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2011 Box Office Thread
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Steve Yohe



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
Posts: 3070
Location: Wonderful Montebello CA

PostPosted: Sat Jun 25, 2011 5:00 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

My grand daughters made me take them to see CARS 2 this afternoon. It's terrible. A total mess. And I loved the first one. Really bad. I wasn't saying too much because the kids seemed to like it...then the conversation turned to why the bad cars were trying to kill the McQueen car and no one could figure it out. Sucked. One of the worst of the year. ---Yohe
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Bob Morris



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
Posts: 2883
Location: New Mexico

PostPosted: Sun Jun 26, 2011 12:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Estimated opening weekend for Cars 2: $68 million.

The exact opening number won't be a round number, but the question is what the exact number will be compared to Up, which opened at $68,108,790.

But Cars 2 doesn't appear destined to become a phenom and the question remains as to whether it will have any legs. Up had legs and came close to $300 million. Ditto for Finding Nemo, which made more than $339 million after a $70 million opening weekend.

The first Cars made $244 million after a $60.1 million opening weekend. If Cars 2 has the legs of the first Cars, it will reach $250 million. If not, it will be a $200 million movie but may not reach $250 million.
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jdw
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Joined: 01 Sep 2005
Posts: 17128

PostPosted: Mon Jun 27, 2011 3:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Past weekend (5th for each movie):

$11,268,413 Hang-1
$5,574,179 Hang-2

Hang-1 has the following weekends coming up:

$9,933,238 6th
$8,177,272 7th
$6,461,370 8th
$5,194,475 9th

The to-date lead of Hang-2 dropped from $50 to $38.6M in the past week, nearly a quarter of it's lead. Hang-2 took in just over $10M in the week. Hang-1 has a $17.4M week starting today. It's hard to see it finishing above Hang-1. It is going to get to $250M as it needs just $7M now. But it doesn't look like it has the $33M+ in the tank to get to Hang-1.

I think all eye turn to Transformers and Potter now. :)

John
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Bob Morris



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
Posts: 2883
Location: New Mexico

PostPosted: Tue Jun 28, 2011 1:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Roger Ebert was not kind to the Transformers movie.

http://rogerebert.suntimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20110628/REVIEWS/110629981

Direct quote from his Facebook page: "Gone from my life: 154 minutes."
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Tue Jun 28, 2011 1:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Actual total for Cars 2 opening weekend: $66.1 million. It pulled in another $6.9 million Monday.

The first Cars pulled in $6.4 million on its first Monday after opening weekend and was at $66.5 million at that point.

The new Transformers movie will certainly eat into the box office for Cars 2... the question is how much.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 28, 2011 2:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Cars 2 looks like it will keep up the $200M streak, but I wonder if it will be a struggle like Rat.

John
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Thu Jun 30, 2011 10:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Transformers 3: $42.8 million in its first two days.

June 28: 2,700 theaters, $5.5 million
June 29: 4,011 theaters, $37.3 million

Thursday's number will tell the tale as to what mark the movie may ultimately hit, but it should certainly do a big weekend number. After that, it remains to be seen what happens.

Also interesting: In Mojo's July preview comes this quote:

Quote:
Look for Deathly Hallows Part 2 to make a serious run at breaking The Dark Knight's $158.4 million opening weekend record.


More of the preview here:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3193&p=.htm
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Jeremy Billones



Joined: 07 Aug 2006
Posts: 523
Location: Alexandria, VA

PostPosted: Thu Jun 30, 2011 10:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mojo's on crack. It's gonna have the same $75m open every summer Potter movie does. (It only opened to $120m for November openings where it had less competition.)
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jdw
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 30, 2011 11:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jeremy Billones wrote:
Mojo's on crack. It's gonna have the same $75m open every summer Potter movie does. (It only opened to $120m for November openings where it had less competition.)


Entirely different beasts: Potter 5 & 6 opened on Wed, eating up $62M and $80M respectively before getting to their "opening weekend":

Summer Potter Showdown


HP6 pulled in a $58M opening day on a Wed, very similar to the $61M that HP7.1 did on an opening Fri.

$158M might be crackville because Potter won't make the $47.7M and $43.6M that TDK made on Sat-Sun, but that $67M opening day is very much in play. Hell, Twilight 2 & 3 already topped that number.

$120M is very much in play: $70M/$25M/$25M. My guess is that it will do comfortably more than $25M on Saturday, which gives it some margin below $70M on Fri. But a $70M Friday means that $130M+ is very much in range.

John
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Bob Morris



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 30, 2011 2:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Another Transformers review, one Roger Ebert linked to on his FB page... and his remark was that he went way too easy in his (Ebert's) review.

Reading the review in questions really does put his remark into perspective:

http://filmfreakcentral.net/screenreviews/transformers3.htm
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jdw
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 30, 2011 3:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

jdw wrote:
The to-date lead of Hang-2 dropped from $50 to $38.6M in the past week, nearly a quarter of it's lead. Hang-2 took in just over $10M in the week. Hang-1 has a $17.4M week starting today. It's hard to see it finishing above Hang-1. It is going to get to $250M as it needs just $7M now. But it doesn't look like it has the $33M+ in the tank to get to Hang-1.


This is getting ugly:

Mon: $1,977,243 vs $643,488
Tue: $1,951,179 vs $653,298
Wed: $1,824,657 vs $429,042

That's $1.3M a day. That's $38.6M lead has dropped to $34.6M in a trio of weekdays.

It is getting to $250M, and my guess is that it gets there maybe this four day weekend... but $265M tops?

Not terrible at all. But probably lets them know that they need to do something different for #3 if they want it to work.

For Cars 1 vs Cars 2:

Mon: $6,407,907 vs $6,958,490
Tue: $5,743,462 vs $7,089,413
Wed: $5,737,331 vs $5,540,193

Cars 1 "caught up" on the daily rate on Wed, though they were basically in a dead heat on Sat-Sun. Cars 2's current "peak lead" was $7,912,532 ahead of Cars 1 on Tuesday.

Coming weekend for Cars 1:

$33,731,634 (-43.9%)

That -43.9% is actually good:

-38.3% Rat
-43.9% Cars 1
-46.2% TS3
-48.5% Wall-E

There is a release difference:

06/09/06 Cars 1
06/24/11 Cars 2

So Cars 2 does get to take advantage of the holiday earlier in it's run. Cars 1 did $4,060,577 on its coming Monday, and Cars 2 should top that and perhaps make up for other lost ground on the weekend. But on the flip, Cars 1 did $4M each day next Mon-Thu and one wonders if Cars 2 has those kind of legs.

Other interesting thing

$86,311,330 Wall-E
$85,723,603 Cars 2
$72,661,432 Rat

Wall-E just passed Cars 2's run rate yesterday. Rat was $19M behind as of Sunday and has cut that gap all the way down to $13M. A big chunk of that was it's 6/29 release date had it hitting the 4th of July already, so it spiked good weekday numbers. But... Rat at $206M was the only Pixar movie from TS-2 on foward to have a "fight" to get to $200M. And Rat did that by overcoming that week opening and have good legs relatively.

I'm thinking Cars 2 is a $200M movie, but it needs a good weekend/4th and probably holding good into the balance of next week to get more faith.

John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 01, 2011 2:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

There is hope. Transformers 2 vs 3 comps:

Wed: $62,016,476 vs $43,225,329 (includes Midnight showings)
Thu: $29,094,472 vs $21,455,000

$91M vs $64.7M so far, for a nice $26M drop.

Trans-2 had a $109M weekend in additon to that $91M head start. I think even including Monda which made it $123.8M for its first Fri-Mon, I don't think Trans-3 is going to pull in that much (i.e. it's take being $214.9M by the end of Monday). It's also hard to see this one having much by way of legs.

John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 01, 2011 2:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Cars 2 is staying reasonably close to Cars 1 for another day:

Cars 1 vs Cars 2
Thu: $5,315,440 vs $5,207,012

Cars 1 did the following on the coming Fri-Mon:

$28,586,395

That didn't have the 4th in it. That looked pretty doable for Cars 2, so it might push it's lead up higher than the current $7M. Still, it has those $4M+ weekdays next week to compete with, so at some point it should bleed back.

Wall-E and Rat finished up their strong 4th of July weeks with $8.4M & $7.9M hauls on their first Thu, so how they stand:

$94,686,825 Wall-E
$90,930,615 Cars 2
$83,323,649 Cars 1
$80,517,305 Rat

John
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Bob Morris



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 01, 2011 3:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Everything I've read said that Transformers 2 was a bad film... even Michael Bay said that was the case.

Based on the reviews of Transformers 3 I've read, though, Bay didn't get the message.

And yes, I'm a Transformers geek... but that doesn't stop me from calling something a bad film when I see it. :)
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jdw
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 01, 2011 3:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

:)

John
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