The OtherArena

[Bob Morris]

I'll start this off with some of the films coming out in January through early April that could be big at the box office.

Lego Movie 2: The first movie did $257M and I imagine the studio is hoping for $200M or more.

How to Train Your Dragon 3: Could be fighting with Lego Movie 2 for an audience. The first movie did $217M, the second drew $177M. I suspect the studio would be fine with $150M domestic.

The above films come out in February.

Captain Marvel: It will be interesting to see how this film does. It's the final MCU film before Avengers: Endgame and you would think Captain Marvel is the hero the studio would like to be a major player in the next phase of MCU.

I don't know if it will reach the levels of Black Panther, but you have to think the studio would love to see this one be the next surprise hit. Wonder Woman did $400M when DC was having all kinds of problems with its other films. Given how loved MCU is, I'll be surprised if Captain Marvel doesn't pull in at least $400M.

Dumbo: Disney is rolling out a live action version of the film. They've had big hits with Jungle Book and Beauty and the Beast. If this gets the reception the other two got, we could have a $300M domestic draw.

Shazam: With Aquaman set to become a $300M franchise, I imagine DC will be crossing its fingers this could have similar success. Only problem is it won't be long before it runs into Avengers: Endgame, which is going to blow everyone else out of the water that weekend.

Still, if Shazam can break $250M, you could call it a modest success, especially with a lesser-known character than Superman or Batman in the lead.

Avengers: Endgame: We'll save this one for when it's closer to launch the summer box office post. ;)

[jdw]

I guess the key thing to look at for Cap Marvel is the opening. Here was the openings over the last little over two years:

$75,812,205 Ant-Man 2
$257,698,183 Avengers 3
$202,003,951 Black Panther
$122,744,989 Thor 3
$117,027,503 Spidey
$146,510,104 GotG 2
$85,058,311 Doctor Strange

Strange and Panther were pure debut movies, while Spidey has the track record of five Spidey movies behind it... even though this is the MCU debut.

The Panther opening is phenom stuff, which none of us could have expected thing time last year.

My guess is that when they started production, they would have been happy with the $200M+ that Strange did in the US and close to $700M worldwide. I think Wonder Woman and BP kind of screw up expectations now, and Aquaman pulling money out of its ass for a sorry DCU further screws things up.

The latest trailer added a "fun" element to the previews, which isn't a bad thing to balance out the earlier trailers. It gets across Bree holding her own is wise assing with Jackson.

And...

The pre-sales are extremely large, though not at Avengers or BP levels. Fandango and IMDB have it right with Avengers 4 as the most anticipated movie of the year.

If it opens north of Thor and is "good", it's going to sail past $300M with ease. The question would be how high above Thor it opens.

[Steve Yohe]

I'm going to put my money down to see the next Avenger move, because I want to see how they get out of the mess they got themselves in.--Yohe

[Bob Morris]

$34.4M estimated opening for Lego Movie 2.

The studio was expecting $50M to $55M, so this is a big disappointment. Maybe more people show up during the upcoming President's Day weekend -- the movie has generated mostly positive reviews.

But if it doesn't do better business in the coming weeks, there's no chance of this one getting to $200M.

[jdw]

Might worry about making $100M:

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/franchises/chart/?id=lego.htm

It's closer to Lego Ninja than Lego Batman.

Lego Batman had a decent Presidents Day weekend, and ended up doing 3.3 times the opening. That would get Lego 2 past $100M. But each of these has had a smaller multiplier:

3.7 Lego
3.3 Lego Batman
2.9 Lego Ninja

If it tracks the multiplier of Ninja, it's just short of $100M. If it tracks Batman, it's in the $115M range.

Not a log of comp for it until Dragon comes out at the end of the month to suck up the fanbase.

Thing to watch is Lego Batman dropping only -38.4% on the second Fri-Sun and then took in $10M on Presidents Day. If Lego 2 has a drop higher than -40%... $100M might be a big struggle.

[jdw]

Looking ahead, my thought is that if Alita isn't a hit of some note (as in closer to $200M than $100M), Cap Marvel is going to be huge. It's been a week start to the year. Dragon will do business, and perhaps get back to $200M because of Lego's bomb and nothing doing business. But there hasn't been a hit of any note. Which means people will be waiting for SOMETHING to see once there's an Event.

By huge, I'm not saying Panther huge. That's still a crazy massive number. But huge in the sense of an easy $300M, which first edition solo movies just haven't done other than Panther since Iron Man 1. And a chance to get to $400M and Wonder Woman. It's almost certainly going to open up bigger than WW and somewhere in the mid-$100M range.

Panther opened at $202M, and $242M over the Prez Day weekend. So if the box office remains dry, $150M is very much in play.

[Steve Yohe]

I thought the Lego movie would be huge because there has been nothing to see for weeks. You would think the public would starved for something worth seeing. Maybe people are tiered of the lego gimmick. Or the weather held it back.

The Alita trailer has been getting better & I'm getting interested. It's advantage is... either it is...or looks like...the Japanese comic books...and there seems to be a market for that outside of the Marvel & DC people.

Lego has overworked the "cross over" gimmick. It's something that draws big the first time & carries on for a while...but the public gets used to it....then they realize all the characters crowd the stories. Lego is "cross over" on sterols.& I wouldn't have let them use all the trade marks.---Yohe

[jdw]

Alita isn't getting to $200M, and may be closer to $100M than $150M unless it shows some legs.

My guess that means Cap Marvel will open quite large, over $150M and with a chance of going some distance beyond that level.

[Bob Morris]

The one to keep an eye on now is How to Train Your Dragon 3.

I don't think it will be a phenom, by any means, but it's already doing good business worldwide ($181M take so far). I would think this one would at least do better than Lego Movie 2 did on its domestic opening weekend.

[jdw]

I don't want to get overly excited about Dragon 3 opening with $17.5M yesterday. It's possible that there's some degree of frontload which Mojo isn't accounting for. Dragon 2 Dragon 2 had an $18M opening Friday, and did $49M for the weekend.

Slight difference perhaps: Dragon 2 at the start of Summer with schools mostly out, so more kids could see it at earlier showings on Friday that is possible for Dragon 3. Perhaps there will be an upward spike at the box office on Saturday for Dragon 3, where there was a drop for Dragon 2.

But it probably is too early to get as optimistic as Mojo.

[jdw]

$55M weekend for Dragon 3, and they've added on the $2.5M of Fandango special airings on before it to take it to $58M through the end of the weekend. Very good start. Comp to Dragon 2 will get tough on the weekdays due ti D@'s summer release. But this bodes pretty well.

[Bob Morris]

How to Train Your Dragon 3 pulled $30M in its second week. Better legs than the second film but not as strong as the first film, even though its take was slightly higher.

The drops from opening to second weekend:

Dragon 1: $43.7M -> $29M (-33.7%)
Dragon 2: $49.4M -> $24.7M (-50%)
Dragon 3: $55M -> $30M (-45.4%)

Dragon 3 should have no trouble beating Dragon 2, which finished with $177M. It's not going to reach Dragon 1, which got to $217M.

I'm not positive Dragon 3 will break $200M, but it should come close. $195M looks like a safe bet.

[jdw]

$150M+ opening for Captain Marvel. In line with expectations. It does show us how insane the opening for Panther was last year, both for the weekend and the four-day given President's Day.

[Bob Morris]

Mojo has comps up for Captain Marvel.

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=daily&id=roguevhgdk.htm

Seems like the first Hunger Games is the best comp to make, with Hunger Games being a March release.

Captain Marvel had a lower Friday number, but it beat Hunger Games Saturday and Sunday. Had a similar number Monday, then well above it Tuesday.

It's $6M up on Hunger Games and I suspect it will keep doing better business. That should make it a $400M film.

However, Hunger Games finished at $408M, so Captain Marvel isn't a candidate for $500M. Maybe it can push to $425M if it keeps beating Hunger Games enough, but that's the ceiling.

[Bob Morris]

Second weekend numbers:

Captain Marvel: $67.9M
Hunger Games: $58.5M

Captain Marvel pulled in a similar take to Hunger Games on Friday, then blew it away Saturday and well ahead of it Sunday.

That makes Captain Marvel a lock for $400M.

Captain Marvel's second weekend bested Rogue One as well. It's still $22M behind because Rogue One pulled in more during weekdays and had Christmas to boost its take.

While it's still going to be tough to reach the $532M Rogue One pulled in, Captain Marvel's second weekend gives it a better chance at $500M. It all depends on what it pulls in on the weekends and how that makes up for the ground it loses on weekdays.