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Box Office Thread 2018
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Bob Morris



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Location: New Mexico

PostPosted: Mon Jun 25, 2018 7:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

$150M opening weekend for Jurassic World 2. My understanding is the studio expected it to open in that range, so it really isn't a disappointing number. It's just not going to be the phenom that the first movie was.

Still, $300M is a lock and $400M is a possibility.

Incredibles 2 dropped 55 percent from its opening weekend, but it still beat out Finding Dory in its second weekend with $80.9M. That bodes well for its chances of getting to $550M.

Ocean's 8 broke $100M domestic this past weekend and seems to be doing a good job keeping its audience.

Deadpool 2 broke $300M. I don't know if it will get to $350M, but $325M should be within its reach.

Infinity War is getting closer to $670M, though I doubt the studio will leave it in American theaters until it hits $700M. It's drawing so well overseas that the studio won't be thinking about that number domestically, I believe.

Black Panther is about to break $700M domestic. It's drawing just enough that it should break it by this coming weekend.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Mon Jul 02, 2018 9:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Second weekend numbers:

Jurassic World: $106M
Jurassic World 2: $60M

Jurassic World 2 has a shot at $400M (it's at $264M now), but it's nowhere near the phenom the first one was. To get to $400M, it can't afford to keep bleeding its audience.

The first film had $250M left in the tank. If the second film gets half that, it finishes around $390M.

So $400M isn't out of the question, but the more it loses its audience, the more difficult it will be.

=========

Third weekend numbers

Finding Dory: $41.8M
Incredibles 2: $45.5M

Incredibles 2 continues to beat Dory, which had $114M left in the tank at this point. Incredibles 2 is at $439M now and matching Dory gets it past $550M. If it keeps enough of a cushion over Dory, it might close in on $575M.

==========

Infinity War added another $1.4M this past weekend and should pass $675M in the coming days. It's going to win the summer box office crown but it's not catching Black Panther for the domestic box office crown for 2018.

But it will have the worldwide box office crown at $2.03B. Looks like it will settle in at fourth place all-time worldwide. It's not going to get enough domestic to catch Force Awakens, even though Infinity War is beating Force Awakens in the foreign box office. If it's going to reach third, it needs about $300M more overseas.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Sat Jul 07, 2018 8:08 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ant-Man and The Wasp drew $11.5M from Thursday previews, which is a little more than what the first Guardians of the Galaxy film got.

A good sign for Ant-Man 2 opening around $90M.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 07, 2018 8:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The heatwave may help it. I went to Incredibles last night around 7pm, and it was totally packed. Lots of other people in the theater, which means Ant-Man was drawing.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Mon Jul 09, 2018 7:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Opening weekends:

Ant-Man: $57.2M
Ant-Man and the Wasp: $76M

While not on par with the first Guardians film, it's still a good number for Ant-Man and the Wasp. The first Ant-Man film went on to earn $180M domestic, so if the second film stays at the first film's pace, it should get to $200M.

What may help Ant-Man and the Wasp is there doesn't appear to be a serious competitor looming in the next couple of weeks. Hotel Transylvania 3 probably won't cut into Ant-Man's audience. There's no reviews in yet for Skyscraper, which is the latest film Rock will headline, but it's hard to see that one pulling viewers away unless reviews are off the charts.

=======

Incredibles 2 went past the $500M this past weekend. It beat out Jurassic World 2 ($29M to $28.5M). It beat out Finding Dory for its fourth weekend number (Dory had $20.8M)

It will be interesting to see how Incredibles 2 retains its audience in the weeks to come. If it continues to beat Dory's tallies, Incredibles 2 could have a shot at $600M.

========

Jurassic World 2 is at $333M now. It might have enough left in the tank to get to $400M, but that appears to be its ceiling. Still, I don't think the studio is disappointed -- after all, nobody could have anticipated that the first Jurassic World was going to be the phenom it became.

Deadpool 2 is at $314M and should be a $325M film. Again, I'm sure the studio is happy, given that it went up against a fair amount of competition.
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Steve Yohe



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PostPosted: Wed Jul 11, 2018 12:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Looking around, I can't see any big serious Oscars movies that normally turn up late in the year. Last year there was a ton of them.---Yohe
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Mon Jul 16, 2018 7:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hotel Transylvania 3 opened to $44.1M this past weekend. That's in line with where the franchise has been the last two times.

HT1: $42.5M
HT2: $48.4M
HT3: $44.1M

The first film made $148M domestic and the second made $169M domestic. The third film will likely finish where the first film did, perhaps a bit more.

============

Ant-Man and the Wasp dropped 62 percent from its first to second weekend. It's still $26M ahead of the first film, but it's going to be tougher for it to reach $200M.

I still think it will finish its run ahead of the first film, but $190M may be a more realistic mark.

=============

* Skyscraper drew $25.4M. Mojo had projected $30M. Either way, this doesn't look like it will be a surprise hit.

* Incredibles 2 added $16.2M and continues to beat up on Finding Dory. Yeah, this one is well on its way to $600M.

* Infinity War passed $675M domestic. Worldwide, it's at $2.04B.

* Black Panther is still in a few theaters and is at $699.9M, so it's easy to see the studio is keeping it in theaters until it reaches $700M.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 22, 2018 2:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ant-Man 2 looks to have slowed it's weekend decline relative to AM1. Estimates, and card subject to change... but it's -44.6% vs -48.6% on the third weekend after having a bigger % drop than AM1 on the first weekend. It's $32M ahead of a movie that made $180M. It also has an extra week prior to Labor Day than AM1. Labor Day always gives a boost to movies released in this range, and then business falls off after that. This has an extra week of Summer Weekdays...

It's a lock for $200M at this point. The MCU movie it's gunning for is the $206M that Thor 2 made, which is a bit more of a question. It looks to have beaten it this weekend, but likely isn't going to do it next weekend. It's going to need to rely on Summer Weekdays to chase it down. Possible.

Internationally it's WAY behind AM1. On the other hand...

It hasn't debuted in China, where AM1 made $105M. It debuted mid-week in France, where AM1 made $13M. Germany ($6M) this week. The UK ($25M), Japan ($10M) and Italy ($5M) in August. It will likely do better in *all* of those markets than AM1. It's going to end up ahead of AM1 overseas, likely getting over $400M along with the $200M hear.

It's not going to get to the $677.7M that Stange made barring doing really big increases in those markets, and probably not the $644.6M that Thor2 did. But these are smaller budget movies, so $600M+ is pretty stout.

* * * * *

Incredibles 2 has an outside shot at $600M.

Obviously it needs to get comfortably above $100M of the pace of Dory, which "only" made $486M. I2 isn't there yet - it's "just" $93M ahead of the pace, which is well off the $114M it needs to beat Dory by. Six weekends in doesn't give it a lot of margin to work with when it comes to gaining. But it's drop this weekend was much better: -29.2% vs -35.9%. I2 doesn't face the comp that Dory did, which had Secret Life of Pets (a surprise monster at $368M) and Ice Age 5 (a bomb at $68M but was able to $21M away in it opening week). Hotel Transylvania 3 is a hit, but it's no Pets.

Dory had $26M left in the tank at this point. I2 needs $43M. It's been beating Dory by $8M to $12M the past three full weeks, about $500K on average on the weekdays last week. Kind of needs to hold that $500K win rate on these four coming up to cut more into it.

Outside shot, but something interesting to watch.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Fri Jul 27, 2018 10:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

$6M in Thursday previews for Mission Impossible: Fallout.

Mission Impossible: Rouge Nation drew $4M in previews and opened at $55M, then went on to draw $195M.

It may be a good sign for Fallout in getting to $200M.

For comparison, here are the totals for the previous five MI movies and the years they were released:

MI2: $215M (2000)
MI4: $209M (2011)
MI5: $195M (2015)
MI1: $180M (1996)
MI3: $134M (2006)
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Mon Jul 30, 2018 8:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Opening weekends:

Mission Impossible 6 - $61.5M
Mission Impossible 5 - $55.2M

I'm using the fifth film as the comp for the sixth because both were released the final weekend in July.

So MI6 has a $6M lead on MI5. The latter finished with $195M, so if the sixth film matches the fifth film's pace, it will have no problem getting to $200M.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 30, 2018 9:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

MI6 does look like a $200M movies.

MI5 was helped by a pair of bombs that might have taken box office from it but failed: Fantastic Four its second weekend, and Man From Uncle its third weekend. Just great luck that the first one was horrible, and that fans didn't care about the second one even though it was pretty watchable.

MI6 doesn't really have action competition until Mile 22 comes out on its 4th weekend. Who knows if Mile 22 does business, as the last two Berg-Wahlberg movies were bombs after the success of Lone Survivor.

* * * * *

Incredibles 2 moved $103M ahead of the pace of Dory. Its $28M away from $600M. Dory has $17M left in the tank at this point. I2 beat Dory by $7M last week, and $3M over the weekend.

$600M is in play.

* * * * *

Panther looks like it's stalling out less than $40K away from $700M. It bumped up it's theater count last week, but that didn't bump the box office up enough. The weekend estimates were $1K a day. Unless it outperforms that, it's in some trouble. Down to just 15 theaters.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 30, 2018 10:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Looking at the Summer Movies and whether they did well or not given expectations:

$677,544,078 Avengers: Infinity War

This is a bit of a disappointment given how much Panther made. It felt like a lock to top Panther. When Panther looked like it would end up close to $700M, it meant this would be in the $750M range. That didn't happen. Mild disappointment.

Of course worldwide it's a monster

$572,780,648 Incredibles 2

Massive success. Suspect that Pixar was hoping it would get to $400M, but willing to take $350M.

$397,555,500 Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

It's going to top $400M comfortably in the coming week. But given a week release schedule coming up behind it, this really looked like it had a clear run at $500M. Don't think it was going to match JW, but just the placement and buzz coming off the last one felt like it would open bigger and have enough big weeks at the front to get to $500M. Disappointing numbers.

$317,668,854 Deadpool 2

Mixed. The opening was wildly disappointing coming off the first one - it was lower than DP1. That made it feel like it was going to struggle to get to $300M. It ended up with decent enough legs to get there.

They think they made a good sequel, loading it up with both fun and action. They probably think they couldn't have delivered something bigger for #2. They had massive goodwill off the first one. They have to be scratching their heads why this didn't do more.

That said, this was a relatively cheap movie for blockbuster actions comic book movies. It made a tone of money worldwide for Fox.


$212,715,759 Solo: A Star Wars Story

No other way to phrase this other than "bomb". Given the reshoots, this had to be expensive as hell. At the moment, it's listed as making less money overseas than in the US.

I'm a broken record on this: Disney made a massive mistake scheduling this for a May release rather than December. Worse, once they fired the director and brought in Howard, they had an excuse to move it back to December to give him more time to clean things up. I do think this makes closer to $300M if its release were in Dec, and Howard having more time to clean it up.

$183,124,127 Ant-Man and the Wasp

A success. Money left in the tank, including a ton of it overseas.


$137,287,915 Ocean's 8

This was pretty decent business. Not an expensive movie. Already has made the same amount overseas with markets left. This likely allows for another of these.

$119,228,501 Hotel Transylvania 3

Given the fall off of other animated sequels (I2 notwithstanding), this is good. It's falling off the weekend pace of HT3, but is making up a bit on the weekdays due to Summer. It's not going to get to HT2's $169M, but it looks like $150M and topping HT1 is in the books.

That's good again given how other franchises have massively fallen off, such as Despicable Me ($336M to $368M peak for Minions and DM2 down to $264M for DM3) and Ice Age ($195M peak ranks for IA2 & IA3 all the way down to $64M for IA5).

$70,425,525 Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again

Big drop off in the second weekend relative to the first. But it's $8M ahead of the pace, and while it's not going to get to the $144M it did, MM2 is going to get comftably over $100M. This was $23M more to make, bit that's also a decade later so it's not a massive increase in cost.

Where this has some issues is overseas - the first one made $465M overseas, leading to that massive $609M. I don't see how it makes that much.

$65,485,875 The First Purge


$59,152,760 Skyscraper

Bomb in the US. It's not really a big hit overseas, and already had its opening in China. It has Japan left. Don't think this is getting a long way past $300M worldwide. Not good.

$48,725,874 Sicario: Day of the Soldado

Cheap production budget, though the marketing budget easily doubles that given how much I was seeing ads for it. Pretty so-so unless there's more money to be made overseas.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 05, 2018 12:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Panther somehow significantly jumped up it's numbers Thu-Sun and moved past $700M. It did increase by 10 theaters on Fri-Sun, but you wouldn't think that would jump it. Must have been a niche campaign of something.

Cool.

* * * * *

Incredibles 2 continues to beat up Nemo, and is almost $10M up and growing. $600M looks like a pretty much a lock.

* * * * *

MI6 is beating up MI5 pretty good, with a lower % drop this weekend to boot. $17M up on MI6 and growing. $200M is a lock baring some big opening between now and Labor Day, needing to be sooner rather than later. I don't see anything on the release schedule that looks to be such a movie, so it would need to be a surprise big hit.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Thu Sep 06, 2018 2:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bunch of milestones for several films:

* Incredibles 2 passed the $600M mark.

* Mission Impossible 6 passed $200M. If that one sticks around in theaters for a while, it might become the highest grossing of the MI films. The second film did $215M and MI6 is nearing $208M.

* Infinity War is still in a few theaters and past $678M, though I imagine the studio will be pulling it soon.

As for more recent films

* Crazy Rich Asians has been a big hit at the box office. It's draw $20M-plus for three straight weekends (Fri-Sun). Throw in Labor Day and it's up to $121M.

Mojo is comparing that to other romantic comedies that went past $160M.

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?id=crazyrich.htm

It has a $21M lead on Help, which finished at $169M. That's a good sign for Crazy Rich Asians to get to $175M, with a shot at $180M.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

MI6 is a lock to be the top MI gross in the US. It's also crushed the worldwide mark for the series.

Given the age of everyone, and how it's the core of Cruise's current box office juice, it seems likely that there will be another one if 3 years rather than waiting longer. Tom can't do what he currently does in them deep into his 60s. There are ways to work around age, as the Taken movies did... and Eastwood did action movies into his 60s. But I don't recall if he was ever as super physical after Heartbreak Ridge, which was shot when he was 55/56. Not saying he wasn't physical in movies in his 60s, but just don't recall the level of running around like he consistently did in Heartbreak Ridge.

Cruise runs around a fuckton lot in the MI movies. He does all sorts of physical nutty shit that Clint was too smart to waste time on. One assumes that Cruise will give it a go in 3 years, but in 5 years... 6 years... some of that stuff gets tough. Even on juice or HGH, the body doesn't stop time.
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