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Summer Box Office Thread 2008
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Bob Morris



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
Posts: 2848
Location: New Mexico

PostPosted: Tue Jun 17, 2008 11:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Brief updates:

* Iron Man will reach $300 million domestically this week... it's already up to $297 million.

* Indy 4 passed $276 million this week and will reach $300 million. It looks like this will be the king of the summer box office, unless another upcoming film opens to a huge weekend.

* Incredible Hulk opened with $55 million. It might get to $200 million if it has any legs, but $300 million won't happen.

* Speed Racer will go down as the summer box office bomb. I know there's foreign money to consider, but it's at $42 million domestically and I can't see how foreign money is going to be that much better.

* As for upcoming films, Get Smart opens this weekend and it's the early favorite to win this weekend's box office. Then the following weekend is Wall-E, the newest Pixar movie. And, of course, The Dark Knight (the next Batman movie) will open the weekend of July 18.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 22, 2008 9:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Indy vs. Iron Man can be tracked here:

BoxOfficeMojo.com: Summer 2008 Crown


Indy is about $14M ahead of Iron Man's pace, and about $14M overall behind Iron Man's current number. Negative for Indy is that it's bleeding each week, especially the weekends. About $6M this weekend, though I think the final numbers will come in higher given the heatwave. When I saw Indy last night, it was a packed theater (as in 95%+ full). Both are dropping theaters fast, but Indy has a 1200+ theater count advantage right now.

Iron Man still has good legs. It's a little less than $4M behind the pace of Transformers, but it came into the weekend over $6M behind... so it's shaving off numbers fast there. It made $5.5M more than Transformers last week, so I would suspect by next weekend that it will pass Transformer's pace.

Transformers made $319M, with a little over $10M left in the tank. I'd hazzard a guess that Iron Man might be up around $320-325M when it's done. Amazingly it has about twice as many theaters right now that Transformers had at the same point.

Indy is tracking just under $4M ahead of Pirates 3. It's not not exactly blowing it away - about $2M+ ahead of Pirates 3 in terms of what it's taken in over each of the last two weeks. It's going to top Pirates, but by how much? Pirates had $22M left in the tank, and got to $309M. I'm guessing Indy has $20M+ left in the tank, which will get it ahead of Pirates 3. It won't get it close to where Iron Man is likely headed.

I guess the key thing to watch is this coming week and weekend for two things - how big the drop in theater counts are for Indy and Iron Man, and what type of money each are making in what is probably the first week where all the kids are out of school. Indy with more theaters and a more recent release is better positioned to take in weekday $$$ from kids. If Indy doesn't slow the bleeding during the week, it's going to get eaten up buy these weekends coming the next three weeks for Iron Man:

$7,477,439
$5,620,375
$4,002,000 (estimate)

Those are going to bleed that $14M lead fast.

Barring Iron Man getting pulled fast or rapidly losing theaters, I think it will stay ahead of Indy.

As far as anyone catching it... I guess Batman would be the one people look to.

Hard to imagine Handcock doing it.

Wall-E strikes me as having to struggle like Ratatouille to get over the $200M mark, which for a long time looked like something Pixar would always laugh past.

Hellboy 2 has a really good "action" trailer, but it's not going to get to $300M.

Mummy 2 made $200M, and if they released Mummy 3 in 2003 or 2004, you would think it would have been a lock for $250M+. 2001 was a hell of a long time ago.

So it looks like Batman is the one that has the best chances of becoming a "phenom".

Something tells me that it won't, though it will do "well". The last one fought to get past $200M, tapping out at $205M. I think the economy is making it a hell of a lot hard for Mom & Dad to fork over a lot of money to the kids to see stuff a lot of times. I think $250M would be a strong positive for the movie.

I suspect we'll see opening weekend if it has a chance. It really needs to be north of Iron Man's $98M opening weekend. Of course with the summer it has the chance to make up ground on the weekdays. But Iron Man had those weekend legs for a lot of weekends after opening, right up to now. I don't think Batman can catch Iron Man from behind. If it does a $120M+ opening weekend, then it has a chance to end up the king of movies released in the summer.

John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 22, 2008 10:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Forgot to add:

Hulk has no legs. -61.1%, which only looks good relative to M Night's much bigger second weekend drop. It didn't break $100M this weekend. I'm thinking $150M is the goal now. In an amazing "you're not going to believe this" moment, it's currently behind Hulk 1:

$100,593,300 Hulk 1
$96,476,000 Hulk Reset

It did beat the second weekend of Hulk 1 by a $21.5M to $18.8M gap. Hulk 1 dropped all the way down to $8.2M. I suspect the reset will be down around $10M next weekend. All in all, $150M is more resonable, and going to be a bit of a challenge.

John
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Steve Yohe



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 23, 2008 12:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I though Hulk 1 was a better movie than Hulk 2...or at least tryed to be. As a film project, I don't know what you can do with Hulk. All he can do is fight other monsters etc. Why waist a major actor as Bruce Banner? It's the part of the movie people want to go away. In the comic, Hulk was always a supporting character anyway and a "kind of" heel. The big deal was having him fight The Thing, Thor, or the other heros. The first cross over movie might do well.

Hellboy 2 is the big summer movie for me. Loved the first one.

Yohe
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Bob Morris



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
Posts: 2848
Location: New Mexico

PostPosted: Mon Jun 23, 2008 1:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Iron Man definitely has to be the surprise hit of the summer box office season. As a comic book hero, Iron Man's popularity is nowhere near that of Spiderman, and the movie is doing Spiderman-type business.

Clearly the near-unanimous opinion of critics that Iron Man is a good or great movie has helped its cause. I watched it and found it very enjoyable... it uses a simple theme that people can relate to and doesn't take itself too seriously.

If any movie ever truly deserved to be the box office king, it's Iron Man.

As for Pixar, they clearly were going after an older audience with Cars and Ratatouille. Cars gets better every time I watch it and I loved Ratatouile the first time I saw it. It will be interesting to see if Pixar goes back to the kiddie demographic with Wall-E, and if they do, if they pull it off well so that adults enjoy it as well.

Tapping into the kiddie market isn't a bad thing, as DreamWorks does it all the time, although its results have been mixed at the box office. We all know about the Shrek franchise and Kung Fu Panda has been faring well, but as I recall, Madagascar didn't do that well at the box office, and neither did Shark Tale.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Mon Jun 23, 2008 1:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Pulled up some numbers for comparison regarding DreamWorks animated movies and Pixar

Dreamworks:

Shrek 2: $441,226,247
Shrek 3: $322,719,944
Shrek: $267,665,011
Madagascar: $193,595,521
Shark Tale: $160,861,908
Over the Hedge: $155,019,340

Shrek has been the most successful animated franchise for DreamWorks, and now the studio is going to do a fourth movie. Madagascar fell short of $200K and the other two were good, but the three were nowhere near the success of Shrek.

Pixar:

Finding Nemo: $339,714,978
The Incredibles: $261,441,092
Monsters Inc: $255,873,250
Toy Story 2: $245,852,179
Cars: $244,082,982
Ratatouille: $206,445,654
Toy Story: $191,796,233

That's six movies for Pixar that exceeded $200K, with Nemo being the king of the films. Additionally, Toy Story came out in 1995, so its numbers at the time were impressive.

I suspect kid appeal has much to do with Pixar's most succcessful franchises. John's point about families not taking the kids out to movies because of economics is certainly valid, but I also suspect how much the families are willing to take the kids to see Wall-E is going to depend on the kid appeal factor versus a storyline meant to appeal to adults.
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corrado



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
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Location: LI

PostPosted: Sun Jun 29, 2008 1:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Wall-E finished at #1 as expected, however it made a lower-than-expected $62.5 million. It still did very well and should make over 200 easily, adding to the never-ending group of Pixar smashes.

Wanted did much better than expected. It made over 51 million. But word of mouth may be mixed and it could have a Hulk type decline, rather than an iron Man (miniscule decline)

Indiana Jones is just about at the 300 mark and could surpass Iron man in a matter of days. It'll be the #1 movie of the year till Dark Knight opens in 3 weeks.

next week, Hancock should easily take the top spot, perhaps making over 120 mil in 5 days. Its advance reviews have been mixed, but its only an hour and a half, which means more times that the movie can play.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 29, 2008 9:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

corrado wrote:
Wall-E finished at #1 as expected, however it made a lower-than-expected $62.5 million. It still did very well and should make over 200 easily, adding to the never-ending group of Pixar smashes.


Some good opening weekend comps:

$62,500,000 Wal-E
$60,119,509 Cars
$60,239,130 Kung Fu Panda
$47,027,395 Ratatouille

Final tally:

$244,082,982 Cars
$206,445,654 Ratatouille
$179,330,000 Kung Fu Panda

Kung Fu Panda is about $14M ahead of the pace of Ratatouille, and just a behind the "to date" of Cars. On the other hand, Kung Fu's legs haven't been as good as Cars. It's legs actually have been better than Ratatouille's. So that's going to do $200M.

Given that, barring a massive bombing coming the second weekend and the July 4th weekend, one would expect Wall-E to comfortably get past $200M. An indicator may be how it's weekday number do in comp with Kung Fu Panda and Ratatouille this week.


Quote:
Wanted did much better than expected. It made over 51 million. But word of mouth may be mixed and it could have a Hulk type decline, rather than an iron Man (miniscule decline)


This was the teenage/young 20s movie for the week. It's pretty amazing how much it made. People should comp this to movies where Rock was the top star. :)


Quote:
Indiana Jones is just about at the 300 mark and could surpass Iron man in a matter of days.


It continues to bleed to Iron Man. It's "to date" lead is now just $11M after dropping about another $2.5M this weekend. Iron Man also pulled in $2.3M this week, to Indy's $5M. That's three weeks out ahead of Indy - I'm 100% certain that Indy isn't going to be making $2.3M on it's 9th weekend. Indy also hasn't "won" a head-to-head day (i.e. Week 5 Fri vs. Week 5 Fri) since for more than a week - way back on the Week 4 Thursdays.

In other words... I don't think Indy is catching Iron Man.

Here's the Mojo Summer Crown chart:

BoxOfficeMojo.com: SUMMER 2008 CROWN

I think this is a bit like Spidey last year. It's not so much that Spidey or Iron Man were "lights out" box office for the crown. It's more than the movies that looked like locks (Shrek, Pirates and Indy) didn't turn take off. Iron Man is of course way above expectations, whereas Spidey-3 was the *worst* performing Spidey movie at the Box Office by more than $35M.


Quote:
It'll be the #1 movie of the year till Dark Knight opens in 3 weeks.


I'm thinking Iron Man will stay the #1 movie of the year until either:

* Dark Night becomes a phenom; or

* something else comes along and becomes a phenom late in the year

Dark Night is going to have to jump it's last movie by well over $100M to beat Iron Man. To do that, you really have to be a phemon of a sequel. Shrek 2 did, and for the life of me I still can't figure out why it did. Pirates 2 did as well, and that one I get a little bit more.

Dark Night has a chance, but a lot of things need to come together for repeat viewing.


Quote:
next week, Hancock should easily take the top spot, perhaps making over 120 mil in 5 days. Its advance reviews have been mixed, but its only an hour and a half, which means more times that the movie can play.


Will is one of the strong "openers" out there. It should do well out of the gate. Legs are a question, as are repeat viewings. But it should take advantage of that long week/weekend, though not to the degree Transformers did last year.

I still go back to Pirates-3 last year. I think they made a monsterous mistake last year of not opening later, speciafically taking either the spot Transformers did (which would have run like hell from them), or taking it's normal weekend after the 4th spot. They had an amazingly successful spot where they not only become the "event" of the second half of the summer, but they tended to have good legs to clean up the rest of the summer with little pressure to lose theaters and it's entire run eating up good "school's out" weekday crowds. Coming so close to Spidey and Shrek was just dumb. I'm about 100% confident that if it came out in either of those slots it would have ended up ahead of Spidey-3 for the crown, regardless of the quality of the movie.


John
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Jeremy Billones



Joined: 07 Aug 2006
Posts: 523
Location: Alexandria, VA

PostPosted: Mon Jun 30, 2008 7:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Get Smart is estimated at $20,000,000 exactly, which means somebody is lying bigtime :) 50% drop isn't great, but at $77M so far it's likely to make it to $115M and turn a tidy profit.

I saw it (along with WALL-E) last night with my cousin. He liked it, but
was disappointed it wasn't a 90 minute episode. I really liked that
they tried to make it more of a real movie and less of a Naked Gun thing.
Trying to write somebody else's style of humor never works -- you have
to find your own funny. And while Carrell's take is different from Adams',
they're both equally Maxwell Smart.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Mon Jun 30, 2008 9:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Wasn't I one of those who said that Spidey 3 and Shrek 3 might do enough to cut into Pirates 3's numbers? :)

I think the reason Shrek 2 pulled in such a monster number was much the same reason Pirates 2 did monster business, in that word of mouth about how good the first one was led to more people getting hooked via DVD rentals and thus flocking to see the second.

The first Shrek remains, IMO, the best of the Dreamworks animated movies... a smartly-told storyline that appeals to kids and adults, and the various jokes about fairy tales is something everyone can relate to because these fairy tales have been passed down from generation to generation.

Shrek 2 wasn't as good as the first film, but it had Antonio Banderas doing Puss in Boots to perfection. So I'd suspect that boosted Shrek 2 as well, kind of like certain TV shows catch on because of some popular supporting character.
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corrado



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PostPosted: Sun Jul 06, 2008 3:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

As expected, Hancock was #1 at the boxoffice this weekend with 66 million from Friday thru Sunday and 107 million for the 5 days it was released. It could've been a little better, but still another big hit for Will Smith. I don't see it having legs though, esp with the Dark Knight being released in a couple of weeks.

Wall-E was the #2 movie making 33.4 million this weekend. it now has made 128 million in the 2 weeks it was out. Another solid total for Pixar.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 06, 2008 7:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

June Animation

Opening weekend comps:

$62,500,000 Wal-E
$60,119,509 Cars
$60,239,130 Kung Fu Panda
$47,027,395 Ratatouille

Through the second weekend:

$128,132,000 Wal-E
$117,289,932 Kung Fu Panda
$117,055,283 Cars
$109,531,598 Ratatouille

WAL-E's weekend estimate is a couple $100K behind Panda and Cars. But it also better Mon-Sun than any of them, so some of its weekend bled a bit into the holiday. Cars was an early June release like Panda, while Cars and Rat were the weekend before the 4th. That means Cars will get a little bump along the way when it hits the week of the 4th in its cycle.


Final tally:

$244,082,982 Cars
$206,445,654 Ratatouille
$193,395,000 Kung Fu Panda

Panda continues to do well. $18M over the course of last week, $7M+ over this weekend. It's still comfortably ahead of Rat's pace ($179.9M to this point). It's a pretty safe bet for $220M.

I'm guessing WALL-E will be in the $230M to $240M range, perhaps $250M if it shows strong legs.

John
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Steve Yohe



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PostPosted: Mon Jul 07, 2008 4:00 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

When was the last time a drama or a serious film made 200m or was a huge hit? I can't remember one.--Yohe
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jdw
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 07, 2008 5:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

$600,788,188 Titanic (1997)
$370,782,930 The Passion of the Christ (2004)
$329,694,499 Forrest Gump (1994)
$233,632,142 Cast Away (2000)
$216,540,909 Saving Private Ryan (1998)

Ryan is a "war movie", so it might not fit what you mean. But it's perhaps closer to drama than action war movie... despite all the war action in it.

Don't see Cast Away as a straight adventure movie.

Gump was a tweener of drama and comedy. But clearly a pretty serious movie.

Titanic was an old school epic, but you'd have to say it pretty much was a drama.

Passion fits what you're talking about, and is the most recent.

John
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corrado



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PostPosted: Sat Jul 19, 2008 9:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/

Dark Knight made over 66 million yesterday, including over 18 million for midnight showings. It has a very good chance of besting the 151 million Spiderman 3 made last year and have the highest grossing weekend in boxoffice history.
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