The OtherArena

[Bob Morris]

Us opened at $70.2M. Big opening weekend for Jordan Peele's latest horror film.

The comparison, right now, would be with the Halloween film that came out last year, which opened at $75M and finished at $159M.

But when you consider that Us has been as strongly reviewed as Get Out and A Quiet Place -- both horror films that had great legs -- you have to wonder if Us might be a threat for $200M.

Get Out made it to $176M while A Quiet Place finished at $188M, so if Us has similar legs, look out.

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Captain Marvel added $35M to its take. That still keeps it ahead of Hunger Games, though it's falling off the pace of Dark Knight (another film Mojo compared it to).

Captain Marvel is at $321M right now. Hunger Games had $105M left at this point, so Captain Marvel isn't going to make it to $500M. But it does have a $19M edge on Hunger Games, so $425M is definitely in play.

If it keeps about a $20M edge, it might approach $450M, but that's the ceiling at this point.

[Bob Morris]

$45M opening weekend for Dumbo. The studio was projecting $50M. Probably looking at $130M or so for domestic gross.

Us dropped 52 percent for its second opening weekend, so this isn't going to be the phenom that Get Out and A Quiet Place were -- meaning $200M is out of the picture.

However, it did better than the 2018 Halloween film did for its second weekend, so $150M remains a lock and it looks like it should reach $160M (Halloween got to $159M).

Captain Marvel broke $350M, though it fell slightly behind Hunger Games for the first time. Still, it has $17M up on Hunger Games, so it's still in line for $400M.

[Bob Morris]

$53M estimated weekend opening number for Shazam.

That would probably make Ant-Man the comp -- Ant-Man finished at $180.2M, meaning Shazam isn't likely to get to $200M, especially with Avengers Endgame on the way.

$150M seems like a reasonable estimate, though. That's not bad, considering it's a lesser-known DC property and with Marvel putting out two anticipated films in a span of less than three months.

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Captain Marvel will pass $375M this week, if not during the weekend should its fifth weekend actuals come in higher than the estimates.

It's falling behind Hunger Games' pace, though it still has a $17M cushion to work with. Captain Marvel will still reach $400M, but $410M is looking more like its ceiling.

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Us continues to stay ahead of the pace of the 2018 Halloween film. Again, I don't see this one reaching the levels that A Quiet Place and Get Out reached, but $160M is a lock and $165M is still in play.

Still, it's nowhere near the phenom that those two were.

So there's been some modest successes at the box office, but nothing earth shattering thus far. Perhaps that changes when Avengers Endgame arrives.

[Bob Morris]

I guess now is as good a time as any to look at the summer box office and figure out what films are going to be the most notable franchises and which, if any, will be a top performer.

Avengers: Endgame: Here we are -- this is the favorite to win the summer box office crown, Infinity War pulled in $678.8M, so anything less than $675M for Endgame would be considered a disappointment. You would think the studio is hoping for at least $700M, given this is likely the end for at least a couple of characters in the MCU.

John Wick: Chapter 3: Though not a huge draw, the second film doubled its take from the first film. Lionsgate might be thinking that its mid-May release will be the right time to avoid Avengers cutting into its tally and perhaps get a $100M domestic take. We'll see.

Aladdin: Another live-action adaptation of a popular animated film from the 1990s. Part of me thinks the studio is rushing these out too quickly and that burnout will set in. I don't think it will hit the levels of Jungle Book or Beauty and the Beast, but perhaps it will do better than Dumbo, which is going to struggle to reach $100M. I'll guess $150M, because maybe Aladdin gets received well enough to draw interest.

Godzilla: King of the Monsters: The 2014 film drew $200M. It's being released Memorial Day weekend, at the point when interest in Avengers will be dwindling. If this Godzilla film gets well received, it could reach $200M, too.

Dark Phoenix: The film's release was delayed, there's controversy surrounding the director and Disney buying Fox Studios means the company is lukewarm at best when it comes to promoting previous X-Men films. This makes me believe this will be one of the lowest drawing films of the series. First Class drew $146.4M, so I'll project $140M here.

Secret Life of Pets 2: The first film was a massive hit at $368M. I suspect Universal is hoping this one will be just as big. Since it's not going to have much competition right away, it seems like $300M is a safe bet as long as it's well received, but then again...

Toy Story 4: The last film got to $415M. Can this one reach those heights? I don't bet against Pixar that much, but it's hard to say whether or not people want to see more of these characters after what was supposed to be the closure in the third film. I'll project $300M for the time being, which I think recognizes Pixar's efforts in making this franchise work, while accounting for people who may be ready to move on from it, plus interest in another film which I'll get to later.

Spider-Man: Far From Home: The Fourth of July week release. It ties into the MCU and we'll find out whether the storyline takes place before or after the events of Infinity War (which has been the subject of debate). Homecoming was good for $334M, so I'd say $300M is a safe bet for the next Spidey film.

The Lion King: I think Disney made a mistake by rolling this one out, along with live-action Aladdin and Toy Story 4, in the same summer box office period. It's understandable that competing studios will release animated films in the same period, but the same studio putting out a live-action version of a beloved 1990s animated flick so soon after an installment of a popular Pixar property and another live-action film -- I don't think that was a good idea.

But with Lion King being as loved as it was, it may have enough to overcome that and be a $400M film, perhaps pushing for $500M, because there will be more anticipation for this one than for Aladdin or Toy Story 4.

New Mutants: Another film in the X-Men series that keeps getting delayed. I haven't even seen much in the way of trailers for it. This has all the makings of a bomb. Probably doesn't even break $100M.

I don't see much else among summer releases, but there's usually one or two that do surprisingly well.

[Steve Yohe]

As I remember, the big emotional moment in TOY STORY 3 was the fact that it was the last one. Now we got #4, with a story that resembles the others. "Lets do it for the money! The corporation needs a payday! The stockholders need their money & we are out of new ideas."---Yohe

[Bob Morris]

Second weekend estimates:

Shazam: $25.1M
Ant-Man: $24.9M

Shazam is still $12M behind Ant-Man's total take but its second weekend dropoff was slightly lower.

I think this gives Shazam a better shot at $150M domestic, particularly if it can capitalize on Easter weekend before Avengers comes along.

[jdw]

Steve will be happy that Hellboy bombed.

[Steve Yohe]

I feel like there is justice in the world.--Yohe

[Steve Yohe]

Will Avengers do 300 mil this next week? Seems to be the biggest event in years & for years to come.---Yohe

[Bob Morris]

Infinity War opened at $257M.

Not sure if a $300M opening weekend is in the cards. The Force Awakens didn't even go that high ($247M) on its opening weekend, and we all know how much people looked forward to that one.

I'll be surprised if Endgame doesn't at least open at $250M. I think $275M is in play for opening weekend.

But given that no other highly anticipated film has come that close to $300M, I'm not sure if Endgame will get there.

[Bob Morris]

In other movie news...

Shazam beat Ant-Man in third weekend take at $17.3M. It's still $11M behind Ant-Man's pace to this point, so $200M isn't in the cards. But I think it's a safe bet for $150M, even with Endgame coming out this weekend.

Captain Marvel actually saw its weekend number go up -- it was at $8.6M last weekend, but this past weekend was at $9.1M. Not hard to figure out it's people going to see it before Endgame hits theaters.

But that number put Captain Marvel past $400M domestic and now gives it a shot at $420M, even with Endgame coming out.

[Steve Yohe]

In the years to come, what could be a bigger draw than the last Avenger movie & the Star Wars movie that ends the storyline.

All this is happening around the end of GAME OF THRONES, and a ending for DEADWOOD on HBO. It seems, at least to me, that it will be years before anyone can build events this big.

BUT, HELLBOY should have been an event...and look what we got! After this period is over, we'll be stuck with John Wicks remakes.---Yohe

[Bob Morris]

Looks like Mojo agrees with you, Steve -- they're predicting $300M.

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4506&p=.htm

[Dave Dymond]

I've never previously done this in my life before, but I actually pre-ordered a ticket for a showing of Endgame this Saturday afternoon. I really want to see this movie. I wasn't even going to bother trying to get into one of the advance showings tonight and I know Friday will be nuts, but I got into the Saturday showing...one of four screens showing the movie at the same theater.

[jdw]

$60M on *Thursday*.

I'm seeing it at 4am this morning - everything else looked sold out, and most of Saturday looks sold out. :)