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Box Office Thread 2019
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jdw
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PostPosted: Fri May 10, 2019 12:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Pirates of the Caribbean 4 is generally thought to be the most expensive ever.

Avengers 2 is generally #2 before Avengers 3 & 4 came along, and some lists still have it #2. Avengers 3 & 4 *might* have saved some money relative to Ultron because they shot back-to-back, were able to keep the crew and production process together, and not have to totally start over from scratch with Endgame.

That said, I suspect the marketing budgets for Infinity War and Endgame pushed them past Ultron, and perhaps challenges Pirates 4. We're several years down the road where everything costs more in terms of marketing, and these two were flying people all around to push it with a massive cast for Infinifty War. My guess is that they didn't worry too much about that as they knew combined the two movies would likely rake $4B worldwide.
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Steve Yohe



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PostPosted: Fri May 10, 2019 2:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well Matrix 2 leading to #3...but that's not what I'm trying to get over. Killing 1/2 of the people in a movie...and then turning to old time machine gimmick. Is cheap. Like a Dusty Rhodes finish. They cover the hole with a ton of good movie making & emotional stuff people like. So... But I'll bitch if I see it continue with less talented film makers. I'm 71...I'm not going to shut up. John should ban me.

The money spent on Avatar 2...then 3....then 4...and I think 5...is going to break all records for money spent. Cameron can't control himself & it's never come back on him. 3D blue guys can get old without some new major ideas. I see a lot of trouble there. If one bombs...HOLY COW.

Wonder what's the most money ever lost?--Yohe
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Sun May 12, 2019 7:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Pokemon: Detective Pikachu pulled in $20.7M on Friday and finished ahead of Endgame ($16.06M).

Whether that holds up through the weekend remains to be seen, but Friday was the first day another film has beaten Endgame since its release.

Endgame will break $700M this weekend.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sun May 12, 2019 10:09 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Estimate of a -57% drop for Endgame. The actuals have been coming in ahead of the estimates, but that's a big drop. Much worse than Infinity Wars (which is odd) and hammered by Force Awakens.

If that holds, $900M is out the window.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Mon May 13, 2019 1:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's possible we see Endgame pick things up a bit during Memorial Day weekend or when school (as opposed to college) gets out.

But, right now, $825M domestic appears to be the ceiling. Maybe it gets to $850M, but I can't see it going any higher unless it experiences a bounce back like Captain Marvel did.

Avatar's worldwide number remains in play, though. Endgame added another $102.3M from international box office and sits at $2.489B worldwide.

It will need another $302M worldwide (domestic and international) to catch Avatar. If it does catch Avatar, that's a big feather in the cap, even if it doesn't set the domestic record.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Mon May 13, 2019 1:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Meanwhile, Detective Pikachu pulled in $58M, which I imagine the studio would consider a pleasant surprise. Worldwide, it's drawn $170M.

It looks like Pikachu will get to $100M domestic, which is good considering it's going up against Endgame.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Mon May 20, 2019 1:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Endgame pulled in $29.4M this weekend and now sits at $770.8M domestic take.

It looks like $850M is going to be its ceiling. I think it might pick up a little bit of business on Memorial Day weekend, but not enough to push it to $875M domestic -- that's out of reach at this point.

However, to call it a disappointment would be a lie because...

Avatar: $2.78B
Endgame: $2.61B

Endgame is closing in on the all-time worldwide mark. It's going to need another $170M worldwide to reach that mark, but it's continuing to do well overseas. Getting another $80M domestic (which I think it will get) means another $90M international puts it past Avatar.

So the real one to watch is that worldwide number -- and there's still a very real chance Endgame will get it.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Mon May 20, 2019 1:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

In other weekend box office news, John Wick 3 pulled in $57M for its opening weekend.

It's already blown past the first John Wick film (which had a total $43M domestic take) and blew away the second film's opening weekend number ($30.4M).

The second film finished at nearly $92.1M domestic take. I'll be surprised if John Wick 3 doesn't break $100M and it has a shot at $125M if it can show any legs.

---------

Pokemon Detective Pickachu has been a steady performer. It's already up to $94M domestic, meaning it won't be long before it passes $100M. It's also done $290M worldwide, which is pretty good considering it had to go up against Endgame.

----------

Earlier, I had mentioned that it was Godzilla 2 getting Memorial Day weekend, but that's actually Aladdin. Given that Endgame hasn't been quite the powerhouse in recent weeks, perhaps that bodes well for Aladdin.

If Aladdin does well at the box office, I wonder if that means Toy Story 4 is going to be the Disney family flick that suffers the most. Not only is that sandwiched in between Aladdin and Lion King, it also goes up against Secret Life of Pets 2.

I don't think Toy Story 4 will bomb -- but I wonder if it will struggle to even get to $200M, which would put it behind Toy Story 2, a film released in 1999, when $200M was considered a more impressive number then.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Sun May 26, 2019 1:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Estimated $86.1M opening weekend for Aladdin -- that's Friday through Sunday, not including Memorial Day. Add Memorial Day and it will pass $100M.

Dumbo might be the comparison -- that opened at $45.9M and is at $112.7M now.

Aladdin should stay well ahead of Dumbo's pace, which means it should be good for $175M. The question is whether it gets to $200M -- the opening weekend, plus Memorial Day, would put it in position to get there, but it needs to show some legs to have a chance.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Mon Jun 03, 2019 7:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Aladdin added $42.3M this past weekend and is up to $185M.

So $200M is a lock and now it looks like a good bet for $250M.

----

Godzilla won the weekend box office crown with $49M.

However, given the poor reviews for the film, I doubt it's going to get that far past $100M.

----

Finally, here's the race we've been keeping an eye on: Worldwide take for Endgame and Avatar.

Endgame: $2.713B
Avatar: $2.787B

Another $75M and Endgame will be the highest grossing film worldwide.

Endgame is about $35M away from $850M domestic -- and it should hit that mark-- so all it needs is another $40M international box office.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Wed Jun 05, 2019 11:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Early prediction: Secret Life of Pets 2 will do better at the box office this weekend than Dark Phoenix.

The latter film is getting panned by a lot of critics while the former is getting some praise.

Also, I think people are burned out on the X-Men films. The studio made a mistake in going right to Days of Future Past, when that should have been the big finale to the latest X-Men series.

Disney buying Fox Studios means Marvel can let the X-Men sit on the sidelines for a while until they decide how to work them into the MCU.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Mon Jun 10, 2019 10:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Secret Life of Pets 2 opens at $47.1M. That's similar to what the likes of Hotel Transylvania 2 and Kung Fu Panda 2 drew on their opening weekends.

Those films passed $165M, but with other competition in the wings (Toy Story 4), Pets 2 might not get that high.

I'd say its ceiling is $150M.

---

Dark Phoenix will go down as a bomb. Just $33M for its opening weekend, lower than any X-Men film.

The studio is right to put the X-Men on the back burner, save for Deadpool, which should have at least one more film in its run.

---

Aladdin is doing very well, up to $232.3M through its third weekend.

$250M is now a lock. The question is whether it can get to $300M.

I will admit I didn't think Aladdin would do that much business, given other films that were coming out and some people might have to make choices. But it's clear there was a lot of interest in this film.

---

All-time international box office:

Avatar: $2.787B
Endgame: $2.730B

$57M to go. This one will be close.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Mon Jun 17, 2019 1:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Another summer flick has a disappointing box office for opening weekend -- this time, it's Men in Black International. Just a $30M opening.

This is another franchise that probably needs to be put to rest. There just isn't any money in it any longer, regardless of who they put in the lead.

--

Mojo has a comp for Secret Life of Pets 2 up, against sequels to Hotel Transylvania and Kung Fu Panda:

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=weekend&id=pets2.htm

Pets 2 didn't drop that much from its first to second weekend. Not sure if it can keep the pace going, though, with Toy Story 4 coming out this weekend.

--

Aladdin added another $17.3M this past weekend. $300M is getting more into play, though it's going to need a strong push in the coming weeks.

--

John Wick 3 has been doing very well at the box office. It's closing in on $150M and blowing the first two movies in the series out of the water.

Wouldn't shock me if they try to roll out another film in this series.

--

The Endgame worldwide box office watch:

Endgame: $2.742B
Avatar: $2.787B

Endgame's worldwide take is slowing down -- it now needs $45M to catch Avatar.

If it's left in the domestic theaters until it hits $850M (it passed $830M this weekend), it's going to need $25M outside of domestic to be the worldwide box office king.

Not sure if that's going to happen -- still, it's hard for the studio to be disappointed in how well it's done.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 18, 2019 8:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bob Morris wrote:
Another summer flick has a disappointing box office for opening weekend -- this time, it's Men in Black International. Just a $30M opening.

This is another franchise that probably needs to be put to rest. There just isn't any money in it any longer, regardless of who they put in the lead.


The series has twice been put to bed for long stretches - 10 years and then 7 years. The bigger issue is that they seem to be making crappy movies.

This one kinda had a shot with Thor coming off Avengers and the last Thor being feel good with the fans. This is a big knock to Hemsworth as a Star, though he will get some slack for it being bad.

One thing for the franchise is that they made it cheap - just $110M, though the marketing will take that higher. It's making some money internationally... might not be a total money loser. Someone will come back to it at some point in another 10 years or so.



Quote:
Mojo has a comp for Secret Life of Pets 2 up, against sequels to Hotel Transylvania and Kung Fu Panda:

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=weekend&id=pets2.htm

Pets 2 didn't drop that much from its first to second weekend. Not sure if it can keep the pace going, though, with Toy Story 4 coming out this weekend.


Illumination is taking it hard on some of their sequels. Despicable Me 3 was down quite a bit at the box off, and Pets 2 is as well.

Quote:
Aladdin added another $17.3M this past weekend. $300M is getting more into play, though it's going to need a strong push in the coming weeks.


It's also doing pretty well on weekdays now that it's summer - decent drop levels. $300M looks pretty good.


Quote:
John Wick 3 has been doing very well at the box office. It's closing in on $150M and blowing the first two movies in the series out of the water.

Wouldn't shock me if they try to roll out another film in this series.


Saw it last night. Lock for another one. They left lots of stuff open to come back... far more than one would think.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Mon Jun 24, 2019 7:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

$118M opening weekend for Toy Story 4. It's slightly higher than Toy Story 3, which opened at $110.3M.

The real question is how well Toy Story 4 will retain its audience. Toy Story 3 dropped just 46.2 percent from its first to second weekend, which helped its cause to break $400M.

$300M is a lock for Toy Story 4, but getting to $400M depends on its legs.
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