39M from Thursday previews.

The top three Thursday previews in recent years were:

Force Awakens - $57M
Last Jedi - $45M
Harry Potter 7.2 - $43.5M

Last Jedi may be the comp to start with. It pulled in $220M its opening weekend. There's a chance Infinity War could do better -- Mojo was projecting $230M.
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Bob Morris



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
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Location: New Mexico

PostPosted: Sun Apr 29, 2018 9:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

$105.9M opening day for Infinity War (Thursday previews plus Friday box office).

$250M estimated opening weekend. That's slightly higher than Force Awakens.

WOW!

It's already estimated at $630M worldwide, too.

I don't know if Infinity War can stay ahead of Force Awakens for its entire run, but it's got several weeks in which it's almost certain to lead the box office.

Fox moved up Deadpool 2 to May 18, then there's the Han Solo film debuting May 25, so Infinity War is going to have some strong competition that may keep it from beating Force Awakens.

Still, Infinity War is locked in at $500M and it's got to be a $600M film, regardless of what the chief competitors draw in the coming weeks. $700M is a possibility, but the question is how far beyond $700M it will go.

Something tells me it's going to be a massive summer for the box office.
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jdw
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Joined: 01 Sep 2005
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 29, 2018 11:00 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Given Panther is closing in on $700M, you've got to think this is getting there with that opening. It's opening at $48M ahead, and is likely to beat Panther again next week and during the weekdays this week. Panther was at $403M after the second weekend. Avengers 4 is likely to be closer to $500M than $450M. If it's over $500M at the end of next weekend, it will blow by $700M with ease.

I don't think it's topping Force Awakens, and getting to $900M would be a surprise. But $800M is in play given how insane the business for Panther has been. Panther closing in on $700M pretty much alters what's possible for the MCU at the box office.
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Steve Yohe



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
Posts: 2497
Location: Wonderful Montebello CA

PostPosted: Sun Apr 29, 2018 11:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I wonder if that ending killed off repeat viewing? I like the look of the Hans Solo movie.--Yohe
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jdw
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PostPosted: Tue May 01, 2018 3:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The early trailers of Solo were mediocre. The most recent two make it look a lot more interesting, especially the one they're showing before Avengers.
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khawk20



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
Posts: 229

PostPosted: Tue May 01, 2018 5:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kinda surprised they didn't hold the Solo movie until Christmas as they did with the Rogue One movie, unless they have something else Star War-sy set to debut around Christmas again.
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Bob Morris



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
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Location: New Mexico

PostPosted: Tue May 01, 2018 10:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm surprised they aren't rolling out the Han Solo film at Christmas as originally planned. The films that are being released in December right now:

Mortal Engines
Animated Spider-Man film (based on Miles Morales)
Aquaman
Bumblebee
Alita: Battle Angel
Holmes and Watson
Mary Poppins Returns

My only guess is that Disney didn't want the Solo film conflicting with the Mary Poppins film, which I suspect the studio wants to go big.

The sci-fi films out could draw interest, but none of them strikes me as a draw to the point that the Star Wars franchise draws.
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Bob Morris



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
Posts: 2762
Location: New Mexico

PostPosted: Tue May 01, 2018 12:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

First Monday box office:

Infinity War: $24.7M
Black Panther: $40.1M*
Jurassic World: $25.3M

Black Panther's first Monday was President's Day, so it benefitted from many people having the day off from work or school. But that Infinity War is staying in line with Jurassic World is a good sign.

Black Panther pulled in $20.2M on its first Tuesday. Infinity War drawing a similar number puts it past $300M and is a good sign for its chances of reaching $700M.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Wed May 02, 2018 8:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Don't forget that JW had all Summer Weekdays.

The whole thing for Panther was to "stay close enough" to JW's weekdays early on and then kick its ass on the weekend. Eventually, it weekdays also beat JW.

Same will go for Infinity War: stay closer enough on the weekdays, then smack around the $106M that JW made on its second weekend. My guess is it will.
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Bob Morris



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
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Location: New Mexico

PostPosted: Fri May 04, 2018 9:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tuesday and Wednesday comps:

Infinity War: $23.4M T, $16.9M W
Black Panther: $20.8M T, $14.6M W
Jurassic World: $24.3M T, $19.8M W

Infinity War beat Black Panther both days and kept it close with Jurassic World both days.

Infinity War should break past $400M after this weekend.

Black Panther, by the way, is up to $689M. It pulled in $4.7M last week and is still playing in more than a thousand theaters. Pretty clear the studio will want to leave it there until it hits the $700M mark.

Back to Infinity War -- its chance of reaching $700M continue to look better with each day it stays at pace with Black Panther and Jurassic World.
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Bob Morris



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
Posts: 2762
Location: New Mexico

PostPosted: Mon May 07, 2018 7:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Second weekend numbers:

Infinity War: $112.4M (estimate)
Black Panther: $111.6M (actual)
Jurassic World: $106.5M (actual)

Infinity War's actual total might come in a bit higher (that was the case with opening weekend estimates versus actual numbers). But it's a higher percentage drop from the first to the second weekend for Infinity War when compared to the other two.

Infinity War still has a $47M lead over Black Panther, so it's still well on its way to becoming a $600M film, but getting to $700M will be trickier given the percentage drop from its first to second weekend.

Again, there will be plenty of films competing for Infinity War's audience, something that Black Panther didn't have as much an issue with. Deadpool 2, the Han Solo film, Incredibles 2 and the next Jurassic World film are all going to cut into Infinity War's audience.

Still, a film reaching a $600M take can hardly be considered a disappointment -- and that Infinity War has already passed $1B worldwide in a record 11 days is flat out amazing.
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Bob Morris



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
Posts: 2762
Location: New Mexico

PostPosted: Thu May 10, 2018 9:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Infinity War added $18.8M Monday and Tuesday. It's staying at pace with Black Panther and should pass $475M domestic once Wednesday's numbers come in.

It should have no problem breaking $500M this weekend.
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Bob Morris



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
Posts: 2762
Location: New Mexico

PostPosted: Mon May 14, 2018 7:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Infinity War won its third straight weekend with $61.8M. It's just $3M short of $550M domestic gross.

The third weekend is below Black Panther's third but exceeded Jurassic World's third, so it still has a shot at $700M.

Speaking of $700M films, Black Panther pushed past $696M this past weekend. Not hard to see that the studio wants this to stick around as long as possible to crash that barrier.

Things will get interesting the next couple of weeks, though, because here's the release schedule.

May 18: Deadpool 2
May 25: Solo: A Star Wars Story
June 8: Ocean's 8
June 15: The Incredibles 2

Like I said a few weeks ago, it's going to be a crowded summer for potential blockbusters.
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jdw
Site Admin


Joined: 01 Sep 2005
Posts: 16634

PostPosted: Sun May 20, 2018 10:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

It will be interesting to see what the actuals are for DP2. The estimates fell off massively on Sunday vs DP1, down $11M. That's a little surprising as it's gotten pretty much exactly the same reviews as the first one, and has pretty decent audience response.

It doesn't have much of a post-Avengers pocket to draw in - Solo is next week.
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