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Box Office Thread 2019
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jdw
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 24, 2019 11:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I thought TS4 would be an easy lock for a $150M opening, and maybe more. Very surprised by this. The actuals were a bit higher than $118M, but still well below.

Incredibles 2 did $182M, and Dory did $135M. I get that there was more space between those two and their beloved prior movies... but still...

TS3 did $415M, was beloved, was the #2 all-time animated behind Shrek 2 at the time, and it's been 9 years.

I get that perhaps there's a feeling that TS3 was a proper send off, and this feels like another Pixar cash crab sequel rather than them blazing glory with new originals. But...

$608,581,744 Incredibles 2 (2018)
$486,295,561 Finding Dory (2016)

The two biggest animated movies of all-time were cash grab Pixar movies released a year ago and three years ago.

Thought this would open big.

* * * * *

One thing that struck me a bit in hindsight is that I haven't see a ton of marketing of the movie. I saw stuff about Pets 2, including the trailer in the theaters. I don't recall seeing a trailer of TS4. Don't recall seeing a ton of commercials. I'm sure they were out there. I just seemed to miss them.

MIB, in contrast, was all over the place. The new FF spin off movie is all over the place. Spidey is out and about. I haven't seen a ton of Aladdin... which maybe is a sign that I don't watch a lot of shows where kids movie ads are aired... but I think I at least saw some Aladdin stuff.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Tue Jun 25, 2019 11:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I've only seen a couple of trailers for Toy Story 4. The ones I've seen don't really show a lot of scenes from the film itself.

I imagine there are trailers that do have those scenes -- they just weren't ones that I saw.

I suspect the reason the other two sequels did better than Toy Story 4 was because Finding Dory and Incredibles 2 both followed films that had no sequel. Thus, there was plenty of interest in seeing them.

Also, they weren't wedged into a summer box office in which Disney had other family films to promote. Aladdin came out Memorial Day weekend and Lion King is arriving in July.

I previously wondered if some families would find themselves having to choose which films they wanted to see and if one of them might not do as well as Disney would hope.

I was wrong about Aladdin, as that one will be reaching $300M. Toy Story 4 will be a $300M flick, likely $350M.

Still, I wonder if Disney might have been able to get one of those films (perhaps Aladdin -- and maybe Toy Story 4 with a bigger opening weekend) to approach a bigger number if they hadn't released all three in a crowded summer box office field.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Tue Jun 25, 2019 11:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Avengers Endgame is at $2.750B worldwide, $37M short of Avatar's worldwide record.

It's being re-released with some bonus features in hopes of getting the worldwide record. It's just shy of $835M domestic right now.

If we assume it draws another $15M domestic, it would need $23M foreign to get the record.

I imagine Marvel is hoping to get more than $15M domestic to give it a better shot at the worldwide record.

Not sure how much the extras are going to entice people to go see it again, but there was a possibility that Endgame was going to get a slight boost in business if people wanted to see it before Spidey comes out next week.

The domestic record is out of the question, but the worldwide record... we shall see.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Sun Jun 30, 2019 5:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Second weekend numbers:

Toy Story 4: $57.9M
Toy Story 3: $59.3M

Bigger dropoff for Toy Story 4. It still has a $10M lead over Toy Story 3, but it's hard to see it keeping that lead for long with Spidey about to hit the box office.

Toy Story 4 will still be good for $350M and it should have no trouble reaching $375M. But it doesn't look like this one will hit $400M.

======

Avengers Endgame added $5.5M this weekend, so the added features (and likely the approaching debut of the Spidey film) helped raise its take.

Worldwide, it's still $26M short of Avatar's record. If we assume Endgame is good for another $10M domestic (it needs $9M to reach $850M), it needs $17M foreign to get there.

Likely it's going to fall short, unless it manages to keep enough interest in the added material once Spidey hits theaters.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Tue Jul 02, 2019 1:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mojo already has its weekend preview up, given that Spidey Far From Home debuts today.

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4525&p=.htm

Keep in mind that Mojo's weekend forecast only covers Friday through Sunday, but the preview notes that the new Spidey film is going to be difficult to draw a comp with a recent film, because the likes of Transformers and Amazing Spider-Man opened on July 3.

But the preview does mention the projected six-day total (Tuesday through Sunday) at $175M. Getting that would make $300M a lock and a good shot at $400M.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Wed Jul 03, 2019 1:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Spidey Far From Home brought in an estimated $39.25M Tuesday.

Sony is still projecting a $125M six-day opening (far below Mojo's projection), so it's off to a good start toward Sony's mark.
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Steve Yohe



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PostPosted: Wed Jul 03, 2019 3:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Spider-Man opened on Tuesday....it wasn't the normal premier. So it started at 10 AM & played all day. Like 25 showings.--Yohe
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Mon Jul 08, 2019 10:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Spidey Far From Home pulled in an estimated $185M over its first six days.

Again, it's tough to do a comp with any other film out there, but it's safe to say that Spidey Far From Home will exceed what Homecoming pulled in ($334.2M).

I think $350M should be in the bag for Far From Home, meaning the question is how far past $350M will go. $400M may be out of its reach, but perhaps it can push for $375M.

--

Toy Story 4 pulled in $34.3M on its third weekend. It gained some ground on Toy Story 3 the past few days and now has a $17M lead.

Still not sure if it will have enough to get to $400M, especially with Lion King coming out in a couple of weeks. But if it can find a way to keep its audience, it has a chance.
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Steve Yohe



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PostPosted: Mon Jul 15, 2019 1:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

So Avengers Endgame is 7.2 mil short of Avatar? --Yohe
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Mon Jul 15, 2019 8:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yes, Steve -- if it can hit that mark, Endgame will have the all-time worldwide record.

It's at $851M domestic right now and pulled in $1.7M this past weekend. I suspect the studio will want to leave it in theaters until it gets to $860M domestic, which then gives it the all-time record.

Whether it can get to $860M is the question -- I think $855M is within its grasp.

But if it adds another $4M domestic, it just needs another $3M international to get the worldwide record.

So, yeah, I think it's happening.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Mon Jul 15, 2019 8:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Spidey Far From Home added another $45.3M this past weekend and is just shy of $275M.

Sure looks like this one will break $400M. It didn't drop that much from its first to second weekend (51 percent).

While Lion King will likely be big this weekend (even if it's not getting a lot of positive reviews -- Aladdin didn't, either, and that one did well), I don't think it will take a lot of Spidey's audience away.

--

Toy Story 4 added another $20.6M this past weekend and is up to $346M for total domestic take.

It still has a $7M lead over Toy Story 3 and has been about even most days with that film.

So it looks like Toy Story 4 just might hit the $400M mark.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 21, 2019 7:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lion King opened a monster. Around $10M more than Beauty and the Beast, and $80M+ more than Jungle Book.

I don't know how it holds up to BatB, which has huge legs. Jungle Book had great legs given it's opening. The advantage Lion King has over those are Summer Weekdays, which counts for a lot.

Jungle Book made $364M. Unless Lion King falls apart starting the second weekend, it's going to blow past that.

BatB made $504M. It did a big $90M the second weekend, down just -48.3%. That's the first thing to watch with Lion King. But it needs to be balanced with how much Lion King beats it up Mon-Thu. BatB made $54M its first Mon-Thu. I don't see how Lion King doesn't crash that.

$500M is on the table.

* * * * *

Agree with Bob that TS4 is heading to $400M. It dropped just -30.3% this weekend even with Lion King out. It's $12M ahead of TS3's pace, and looks to have beaten it this weekend and beat it in "weekly" for the Fri-Thu that just finished. $400M is a look, and it's a decent bet to finish ahead of TS3's overall number.

* * * * *

Spidey looks like a shot at $400M. The weekends are tight with Homecoming, but the weekly number was better even though it has been out extra days. Homecoming has $83M left in the tank at this point. If FFH matches that, it gets to $400M. It's a bit tight at the moment, so another weekend and weekly, or two, would be telling.

* * * * *

Avengers 4 finally chased down Avatar worldwide.

That will last until they re-release Avatar before the sequels. ;)
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Mon Jul 22, 2019 7:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lion King likely will stay strong at the box office this coming weekend.

The newest wide release is Once Upon A Time in Hollywood, an R-rated film, so there's nothing to take away from Lion King's audience.

The following weekend is Hobbs and Shaw, which is from The Fast and Furious series, which has done pretty well at the box office. It could cut into Lion King's box office, but not to a large extent.

Not until Aug. 9 does another kid/family film hit theaters.

So Lion King should easily win the weekend box office again this coming weekend -- though winning three weekends in a row may be tough.

At the same time, I don't see anything that would pull away the audience to keep Lion King from reaching $500M.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Mon Jul 29, 2019 9:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

$75M second weekend for Lion King.

On one hand, it's well below the second weekend for Beauty and the Beast, which drew $90.4M.

However, Lion King has beaten BatB thus far on the weekdays. Case in point: Lion King's first Tuesday was $30.3M, which blew away BatB ($17.8M).

So it looks like the crowds that would normally come in on the weekends when school is in session, are coming in on weekdays to see Lion King.

Lion King still has a $31M lead over BatB, so $500M is still in play. It just needs to keep beating BatB on the weekdays.

But it doesn't look like Lion King will greatly surpass BatB's final tally.

--

Other noteworthy box office tidbits:

* Once Upon a Time in Hollywood pulled a solid number: $40.35M for its opening weekend. It looks like it could be a $100M film, which would be decent given the amount of blockbusters that have been rolled out thus far.

* Toy Story 4 hit $395M. It's $16M ahead of Toy Story 3 and that one reached $415M. So TS4 just might have a shot at $425M.

* Spidey added $12.2M. $375M is a lock, but it's dropping a fair amount on weekends. I imagine the studio will want to leave it as long as possible to see if it can break $400M, but it won't be a sure thing.

* Aladdin passed $345M and is still doing decent numbers. $350M is just a matter of time.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Thu Aug 01, 2019 12:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Second Monday numbers:

Lion King: $9.1M
Beauty and the Beast: $7M

Second Tuesday numbers:

Lion King: $15.2M
Beauty and the Beast: $9.4M

Again, this is where Lion King needs to make up the ground it's losing to BatB during the weekends.

It has a $41M lead over BatB and, if it outdraws it again Wednesday and Thursday, it's going to likely seal the deal for $500M.
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