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2010 Box Office Thread
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jdw
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 29, 2010 9:17 am    Post subject: 2010 Box Office Thread Reply with quote

A week away from the start of the summer movie season, with Iron Man 2 in the "leadoff" spot (i.e. the first full weekend of May).

My recollection is that the start of putting a strong movie in that spot was off the success of The Mummy. There were other movies that did well in the first week of May prior to that, but you didn't really see a patern of a major release being dropped there. The Mummy did very strong business in advance of The Phantom Menace. Ever since, we typically get even bigger movies in that spot:

2000: Gladiator
2001: Mummy 2
2002: Spidey
2003: X-2
2004: Van Helsing
2005: Kingdom of Heaven
2006: MI-III
2007: Spidey 3
2008: Iron Man
2009: X-Origins


Kingdom of Heaven is the one massive bomb in the slot. One can see the thinking on it: Gladiator 2 in a sense from Ridley Scott. Robin Hood is Glaiator 3. :)

Van Helsin was a poor performer, but opened well before falling off the cliff. MI-III also was a relatively poor performer in the spot. 2004-2006 was the down period for the leadoff spot, part if it due to Spidey 2 being moved the 4th of July slot. I don't recall at all why they wanted that spot rather than the early may they took for 1 and 3.

John


Last edited by jdw on Sun Jan 09, 2011 6:45 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Steve Yohe



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PostPosted: Thu Apr 29, 2010 11:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kingdom of Heaven made over 211 million world wide & made some money. The directors cut is a great movie.----Yohe
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Steve Yohe



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PostPosted: Thu Apr 29, 2010 11:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

With Iron Man 2 not being in 3D, its number will be disappointing to many. Every non-3D film will look weak from now on.---Yohe
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jdw
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 30, 2010 6:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Steve Yohe wrote:
Kingdom of Heaven made over 211 million world wide & made some money. The directors cut is a great movie.----Yohe


$47M in the US = Major Bomb

Especially given it cost $130M to make, and was in a slot where every other big release since The Mummy has made over $100M easy.

I know you like the movie, so I'm not knocking the quality. Just indicating that it's the one major move in that slot that bombed. Even Van Helsing, which fell off quickly, made more in its first weekend than Kingdom made in its run.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 30, 2010 6:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Steve Yohe wrote:
With Iron Man 2 not being in 3D, its number will be disappointing to many. Every non-3D film will look weak from now on.---Yohe


I'm thinking it will still top $100M. If Alice could do $100M with it being a harder movie to sell, Iron Man 2 should easily get there.

There's also are some movies that do better with the 2nd than the first: Pirates, Sherk, The Dark Night and Transformers. It's not a lock as we can find plenty of sequels that don't, such as Spidey. But Iron Man had a real positive buzz for the first one, and it feels like people have been waiting for a sequel. It does have Robin Hood coming quickly on its heels, so the second week should give us a big clue on whether it will have the same type of legs as the first one.

John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Mon May 03, 2010 11:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

From BoxOfficeMojo:

Around-the-World Brief: 'Iron Man 2' Soars Past $100 Million

I think it's going to do quite well.

John
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matt farmer
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PostPosted: Tue May 04, 2010 3:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm a fan of most Comic Hero movies, and I'm really looking forward to Iron Man 2. The first was one of my favorites of the genre.

How much do you think Burger King/ 7 Elevens ect is paying for the tie in? And does that count for box office & money generated against what they spend in budget?
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jdw
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PostPosted: Mon May 10, 2010 5:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

$128M for IronMan 2. #5 opening weekend of all-time:

Mojo: Opening Weekends

Pretty frontloaded on Friday, moreso than Iron1. Looks like a $300M movie, with next weekend being the tell on $400M with Robin Hood opposite it. Would think it would need to stay #1, or at least pull in $60M+ to make a run at $400M. It doesn't have the advantage of Summer Weekdays like Transformers 2 did in piling up $10M+ on Mon-Thur of its first full week out.

I confess that I thought it would up above Twilight's $140M, if not in the $150M range.

John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sun May 16, 2010 3:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Weekend estimates:

$53,000,000 Iron Man 2
$37,114,000 Robin Hood

IM2 races past $200M and *slightly* tops the 2nd weekend of IM1:

$53M IM2
$51M IM1

Through the second weekend:

$212M IM2
$178M IM1

That doesn't look like a $400M movie, but should comfortably get to $300M. The legs to get to perhaps $350M will be flashed next weekend where IM1 took in $32M and flashed a very good, slowing decline in the box office.

Doesn't seem like there's the buzz for Robin Hood to get much past $100M, if there given how competative the box office is going to become. That's too bad. :(

John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Fri May 21, 2010 10:06 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Likely monster opening this weekend:

$121,629,270 Shrek-3
$108,037,878 Shrek-2

That's #6 and #12 of all-time per Box-Office Mojo. This year's top opening weekends:

$128,122,480 Iron Man-2
$116,101,023 Alice
$61,235,105 Clash of the Titans
$56,260,707 Valentine's Day

Don't know if there's quite the same buzz among fans as there was for the opening of the last two Shreks. But you would think this will be up in the $100M+ range to open.

John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Fri May 21, 2010 3:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Iron Man 2 through the first two weeks:

$224,664,803 Iron Man 2
$191,285,389 Iron Man

Most of the lead was from the first week with it very tight on what they took in the second week: $65.5M IM2 vs $64.7M IM. IM2 "won" Fri-Sat-Tue-Wed, while IM took Sun-Mon-Thu.

Iron Man had the monster 3rd weekend of $31.8M, down just 38% and at the time 8th all-time (since topped by TDK, Avatar and Alice). That weekend as much as anything was an indication that it wasn't going to be an X-Man style frontloaded movie.

At this same stage, IM had $127M left in the tank. IM2 needs a little over $75M to get to $400M. If it drops to the low $20M, it might not get there as we reach the point of theater congestion. If it's in the mid-to-high $20M range, I'm thinking it will make a run.

John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sun May 23, 2010 2:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

jdw wrote:
Likely monster opening this weekend:

$121,629,270 Shrek-3
$108,037,878 Shrek-2

That's #6 and #12 of all-time per Box-Office Mojo. This year's top opening weekends:

$128,122,480 Iron Man-2
$116,101,023 Alice
$61,235,105 Clash of the Titans
$56,260,707 Valentine's Day

Don't know if there's quite the same buzz among fans as there was for the opening of the last two Shreks. But you would think this will be up in the $100M+ range to open.


$121,629,270 Shrek-3
$108,037,878 Shrek-2
$71,250,000 Shrek-4 (estimate)

Wow. I mentioned that there didn't quite seem to be the same buzz for the opening as there was for the last two. But this is really surprising to me.

MacGruber bombed huge: just $4.1M. It was nuts for them to debut it this week. The thing looks like an "off season" movie to roll out in Aug/Sep or perhaps Feb/Mar. Don't really know what they were thinking here.

John
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Robster2001



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PostPosted: Sun May 23, 2010 2:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

jdw wrote:

MacGruber bombed huge: just $4.1M. It was nuts for them to debut it this week. The thing looks like an "off season" movie to roll out in Aug/Sep or perhaps Feb/Mar. Don't really know what they were thinking here.


Massive egos?

Either that, or they thought it would fail at any point, so they just got it over with. Now they can go to DVD. :)
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jdw
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PostPosted: Wed May 26, 2010 2:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

First Mon-Tue for the movies

Monday
$11,512,320 Shrek-2
$9,632,139 Shrek-3
$5,705,388 Shrek-4

Tuesday
$8,023,299 Shrek-2
$6,538,084 Shrek-3
$4,688,230 Shrek-4

The drop from Mon-Tue isn't too bad, but it's way behind the last two:

$148,518,679 Shrek-2
$138,706,832 Shrek-3
$81,231,825 Shrek-4


Shrek-3 had $184M left in the tank at this point, and Shrek-4 is way behind the run-rate. $184M would leave Shre-4 well below $300M, and at the run rate it doesn't even look like it gets to $250M.

The one to watch is how it lines up in weekends against How to Train Your Dragon. Right now it's a big gap:

Through First Tue:
$81,231,825 Shrek-4
$53,349,384 HTTYD

But HTTYD had those very low drop rates all the way until last weekend:

Mojo: How to Train Your Dragon weekends

Shrek-4 is going to be ahead of it for a while, but if it looks like it's falling down to simply $200M level, it might be interesting. Big Memorial Day weekend for it: if Shrek-2 doesn't pull in good $$$, it will fall off the $250M range.

John
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Thu May 27, 2010 10:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Meanwhile, Iron Man 2 got to $255 million as of Tuesday.

$300 million is a lock, $400 million might be possible, as the second weekend was $26 million. It's going to be tough to reach that point, as it doesn't have the same legs the first one did.
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