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2011 Box Office Thread
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Rian



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PostPosted: Sun Jul 31, 2011 5:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Both C&A and Smurfs will drop like rocks next week. I'd be interested in watching C&A on DVD just to see how bad it is (and only pay $1.00 for it).
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Wed Aug 03, 2011 4:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

C&A barely beat Smurfs for the crown this past weekend, but now Smurfs is outdrawing C&A.

I think something Mojo covered about C&A is proving correct: The promos made it look like a serious plot, when it's really supposed to be a flick that doesn't take itself seriously. That's how they promoted Snakes on a Plane, even if that flick didn't really draw a big number.

Potter 7.2 continues to bleed, so it's not getting to $400 million, but it is catching up to Transformers 3. Potter 7.2 surpassed $325 million while Transformers 3 is just barely below $340 million. The latter should get to $350 million, but the former is the better bet to win the summer box office crown if it can do decent business this coming weekend.

Captain America is now behind Thor's numbers. It may be there's just too many superhero movies... but, of course, The Dark Knight Rises should do a big number next year.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 03, 2011 8:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bob Morris wrote:
Potter 7.2 continues to bleed, so it's not getting to $400 million, but it is catching up to Transformers 3. Potter 7.2 surpassed $325 million while Transformers 3 is just barely below $340 million. The latter should get to $350 million, but the former is the better bet to win the summer box office crown if it can do decent business this coming weekend.


$5M behind the pace of Pirates-2, and dropping $1M each day on Mon & Tue. Spidey actually picked up more ground on Potter due to a strong Monday. Big Spidey weekend coming up, and it's the Memorial Day weekend for Spidey as well: $7.3M holiday Monday. It's a little under $33M back, but will cut a ton out of that lead on Fri-Mon.

Still... Potter 7.2 is doing quite well on the weekdays. It's beating up Potter 6 in a summer vs summer comp. Potter 6 had $40M left in the tank at this point, and since it's beating it up, you have to think Potter 7.2 has a good deal more than $40M left. I'm thinking $380M is pretty reasonable.


Quote:
Captain America is now behind Thor's numbers.


Lost the second weekend pretty badly, but thanks to summer weekdays, it's picking ground back up. It's $1M back, and could wipe that away on Wed-Thu. Thor also had a tough 3rd week drop since it's the week Pirates-4 came out. Cap-Am could end up very close to the $180M that Thor's done.

Thor and Cap-Am have "reasonable" budgets of $140M to $150M, compared to Green Lantern being $200M. I would guess that they'll be happy in the $175M box range.

John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 05, 2011 1:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Looking at Mojo's numbers to close out the week...

$130,182,045 Cap-Am
$129,906,155 Thor

Like talkd about above, Cap-Am picked up on the summer weekdays vs Thor's May weekdays. That will likely be the trend, so it's a matter of how hammered Cap-Am gets on the weekends:

Thor vs Cap-Am weekends
$65,723,338 vs $65,058,524
$34,703,035 vs $25,554,303
$15,455,304 vs

Thor had that good -47.2% drop the second weekend, then took the -55.5% drop the third weekend. Cap-Am needs to keep it's decline closer to the 50% range to not lose too much ground. Still think it's got a decent chance to be in that same $170M to $180M range as Thor.

Nothing terribly dramatic in Potter 7.2 box office to close out the week:

* $7M behind Pirates 2, getting cleaned about a $1M a day and will take a big hit this weekend ($20M for Pirates 2).

* about $33M ahead of Spidey, though Spidey just beat it on a weekday for the first time on Thur. Monster $36M Fri-Mon 4th weekend for Spidey that will slice off a ton of the gap as talked about

* still comfortably beating Potter 6 on a summer-to-summer Potter comp.

I'm still thinking $380Mish for Potter 7.2.

More than half of the $23M "margin" for $400M that it had in the comp with Pirates 2 (i.e. Pirates 2 made $423M so Potter 7.2 needs to stay within $23M to get to $400M) will be gone by Sunday. The Spidey race will really tighten up.

But in turn, the comp with Potter 6 show:

- $65.7M ahead of a movie that made $301M
- Potter 6 still had $37M left in the tank at this point
- Potter 7.2 just stretched the gap by $6.9M this week

So a conservative low end feels like $365M. But that's extremely conservative when it just popped nearly $7M above what Potter 6 did this week, clocking it every day. There are signs that it has more left in the tank than Potter 6. There are some daily % drops relative to prior week numbers that favor Potter 6, but where Potter 7.2 gets an advantage is that it's dropping from such higher numbers. In this period where it's beating Potter 6 every day it's going to be grabbing more money than it will bleed back later if Potter 6 starts picking it off on daily in 2-3 weeks.

John
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Sun Aug 07, 2011 4:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rise of the Planet of the Apes did $54 million in its opening weekend. Not surprising given the lack of competition.

Smurfs continues to outdraw Cowboys and Aliens. So much for the latter being a surprise hit.

Harry Potter 7.2 has closed the gap with Transformers 3... $342.8 million for the former versus $344.1 million for the latter. This week, Potter 7.2 should pass Transformers 3 to take the summer box office crown.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Wed Aug 10, 2011 10:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

As of Monday, Potter 7.2 passed Transformers 3. The latter should get to $350 million, perhaps to $360 million if it can hang around long enough in theaters.

The former looks to be a $375 million film at this point. Still, that's pretty impressive considering most of the other Potter films couldn't reach $300 million in the States.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 12, 2011 1:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hadn't looked at this in a while, but Trans-3 has finally fallen behind the daily take of Trans-1. Happened a bit last week (4 of 7 days, though just one of the 3 weekend days), but they were generally tight. A little clearer this week (6 of 7 days), though still small by the end of the week: just about $200K. Might allow us to put a "cap" on where Trans-3 is headed. Trans-1 had $14.7M left in the tank at this point, which would put Trans-3 almost exactly at the $360M range. Have to say that's really impressive given th bad taste from Trans-2, and the general not-so-hot box office of the summer.

To the same day on the super heros:

$150,359,303 Thor
$149,760,206 Cap-Am

Still really tight. Cap-Am lost about $1M during the full week, more on the weekend but closing it down to the $1M on the weekdays. The gap the week before was $7M, so this isn't bad. Thor is sitting at $180M. Cap-Am should get over $170M, and probably closer to $180M than to $170M... though maybe I'm being optimistic there. End of the summer may slow it down.

Looking at Mojo's Opener's Showdown Chart, and leaving off Sith:

All Time Openers

4th Weeks
$41,679,485 Spidey
$39,191,390 TDK
$30,818,775 Pirates 2
$21,121,733 Spidey-3
$19,444,927 Potter 7.2

Left In The Tank
$78,642,501 TDK
$64,200,242 Spidey
$54,617,854 Pirates 2
$25,766,248 Spidey-3

The telling one wouldbe the Spidey-3 legs and what it had in the tank. It's beaten Potter 7.2 every week except for the first. I probably should have noticed that earlier. Anothe $25M would take Potter 7.2 up to $375M.

On the other hand, Potter 7.2 continues to beat up Potter 6: $6M to $7M each of the last two weeks. Potter 6 had $23M left in the tank, and Potter 7.2 is doing a number on it.

I'm thinking that Spidey-3, with it's early May "leadoff" spot, got out of the theaters much quicker than a July release will, especially a Potter movie. So even getting beat now by Spidey-3 doesn't matter a ton. $375M looks to be low. If it just makes that $23M that Potter 6 had in the tank, that takes it to $373M... but it's kicking the crap out of Potte 6.

Looks like $380M+.

John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 19, 2011 1:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Looking at the end of the week:

Haven't talked about Cars 2 for a while.


$236,432,622 Cars
$215,286,444 Wall-E
$209,854,538 KF Panda
$197,896,216 Rat
$186,603,239 Cars 2

Rat had under $9M left in the tank, and Cars 2 lost $1.9M against it this week. Cars 2 isn't getting to $200M unless there's some miracle that I can't see. First time for Pixar since Bug's Life in 1998. Pretty jawdropping how poorly this did, and one wonders if it's going to make Pixar rethink things.

Cap-Am lost just under $4M this past week to Thor, pushing it overall to just over $4M back. Cap-Am will be $170M+, but won't get to Thor's $180M. Budget of $140M, Cap-Am is doing pretty poorly overseas relative to Thor (and other comic book movies). I'll take a WAG without having read any analysis: the title of the movie doesn't play well with people overseas.

Think I mentioned this last week that Transformers 3 had finally fallen off the weekly pace of Trans-1. Clearer this week: $2.9M vs $2.0M. Trans-1 had about $12M left in the tank at this point. Let's say Trans-3 has $10M. That gets to $358M. Possibly slowed just enough to keep from getting to $360M, but this going over $350M tends to indicate it's a cash cow. $1B worldwide... major cash cow.

Potter is still raking: $11M week. On the other hand:

$361,496,489 Potter 7.2
$360,117,121 Spidey
$321,280,163 Spidey 3

$20,610,988 Spidey
$11,410,548 Potter 7.2
$10,516,108 Spidey 3

Spidey has $43M left in the tank, and clearly Potter 7.2 doesn't have that. Spidey 3 had $15M left in the tank, and it looks like Potter 7.2 has that much at least.

It's still beating the hell out of Potter 6 in the Potter Summer come:

$11,410,548 Potter 7.2
$8,022,422 Potter 6

Potter 6 had $15M left in the tank at this point, and Potter 7.2 looks to have a good deal more than that. My guess is that Potter 6 stayed in the theaters longer than Spidey 3 given the later release schedules. So... more than $15M. That was a +$3M over Potter 6 just last week. So if I have to WAG, it's going to be over $380M rather than closer to $375M. Labor Day may help a bit as well. Potter 6 a nice Monday, and Potter 7.2 should top it.

Sort of an anticlimactic Summer. Nothing early chased $300M. Trans 3 opened so strong that it was clear that it was going $300M+. Potter 7.2 opened like such a monster that within a week it was clear it was going to top Trans 3. Nothing else has even made an interesting run.

It's a sign of how it's broken that I've spent so much time looking at Hangover 1 vs 2, Thor vs Cap-Am, Cars 2 not looking like a $200M movie. :)

John
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Tue Aug 23, 2011 10:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well, we can always look at what's set to come during the winter holiday season. :)

Happy Feet Two, Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Muppets, another Alvin and the Chipmunks movie, another Mission Impossible movie...

OK, maybe not that season. Nothing there looks like a big blockbuster. ;)

So let's try the summer of 2012...

May: The Avengers, Dark Shadows, Men in Black 3
June: Madagascar 3, Prometheus, Abraham Lincoln-Vampire Hunter, G.I. Joe 2, Brave
July: Amazing Spider-Man, new Ice Age movie, The Dark Knight Rises
August: The Bourne Legacy, Total Recall, The Expendables 2

All eyes will definitely be on TDK Rises, given the success of TDK.

The Spider-Man movie may be a $300 million contender. It will have a new cast and director, looks like it will take a different direction from the first three flicks.

I tossed the AL-VH movie up there as it's a book that has a cult following, but who knows how well that will translate to the box office. ;)

Brave is the next Pixar flick. I suspect Pixar will be fighting Disney hard to avoid any sequels in the future, particularly when they try to take a supporting character and make him the main attraction as they did with Cars 2.

Avengers will probably end up like Thor and Captain America unless it gets an Iron Man buzz. But it does have Joss Whedon directing, so who knows.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 23, 2011 10:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

If Brave is up to normal Pixar quality, it will probably be a good sized hit. Lead is a girl, and Pixar has never really tapped to that well. Probably enough there to keep the boys happy... if it's good. I have a little concern since the movie was taken away from the original creator/director pretty late in the process. On the other hand, Pixar did the same thing with Ratatouille, bringing in Brad Bird. Here they handed it to Mike Andrews, who has been at Pixar a while, but not directed a big picture.

Girly animated films haven't done big business since Beauty & the Beast. You'd think if anyone can pull it off, it's Pixar. If it's up to the usual standards, it's got a shot at $300M.

Twilight in the Fall/Winter season will be a blockbuster. $296M & $300M on the last two, with monster openings. Not sure what else is the big hit.

John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 24, 2011 5:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Both Bob and I forgot to mention the opening weekend for Conan:

$10,021,215 in 3,015 theaters for a giant, massive bomb.

Screenwriter:

‘Conan The Barbarian’ Scripter Answers “What’s It Like To Flop At The Box Office?” And Then Answers Some More

Make sure to skip the Update which as at the top of the article. Go to the initial item just below it, then come up to read the update. :)

John
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Steve Yohe



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PostPosted: Thu Sep 01, 2011 1:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm so happy that the Conan movie bombed. Maybe now, no one will want to make another one.--Yohe
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jdw
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 06, 2011 2:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Summer Box office is sort of over with the holiday weekend. The $100M movies through Monday:

$375,552,093 Potter 7.2
$350,500,012 Transformers 3
$254,416,436 Hangover 2
$240,794,584 Pirates 4
$189,256,895 Cars 2
$181,030,624 Thor
$172,272,760 Captain America
$168,517,430 Bridesmaids
$164,827,049 Kung Fu Panda 2
$162,550,178 Rise of the Planet of the Apes
$146,300,000 X-Men: First Class
$133,676,705 The Smurfs
$126,529,509 Super 8
$124,272,124 The Help
$116,313,419 Green Lantern
$115,035,541 Horrible Bosses

A couple under that level that probably will get there:

$98,859,543 Bad Teacher
$96,881,690 Cowboys & Aliens

Cowboys & Aliens pulled in $2.5M on the holiday weekend, so that's pretty much a lock. Bad Teacher pulled in $500K in a big boost in theaters. I wonder how many of those theaters fall off next week, or if they just give it a bit of a push to get over $100M.

The Help and Apes are far from being done at the box office. In fact, a lot of the movies are stull pulling in some cash so they'll go higher. Those just happen to be the two that look to have the most legs.

Potter 7.2 made another $3.4M, so it seems headed over the $380M+ level in a couple of weeks.

Trans-3 finally got past $350M on a $740K weekend. Not a ton of steam left, but getting to $350M is pretty impressive.

Cap-Am is plugging away. $175M looks like a lock, but $180M doesn't. Overseas continues to be a shade under US for it, which is pretty poor for these things. Gave my thoughts on a possible reason earlier in the thread.

Hang-2 didn't get to Hang-1's level, and I tend to think that's a reflection on the relative quality of the movies. I think this is a movie people wanted to see, but the quality killed the repeate business and word-of-mouth buzz that the first had.

Pirates 4 was less a monster here in the US that the prior ones were, but a nutty $800M overseas. My guess is that they'll keep making these as long as Depp wants to.


Cars 2 had a massive increase of 1800 theaters for the weekend, and I even heard some radio ads for it. Those theaters will likely vannish fast as well... perhaps enough to get it over $190M before it's pulled from the theaters.

I suspect that Bridesmaids is the "sleeper" of the summer?

Panda 2 joins Cars-2 as an animiated disappointment. The Smurfs doing business seems to indicate that it's not *animiation* that's dead. It's going to end up over $140M+, and I'm a little surprised it's gone that high.

Planet of the Apes is probably the action sleeper of the summer.

X-Men looks like it's a declining franchise, but they do have a Wolverine edition coming up soon that probably will top this.

Super 8 wasn't a monster sleeper hit, but is was a pretty reasonable budget ($50M allegedly), did similar numbers overseas, so that $240M worldwide might not be too bad.

The Help is a late summer sleeper.

Green Lantern might have been better off in a non-Summer / non-Winter slot.

John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Mon Sep 26, 2011 2:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's kind of funny to see Lion King come back and win two weeks at the box office.

Some interesting things:

$61,475,402 Lion King 3D

That's allowed it to:

$441,226,247 Shrek 2
$415,004,880 Toy Story 3
$390,017,178 Lion King
$339,714,978 Finding Nemo

It did nearly $22M this weekend, after $30M last weekend. It's clearly getting to $400M. It has a blu-ray release next week, so I'm not sure if it will be in the theaters long enough to get to Toy Story. Perhaps.

What's interesting is that Nemo came out on Blu-ray last year without a re-release. I wonder if Disney is kicking themselves in the ass for not rolling out a re-release. Then agan, the TS/TS-2 re-release two years ago only pulled in $30M.

John
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Steve Yohe



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PostPosted: Mon Sep 26, 2011 2:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lion King was only supposed to be in theaters two weeks. You think it will be pulled while still hot & in first place.--Yohe
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