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L.A. Dodgers = Fun (MLB Thread)
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jdw
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 14, 2021 11:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Huge game tonight.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 15, 2021 11:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Intense, huge win.

Vin Scully posted on twitter before the game that he thought it was the biggest game in the history of the rivalry - bigger than the legendary Game 157 in 1951, and bigger than Game 165 in 1962, both of which had massive 9th inning choke jobs by the Dodgers, and both of which Vin was at as a Dodgers broadcaster.

I thought maybe Vinny was getting a little carried away as both of those games were win-and-go-to-the-World Series games, while this was just win and go to the NLCS. I also try not to get too recency bias about these things. But...

Good lord was that an insanely intense game as I sat there watching it with my father. He thought it was as big of a Dodgers game as he could recall since Game 7 against the Twins (1965 Series), and that it would be really hard to stomach if we lost. He was psyched when Corey drove in Mookie, and deflated when Urias made the one bad pitch in the bottom of the same frame. He joked that Turner needed to "take one for the team" when he came up in the 9th, and sure enough Justin got plonked. :) He thought Cody was going to come through, and sure enough he did. My father went into major fist pumping mode after the check swing was called a strike... I can't recall my dad being as happy in recent months given his health issues.

Anyway...

Huge game. Regardless of what happens in the balance of the post season, I'm happy to have been able to share that with my dad.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 20, 2021 8:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ugh. Going to need to replicate last season, though the last two games this year would be in Atlanta while last season they were in a neutral park. Really tough.
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Steve Yohe



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PostPosted: Wed Oct 20, 2021 10:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Roberts had the best relievers I've ever seem this year. There was no reason to screw around with the starters. He was thinking too much & it killed them. That & bad breaks. In my eyes there are still champions, it just wasn't their year. --Yohe
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jdw
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 21, 2021 8:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Taylor is having one of the more insane playoff hitting games that I've ever seen.
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Steve Yohe



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PostPosted: Fri Oct 22, 2021 1:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

And he is a FA. Will they pay?--Yohe
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Steve Yohe



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PostPosted: Fri Oct 22, 2021 1:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

On nights like last night, Dodger Stadium goes crazy. The fans are nuts. I don't think it was like that, when I could afford to go, 20 years ago. -- Yohe
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 23, 2021 10:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Great season. Winning it all wasn't meant to be.

I don't have a problem with that. The Boys of Summer only won one World Title. The Garvey-Lopes-Russell-Cey Dodgers of my youth only won one World Series. With the Lakers, I'm greedy to chase down the Celtics. With the Dodgers, I'm happy to fire a lot of bullets at the title even if we only win one. The Drysdale-Koufax Dodgers of 1959-66 came to an end in the year that I was born, so the notion of three World Titles in a run wasn't something I've experienced so I'm not greedy.

On the other hand, it also would be nice to win two or more in this run. It's been a great team for a while, and likely has more shots to win.
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Steve Yohe



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PostPosted: Sun Oct 24, 2021 1:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Great year.

I think the run is over with all the FA & the farm clubs not want they were. Sad.

Yohe
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 24, 2021 11:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't think they're remotely done.

The Free Agents aren't brutal:

Position Players
Corey Seager ($13,750,000)
Chris Taylor ($7,800,000)

Part of the reason they got Tres Turner was because of the uncertainty about resigning Seager. I like Seager a ton. His injury habit has long been a concern, and his agent is Scott Boras which means he isn't giving the Dodgers a big discount. I'd love him to be consistently more health and for us to resign him. That said, Trea is a rather fine option if Seager prices himself out. Lux would take 2B and Trea would move over to his more natural SS. There's "cost savings" in going Trea+Lux vs Seager+Trea given Lux's lower contract, though Trea is a FA after the 2022 season and would want a long term deal and it wouldn't be cheap.

Taylor is a really useful utility player, and given the way the Dodgers manager their roster and the fact that injuries always pop up, there's some value to him beyond just the raw numbers. It's likely the Dodges want him back. The question becomes how much he wants to remain versus how much he wants to cash in after the big post season. The "cost savings" of Seager leaving may roll into resigning Taylor.

Again, it's a matter of how much. Muncy's recent extension was $26,000,000 over 3 years, with a team option for a fourth year at $13M vs a $1.5M buyout. I don't know if the Dodgers can get Taylor that cheap, even if he really isn't as good of a player as Muncy. We'll see.



Starters
Clayton Kershaw ($31,000,000)
Max Scherzer ($34,603,480)

I think Kershaw comes back for a short contract. The Dodgers will show him respect for his service, and he will likely want to stay around. Possibly some level of base + incentives that are more tied to health than performance.

Scherzer is 37 next year. It's not like you're signing him to a 10 year or even 5 year deal. My guess is that they will work to resign him, possible a 3 year that gives him the option to leave... similar to someone else.


Relievers
Kenley Jansen ($20,000,000)
Corey Knebel ($5,250,000)

They probably would like to keep Knebel if the price is right. Other teams might worry about his health risk and keep the price low. He missed another three months this season on top of the issues the past two seasons. The Dodgers have been pretty good about building the pen and turning player over in recent years, so Knebel isn't a make/break if he's not resigned. Would be if the price was right.

Jansen is a big question mark. Comeback season, though there was enough of the Annoying Jansen showing up this year to drive people crazy. The price is up there, and locking it in for multiple years is a worry if he goes off the bend. Even in the comeback he really wasn't as good as he had been in 2012-17 which got him that $20M a year contract. If they don't resign him, it means they have some confidence in someone else stepping into the role. I have a little faith in the Dodgers on that type of a decision.


Team Option
Joe Kelly ($12,000,000)

Kelly pitched quite well this year, up there with pretty much the best of his career. Banged up twice during the year, though. A little pricey, but the Dodgers hold the option on him. He's only leaving if the Dodgers waive him. I think they won't.


Player Options
Trevor Bauer ($35,333,333)

The Dodgers would like to get out from under this. If there were a way for them to cut him, save the money and roll the two years remaining on Bauer into the first two years of a three year contract for Scherzer... I think they would do it in a heart beat. It's likely they Dodgers Lawyers are already going over the contract with a fine tooth comb to figure out what would allow them to cut him while claiming to owe nothing. That really would be more about trying to find a buyout number after he were cut, such as half the remaining money. I don't think he pitches for the Dodgers again. He's either cut, or the Dodgers trade him somewhere but agree to eat almost all of the salary.

* * * * *

In the end, I don't think this is bad of a free agent picture as people think.

Seager would be a blow, but they set themselves up with the fall back of Trea... which is a pretty good fall back. Lux vs Seager, of course I like Seager more. But Lux has been in the Future 2B picture for some time, so it's really Seager vs Trea, and their respective future contracts. Again that's not a bad fall back.

Clayton will work out. Scherzer probably will, with them knowing more than we do that they don't want Bauer back.

Jensen is someone that a lot of Dodgers Fans wanted out of town years ago. If the club lets him walk, I don't think a lot of folks will cry.

Taylor is the tricky one. One thing the current Dodgers Front Office has done well is not to let sentimentality force them into overpaying for long term contracts on role players / role pitchers. If the price is right, they do it. If not, they move on. The club has potential long & large contracts coming up down the road on Bellinger, Urias and Buehler. They also are all due salary increases even before they hit FA.

They will be fine next year and the year after, barring injuries. Which is always the risk in the game.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 29, 2021 11:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Scherzer to the Mets for $130M / 3 years. $43.3M is a bit more pricey than the Dodgers wanted to go, especially with Bauer opting into his contract next season.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 29, 2021 4:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

And Seager to the Rangers for $325M for ten years.

This one was not a surprise. Boras is his agent, with the direction almost always the most $$$. As mentioned above, the Dodgers pretty much set themselves up for his departure with the trade for Trea Turner. Trea+Lux, with a likely push to sign Trea to an extension once the lockout issues are resolved.

Scherzer is more of a blow, though that price range is extremely rich even for the Dodgers. They are looking forward to large extensions for Trea, Buehler, Urias and Bellinger (if his post season .353/.436/.471 is an indication of a return to form). They have another 11 years on Mookie's contract at over $30M+ a year. It's rough to commit $30M+ a year to five different people on the roster without leave all the other roster spots to fill with cheaper players.

I do think they would have been willing to go to say $35M a year for 3 years with Scherzer, and perhaps incentives to bump it up (Cy, All Star, WS, etc). They had a few years left where Buehler, Urias and Bellinger aren't yet on their extentions, and this year with Mookie sub-$30M and Trea pre-extention. But Scherzer had a very strong offer, has already won a Ring, and is on the back end of his career where it's hard to ignore an extra $8.3M a year above $35M.
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