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2011 Box Office Thread
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Steve Yohe



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
Posts: 3070
Location: Wonderful Montebello CA

PostPosted: Sat Jul 02, 2011 12:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I kind of liked Transformers 3. The actors, the human ones, seemed to be having fun with it. How did they get permission to blow up Chicago like that? I think it's going to make a ton of money. Guess it will have to..if they're going to put Chicago back together again.

#2 was terrible. In 3 I kind of could tell who were good robots & who were bad robots.--Yohe
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 03, 2011 11:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Trans-1 vs Trans-2:
Fri: $36,740,666 vs $32,965,000
Sat: $40,205,083 vs $34,585,000
Sun: $32,020,558 vs $29,850,000
Mon: $14,853,940 vs


$200,077,255 vs $162,125,000

Close to $40M gap already, though $10M+ of that will be chopped off Monday.

It's not making $400M, and 350M is out if it can get $40M behind so quickly.

Major 60%+ drop in the second weekend for Cars-2. Less than $7M ahead of Rat, though some of that also will be chopped off on Monday. Rat had that very soft $47M opening, then had decent enough legs to grind our $200M. Dropping behind Rat's pace with weaker legs than it... not a good sign. This could be one to watch if Cars-2 slides quickly into a battle to get to $200M. I know they're raking in the toy money off it, but it would be a blow to Pixar's cha-ching at the box office if this is the first movie in more than a decade to fail to get to $200M.

John
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Steve Yohe



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PostPosted: Sun Jul 03, 2011 2:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Trans-3 is the type film that will kill overseas.--Yohe
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 03, 2011 3:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Looking at BoxOfficeMojo, the first 2 only did around $400M internationally: $390 for #1 and $434M #2.

In contrast:

$642.9 Pirates 2
$654.0 Pirates 3
$774.0 Pirates 4

$657.2 Potter 1
$616.7 Potter 2
$546.1 Potter 3
$605.9 Potter 4
$646.2 Potter 5
$632.0 Potter 6
$659.5 Potter 7.1

Transformers as a franchise isn't on that level. It will make "good" money overseas, but it's yet to break $500M over there when Pirates does $600M+ all the time (increasing internationally even as it declines in the US), and Potter is just a $600M machine internationally.

Pirates is just nuts:

$2,021.8M Avatar
$1,242.4M Titanic
$774.0M Pirates 4
$742.1M LOTR 3
$690.1M Alice
$690.1M Ice Age 3
$659.5M Potter 7.1
$657.2M Potter 1
$654.0M Pirates 3
$648.2M Toy Story 3
$646.2M Potter 5
$642.9M Pirates 2
$616.7M Potter 2
$632.0M Potter 6
$605.9M Potter 4
$603.6M 2012

#3 all-time internationally behind the two biggest movie phenoms of the post Star Wars/ET era. A $1B movie... lord knows how much Depp got for it in % points, and their ability to cut out Bloom and Knightly meant there was more money to go all around for the studio, creative and Depp. If anyone needs another payday, we'll likely see Pirates 5. :)

John
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Sun Jul 03, 2011 5:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Transformers (the overall franchise, not just the movies) has generally been popular in Japan but hasn't had the same level of appeal elsewhere. I don't think it will do that strong overseas, either.

Harry Potter, on the other hand, has done well worldwide, I believe, and I would expect the final film to be no different.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Tue Jul 05, 2011 8:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Final weekend estimates:

Transformers 3: $116.4 million
Cars 2: $32 million

Transformers 3 claimed the July 4 weekend record... but...

Six-day totals:
Transformers: $155.4 million
Transformers 2: $214.9 million
Transformers 3: $175.6 million

The third movie fell quite short of the second's numbers. The second film did a little more than $400 million, so no way does the third installment reach that number.

The first movie finished at $319.2 million, so the third movie is looking at closer to that amount. I'm going to guess Transformers 3 does $330 million. Whether that's enough to win the summer box office crown remains to be seen as we still have the final Harry Potter movie, plus who knows what Captain America will do... it's possible it could be the next Iron Man if it opens to strong reviews.

As for Cars 2, after 11 days...

Cars: $121 million
Cars 2: $123 million

But the second movie saw a larger dropoff from its second weekend to its first (60 percent) compared to the first one (44 percent). Cars 2 may fall short of $200 million given the dropoff, or if it reaches that mark, it will be a struggle.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 05, 2011 10:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bob Morris wrote:
Six-day totals:
Transformers: $155.4 million
Transformers 2: $214.9 million
Transformers 3: $175.6 million


Mojo had this at $181.1M at the moment through Monday. Did someone downgrade this somewhere?

Also, the Trans-1 number if through sunday. The Monday numbers per Mojo are:

Transformers: $165.3M
Transformers 2: $214.9M
Transformers 3: $181.1M

What's a little telling on Trans-3 is that its holiday Monday only made $4M more than Trans-2's non-holiday first Monday.

It's $33.8M behind (or worse if Bob's number is right), and is bleeding money every day except for Monday. Trans-2 had a big -61.2% drop its second weekend. If it matches that (and it could do worse), that would take it down to $37.8M (only bleeding $4M which isn't too bad), but it would have Potter the following week.

Looks pretty safe to say it will not top $350M. The question would be if it falls off enough to finish behind Trans-1. The lead is just under $16M at the moment. Trans-1 did a $37M second weekend. If Trans-3 takes an even greater than 61% drop, that will become an interesting chase.

On Cars-2, the pace looks like:

$131,701,577 Wall-E
$123,002,000 Cars-2
$121,115,860 Cars
$113,600,498 Rat

Cars-2 lost "only" $1M to Rat, but that really is only due to making $1.8M more on the holiday Monday compared to Rat having a non-holiday Monday. It dropped nearly $3M on Fri-Say, and had a draw on Sun... which was probably helped because it was more a "second Saturday" than a true Sunday: the following day wasn't a work day for parent.

Down to a $9.4M lead, bleeding Mon-Sat before that Sun blip, and the bleeding was getting large. Rat made $206,445,654, and it was a bit nearvous for a while if it was getting to $200M before it showed decent enoug legs. This is a bit trickier, especially if Tue-Thu shows another three days of $1M+ losses.

John
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Wed Jul 06, 2011 9:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

For the record, this was where I was pulling information from yesterday:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3199&p=.htm

The six-day total I referred to does not include the Tuesday previews, but only refers to the Wednesday through Monday numbers. The Tuesday previews were a very small number of theaters and I don't remember if the second movie had similar previews or not (I know the first one didn't). That is likely why the Mojo article, while making some reference to Tuesday's preview numbers, is mostly focusing on the Wednesday through Monday totals for the third movie.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 06, 2011 10:09 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Okay... got it. I tend to include the preview/midnight numbers on the assumption that "Those folks would have seen it Opening Day if not for the preview/midnight showings." Plus... it makes the math easier. :)

Looking at the actuals, it seems like the numbers for Cars-2 and Trans-3 were a few 100K lower than the estimates.

Going to be interesting to see the Tuesday numbers.

$13,510,024 Trans-2
$9,927,640 Trans

I'm guessing somewhere in between.

John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 07, 2011 3:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tue:
$13,510,024 Trans-2
$13,437,461 Trans-3
$9,927,640 Trans

Wed
$10,939,131 Trans-2
$10,332,429 Trans-3
$7,003,058 Trans

This actually isn't so bad for Trans-3. It's about $35M down to Trans-2, but now bleeding a ton. It's also put another $6M above the pace of Trans-1. It's now $24M up on Trans-1, and given those numbers there doesn't seem to be any reason to think it won't top the $37M that Trans-1 did on it's second weekend.

John
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Sun Jul 10, 2011 6:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Trans 3: $261 million through the weekend. It might make it to $350 million, depending on how much the Harry Potter movie cuts into its audience this coming weekend.

Hangover 2 passed $250 million but it's reached the end of its run.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 11, 2011 7:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Trans-3 did a bigger second weekend than Trans-2. That's a big wow. $350M is much more possible this weekend than last weekend. I'm pretty surprised.

Cars 2 bled more to the various summer Pixar movies. It's a little less than $6M ahead of Rat now. Makes $200M less likely.
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Steve Yohe



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PostPosted: Fri Jul 15, 2011 2:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Saw Potter at 3:00 in the AM on IMAX & the crowd was huge. They say it made 46 mil just from the mid-night showings. It will make over a billion & be #1 world wise in 2011. As a film it's kind of a mess, but the kids will think it's ok & want to see it more than once. It's an event film.--Yohe
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 16, 2011 9:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

A "holy shit" $92M opening day for Potter 7.2, destroying the all-time opening day mark by $20M:

http://boxofficemojo.com/alltime/days/?page=single&p=.htm

I'm not sold this means it's going to get to $400M in the US, but it still is going to have a monster opening.

John
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Steve Yohe



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PostPosted: Sat Jul 16, 2011 3:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It will go over the billion mark worldwide & might go after the #1 spot. It's in 3D & the fans seem to like the film.--Yohe
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