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2011 Box Office Thread
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jdw
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PostPosted: Mon May 30, 2011 3:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Monday estimated drop to just under $20M for Hangover, $137M total to date. Was thinking it would take in at least $22M to get over $140M. It will be interesting to see what the actuals are like.

Pirates had the big drop on Friday, but Sat-Sun weren't terrible from the opening weekend. Decent Monday, but it did $8M last Mon, so it wasn't a huge bump. Still, it's up to $160M+. $200M is a cake walk, and perhaps $250M isn't totally out of the range.

Panda is odd. Perhaps just picked a bad weekend, thinking the franchise was bigger than they thought it was. I wonder if it will even get to $200M after this. Will need some big legs.

Thor picked up more ground on Wolverine, which it seems like a lock to pass. Don't think it has quite the legs for $200M.

John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Wed Jun 01, 2011 4:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Big $7.6M Tuesday for Hangover, up to $142.6M overall.

Hangover 1 was doing excellent weekday numbers on it's first Tue-Thu:

$6,589,423 Tue
$6,655,228 Wed
$6,091,024 Thu

Hang-2 topped the Tuesday comfortably.

Here's where Hang-1 gets tough:

$32,794,387 2nd Weekend
$26,753,473 3rd Weekend

Wicked light drops.

The thing is...

Through 1st Tue:
$142,622,321 Hang-2
$59,227,850 Hang-1

That's an insane gap: $83M. I don't know how Hang-1 makes up that ground, even with it's great legs. I don't know how Hang-2 doesn't top the $277M that Hang-1 made. It just needs to double what it has in the tank.

I think Hang-2 is the first $300M movie of the summer.

John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 03, 2011 4:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hangover 2 vs 1 was doing weekday numbers on it's first Tue-Thu:

Tue: $7,585,079 vs $6,589,423
Wed: $6,293,188 vs $6,655,228
Thu: $5,511,451 vs $6,091,024

Starting to bleed a bit in those last two days.

To Date:

$154,426,960 Hang 2
$71,974,102 Hang 1

Hang-1's coming weekends:

$32,794,387 2nd Weekend
$26,753,473 3rd Weekend

It remains a massive lead, and it seems very unlikly the Hang 2 will drop below that $32M level.

John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 05, 2011 8:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

2nd Weekend
$32,794,387 Hang-1
$32,445,000 Hang-2

62% drop, which is pretty surprising given Hang-2 had a Thursday opening to lower the opening weekend total. I thought with that Thu opening that the drop would be closer to 50%. Not a sign of legs at all.

To Date:

$186,872,000 Hang 2
$104,768,489 Hang 1

It's unlikely the gap will ever be wider than it was back on Tuesday. Still, $80M to play with. It needs to keep that gap over $23M to $300M. Hang-1 starts pulling in the dough in the coming weekdays and weekends: it goes from the $105M to $183M by the end of the 4th weekend. Hang-2 is already past that, but $78M is a lot of cash in that period... but then it's worth noting that Hang-1 has almost $100M still left in the tank at that point. Major leagues in this era. It that lead drops from $82M to $40M in the next two weekends (which I think is extremely unlikely), then I'd stick a fork in Hang-2 getting to $300M.

Opening weekends
$54,471,475 X-1
$85,558,731 X-2
$102,750,665 X-3
$85,058,003 Wolverine
$56,000,000 First Class

That's pretty brutal, especially given this patern:

Second Weekend Drop
-56.9% X-1
-53.2% X-2
-66.9% X-3
-69.0% Wolverine
-??.?% First Class

This series has always had little in way of legs.

Honestly don't know why they didn't try to muscle themselves into the Lead Off Spot in the place of Thor. I'm guessing Marvel wanted to "launch" the Thor series, and felt that any X movie could fall out of bed and make $175M+.

Panda and Bridesmaids went past $100M. Under 50% drop for Panda, but don't know if it has the legs to get to $150M. Small drop for Bridesmaids.

Pirates will get to $200M next weekend, but doesn't look like a $250M movies. Over $600M world wide, so it still is a monster hit.

Fast Five when past $200M. Big drop for Thor, and it's losing theaters. It closed the gap to Wolverine on the same weekend to:

$170,843,712 Wolverine
$169,073,000 Thor

It made more money this weekend, but not a ton. Still looks like a pretty good lock to pass Wolverine, but doesn't look like it will get to $190M let alone $200M.

John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 06, 2011 6:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

jdw wrote:
2nd Weekend
$32,794,387 Hang-1
$32,445,000 Hang-2

62% drop, which is pretty surprising given Hang-2 had a Thursday opening to lower the opening weekend total. I thought with that Thu opening that the drop would be closer to 50%. Not a sign of legs at all.

To Date:

$186,872,000 Hang 2
$104,768,489 Hang 1


That second weekend ended up a bit worse:

$32,794,387 Hang-1
$31,381,234 Hang-2

-63.5%

To Date:

$185,808,194 Hang 2
$104,768,489 Hang 1

It's still a really big lead when it needs to finish just under $23M ahead to get to $300M. But 63.5% second weekend drops when (i) there was a Thursday to bleed off the weekend, and (ii) a Memorial Day Monday to bleed off as well...

Not good. I'd say it needs to drastically slow the bleeding down during the weekdays and next weekend to have a shot at $300M. If it takes another big drop (say 55% or more), then it might not even get to Hang-1's $277M.

John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 10, 2011 2:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hangover 2 vs 1 was doing weekday numbers on it's second set of Mon-Thu:

Mon: $3,247,199 vs $5,531,460
Tue: $3,259,072 vs $5,528,308
Wed: $2,904,243 vs $5,050,273
Thu: $2,841,424 vs $5,185,012

Major bleed. $9M in four weekdays after that $1.9M drop on Sunday.

To Date:

$198,060,132 Hang 2
$126,063,542 Hang 1

The peak lead was $83.4M, and it still was at $82.98M on Saturday. $7.6M in five days, the gap down to $72M now. Hang-2 needs to stay $22,677,497 ahead of Hang-1 to get to $300M.

Hang-1's coming weekends:

$26,753,473 3rd Weekend
$17,022,166 4th Weekend
$11,268,413 5th Weekend

The one to watch: $17M in this 3rd weekend for Hang-2 would be a -45.8% drop from last weekend. That's not terrible. But it would take Hang-2's third weekend down to the level of Hang-1's fourth weekend.

A drop over 55% would strike me as $300M being put out of reach.

John
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Mon Jun 13, 2011 4:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

$17.6 million for Hangover 2 in Weekend Three.

Super 8 was tops this weekend with $35.4 million.

X-Men First Class up to $98 million through two weekends.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 13, 2011 4:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

-43.7% drop, which isn't that bad. But it's 3rd was only a few 100K over Hang-1's 4th.

It did blow past $200M:

$215,727,461 Hang-2
$152,817,015 Hang-1

Down to a $63M lead, needing to stay $22,677,497 ahead to get to $300M.

It gave back $18M in 8 days. It can only give away another $40M. Mon-Sun coming up, Hang-1 did just over $30M in business. Hang-2 just has a Mon-Sun where it did just under $30M. Say a 50% drop, and there goes $15M of the $40M margin, with Hang-1 still having almost $100M left in the tank at that point.

I think we can safely say it's not making it to $300M. I think it will top Hang-1, but that will become interesting to watch.

Don't know what to make of Super 8's box office. At that level, even if it has legs, it's got serious issues with an upper level. It's hard to get to $200M these days with a $35M opening, especially at this point in the summer where there are so many big movies left in the tank to be released.

John

John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 16, 2011 1:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hang-2 vs Hang 1:

Mon: $1,884,398 vs $3,811,385
Tue: $2,073,465 vs $3,492,326
Wed: $1,631,707 vs $3,084,244

Another -$4.8M given back, overall gap down to $58M. A bleed rate of $1M a day, with Hang-1 making $2.4M to $3M each weekday *next week* and then $1.7M to $2M the weekdays the week after that. That's even before getting into the weekends (Hang-2 this past weekend made what Hang-1 made in the coming weekend)...

A million a weekday and probably $8M+ this coming weekend. It's going to be an interesting race to see if Hang-2 gets to Hang-1's $277M. $58M is a massive gap this far in, but could be really ineresting.

John
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Sat Jun 18, 2011 8:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Watched X-Men: First Class tonight. Saw it got mostly positive reviews at Rotten Tomatoes whereas Green Lantern was getting panned.

Really liked First Class... thought it was up there with the first two films, maybe a little better. I think Marvel made a mistake in having three of its franchises rolled out in films this summer. First Class probably would have done better business if Marvel hadn't rolled out Thor as well... and they still have Captain America to come.

No, I don't think First Class would have been like Iron Man, but it could have possibly been a $200 million franchise. It's probably headed to $150 million or so, but it will fall short of $200 million.

It's still a film worth seeing, though. More in a spoiler thread.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Mon Jun 20, 2011 10:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Green Lantern pulled in $53 million for its opening weekend. Definitely a disappointing number and, given the poor reviews it's receiving, I doubt it will have any legs.

Super 8 clocked in at $72.8 million but it didn't show any legs either. It wasn't as bad of a drop as other flicks, but it's not enough to get it very high. $200 million may be out of its reach.

X-Men First Class up to $119 million, but as I said previously, this is probably a $150 million franchise but it won't reach $200 million.

Hangover 2 reached $232 million. It might make it to $250 million but it won't be a $300 million franchise.

Cars 2 is on tap for release this weekend, then comes the next Transformers movie the following weekend. I suspect Transformers is going to have a monster opening as it comes out during the Fourth of July weekend. Seems like the kiddie demographic is what really pushes the film over the top. Then it's two weeks before the final Potter flick hits the big screen.

But I get the feeling the Transformers flick will be your summer box office crown winner, even if it pains me to say that. :P
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jdw
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 20, 2011 12:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Looks like it's down to Transformers, Potter or Cars.

Cars would need to open stronger than a normal Pixar (similar to how Toy Story 3 did), and have some repeat viewing ability. Not sure on that one.

Potter needs some Series Finale Bump, similar to Lord of the Rings III and X-III. That's possible... but I don't know how much of a bump that would be. None of the Potters have done $350M... or even $325M. It's a big leap up from the $295M to $301M that the last two have done to get to $350M.

Transformers looks like it can fall out of bed and have a big opening. But one wonders if it has some Twlight in it this time around: big opening, but fading off fast. I think we've all been surprised how some movies haven't done as massive as we would have thought in recent years: Pirates-3, Shrek-4, etc. At some point with Transformers it's going to move away from being a phenom (like 2 was) and into just being a Sequel Cash Cow, which is a lower level of box office. :)

I don't think Cap America is getting to $300M. Opening a week after Potter might be a mistake, though Potters always seem to have a drop after the massive opening weekend.

John
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Steve Yohe



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PostPosted: Tue Jun 21, 2011 4:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think the last (?) Potter will end up #1 world wide.--Yohe
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jdw
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PostPosted: Wed Jun 22, 2011 7:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Here's the leader:

$956.8M Pirates 4

Pirates 4 has a bit more in the tank. It still made $26M last weekend overseas, and $6.6M in the US. BoxOfficeMojo is predicting it will make it to $1B at this rate.

Last few Potters:

$954.5M Potter 7.1
$938.2M Potter 5
$934.0M Potter 6

Maybe reasonable to think that Potter 7.2 get over $1B.

What's interesting is how little Transformers 2 made overseas last time:

$402.1M US
$434.2M International
$836.3M Global

So maybe it's not in the race to get to $1B like the other two.

John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 24, 2011 9:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Forecast: How Much Mileage Will Pixar Get Out of 'Cars 2?'

Brandon at Mojo is going with a very light $59M opening for Cars 2. Yow.

John
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