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Box Office Thread 2012
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Bob Morris



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
Posts: 2883
Location: New Mexico

PostPosted: Tue Jul 24, 2012 1:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Weekend numbers are finally in. Mojo has been downplaying the box office tallies, for obvious reasons.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=weekend&id=batmanvs.htm

TDKR didn't set the new weekend box office record but it did slightly outdraw TDK for its opening weekend ($160 million vs. $158 million).

But then comes the Monday box office:

TDK - $24.4 million
TDKR - $19.3 million

So TDKR is already falling behind TDK's pace -- which means it's not going to catch Avengers and it's not likely to surpass TDK.

TDKR looks like a $400 million movie right now, assuming its second weekend numbers don't drop too much. The good thing for TDKR is there isn't much in the way of competition for its second weekend, so it should be able to keep the weekend box office crown.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 24, 2012 1:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I pretty much agree: looks like a $400M+ movie, will do big business on the second weekend, but will fall off TDK's pace quickly. There isn't a lot of margin in TDK's pace to fall behind this quickly and still get to $500M.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 24, 2012 10:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Some deeper box office looks...

Ice Age 4 is $21M+ down to Ice Age 3, and getting beat up every day. Big 56% drop on the weekend compared to a 34% for Ice Age 3. It will cruise past $100M either Thursday or Friday, but $150M might be tough. Ice-3 got to $196M, so Ice-4 has burned through 45% of the margin already.

Monster 69% drop for Spidey, which is brutal. It lost $10M to the pace of Transformers 1 on the weekend alone. It's just getting the crap kicked out of it by that movie: $35M down to a movie that mae $319M, so $300M is long gone. It's at $230M, so $250M is a lock... but not a ton past that unless it slows quickly.

Ted finally had a sharp drop of 55%, though it was another $10M. Hangover caught up to it this weekend. It had a relative good full week relative to Hangover last week (only dropping $6M), but Batman took a big bite out of it. Still comfortably going to fly by $200, and perhaps get to $220M.

First weekend loss to Wal-E for Brave, but just $400K. Brave's 46% drop was on par for Wal-E's drop the *prior* weekend, which is the fair comp: that was the weekend TDK opened, while this was the one TDKR opened. Wal-E had $28M left in the tank, which would take Brave over $230M. Not bad, but not a phenom.

Big drop for Mad-3 as it lost almost half its theaters. First weekend it lost to Mad-2, about $200K. It's going to fall a bit off Mad-2's pace for a stretch because Mad-2 is entering its Christmas vacation period. Still, it's $35M ahead of it's pace. Maybe $215M rather than $220M.

Magic Mike went by $100M over the weekend. Given the budget, this would be a phenom. :)

Avengers passed $615M over the weekend. TDK has $8M left in the tank at this point, but it got there by staying out a hell of a long time, and spiked up in November. That's not going to happen with Avengers. But does Avengers have enough to get to $620M? Hmmmm....
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Steve Yohe



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PostPosted: Wed Jul 25, 2012 2:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

TDKR isn't a fun movie to watch & that doesn't promote reviewing. A big negative if your going for records.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 25, 2012 2:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

TDKR dropped another $3M to the pace of TDK on Tue, so chances of getting to $500M are fading. TDK's second weekend was $75M, a -52.5% drop. It's possible that TDKR could top that, perhaps with TDKR's opening weekend held down a little due to the shootings. But TDK had legs where repeat viewing were important, and I think a lot of that revolved around Joker.

John
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Fri Jul 27, 2012 10:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mojo doesn't have a weekend preview up, but The Watch (a comedy) and Step Up: Revolution (a musical) are coming out this weekend.

Neither one is going to beat out Dark Knight Rises for the weekend box office crown.

But with that being said, here are seven-day totals:

Dark Knight: $238.6 million
Dark Knight Rises: $224.8 million

TDKR will need to surpass TDK by a pretty large margin to have a shot at catching it.

TDK pulled in $75.1 million on its second weekend, a 52 percent drop from its opening weekend. A similar drop puts TDKR around $77 million or so and would get it past $300 million.

But the only day TDKR has beaten TDK thus was its Friday number. Ever since then, it's been losing to TDK.

I'm guessing TDKR does about $70 million this weekend. It should do a pretty good number, given the lack of competition, and doing $70 million would put it past $300 million... but it would still put it behind TDK's pace.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 27, 2012 10:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's not catching TDK. Even more, it's not getting to $500M unless it has a monster second weekend. It "won" Friday by $8.5M, but it's lost each day since then by an average of $3.7M. TDK had $33M over margin above $500M. You can't be losing $3.7M a *day* to TDK for very long and still get to $500M. TDKR has not only blown the $8.5M Opening Day lead, but drop nearly $14M behind the pace. That's a total of $22.3M dropped in 6 days.

It might "win" this weekend if the Opening was slowed down due to the shootings. But the weekday numbers haven't indicated that people who skipped the weekend went to it on Mon-Thu.

It's just hard to see this have the legs of TDK due to the rewatchability of Joker vs rewatchability of this.

It's going to make over $400M, so it can't be that disappointing.

John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 29, 2012 9:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Weekend estimate of $64M for TDKR, compared to $75M for TDK. Another $11M dropped, now $24M down. It was $8M up after Opening Day, and has lost $32M in 9 days.

$500M is gone. I think the question now is whether it will drop off the pace to the point that it doesn't get to $450M.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 01, 2012 1:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Some quick hits...

Spidey is down $43M to the pace of Tansformers 1, which ended up at $319M. It's losing every day, dropped $13M last week, and $5M already this week... so to say that Trans-1 had $31M left in the tank and that would take Spidey up to $275M is an overestimate. That said, it's up to $244M and still taking in $1M+ a day. It should get to $260M.

TDKR is $30M behind TDK's pace, so the margin to $500M will be gone Thu or Fri.

Ice Age 4 is $38M behind the pace of Ice-3. If it matches Ice-3's pace from here on out, it gets to $158M. $150M could be a stretch, but Ice-3 doesn't have a great week coming up to comp with. Perhaps Ice-4 can make up ground.

Ted at $195M and will get to $200M sometime over the weekend. It's drops have been amazing: even better % than Hangover this past weekend, and it's Mon-Tue is in the same range. It's taking in a good amount less a day than Hangover, and now is $13M back. Hangover had and amazing $68M+ left in the tank at this point. I don't think Ted has $50M left in the tank if it keeps this slow pace of decline... but $230M / $235M might be possible depending on how late it stays out. Ted's actually making about what Spidey is making each day at this point. Yow.

Brave is right around what Wal-E was pulling in on a daily basis. $18M left in the tank for Wal-E at this point, which would take Brave to $237M. That doesn't seem unreasonable.

Mad-3 continues to give back a bit to Mad-2 due to Mad-2's holiday run. Tuesday was Mad-2's New Year's Eve, and the holiday run would go for 5 more days due to how the holidays lined up. It fell completely off the cliff after that:

Mon: $64,575
Tue: $33,900
Wed: $31,160
Thu: $29,746

Mad-3 is still taking in quite a bit more than that, so it's likely to make back all it's giving away here. If it matches Mad-2's pace, it gets to $214M. Suspect it's going to be higher than that: it's at $209.9 right now.

John
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Wed Aug 01, 2012 1:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Since we've been keeping tabs on Avengers, Mojo isn't listing its numbers on the daily box office any longer, so its initial run is over -- and at $615 million.

Nothing on Mojo about a director's cut going to theaters, although it's possible they could save such a release for the Thanksgiving or Christmas holiday, perhaps thinking it would help promote the initial DVD release.

Regardless, $615 million is an impressive number. Add in TDKR likely getting past $400 million and multiple $200 million-plus films this summer, then toss in Hunger Games and it's been a pretty amazing year for the box office so far.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 01, 2012 1:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Worth noting that The Watch is a complete bomb:

$12,750,297 Opening weekend

Stiller, much to my surprise, doesn't have a ton of things that bomb this bad:

$88,097,164 Along Came Polly (1/16/04)
$88,237,754 Starsky and Hutch (3/5/04)
$13,562,325 Envy (4/30/04)
$114,326,736 DodgeBall (6/18/04)
$279,261,160 Meet the Fockers (12/22/04)
$250,863,268 Night at the Museum (12/22/06)
$36,787,257 The Heartbreak Kid (10/5/07)
$110,515,313 Tropic Thunder (8/13/08)
$177,243,721 Night at the Museum 2 (5/22/09)
$148,438,600 Little Fockers (12/22/10)
$78,046,570 Tower Heist (11/4/11)

Starsky and Hutch wasn't a hit since it wasn't low budget, but it still did some business.

Anyway, the bombs were Envy with Jack Black and The Heartbreak Kid. With both he bounced back. 2004 was overloaded with Still movies, but the last one was his biggest hit. It's likely that when THBK was released that Museum 2 and Fockers (3 in the series) were already in the pipeline of development. He also lucked into Downey coming off of Iron Man.

His next big 2 are Walter Mitty and Zoolander 2. The original Zoolander made $45M, so it's not as big of a hit as folks might think. Walter Mitty is one that could be a hit or a bomb... and Stiller is directing it.

One wonders if we've got a bit of a turning point year for Stiller and Sandler in terms of being consistent "safe" box office. Suspect Stiller can fall back on another Fockers and Museum for safe box office. Sandler has Grown Ups 2 coming up.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Wed Aug 01, 2012 1:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

A few upcoming releases worth noting:

* Finding Nemo will be released in a 3-D version this September. The question to ask is if the 3-D version can do well enough to get Nemo's lifetime box office to $400 million.

* The next Twilight film comes out in mid-November. Given that's its the second part of the third installment, it could have a pretty strong opening. The first part did $281 million. I could see the second part reaching $300 million if it follows the trend that Harry Potter DH did, with the first part having a good showing, but the second part doing even better overall thanks to a strong opening.

* I'd bring up The Hobbit, but I know how John feels about Peter Jackson. ;)

* Monsters Inc. will get a 3-D release during the Christmas holiday. I can easily see it getting past $300 lifetime box office.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 01, 2012 2:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bob Morris wrote:
A few upcoming releases worth noting:

* Finding Nemo will be released in a 3-D version this September. The question to ask is if the 3-D version can do well enough to get Nemo's lifetime box office to $400 million.


Here's Mojo's chart on 3-D re-release:

3D Re-Releases

The relevant ones:

$30,702,446 TS/TS-2 (10/02/09)
$94,242,001 Lion King (9/16/11)
$47,617,067 Beauty and the Beast (1/13/12)

The TS/TS-2 re-release came out *before* Avatar, so maybe it's not a good comp.

B&B may have come out too soon after Christmas... perhaps too soon after Lion King... who knows. Lion King's numbers were jaw dropping at the time.

Nemo needs just under $61M to get there? Might do it. Will be very interesting to see.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Sat Aug 04, 2012 4:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Even though TDKR isn't going to catch Avengers, it's going to keep winning weekend box offices.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/

TDKR: $10.4 million
Total Recall: $9.2 million
Wimpy Kid 3: $5.8 million

Total Recall has a $125 million budget, but it will be hard pressed to get past $100 million. The Diary movie is a low-budget flick at $25 million, so it didn't have to much on its opening weekend to at least do a respectable number -- but with that said, it's going to come in behind the first two, so it's a sign the series is losing steam.

TDKR might make enough this weekend to pass $350 million, so it should get to $400 million without much trouble. Probably could get to $425 million, but I don't know if it can get more than that.
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Bob Morris



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Location: New Mexico

PostPosted: Sun Aug 05, 2012 7:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mojo's weekend estimates:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/

Total Recall will be filed under the "bomb" category. DWK3's low budget will keep that from being a bomb but it's not going to come close to what the first two DWK films did.

TDKR has fluctuated in terms of how its daily box office has compared to TDK -- there are days in which the numbers are close and days in which the gap is a bit wider.

Ted passed $200 million this weekend and the new Spidey passed $250 million.
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