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2010 Box Office Thread
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jdw
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PostPosted: Wed Jun 23, 2010 1:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

First Tuesday
$15,123,212 TS-3
$7,877,998 Rat
$7,601,082 Wall-E
$7,181,987 Nemo
$6,405,897 Up
$5,743,462 Cars

Right... this is going to be a freaking monster. It's going to do $400M, and if it has a huge second weekend it's time to start thinking about Shrek 2's animation record of $441M.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Wed Jun 23, 2010 3:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Through First Tuesday
$148,518,679 Shrek-2
$141,036,487 TS-3

Shrek's advantage: Opened on a Wed

It pulled in $21M on Wed-Thu vs $0 for TS which opened on a Fri.

TS3's advantage: Summer Weekdays

$30.6M for TS3 vs $19.5M for Shrek-2

That gap will widen as it was a big $11.5M Mon for Shrek down to $8M per day the rest of the week. TS was over $15M each day, and probably will hold well above $10M on Wed-Thu.

Sherk-2 had a record breaking Memorial Day ($23M which is still #5 all-time) in addition to a monster $72M second weekend. That weekend is really hard for Toy Story to top, and the Monday will bury TS. But it may finish this week ahead, and then start picking up ground again next Tue-Thu. It also has its own July 4 weekend coming up, and all these weekdays for the rest of the Summer.

I stick to $400M as being very close to a lock right now, and if it comes out of the Weekend reasonably close to Shrek-2, that will be a very interesting race to follow.

I don't think Twilight has $400M in it unless it gets rave reviews and buzz... akin to say TDK.

John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 25, 2010 5:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

A pair of $13M days on Wed and Thu for Toy Story. These were days when the prior Pixar summer releases were pulling in $5.3M to $6.7M a day, with the exception to Rat (4th) and Wall-E (day before a Friday 4th, making it essentially a "Friday night" box office wise). In other words, TS-3 is doubling every other comperably Pixar summer movie on these days. Up was at $6.1M and $6.2M.

Through first Thu after opening Weekend
$167,551,682 Toy Story 3
$164,735,354 Shrek-2

As mentioned above, Shrek-2 had a Wed opening, so it has two extra days in the tank. As also mention, it didn't have Summer Weekdays yet as it was a pre-Memorial Day release.

Shrek 2 will jump back ahead because this weekend is its Memorial Day weekend, and it was a freaking monster second weekend "plus".

But if it has a pretty typica Pixar-style second weekend, even falling behind Shrek 2 won't mean that it's fallen off $400M potential, nor even catching back up to Shrek 2. Still... $441M is a long ways off. $400M is a safer bet, and we'll see if it starts closing back in on Shrek 2.

I'm thinking Twilight 3 needs an all-time record opening to be in the game, or something along the lines of the holiday opening that Transformers 2 did.

John
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Tue Jun 29, 2010 9:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Toy Story 3 was tops at the box office for the second straight weekend. $59 million for the weekend, nearly $227 million total take.

Looking at Dark Knight's numbers from last year, TS3 isn't going to be the phenom TDK was. TDK made nearly $314 million after its second weekend, with $75 million for its second weekend, so TS3 won't be as big.

That being said, $400 million is within its reach. A lot depends on how well the new Twilight movie is received and how much it cuts into TS3's take.

Still, I'm thinking TS3 will get to $350 million.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 29, 2010 1:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think the comps for TS-3 remain Shrek-2 and Up:

Through 2nd Weekend
$236,905,717 Shrek-2
$226,889,351 TS-3
$137,210,701 Up

Shrek-2 had the much bigger 2nd weekend: $72M along with $23M on Memorial Day. But it dropped to $38M on it's 3rd weekend, which might be within reach of TS-3 if it has a more normal Pixar decline.

Shrek-2 had $204M left in the tank, while Up had a little under $156M left in the tank. That $156M takes TS-3 to $382M. TS-3 is still beating the heck out of Up: $4M more than it on this Monday, $15M more over the weekend. There are signs that it's declining at a faster pace than Up, but the gap is daily gap is so large that it's likely going to be quite some time before they reach the same daily level.

So I think $400M looks very reasonable. Shrek-2's $440M+ looks out of reach barring a huge weekend.

TDK was on a different level from the start with that record opening. Didn't ever think to make it a comp. :)

Phenoms come in all sorts of levels. In a sense, The Hangover last year was a phenom for that genre. It didn't open huge ($44M), but the buzz built and it just kept chugging along. The Blind Side was something of a Phenom: it's the #1 sports movie of all-time, and who saw that coming.

In contrast, Star Trek last year wasn't really a phenom. It was a bockbuster that did a little better than expected/hoped for, but not insanely huge. Similar to the Batman reboot. In turn, TDK justwas batshit. :)

If TS-3 is looking like a phenom. It's going to be the #2 animated movie of all-time, and will be jumping Nemo in the process. That's way up there.

John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Wed Jun 30, 2010 8:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mojo: 'Eclipse' Rises with Record Midnight Launch

$30M for the midnight launch. Twilight-2 pulled in $30M. $300M seems a fair bet. We'll see fairly quickly after the 4th if it has the legs to stay with TS-3.

John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 01, 2010 1:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

$68M for Twilight 3. Twilight 2 pulled in $72M on opening day, but that was a Friday.

Another $7M+ for Toy Story, pushing it past $250M. It's pulling in between $2.5M to $4.2M per day more than Up was at this point, and it will be $100M past the pace of Up as of today. Up at this point just crossed $150M on the same day out that TS crossed $250M. Up had $140M+ left in the tank. Still think $400M is within range, and the holiday weekend could knock a chunk out of the remaining distance.

John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 03, 2010 6:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

$10.46M estimate for TS-3 on Friday to open it's holiday weekend pushing its total to a shade under $270M.

It's a shade under $104M ahead of the pace of Up, which had $125M left in the tank. $125M would leave TS-3 just short of $400M, but the two things I've been pointing out:

* it's taking in more each day than Up so that that same day gap is increase.

This is a positive: by the end of the holiday weekend, it will be over $400M if you add what Up had left in the tank

* it's declining *faster* than Up.

This is a bit of a negative. At some point it's likely that Up will be taking in more per day than TS-3.

I don't think the second is going to be at a point where it will drag TS-3 below $400M pace, bit it may.

On the other hand, after getting hammered by Shrek-2's monster 2nd weekend last weekend and on Monday (Shrek-2's Memorial Day), TS-3 is right back on it's pace. It beat it comfortably Tue-Thu by about $2M a day, and is right on Shrek-3's third Friday. It should be today as well, though probably dipping on Sunday due to the 4th. But Monday should be a big day for it relative to Shrek-3's $3.5M pace. Shrek-2 was at $318M by Monday. I don't think TS-3 will be close to that. But it was $17.8M behind Shrek-2 through Friday, and may just get that down around $11M by the end of Monday. If it does, that's more evidence that it's headed to $400M even if it's not going to get to Shrek-2's $441M.

Twilight-3 isn't off the charts for Thu or Fri, with the huge opening on Wed. I think by the end of the weekend we'll be able to write it off as a challenger to the Summer Crown, though it may have a chance at $300M and possibly the #2 spot.

John

John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 07, 2010 4:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Through the same day:

Total
$321,821,215 Shrek-2
$307,822,780 TS-3
$195,019,750 Up

Daily Take
$5,939,482 TS-3
$3,978,138 Up
$3,756,252 Shrek-2

Left in the Tank
$119,405,032 Shrek-2
$97,984,414 Up

Either of those numbers gets TS-3 to $400M.

Still don't think TS-3 can bound ahead of Shrek 2's pace. It's nicely shaving off $2M a weekday given it's Summer Weekdays vs Shrek 2's still in school weekdays at this point. But it has a $23M weekend to match coming up. It's pretty hard to comp this past weekend given the oddity of how the 4th fell on a Sunday, and hard then to project a drop for TS-3. But it can't really bleed several million over a weekend while picking back up $6M to $8M on weekdays when it's $14M behind. You eventually reach a drop level where there aren't $2M margins on weekdays, and Shrek-2 is about to enter its own Summer Weekdays where it got some of those nice legs.

Still... TS-3 is "keeping close" which is a strong sign given the monster second weekend + Memorial Day of Shrek-2 putting it way in the hole. Keep it close and $400M becomes fairly easy.

Twilight 3 is $20M ahead of Twilight 2, but it's starting to give ground to Twilight 2. Tw-2 had a $43M second weekend, which is probably couldn't to be tough to match. It's big positive relative to Tw-2 is that it's all off days for kids for Tw-3, while Tw-2 next week drops huge to post Thanksgiving weekdays in the range of $2M per day down under $1M the following week. I'm thinking Tw-3 has a decent chance at $300M if it doesn't completely crater this weekend. Nothing should cut into it for a while, as Despicable Me is more aimed at TS-3 than Tw's niche.

John

John
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Thu Jul 15, 2010 9:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

TS3 is sitting at $345 million as of Tuesday's box office. Eclipse is at $244 million.

Karate Kid looks like it will be the surprise of the summer. It's at $165 million. It's not going to reach $200 million, but I will say I was surprised it has done as well as it has.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 15, 2010 10:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bit of a hard read on TS-3: not a good Sunday, a drop again on Mon below where last week projected to, then a rebound on Tuesday. It's margin for $400M is narrowing a bit, after looking closer to a $410M to $420M movie last Thursday. I was kind of waiting until seeing the Wed-Thu numbers to toss something up, though the weekend may be as important in closing as much of the $55M gap needed to get to $400M.

Karate Kid might get fairly close to $200M... probably in the $190M range? It should get to around $170M by the weekend. Still had enough juice to take in $800K on Tuesday. $190M is pretty amazing for that movie as I thought it would bomb.

Grown Ups is still chugging along. $2M+ weekdays still, just a -17.0% drop last weekend. It's $16M weekend wasn't juge, but another small drop into the low tens along with continuing to pull in million dollar weekdays next week... should get to $150M without much problem.

I'm surprised The Last Airbender made it to $100M+ so easy.

Despicable Me is raking in the weekday money: $15.7M on Mon-Tue combined. If it has a good weekend, it's got a good shot at $200M. Just needs to show some legs.

John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 19, 2010 12:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

$60M+ opening for Inception, which is a surprise to me.

Despicable Me was down 42% pullinging $32M+, up to $116M. Most of that 42% was on Friday (-53% from opening night), while the Sat-Sun were a real mild under 40%. If it has a light drop on the weekdays and a 40% drop next weekend to pull in $20M, it will have a good shot at $200M. It's ahead of How to Train Your Dragon fairly comfortably, but Dragon showed very strong legs kicking in its 3rd weekend. There isn't anything coming up until September that shoul cut into it's annimated audience, so it could do well.

The Sorcerer's Apprentice was a massive bomb.

Twilight 3 is down to $9M ahead of Tw-3, but I still think it's going to get to $300M. Tw-2 takes the weekends, but the summer weekdays still play well into Tw-3's hands. It also took less of a weekend hit this 3rd weekend, and that gap has closed to just $2M. Tw-2 has $40M in the tank at this point, and that will carry Tw-3 to $300M.

Toy Story 3's margin for $400M is getting a little thin. Up had $33M left in the tank, which would take TS-3 to $405M. But it's shedding box office a bit faster than Up did. This wasn't a bad weekend for it relative to Up: less of a drop. But it needs to avoid slipping behind Up on the Weekdays, which was very thin last week. I think it can get there.

John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 27, 2010 10:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Summer Box Office at the final full weekend of July:

$379,416,551 Toy Story 3
$310,840,824 Iron Man 2
$279,827,262 Twilight 3
$234,845,975 Shrek 4
$171,713,173 Kirate Kid
$161,289,905 Despicable Me
$142,883,424 Inception
$142,240,828 Grown Ups
$123,308,790 The Last Airbender
$105,054,745 Robin Hood

I don't think anything else currently in the theaters that was released in the summer season is getting to $100M unless Salt has some amazing legs. Sex in the City 2 is taking in too little per week to pull in another $5M. Date Night might get to $100M, but it was released in April before the summer season.

Looking at the others in a semi-random order...

$310,840,824 Iron Man 2

Took in just under $1M in the last full week and a little under a half million this past weekend. Not a lot in the tank left, and down under 400 theaters. But could get close to $315M. It feel behind various of the rates of Iron Man 1 in its 3rd week but it had a $33M advantage at that point. It took until the 9th weekend until Iron Man 1 made that $33M go away: 58th day of release. Iron Man 2 has about a $3.5M lead on the same day (through Sunday). My thought it that IM2 will end up just short of $315M.

$279,827,262 Twilight 3

It's about $12.5M ahead of the pace of TW2, which pulled in $296.6M. TW3 is hammering it on summer weekdays vs winter weekdays, but giving some of it back on the weekends. TW2 has it's Christmas and New Years weekdays coming up, and they'll hit right as TW3 is declining more. But TW3 is a safe bet to get that additional $20M+ to get over $300M. I don't think it has enough to catch Iron Man 2 though.

$234,845,975 Shrek 4

Not a lot more in the tank. Probably not getting to $240M unless it stays out forever. Pretty surprising, all set up by that weak $70M opening weekend. There just wasn't the buzz for this one.

$171,713,173 Kirate Kid

Took big hits the last two weeks with theater numbers dropping. Thought it had a chance at $200M with some legs, but $3.6M in the last full week and just over $1M this past weekend with another decent drop and a big drop in theaters... not going to happen. But this was one of the more surprising "hits" of the summer. This made some people a lot of money given the budget.

$161,289,905 Despicable Me

Still pulling in the $$$ with a bump in theaters this past weekend. Extremely small -27.8% drop on the third weekend still adding theaters. It's $22M behind Shrek 4's pace at this point, and even was behind the 3rd weekend take of Shrek 4. It would probably need another -27.8% type of a drop to mak one think it has a decent chance of catching Shrek 4. But $200M looks pretty easy at this point, and with even modest legs it should go by it pretty comfortable. Sort of this year's Kung Fu Panda: the animated movie that pulled in more than expected.

$142,240,828 Grown Ups

Pretty much plugging away with weekly drops under 40% and the drop this weekend was just -25%. It's getting a bit of a theater crunch, but it's doing better than a lot of movies released after it (TW-3, Predators, Airbender and probably Sorcerer's Apprentice by next weekend). It also pretty much has the niche to itself, so if theaters want to keep an "adult movie", it's kind of it. I wonder if it has enough to get to $175M. The tank doesn't look close to empty, so it might take something else in the genre to dump it.

$123,308,790 The Last Airbender

This will probably get someone else to overpay for another M Night movie. Still pulling in some money, so it's not dead yet.

$105,054,745 Robin Hood

Nice to see this get over $100M.


$379,416,551 Toy Story 3

Good weekend relative to Up's pace, so it looks like a 99.99% lock to get to $400M... really would take a total collapse to fail.

$142,883,424 Inception

Extremely hard one to predict. Just a -32.0% drop this past weekend. It's got some serious buzz going on now. $200M is a lock, but we'll have to see what the weekend looks like to guess just how far past it this goes. It didn't open huge, so while a -32.0% on a movie doing a $100M opening weekend would scream "phenom", this one was down to $42.7M which means it has a long way to go to get to $300M. It's almost halfway there (will get past $150M today on Tuesday), but it's taking in money at a lower rate than some others. In contrast, Iron Man 2 was at $211M after its second weekend, taking in $52M that 2nd weekend which was a "bad" -59% drop. When you pull in $128M opening weekend, even big drops still put massive $$$ into your totals.

On the other hand, if that buzz increases and we see an even flater drop this coming weekend for Inception, it could be a mini-phenom. There isn't anything in its genre for a while, instead the coming releases go after other movies on the list.

Toy Story 3 will be the king of the summer box office, which was pretty clear it's second weekend with the only slight doubt being how TW-3 played out.

John
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eron



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PostPosted: Tue Jul 27, 2010 4:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The "Movie of the Decade" buzz that Inception is getting is why it'll have legs.
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Jeremy Billones



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PostPosted: Wed Jul 28, 2010 8:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Which decade, the one ending or the one starting? :p
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