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Box Office Thread 2018
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Bob Morris



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
Posts: 2757
Location: New Mexico

PostPosted: Mon May 21, 2018 2:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Weekend actuals:

Deadpool 2: $125.5M
Infinity War: $29.4M

Deadpool 2 was $7M under the first Deadpool's opening weekend. I think the biggest factor is that people who were eager to see Deadpool in his first feature film weren't as eager to see the second film -- perhaps wanting to take a "wait and see" approach, even with the introduction of Deadpool's main nemesis Cable to the mix.

It's hard to see Deadpool 2 staying at the same pace as the first film, given the rest of the competition it will face this summer. But Deadpool 2 should be a lock for $200M and still has a shot at $300M. Getting to $350M will be a tougher task, though.

Infinity War matched Jurassic World's fourth weekend. Jurassic World had $96M left in the tank at this point. I don't know if Infinity War has that much left, but it's at $595M domestic and should have plenty left to beat Jurassic World's $652M domestic gross.

The question is whether Infinity War can get to $700M. It has a $34M lead on Black Panther but its fourth weekend is far behind Panther's. I suspect Infinity War will lose a lot more of its audience to the Solo film.

Of course, Infinity War is blowing Black Panther away in terms of worldwide box office, so not reaching $700M is in no way a disappointment. It just may not be as big domestically as Black Panther is.
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Bob Morris



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
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Location: New Mexico

PostPosted: Mon May 28, 2018 2:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Not exactly a strong opening weekend for the Solo movie: $84.75M estimated for Friday through Sunday, $103M estimated for the four-day weekend.

It's way behind Rogue One, which opened at $172.6M in its first four days.

I know some are blaming the trailers (which not many people found exciting) to be an issue, but I wonder if it would have been better to have Solo open during the Christmas season. It would have avoided a crowded summer box office field and have less competition.

--

Deadpool 2 went up to $219M through Memorial Day. It's $22M behind Deadpool's pace, which still puts Deadpool in good position to reach $300M, but may mean it falls short of $350M.

--

Infinity War added $17.4M on Friday through Saturday, then another $3.8M on Memorial Day. Still well on track for $650M.

On top of that, it's passed $1.9B worldwide. Which is just... WOW!
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sat Jun 02, 2018 9:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Solo is turning into pretty close to a bomb. If we knock what Batman vs Superman made relative to potential/expectations, Solo is doing even worse.

Again... too bad. I liked the movie, and liked what it set up for future movies. They have issues making those happen.
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Steve Yohe



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
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Location: Wonderful Montebello CA

PostPosted: Sun Jun 03, 2018 2:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Can you believe that a Star Wars movie could be a bomb?? In it's second week, with nothing opening, there was no one at the movies tonight...a Saturday night. The theaters are dumping on it. Once a film is labeled a bomb it's dead. Because of all the production problems...I heard nothing good about it, before the release. The first trailer didn't help. Having to film a movie twice is never good. Star Wars used to be the closest thing to a sure bet in Hollywood. And I think it's one of the best SW movies.---Yohe
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Bob Morris



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Location: New Mexico

PostPosted: Mon Jun 04, 2018 7:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Solo dropped 65 percent in its second weekend.

While it's true there wasn't a lot of competition debuting this weekend, I still believe the crowded summer field has a lot to do with its lack of success.

Disney rolled it out in the same summer as Infinity War, and while that's been in theaters for a while, I think people who were prioritizing what films to see put that one higher on their lists.

There's also Jurassic World 2 and Incredibles 2 coming out later this summer and you can bet a lot of the audiences that would want to see Solo were putting those films near the top of their lists, too. Throw in Deadpool 2's debut being moved up and that's drawing some people away as well.

Meanwhile, go look at the current slate of films that are being rolled out prior to or during the Christmas break:

* Spider-Man animated film.
* Mortal Engines
* Alita: Battle Angel
* Aquaman
* Bumblebee
* Holmes and Watson
* Mary Poppins Returns

There isn't anything on that list that strikes me as a film that's going to pull in $300M or more. Maybe one of the films gets so well received that people flock to it, but it's not what I'd call a crowded field.

I have no idea if Solo would have done better business if it premiered during the holidays, like the other Star Wars films have.

I think Steve raises a good point about the trailers for Solo, along with the change in directors.

But with families on budgets and a bunch of films that people are excited about, people pick and choose what they want to see. Solo clearly has been bumped to lower on their priority lists.

Again, I don't know if moving it to Christmas would have helped.

But I don't think we should overlook how crowded this summer box office field was.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 04, 2018 8:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

If it opened in December, it looks like 12/14 would have been the day.

Aquaman may have stayed, looking at how well Jumanji did last year (though that was great legs rather than a great opening). Or it could have moved - 11/30 & 12/7 are very soft. Probably would have been smart, but one never looks at DCU being very smart.
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Steve Yohe



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PostPosted: Tue Jun 05, 2018 12:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I knew the actor & liked him a lot....and I don't think anyone could have done it better....but the casual movie go'ers didn't know him, and he had a strange name.... More that any other SW film...this was a one man show that needed a super star. The fans didn't buy him, because they had strong feeling about Ford.

They need to get the next SW film out & get it over with... then lock it down for three years. Wait for the fans to be yelling for another one. Then...if I'm right..Ehrnreich will be that super star...and they can go back to Hans Solo.

Unless he gets blamed for Solo bombing, & he may be doing TV.

I would keep this movie in theaters for some time. It may have legs. Might be one of those movies that old people go too.
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Bob Morris



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
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Location: New Mexico

PostPosted: Wed Jun 06, 2018 1:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think Steve has an excellent point -- everyone associates Han Solo with Harrison Ford. And that's a pretty high bar to clear.

It's also possible people just weren't interested in another origin story.

And there's that select few who are such ardent fanboys who grumble about how something "isn't canon," though I tend to believe their impact is minimal.

But I think Rogue One did well because it explored something that was known about the Star Wars storyline, but most of the characters were brand new and it was a specific storyline that hadn't been explored in great detail.

When you are doing an origin story for a character who is well known and loved, that's a bit trickier, especially when people associate that character with a certain actor.

At any rate, we know Disney isn't going to give up on the Star Wars franchise any time soon. Force Awakens, Rogue One and Last Jedi have all made so much money, Disney will keep rolling out the films, with the only likely adjustments regarding which films do and don't pull in audiences.
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Bob Morris



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Location: New Mexico

PostPosted: Mon Jun 11, 2018 2:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This past weekend's box office:

Ocean's 8: $41.6M
Solo: $15.7M
Deadpool 2: $14.1M
Hereditary: $13.5M
Infinity War: $7.2M

Ocean's 8 has a good shot at reaching $100M domestic. Deadpool 2 gets closer to the $300M mark, but $350M is going to be harder to achieve now (it's at $279.1M right now). Infinity War has just a $5M lead on Black Panther to this point, so I doubt it's getting to $700M domestic.

Meanwhile, the Solo film may not even get to $200M domestic. Oof.

--

Jurassic World 2 is already opening overseas and grossed $150M. I'm sure all eyes will be on it when it opens up in two weeks.

But first, it's The Incredibles 2 and I'm thinking it could be another big one for Pixar, given the positive reviews coming in so far.

https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/incredibles_2

The first Incredibles did a $70M opening weekend in November 2004 and $261.4M overall.

If Incredibles 2 opens to $75M or more, that's a good sign for it approaching the first film's total tally.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 11, 2018 8:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Solo will get to $200M. It only needs $24M to get there. Pirates 5 was far behind the pace of Solo and still had $36M left in the tank at this point.

Ocean's could do some chick/date business. There isn't really anything in that genre for a while, and summer is hitting. Agree that it has a good shot at $100M, and with some leg could go comfortably beyond that. Pitch Perfect 2 opened with $69M, and made $180M+. Here's some others where the opener/total multiplier is fairly high:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?id=gtvb.htm

Deadpool is getting interesting. DP2's 3rd weekend drop was fairly close to DP1, and its 4th weekend drop was quite a bit better. DP1 had $50M left in the tank at this point, and did that with zero Summer Weekdays (though it had some Spring Break Weekdays). It could get to $320M, which given the disappointing opening and big drop the second week would end up being a positive. It's done decent business world wide.

Agree on Infinity War fading relative to BP. It did have a smaller % drop on the weekend than BP, which is a first. It would badly need to both keep that up for a lot of weeks (not likely) and also get some Summer Weekday bonus (which likely isn't going to be enough).

BP is likely going to be left out long enough to get to $700M. $610,240 away, coming off a weekend where it pulled in just $138,693. I'm hazzarding a guess that Summer Weekdays and the 4th of July will push it over the top, but not much beyond.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 15, 2018 9:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Looks like Incredibles 2 is going to be huge. Monster Thursday numbers.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Sun Jun 17, 2018 7:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mojo has a Friday estimate of $71.5M for Incredibles 2.

For perspective, Black Panther drew $75.9M its opening Friday. Panther added nearly $66M on Saturday and $60M on Sunday.

If Incredibles 2 adds $60M each on Saturday and Sunday, that would mean a weekend draw of $191.5M -- which would crush the largest opening weekend for a Pixar film, Finding Dory, at $135M.

And that film finished with $486.2M.

If Incredibles 2 holds its audience well the next two days, we could be looking at a $500M film.

======

In other news, Infinity War surpassed $2B worldwide this week.

It will be interesting to see where it finishes overall. Infinity War won't catch Avatar ($2.78B) and may not catch Titanic ($2.18B) but it might have enough left to catch Force Awakens, which drew $2.068B worldwide.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 17, 2018 2:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

$180M opening. Summer Weekdays. Pixar. Well rated sequel of beloved movie (like Dory and Toy Story 2). Plays to older kids/adults even better than Dory because of the Super Hero aspect. This is going to be a monster. I'm thinking more along the lines of $550M rather than just topping Dory and $500M. It even has a chance of $600M with that insane opening.

Panther is just under $400K away from $700M. Actually improved it's box office slightly this week.

Avengers fell behind Panther's pace on either Saturday or Sunday depending on the actuals. It does have Summer Weekdays coming up, but that doesn't look to be enough to take the lead back. Panther looks like the #1 movie of the year, which is beyond amazing.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Mon Jun 18, 2018 8:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Indeed, I was way too conservative with my original remarks about Incredibles 2. Should have been looking more closely at Finding Dory.

The real issue about how far Incredibles 2 will go is Jurassic World 2 opens this weekend.

Compare that to Finding Dory, whose competition its second week was:

* Independence Day: Resurgence -- sequel to a popular film that drew worse reviews than the first, didn't have all the stars back from the first film and failed to generate buzz.
* The Shallows -- horror film that didn't debut in as many theaters as ID2.
* Free State of Jones -- action drama that wasn't a wide release, either.

Jurassic World 2, thus far, is generating more buzz than any of the films that Dory went up against in its second weekend, plus it's going to be a wide release.

Keep in mind that the first Jurassic World film drew $208M on opening weekend -- it was a major surprise, given that while it drew more positive than negative reviews, critics weren't in love with it (per Rotten Tomatoes, the average rating was 6.7 out of 10).

Given that families made up a fair amount of the first film's audience, there's a chance it pulls away the audience for Incredibles 2 -- and that may be what keeps Incredibles 2 from getting to $550M.

Or...

It's possible Jurassic World 2 suffers the same fate as Solo, in that there's too much competition for it to overcome, or that the negative reviews overwhelm the positive ones and it can't pull in the same audience the first film did.

Going to make for an interesting weekend.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 18, 2018 9:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think the thing that blows me away about Incredibles 2 is that Sunday number. It didn't just drop less than Dory, but it dropped less than TS3:

-10.8% Incredibles 2
-13.5% TS3
-24.0% Dory

That is insane given how frontloaded into Thu-Fri that it was.

Dory and TS3 dropped 46% the second weekend. If Incredibles 2 drops drops 50% (i.e. WORSE), that's still a $91M second weekend. That will come after almost certainly topping the $78M that Dory made Mon-Thu. $182M+$78M+$91M = $352M in 10 days by the end of next weekend with the rounding. Dory was at $286M.

Inside Out opened to $90M on the monsterous second weekend of JW ($106.6M), and still had Good Pixar Movie Legs that got it to $356M. Thinks about that - Inside Out opened nearly $100M below Incredibles 2, had JW opposite it eating up viewers, and had Minions open up to $110M in its 4th weekend... and still got to $356M.

$500M is a lock, and $550M is a pretty decent bet. We don't have an animated movie until Hotel Transylvania 3 on 7/13 (nearly a month). While that series does well, it's a $150M to $170M franchise rather than a the monster box office of peak level Despicable Me was when Minions came out.
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