The OtherArena

[Bob Morris]

Lion King added $38M this past weekend. Once again, it's behind Beauty and the Beast for weekend box office.

However, it's still $38M ahead of BatB because it keeps winning the weekdays.

So Lion King should be a $500M film -- it's just taking a different path than BatB took to get there.

--

Hobbs and Shaw won the weekend box office, opening at $60M. While that's not a strong number for Fast and Furious films, the franchise does well overseas and Hobbs and Shaw had $180M global take for its first weekend.

So the film's success is going to be measured more by what it does overseas. Domestically, it's probably going to top out around $150M. Internationally, it's going to do good business.

--

Milestones for several summer releases:

Toy Story 4 - $410M
Spidey Far From Home - $360M
Aladdin - $350M

Disney has been hitting it big this summer. The Spidey film is being distributed by Sony, so that's one hit that's not exclusively Disney.

[Bob Morris]

Lion King is up to $496M and has a $42M lead over Beauty and the Beast.

So it's going to finish ahead of BatB, the only question is how much ahead.

$525M is in play, perhaps $535M. Labor Day weekend could help a bit with its total.

---

Once Upon A Time In Hollywood is up to $114M and will pass Inglorious Bastards. I don't know if it has enough to catch Django Unchained, which pulled in $162M, but it's still a good showing for Tarantino.

Pulp Fiction would arguably be his best showing at the box office, though. While that pulled in $107.9M, that was in 1994, thus that number was more impressive at that time.

[jdw]

Oddly large drop for Spidey this weekend compared to Homecoming. It bled theaters quicker than Homecoming as well. Have a feeling that this will keep it from $400M.

[Steve Yohe]

I think #1 was a much better movie than #2.---Yohe

[jdw]

#1 was better than any MCU movie other than Cap 2, so that's an impossible standard for Far From Home to top.

#2 is a perfectly good MCU movie, better than most.

[Bob Morris]

So here's the top 10 domestic grossing movies so far

1. Endgame - $858.3M
2. Lion King - $523.5M
3. Toy Story 4 - $430.8M
4. Captain Marvel - $426.8M
5. Spidey Far From Home - $386.1M
6. Aladdin - $354.5M
7. Us - $175M
8. John Wick 3 - $170.9M
9. How to Train You Dragon 3 - $160.7M
10. Hobbs & Shaw - $159.2M

Disney has Frozen 2 and the next Star Wars film coming out and both will jump into the top 10 long before their runs end.

Other candidates to keep an eye on:

* It Chapter 2: The first film set a September opening record and finished at $327M. I suspect this one will have a big opening weekend, too, but have a bigger dropoff because more people show up for the first weekend. But $300M might be within its grasp.

* Jumanji 2: While it will go up against Frozen and Star Wars, the 2017 film in this series was a massive hit, drawing $400M domestic despite going against Last Jedi. If this one gets well received, it wouldn't surprise me if it gets to $400M.

There could always be a surprise film along the way. Joker, for instance, is getting plenty of positive reviews. IGN's reviewer gave the film its highest possible rating.

[Steve Yohe]

I would put my money on JOKER. The trailer sold me. ---Yohe

[Bob Morris]

It: Chapter 2 opened to $91M this weekend.

Has to be disappointing for the studio to open lower than the first part did, and likely means that the second part isn't going to reach $300M, unless it can show better legs than the first part.

[Bob Morris]

Joker drew $13.3M from Thursday previews.

Mojo is projecting an $85M opening weekend. Looks like it's on its way to that.

[jdw]

About $40M on Friday, including the Thu previews. Comfortably ahead of Venom.

[Bob Morris]

$93.5M estimated opening weekend for Joker. New October record.

Venom finished at $213M, so it would be a surprise if Joker doesn't hit $200M.

If it at least keeps pace with Venom, it should be good for $225M. If if stays ahead of Venom's pace, $250M might be in play.

[Steve Yohe]

JOKER seemed like just a basic well made movie. Not a lot of CG there. Only one major actor. Couldn't have cost much to make. My guess would be between 25 mil and 80 mil. I think a comic book movie has a lot of hanger on's, just looking to make money. Big budget films are like that. This film seemed to have integrity most don't, so a low price tag is possible.--- Yohe

[jdw]

Deadline has the production cost between $60M to $70M:

https://deadline.com/2019/10/joker-box-office-opening-weekend-1202752002

The Hollywood Reporter had it as a $55M budget *before* it started shooting:

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/heat-vision/joker-batman-suicide-squad-movie-plans-making-sense-dcs-moves-1119489

So that $60M-$70M sounds about right since these things rarely fail to overrun a bit.

The other key in the first one is the P&A (Prints and Advertising) cost of another $120M. Then factor in the theaters take their cut *before* money heads to the studios. The studios and their partners (who all get cuts) are out close to $200M before it opened.

This thing is going to make money - it's already over $234M global, and $500M+ is very likely. But I'd caution on thinking it's going to be a massive cash cow due to:

* it really isn't that cheap when factoring in the P&A

It is cheap relative to the big comic book movies, but ads were all over the place on TV... they are spending to make money here.

* this doesn't feel like it's going to make a ton of merch money relative to other comic books movies

Doesn't feel like there's going to be a ton of stuff moving to kids. The movie is very different from say Deadpool which could market stuff to teens. This would have to become something of a phenom before we see a lot of Joker gear out there.

* the money made off the streaming and tv is likely limited

This went into production when DC was pretty much at a low. WW was a full year before, and Justice League bombed after that. Aquaman hadn't come out yet. This movie might have been bundled with other DC movies, and quite possible not for a ton. If there was a lot of money in the deal, likely a large chunk of it headed over to the Wonder Woman 2 bucket and the Suicide Squad 2 budget, etc.

* theaters taking their cut


So...

We're going to see stories at the end of the year on how this was a big hit making $500M+ on a budget of $60M. It's going to make money for the studio, but not to the degree that ratio makes it look like.

[Bob Morris]

Joker drew $55M in its second weekend, just a 42.8 percent drop.

Mojo is doing a comp with Venom and Logan, the latter which drew $226M domestic. Joker is blowing both away.

$250M is a lock now. $275M is in play.

I don't think it's going to hit $300M, but another strong weekend will get it close to that.

[Steve Yohe]

Joker has made 548 mil world wise after it's 2nd weekend. Dropped only 42%.