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2011 Box Office Thread
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 16, 2011 8:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I agree that it will do $1B world wide. But perhaps with a $350M/$700M split.

It has no chance of getting to the $2.782B ($760.5M/$2,021M) of Avatar, and won't get to the $1.843B ($600M/$1,242M) of Titanic.

#3 all-time world wide is Lord of the Rings 3: $1.119B ($377M/$742M). That's the one to keep an eye on.

No Potter movie has made $700M overseas:

$657.2 Potter 1
$616.7 Potter 2
$546.1 Potter 3
$605.9 Potter 4
$646.2 Potter 5
$632.0 Potter 6
$659.5 Potter 7.1

But Pirates 4 has cracked $787M overseas, so perhaps Potter 7.2 will get a similar jump:

$642.9 Pirates 2
$654.0 Pirates 3
$787.0 Pirates 4

But Avatar... it's on another planet, just like Titanic was before it. True phenoms.

John
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Steve Yohe



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PostPosted: Sun Jul 17, 2011 5:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

475 mil first weekend world wide.
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Bob Morris



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Location: New Mexico

PostPosted: Sun Jul 17, 2011 5:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jeremy Billones wrote:
Mojo's on crack. It's gonna have the same $75m open every summer Potter movie does. (It only opened to $120m for November openings where it had less competition.)


Estimated opening weekend for Harry Potter: $168.55 million.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3211&p=.htm

Mojo was most definitely not on crack... and Jeremy may pick his jaw up off the floor now. ;)

The final Harry Potter flick will be the highest grossing flick in the series, easily... how high it gets remains to be seen, but given this monster opening, one has to think it's going to make a serious run at $400 million.

The second weekend will tell whether or not this is our summer phenom.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 17, 2011 6:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Dark Knight vs Pirates 2 vs Potter 7.2
Fri: $67,165,092 vs $55,830,600 vs $92,100,000
Sat: $47,650,240 vs $44,443,225 vs $42,850,000
Sun: $43,596,151 vs $35,360,729 vs $33,600,000

Like all the Potter movies, it's massive fronloaded to Opening Night, not just Opening Weekend. It's already fallen far off the daily pace of TDK and even slipped behind Pirates 2 (which finished with a $423M box office in the US). The coming weekdays are going to be brutal relative to TDK:

The Dark Knight vs Pirates 2
Mon: $24,493,313 vs $18,140,271
Tue: $20,868,722 vs $15,731,919
Wed: $18,377,288 vs $14,154,725
Thu: $16,464,405 vs $12,358,033

It's $10M up on TDK, and that could be gone be the end of the weekdays, let alone than monster $75M second weekend that TDK did. Pirates 2 did a $62M second weekend.

Potter second weekends:

Summer
$34,910,393 Potter 3
$32,511,350 Potter 5
$29,462,187 Potter 6

Winter
$57,487,755 Potter 1
$54,727,138 Potter 4
$49,087,101 Potter 7.1
$42,227,263 Potter 2

I'm guessing it will probably top the $49M that Potter 7.1 did, but if it doesn't, we're talking really bad legs in the US.

I'm still pegging it in the $350M range or so in the US. I don't think any Potter movie has shown enough legs in the US to project this getting to $400M.

To take the #3 spot world wide all-time, it's going to need more than $750M overseas. Possible, though the Potter movies have typically done about 33% US and 67% Overseas.

On the Cars-2 front:

$182,732,709 Wall-E
$182,591,139 Cars
$165,519,955 Rat
$165,326,000 Cars-2

It's behind Rat, and bleeding badly. It's not going to get to $200M, which is pretty major for Pixar.

On the Transformers front:

Third Weekends:
$24,213,875 Trans-2
$21,250,000 Trans-3
$20,514,497 Trans-1

To-Date:
$339,221,800 Trans-2
$302,800,000 Trans-3
$262,978,000 Trans-1

Trans-2 got to $402M, so it has about $63M left in the tank. Trans-1 got to $319M, so it had about $57M left in the tank. Trans-3 had the biggest third weekend drop, but Pitters monster opening had a lot to do with that. Still, with a lot range of perhaps $50M left, it should get to $350M. Let's just say it's not a 100% lock right now that Potter 7.2 wins that crown. Transformers was at $162.6M through it's first Sunday. Odds probably slant towards Potter, but it might be closer than one thinks.

John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 19, 2011 12:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Dark Knight vs Pirates 2 vs Potter 7.2
Fri: $67,165,092 vs $55,830,600 vs $92,100,000
Sat: $47,650,240 vs $44,443,225 vs $42,850,000
Sun: $43,596,151 vs $35,360,729 vs $33,600,000
Mon: $24,493,313 vs $18,140,271 vs $18,043,081

Total:

$182,904,796 vs $153,774,825 vs $187,232,508

Coming up:

Tue: $20,868,722 vs $15,731,919
Wed: $18,377,288 vs $14,154,725
Thu: $16,464,405 vs $12,358,033

As I said, I don't see it getting out of the weekdays ahead of TDK. That's not the most horrendous thing: TDK did $533M in the US. :)

Pirates 2 did $423M. Grabbing a $33M lead on it gives it a $53M margin to $400M. But Pirates 2 had major modern legs, the likes of which no Potter movies has had. So that more than TDK is the one to keep an eye on. Still don't think this is a $400M movie, but Tue-Sun may turn me around on that. :)

John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 20, 2011 4:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Dark Knight vs Pirates 2 vs Potter 7.2
Fri: $67,165,092 vs $55,830,600 vs $91,071,119
Sat: $47,650,240 vs $44,443,225 vs $42,414,346
Sun: $43,596,151 vs $35,360,729 vs $35,703,962
Mon: $24,493,313 vs $18,140,271 vs $18,043,081
Tue: $20,868,722 vs $15,731,919 vs $15,388,166

Total:

$203,773,518 vs $169,506,744 vs $202,620,674

Coming up:

Wed: $18,377,288 vs $14,154,725
Thu: $16,464,405 vs $12,358,033

As expected, TDK caught and passed it fairly quick.

The lack of major bleed to Pirates-2 continues to be a positive: basically a push Sun-Tue with Pirates-2 picking up just $98K.

After this weekend the focus goes away from TDK and probably can look at Pirates-2 and Spidey-1, which had monster 2nd through 4th weekends well above the very good Pirates-2 weekends. Spidey-1 is $67M back of the pace of Potter 7.2, and has the huge disadvantage of Early May Weekdays vs Summer Weekdays that allow Potter 7.2 to kick the crap out of on the weekdays (at least in these early weeks) to off set losses on the weekends.

John
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Thu Jul 21, 2011 8:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Captain America hits the screens this weekend as well. Remains to be seen how much of Potter's audience it takes away.

Remains also to be seen if Captain America's is this summer's version of Iron Man. Rotten Tomatoes had a 69-percent rating for it thus far, but before I could check to see how many total reviews there were, I got an annoying Flash ad jumping out at me.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 21, 2011 3:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Dark Knight vs Pirates 2 vs Potter 7.2
Fri: $67,165,092 vs $55,830,600 vs $91,071,119
Sat: $47,650,240 vs $44,443,225 vs $42,414,346
Sun: $43,596,151 vs $35,360,729 vs $35,703,962
Mon: $24,493,313 vs $18,140,271 vs $18,043,081
Tue: $20,868,722 vs $15,731,919 vs $15,388,166
Wed: $18,377,288 vs $14,154,725 vs $12,267,217

Total:

$222,150,806 vs $183,661,469 vs $214,887,891

Coming up:

Thu: $16,464,405 vs $12,358,033

There's the first big crack against Pirates-2: all the way down below the Thursday take, not just dropping off Wed.

It still picked up another nealy $4M on Spidey, so it's up over $70M+ ahead of Spidey.

Trans-3 is still doing reasonable business. It's about $36.5M behind Trans-2's pace, but it's weekdays this week are pretty much spot on so there isn't heaving bleeding. $350M isn't out of the question.

Cars-2 is about $1.5M behind Rat, with a few 100K bleeding every weekday. At $206M for Rat, there isn't a ton of margin there to work with to get to $200M. I wonder if they might try to leave it out longer than normal to try to get there.

John
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Fri Jul 22, 2011 10:08 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rotten Tomatoes finally did away with that Flash ad... Captain America has 100 reviews thus far, 72 percent fresh.

Iron Man was 94 percent fresh out of 234 total reviews.

If that's any indication, Captain America may not be the surprise hit of the summer.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 22, 2011 2:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Dark Knight vs Pirates 2 vs Potter 7.2
Fri: $67,165,092 vs $55,830,600 vs $91,071,119
Sat: $47,650,240 vs $44,443,225 vs $42,414,346
Sun: $43,596,151 vs $35,360,729 vs $35,703,962
Mon: $24,493,313 vs $18,140,271 vs $18,043,081
Tue: $20,868,722 vs $15,731,919 vs $15,388,166
Wed: $18,377,288 vs $14,154,725 vs $12,267,217
Thu: $16,464,405 vs $12,358,033 vs $11,229,178

Total:

$238,615,211 vs $196,019,502 vs $226,117,069

Weekend:

$75,166,466 TDK
$71,417,527 Spidey
$62,345,264 Pirates-2

Brandon Gray's Forecast for Potter 7.2 is all the way down to $48M:

http://boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3216&p=.htm

The Forecast, July 22-24
1. Captain America: The First Avenger - $62 million
2. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 - $48 million

John
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Sat Jul 23, 2011 10:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Friday estimates:

Captain America: $25.7 million
Harry Potter 7.2: $14.6 million

Captain America will win the weekend box office crown. Looks like the Mojo projections will be, at the very least, close to being correct. It all depends on Saturday's numbers.

Potter 7.2 will reach $300 million and might get to $350 million, but I don't see $400 million in its future.
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Steve Yohe



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PostPosted: Sun Jul 24, 2011 3:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Potter has made 834 mil. 67% of the take is international.--Yohe
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 24, 2011 4:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think I predicted that back when you thought it might chase the all-time record: it would be a 350M/700M type of a movie.

John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 24, 2011 8:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Cap-Am vs Thor is going to be intersting to watch. Cap-Am opened at almost exactly the same weekend that Thor did. Thor is up to $180M. Big difference is that Thor had early May weekdays, while Cap-Am has Summer Weekdays.

Looking ahead, Thor had a rather exceptional -47.2% second weekend drop. That's going to be pretty tough for Cap-Am to top, unless it gets good word of mouth. Thor took a bigger hit the third weekend, and at that point was up to $145M and just $35M left in the tank: major summer releases coming hot and heavy by then.

Cap-Am has on the surface a lot less comp left: Cowboys & Aliens next week, then Planent of the Apes after that, then Conan. Thor had nothing of note the second week (Priest), then had Pirates-4, then Hangover 2 & Kung Fu Panda II the weekend after that... and every weekend after that pressure to give up screens.

So despite the non-monster opening, it's possible that Cap can jump ahead of Thor on the weekdays enough to off set the drop next weekend, then continue to pick off good (though probably not great) weekday numbers along with the lack of pressure to give up theaters to get to $200M.

Speaking of $200M movies, going into this weekend:

$252,160,717 Hang-2
$250,696,417 Hang-1

Hang-1 did a $5M+ weekend to get to $255.9M coming out. Hang-2 did $500K last weekend, so it would have fallen behind Hang-1's pace on Saturday.

It took a long time, but eventually chased it down in 9th weekend.

John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 24, 2011 9:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

One interesting or telling or curious thing about the box office this year:

2011 Animation
$176,445,000 Cars 2
$160,784,000 Panda 2
$142,578,000 Rio
$123,257,581 Ringo
$108,085,305 Hop
$99,967,670 Gnomeo and Juliet

2010 Animation
$415,004,880 Toy Story 3
$251,513,985 Despicable Me
$238,736,787 Shrek 4
$217,581,231 How to Train Your Dragon
$200,821,936 Tangled
$148,415,853 Megamind

There are some potential big/decent box office movies left:

07/29 The Smurfs
11/04 Puss in Boots
11/18 Happy Feet 2 (same weekend as Twilight)
11/23 Arthur Christmas
12/23 The Adventures of Tintin (Spielberg

But the drop this year has been massive.

I wonder how much of that is the economy? It's not like last year was a strong economy.

Sequels that didn't connect? While perhaps Cars 2 and Panda 2 didn't connect, Shrek last year didn't as well and it still did just under $240M even if that was way down from Shrek 3.

John
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