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Summer Box Office Update: Weekend of July 28-30
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corrado



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
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Location: LI

PostPosted: Fri Aug 18, 2006 11:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

i guess this is the boxoffice thread, so here's an update about the supposed next big box-office hit Snakes on a Plane and how it fared opening night.

http://www.usatoday.com/life/movies/news/2006-08-17-snakes-net-effect_x.htm

A bit of a disappointment actually. I thought there would be sold-out crowds after all that internet hype. I figured the late-night showings would attract many, many people.

Still its too soon to tell if it will be a flop. it does has a 30 million dollar budget, so it will make money. But I see it have a very gradual decline. Like 75 or even 80% the 2nd week, since I don't see that big of word of mouth for this film.
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Iron Chad



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 18, 2006 2:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'd wait for the weekend to end before I sound the death knell for "Snakes on a Plane". Only the really huge blockbusters tend to do really well with the late night showings and such. I'm betting they'll at least do their $30 million this weekend.

It probably didn't help that the trailers make the movie look really fucking stupid (like Samuel Jackson shooting off a side of the plane because of snakes? C'mon), but the trailers just confirmed that I'll have to see this movie. Then again back in the day, I really wanted to see "Attack of the Killer Tomatoes" too.

-Chad
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Frank_Jewett
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 18, 2006 2:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I figured something was up when I checked this morning and there were barely a handful of reviews posted. As Dr. Frank Swietek points out, releasing movies without prescreening them for critics is "an increasingly common practice, but still a bad sign."

Frank

"Instead of playing the thing for the ludicrous trash is obviously is, he actually tries to turn it into a legitimate thriller, which means it never achieves the instant camp status its pre-release buzz promised--all the laughs are definitely unintentional."
- Dr. Frank Swietek
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Sean Formato



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 18, 2006 8:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

That review is misguided and stupid. The best camp is done in earnest. Sure, SOAP "tries" to be a legit thriller; if a movie is winking at the camera every 5 minutes and marveling at its own ironic stupidity, then it won't be fun. SOAP is undoubtedly fun, and the entire theater of 300 screaming patrons got exactly what it expected from the film.
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corrado



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 19, 2006 9:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2006-08-18&p=.htm

6 Million for opening day. Not a good sign. It may have legs and do well today/tomorrow and even beyond this week but that's out on a limb.

A very surprising disappointment indeed. And a shame too. If my local movie theater was playing it, I would've gone yesterday, but it didn't, and I didn't feel like going out of the way to see it.

I'm positive it'll be a DVD smash though.
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corrado



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PostPosted: Sat Aug 19, 2006 10:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I should also point out, it was released in over 3,500 theaters. So the perscreen average must be very low. I guess a lot of moviehouses were playing to empty shows (?)
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corrado



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PostPosted: Sun Aug 20, 2006 11:05 am    Post subject: 8/20 Box Office Reply with quote

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/

So not only does Snakes on a Plane fail to grab the top spot, but it didn't even reach the top spot. A huge surprise indeed. I guess all that internet buzz was all for naught.

meanwhile POTC2 continues to do well. I think it passed Shrek 2 this weekend.

And Little Miss Sunshine did well in limited release.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 20, 2006 11:36 am    Post subject: Re: 8/20 Box Office Reply with quote

corrado wrote:
So not only does Snakes on a Plane fail to grab the top spot, but it didn't even reach the top spot. A huge surprise indeed. I guess all that internet buzz was all for naught.


The LA Times has a good article on "internet buzz" on Friday. Also, Mojo didn't predict a monster weekend for this - only in the mid-$20M range. Yeah, it *way* underperformed even that. Worse than that, it did nearly half (44%) of it's weekend box office on *Friday* alone. As in most anyone who really, really, really wanted to see this saw it opening night.

The movie is DOA.


Quote:
meanwhile POTC2 continues to do well. I think it passed Shrek 2 this weekend.


No. Shrek2 passed it on "pace" a week or more ago. Pirates had a chance to tie Shrek2's record for quickest to $400M on Saturday, but it slowed down a bit to get there, missing it by 2 days.

Still, it looks to get in the $410-420M range. There was a pretty strong ad campaign out for it this weekend to try to get some late momentum.

Sith had $14.7M left in the tank at this point. Spidey2 has $12.6M left. Shrek2 has $33M. Pirates looks to have more in the tank left than Sith and Spidey2 - it was comfortably ahead of weekday and weekend grosses of those two movies for this stretch. Heck, for the entire "week", Sith took $6.7M and Spidey2 took $5.3M. Pirates' weekend alone was estimates a shade over $5M. So I think it's still a safe bet to get to $415M+.

Going much beyond $420M was dependant on the ad campaign doing a strong job slowing ther box office down. The % decline for the movie was really minor. I don't think it will be enough to get it to $430M... though this move has surprised me pretty much from opening day to now on just how massive the box office has been.


John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 27, 2006 11:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Pirates ($408M) passed Spidey ($404M)with $4M this weekend to take have the #6 spot all-time. Shrek2 ($441M), ET ($435M), and TPM ($431) in the 3-5 spots are out of reach.

What's somewhat amazing is that it's per screen was only clearly topped by the new releases Invincible, Little Miss Sunshine and Idlewild (the last two in limited release). It's per screen was essentially the same as Talladega Nights, the #2 movie of the weekend.

It took a large -576 decline in theaters, which it, which is inline with what it's been bleeding the past few weeks. But it's weekend drops remain relatively small. The $415M+ in the prior post looks to be a pretty safe estimate, and $420M is a possibility if they want to leave it out to grind for that mark.


John
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corrado



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PostPosted: Sun Aug 27, 2006 12:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Here's the boxoffice this week.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?view=&yr=2006&wknd=34&p=.htm

I'm still baffled by the huge flop, Snakes on a Plane. I guess its internet hype. By next week, Little Miss Sunshine and even Accepted will pass it in terms of total gross. And that's downright odd.

I'm not surprised by Invincible at the top. Most of thse type movies (inspirtaional football movies) do well. I guess that means Gridion Gang with the Rock should be a hit too.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 27, 2006 12:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hard to guess how Rock's movie will do.

It plays "younger" than Invincible does, but it's not like Wahlberg skews to older people. He also has a moderate ability to drew in at least some chicks (though Football isn't a chick genre). Rock and his movie doesn't look like it has a shot at that at all. Wahlberg also has a bit more box office success in recent years than rock as a lead - The Italian Job and Four Brothers being his last two before this one.

I wouldn't hold my breath on it doing any better than the recent Rock movies have done.


John
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Steve Yohe



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 30, 2006 12:59 pm    Post subject: Aug & The Movies Reply with quote

When I saw the trailer for Rock's film, I thought that I wanted to see Rock but the film seems to have been done a million times. It's the stupid football movie I don't want to see, I like Rock. He needs a better agent & better projects. Cast him against his image.

I'm dying to see a decent movie, so I saw INVINCIBLE & I liked it. Wahiberg is a very interesting actor. It's no big deal tho.

I don't know why the studios alway give up on Aug. Every year they dump their bombs & junk in Aug. It's the worst month of the year...always. It's still summer & the kids are out of school. It should be a big boxoffice month. The people who go to the movies in Nov & Dec are still going in Aug. Shit release a good movie & maybe it will catch on with the morons & you'll make some money.

I worry about anyone who thought SNAKES ON A PLANE would make big money. I worry about anyone who thinks Samual Jackson is a big boxoffice star.--Yohe
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jdw
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 30, 2006 1:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm not sure folks give up on August entirely. They just focus on the first two weeks. From BoxOfficeMojo.com's August Openings page:

$226,164,286 Rush Hour 2 (8/03/01)
$227,966,634 Signs (8/02/02)
$129,394,593 Talladega Nights (8/04/06)
$145,103,595 American Pie 2 (8/10/01)
$142,109,382 XXX (8/09/02)
$80,282,231 Alien vs. Predator (8/13/04)
$116,934,650 S.W.A.T. (8/08/03)
$104,565,114 American Wedding (8/01/03)
$80,270,227 The Dukes of Hazzard (8/05/05)
$293,506,292 The Sixth Sense (8/06/99)

That's not the opening weekend numbers, but over the life of the movies. The (8/xx/xx) is the date the movies open.

It's looks like there is an attempt to cram a blockbuster in the first weekend each year:

2001 - Rush Hour 2 (the first was a surprise #7 for the year in 1998)
2002 - Signs (Night's return to Sixth Sense relm)
2003 - American Wedding (Pie 2 = $45M opening weekend in 08/01)
2004 - Collateral (Tom Cruise)
2005 - The Dukes of Hazzard (overestimated)
2006 - Talladega Nights (Will Ferrell)

Then the second weekend seems to be aimed at late teens, early 20s "genre" picks - Pie 2, XXX, Freddy vs. Jason and Alien vs. Predator in back-to-back years. Even The Princess Diaries 2 was amied at a niche - young chick flicks.

I suspect at some point there will be a string of Twister-Deep Impact-Mummy of big hits that open in mid or late August that will open up people's eyes. It's unlikely that there will even be a Spider-Man level of blockbuster. But I do think money is probably being left on the table for the right type of movie.

One of the problems is that kids are going back to school far earlier these days. And the last week or two of "summer vacation" are often times where families take vacations together to try to get it in while they can. So there likely is an upper limit to just how much Opening Weekend money a mid-to-late August movie can do. Then it becomes a matter of being one of those movies that gets some buzz, word of mouth and legs. In which case it's unlikely to be a "big blockbuster" on the drawing board (such as Pirates or even Dukes of Hazzard), and instead would likely be something like My Big Fat Greek Wedding - a smaller movie that goes through the roof.


John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 30, 2006 2:00 pm    Post subject: Re: Aug & The Movies Reply with quote

Steve Yohe wrote:
I worry about anyone who thought SNAKES ON A PLANE would make big money. I worry about anyone who thinks Samual Jackson is a big boxoffice star.--Yohe


Here's Jackson's page on Mojo:

Samuel L. Jackson

His last two movies made even less.

The last movie he "carried" that did decent was Coach Carter in 2005... which wasn't that long ago. Jackson works his ass of to cash in while he can. It's bleak before that as well. Changing Lanes looks like decent money until one sees the budget - that's not tht far above it. Shaft did $70M on a $46M budget, and very little overseas money.

Yeah... Sam sucks at the box office.

Wasn't someone pimping the Rock's movies as doing big money overseas?

$27,774,984 Doom
$10,786,173 Walking Tall
$33,190,150 The Rundown

No... they suck over there as well.

Ah... that's right... they're big on DVD!


John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Mon Sep 11, 2006 2:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Pirates went past a Billion:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/world/

No chance of catching RotK.

It's up to just under $417M domestic off a $1.99M weekend, so the $420M+ is just a matter of time. I don't think it will get to $425M, but who knows.


John
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