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Summer Box Office Thread 2008
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corrado



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PostPosted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 10:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5jb68x_tOGx8QHjI0Cr6C-Vy79OGgD921LBQO0

So the record is broken. Now we'll see if it has enough legs to make some serious damage in the weeks to come. It should be at the top for a few weeks at least.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 12:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Batman looks like the phenom I was talking about earlier in the thread.

Mojo added Batman to their Summer Crown chart:

BoxOfficeMojo.com: Summer 2008 Crown

Indy is about $2M behind Iron Man, and down under a $1M weekend. It's going to be really close between the two. Sort of depends on how long Indy stays out simply to chase it.

I would expect Batman to top them given the opening. By the end of Monday, it's going to be closer to Indy's open than people think by just looking at the weekend numbers. Indy was a five-day opening with the Thur and Memorial Day. It ended up at $151M over the five days, ast people seemed to spread themselves out. I'm guessing Batman will do $10M+ on Monday and end up at $165M+. That's a big lead on Indy, which didn't have monsterous legs. Then Batman gets summer weekdays, and will probably have Indy buried by the end of next weekend.

I would guess $350M if it has legs similar to Spidey last year (due to the advantage of Summer weekdays), and $400M+ if it has legs like Pirates-2.

John
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 6:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Certainly an impressive number for Dark Knight. I know many reviews for it have been positive, plus it's Heath Ledger's final movie if I'm not mistaken (I don't recall him doing another project at the time he killed himself).

No doubt the decision to release it in July, away from some of the other big-name franchises, and the fact Batman Begins was quite well received, even if it didn't top $300 million at the box office.

I would anticipate a sharper dropoff for Dark Knight than for Ironman, simply because Dark Knight had a fanbase that truly wanted to see it. But if it shows better legs than Indy 4, it's going to have a good shot at claiming the summer box office crown.
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eron



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PostPosted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 7:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bob Morris wrote:
Certainly an impressive number for Dark Knight. I know many reviews for it have been positive, plus it's Heath Ledger's final movie if I'm not mistaken (I don't recall him doing another project at the time he killed himself).


Supposedly it was him accidentally overdosing, not a purpose overdose, but thats nitpicking.

Anyway, there is still The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 21, 2008 12:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bob Morris wrote:
I would anticipate a sharper dropoff for Dark Knight than for Ironman, simply because Dark Knight had a fanbase that truly wanted to see it. But if it shows better legs than Indy 4, it's going to have a good shot at claiming the summer box office crown.


Through First Monday
$151,958,445 Indy-4
$109,053,236 Iron Man

That's Iron Man has been fighting uphill against all Summer. The pace now is down to +3M for Indy as of this weekend, and Indy overall is just under $2M overall behind. They're both bleeding theaters, but with its earlier release date, Iron Man is in about 400 less theaters (though Indy handed over a lot of theaters this weekend), and down to just 375 overall.

Iron Man may hold onto the lead over Indy, but it will be very close. And the reason it was close was that $42M+ lead that Indy had after Memorial Day when lined up with where Iron Man was after it's first Monday.


Through First Sunday
$155,340,000 Batman
$125,178,907 Indy-4
$102,118,668 Iron Man

$53M lead, which will be larger by the end of Monday because it's a Summer Weekday. It's likely going to have well over a $60M lead going into next weekend, and even with a 60% drop, it's 2nd weekend will stack up like this:

$62,136,000 Batman
$51,190,629 Iron Man
$44,754,615 Indy

Even a 65% drop would give Batman $54M next week.

Iron Man isn't going to pick up ground on Batman on *weekends* until Week 3, where it had a strong $31.8M. But on weekdays, Batman will have the advantage for a good number of weeks.

I don't think Batman's "lead" over Ironman has come close to peaking. I'm guessing it will top out at $70M+ ahead of Iron Man's pace at least before falling back. Indy only topped out at $44M, later that first week before the dime turned. Iron Man just isn't going to comeback from a $70M gap.

John
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Jeremy Billones



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PostPosted: Mon Jul 21, 2008 8:09 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Batman - Biggest opening ever, as of 1989, first $40 million opening ever
Batman Returns - Biggest opening ever, as of 1992, first $45 million opening ever
Batman Forever Biggest opening ever, as of 1995, first $50 million opening ever
Batman & Robin - 3rd biggest opening of 1997, 8th biggest opening ever as of 1997
Batman Begins 9th biggest opening of 2005, $48.7m, #47 opening of all time when it landed

And of course, now TDK has another Biggest Opening Ever.

http://www.mcnblogs.com/thehotblog/archives/2008/07/sick_of_it_but.html#comments
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sideswipe70



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PostPosted: Wed Jul 23, 2008 9:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Batman - Biggest opening ever, as of 1989, first $40 million opening ever
Batman Returns - Biggest opening ever, as of 1992, first $45 million opening ever
Batman Forever Biggest opening ever, as of 1995, first $50 million opening ever
Batman & Robin - 3rd biggest opening of 1997, 8th biggest opening ever as of 1997
Batman Begins 9th biggest opening of 2005, $48.7m, #47 opening of all time when it landed

And of course, now TDK has another Biggest Opening Ever.


Poland is stretching things to try to play down how huge this is. Yes, Batman to Batman Forever broke records, but then the franchise declined steeply. Batman Begins helped matters, but the buzz for Ledger was incredible, and giving the critics a screening the week before it was release was pure genius, because it took the Oscar buzz to a completely different level. It's hard to argue that TDK is not the best marketed movie of the year.

(Iron Man deserves credit for it's marketing, but the key choice it made was to be the first movie off of the blocks; my goofy answer to which movie was the best marketed would be "The Incredible Hulk", as it was running against:
(a) the previous movie being a disappointment,
(b) a flood of superhero movies, and
(c) a star who was not happy with how the final cut came out and did not want to do press for the movie

And yet it's poised to end up making more than the 2003 version.)

To put how ridiculous TDK is performing in perspective, it ranks as the #1 movie for first 7 days opening, which is ridiculous because that counts only the first 5 days it has been in release. It's made $200MM in 5 days, which beats Pirates2, Spidey1 and Star Wars Episode 3 which each took 8 days to make $200MM. Next up is $300MM and it's going to make it by the end of the weekend. $400MM seems reachable as well. The real question seems to be whether it's going to challenge Titanic or not.

Quote:
I would anticipate a sharper dropoff for Dark Knight than for Ironman, simply because Dark Knight had a fanbase that truly wanted to see it.


With all due respect, you are expecting wrong Bob. We actually have a couple of really good examples of how we can expect TDK to perform: Spider-Man and Spider-Man 2. Both were highly anticipated. Both had a built in fanbase that truly wanted to see these movies. Both were very well reviewed. Both had a second weekend that everybody stayed clear of. What were their dropoffs? Spider-Man - 37.8%, Spider-Man 2 - 48.7%.

The fact is that movies with good word of mouth tend to have better legs than those without. Also, movies with built in fanbases tend to decline softer because the fanboys want to see the movie as many times as possible (noted exception to this: pissing off your fan base). Dark Knight has unbelievable word of mouth, to the point that it is stretching beyond it's expected target audience. It also has pleased its fan base. I think TDK's drop is going to be very gradual. I'd expect a mirror of Spider-man 1's weekend drop (~40% for the first 4 weekends after release). At the same time, I would not be shocked if TDK was over $100MM for this weekend as well. The buzz is there, the fanbase is there, the theatre count is there. All of these factors could lead to a huge second weekend, one that nobody is expecting.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 25, 2008 6:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

$24,493,313 Mon
$20,868,722 Tue
$18,377,288 Wed
$16,464,405 Thu

To say the least - monsterous.

Week 1
$238,615,211 Dark Knight
$145,840,212 Indy-4
$123,134,395 Iron Man

The Summer Battle is over. Frankly it was over when Batman made almost as much on non-holiday Monday ($24.5M) as Indy did on Memorial Day ($26.8M). I wish I wasn't so busy this week and caught it earlier, because on Tuesday Morning when those Monday numbers came in, it was clear that the race was over.

It may not be a "lock" that DK is a $400M after this weekend, but I suspect by Tuesday we'll see how it's legs are into next week. If it's still doing $10M on this coming Monday, it would have to completely collapse to not get to $400M. In fact, at that point we're going to need to start thinking about $500M.

This does look to be a phenom.

John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 26, 2008 10:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Before hitting Friday, to go back to the numbers for the weekdays that I posted:

Quote:
$24,493,313 Mon


4th biggest Monday ever, the biggets non-holiday Monday ever. The prior non-holiday record was:

$18,140,271 Pirates-2

Busted that by $6M.


Quote:
$20,868,722 Tue


Second biggest Tue of all-time. The biggest:

$27,851,016 Transformers

That was opening night, the day before the 4th of July. What that really was is a "Friday Opening" for Transformers since no one had to work the next day. It's not comperable at all.

The non-Holiday, Non-Opening Night record was:

$15,731,919 Pirates-2

Beat that by $5M.


Quote:
$18,377,288 Wed


12th all-time. Of the Top 11, 10 of them are Opening Nights, and one is the 4th of July for Transformers.

The non-Opening night record was:

$14,154,725 Pirates-2

Broke that by $4M.


Quote:
$16,464,405 Thu


12th all-time. Everything above it are Opening Nights or Second Nights, with the exception of Transformers 3rd night. Right below it is the 9th day of The Two Towers, which was the day after Christmas. There are more holiday related dates for movies before you get down again to Pirates-2:

$14,154,725 Pirates-2

Broke that by about $2.5M.

One does see one consistent data point, on short term trend, and one long term trend:

* the data point is Pirates-2 was the earlier record older on all of these

* TDK is topping it, and as a result opening a Big Lead:

Through First Thu
$238,615,211 TDK
$196,019,502 Pirates-2

$40M is a lot to be ahead of a movie that made $423M.

* While "leading" each day, that lead is a bit less each day

That's just a little something to keep an eye on. Pirates-2 had good legs in addition to the wicked opening.

Also don't forget - Shek-2 had exceptional legs, and started cutting into what had been a $32M "lead" that Pirates-2 was ahead by at the end of Week 1 to finished about $18M ahead overall.

Yes, I know that Pirates-2 was released two years later. That's the point - TDK is "leading" a pair of $400M movies right now. The lead over Shrek-2 is massive:

$238,615,211 TDK
$164,735,354 Shrek-2

And you say to yourself that it's *impossible* to lose a $74M lead.

Well...

Shrek-2 "came back" to to top Pirates-2 comforably.

If Pirates-2 "comes back" on TDK, then of course Shrek-2 comes back as well.

I do think TDK is a $400M movie baring a huge collapse, which will need to kick in pretty quick. And it has an outstanding chance at Pirates-2 and Shrek-2. But it's not a lock for them... *yet*.

Friday?

$23,150,000 TDK

Prior record for a non-Holiday, 2nd Week Friday was:

$20,155,038 Shrek-2
$19,906,574 Spidey
$18,544,356 Pirates-2

So you do see Shrek-2 finally pop up as the movie to watch. TDK put another $4.5M+ between it and Pirates-2. And there's another $400M phenom movie popping up - Spidey.

Shrek-2 won't be a good comp for the coming Monday since that's it's Memorial Day, where it cut a nice chunk off of Pirates-2's lead to start reeling it in. It will be the same against TDK, but as we see above, it's not *yet* reeling TDK in. Still a $3M gap.

One to watch for is Sunday since Shrek-2 often did good on Sundays, likely due to being a kid movie, good day to take the kids to the movies.


John
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corrado



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PostPosted: Sun Jul 27, 2008 11:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dark Knight made 23.2 on Friday, 28.2 million yesterday, and 24.1 today, totaling 75.6 million which would be a smaller than expected decline of 52%. And its now at 314.2 million making it the top-grossing movie of the year already, a feat that nobody will top.

Its showing lots of legs and will have another small decline next week.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 27, 2008 12:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It destroyed the record of the fastest to $300M - just 10 days compared to Pirares-2 doing it in 16.

Non-Holiday, Second Saturdays:
$30,505,929 Spidey
$28,100,000 TDK
$27,235,110 Shrek-2
$25,178,865 Spidey-3
$24,846,771 Pirates-3

Non-Holiday, Second Saturdays:
$24,780,215 Shrek-2
$24,330,000 TDK
$21,005,024 Spidey
$18,954,137 Pirates-3
$18,708,290 Sith
$18,537,522 TPM

You start seeing a bit of the issue with legs. Shrek-2 is coming on, and TPM is going to be showing up. But TDK has a massive lead:

Through 2nd Friday (just the $400M movies of the list above):
$314.2 TDK
$258.4 Pirates-2
$236.9 Shrek-2
$223.0 Spidey
$191.6 TPM

It's just a ridiculous lead.

Shrek-2 will cut into it on Monday since that's it's Memorial Day. Shrek-2 also had just amazing legs, especially once summer came as it will be pulling in better weekday numbers than TDK eventually. But that's not happening too soon.

The numbers to watch for next weekend:

$45,036,912 Spidey
$37,931,716 Shrek-2
$35,215,201 Pirates-2
$33,315,278 Titanic
$32,891,653 TPM

You'll notice that Titanic shows up for the first time, and rather strongly. It wins *every* weekend after the 3rd weekend, with that 4th weekend being the only one that's close (just beats out Spidey). It's still pulling in $20M in the 10th weekend, while #2 ET is down at $8M. It's still pilling in $19M and $17M in the two weeks after that.

That's why Titanic is so hard to beat. It's legs are just fucking ridiculous.

The other thing when looking at the weekends moving forwards - the last time one of the "blockbusters" of the 00's appears in the all-time Top 20 is the 8th weekend: Pirates-1, down in 11th. Nemo also is on that list in 12th, though it's not exactly a blockbuster. Pirates-1 made $7.97M that week, while Titanic made $23M. *That* is how hard Titanic is to catch.


John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 30, 2008 1:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

$10.5M on Monday, $9.6M on Tue. Against the $400M movies listed above:

2nd Mon
$23,408,002 Shrek-2 (Memorial Day)
$15,504,435 TPM (Memorial Day)
$10,518,116 TDK
$7,912,691 Pirates-2
$5,211,249 Spidey

2nd Tue
$9,629,366 TDK
$7,490,004 Pirates-2
$5,806,676 Shrek-2
$5,459,637 TPM
$4,527,566 Spidey

This remains rather impressive. Shrek-2 took a big bit out of TDK's lead on Monday, but TDK went right back to work extending it.

John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 01, 2008 10:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mojo put out an All-Time Grossers Showdown:

BoxOfficeMojo: All-Time Grossers Showdown

It's Titanic, Shrek-2, TPM and now TDK. It would be nice to have Pirates-2 and Spidey-1 in it simply to have all the recent $400M movies. TDK is going to blow by Spidey, and probably Pirates-2, but they do make interesting comps.

What the chart does well is show the quailty legs of TPM (a different era of how Box Office is drawn) and Shrek-2 (surprising how well it held it's drawing power). And of course what a freak Titanic was. We're talking about a movie that pulled in a $21M gate 10 weeks out, was still drawing $15M+ 15 weeks out... and still had $85M in the tank *after* that weekend.

Think about that last one.

$90M - The Game Plan
$85M - Titanic *after* 15th weekend

The Game Plan is Rock's biggest hit that he anchored (setting aside Scorp King that prequeled the rather big Mummy franchise). It's pretty much the movie that will keep the checks coming to Rock for a good time to come.

Just wild what a freak Titanic was.

John
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corrado



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PostPosted: Sun Aug 03, 2008 1:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dark Knight managed to stay at #1 despite the new Mummy movie opening. Dark Knight made 43.8 million while the Mummy IV made 42.4 million.

Dark Knight now has made 394.8 million and should cross the 400 mark by tomorrow, and also has a very good shot at making 500 million.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 05, 2008 4:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Per the Mojo, TDK passed $400M on Monday as predicted, though it was one of those "close" numbers that one tends to suspect:


Mojo: Fastest to $400M

I do think this weekend is when it falls behind the weekend gross of Titanic, likely stays behind Spidey, and could fall behind Shrek-2's weekend gross if it dips far enough. For Spidey and Sherk-2, it won't matter because it will have blown Spidey *today*, and will be closing in on Shrek-2 by the end of the weekend.

Still, this is when it's going to be hitting Titanic's monster leg weekends. Titanic is "so far behind" that one isn't going to see the To Date race closing between the two for ages. In fact, it's likely that we'll know more about TDK's chances by just looking at it and trying to project out what it might have left.

It's still $200M away. Really hard seeing it get that unless it pulls in a box office over $30M this weekend showing its legs are far better than could be expected.


John
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