The OtherArena

[jdw]

Ebert: Dark Shadows

What Ebert is talking about might not bode well for it getting to $200M. :)

John

[Rian]

It doesn't look to be a hit period.

[jdw]

Again, neither did Alice In Wonderland. That one ended up making $1B worldwide, just the 7th movie to get there. That is my *only* point on the hit potential of this: Burton+Depp have gotten money out of movies that just didn't look like hits.

John

[Bob Morris]

Meanwhile, Avengers surpassed $250 million Wednesday, getting there faster than Dark Knight did.

If this pace keeps up, Dark Knight Rises will need to be a bigger phenom that TDK was to have any chance at the summer box office crown.

[jdw]

It got there faster than TDK, but it was bleeding money Mon-Wed, and will again on Thu:

$24,493,313 vs $18,898,999
$20,868,722 vs $17,677,190
$18,377,288 vs $13,612,910

$49,027,225 Weekend lead
$35,477,001 Wednesday lead

Will probably be around $30M after Thursday,

The one to watch is TDK's 2nd weekend:

$75,166,466

I think Avengers will top that. Then it's back to TDK getting those summer weekday numbers.

Still don't think it gets to TDK's number. But...

It's pretty clearly looking like a $450M movie unless there's a massive drop this weekend, and a good weekend means $500M is very possible.

Is TDKR a $500M movie?

I don't think so without The Joker or a similar drawing heel. That's going to be the key: how well the heel(s) play.

John

[jdw]

Mojo Forecast: Depp, Burton Open in 'Shadow' of 'Avengers'

[Bob Morris]

As of Friday, Dark Shadows is 43 percent (rotten) on Rotten Tomatoes.

That's not gonna be enough to dethrone Avengers from the weekend box office crown.

[Bob Morris]

Box Office Mojo is estimating a $100 million second weekend for Avengers. The site estimated $29.1 million for Friday's box office.

If it holds up, we have our summer phenom and the winner of the summer box office crown already in place. I just can't see TDK Rises getting to such numbers unless it gets a strong buzz and people are won over by the featured villains.

[jdw]

Their estimate puts it back $60 up on TDK. Since TDK went $33M over $500M, it's pretty safe to think that a $93M margin is plenty to work with to get Avengers up to $500M. TDK has a $43M weekend next week, and of course the summer weekdays... so it might make a dent in the $60M lead. But probably not close to enough to make it look like Avengers won't get to $500M.

TDK is being marketed as the "final" of the "trilogy", and that usually (though not always) spikes box office. The problem here is the last one had a spiked the box office already that it's a bit like Pirates 2 vs Pirates 3: a number very hard to top.

Don't know if I'd go so far as to say that the race is over, but Avengers is setting out a number that will be really hard to top.

John

[Bob Morris]

Avengers second weekend: $103 million.

I think it's safe to say this will be a $500 million franchise and that it's going to pass The Dark Knight. $550 million is not out of the question, but I don't know if it will get any higher than that.

Dark Shadows opened at just $28 million. While certainly a number associated with a bomb, it also went up against the phenom that is Avengers.

I'm calling it right now: Avengers will win the weekend box office crown for the third week in a row. I can't see Battleship as a serious challenger.

[jdw]

I don't see it either... but it's being sold more as Transformers than Battleship. :)

John

[Bob Morris]

You know my opinion of Transformers. :P

Besides, there is no Optimus Prime to be the draw. :)

[jdw]

$4,505,362 Hunger Games (-19.4%)
$2,472,601 Potter 7.2 (-3.6%)

That's a flukey small drop for Potter 7.2 since it was Labor Day. It also pulled in $928K on it's Monday, which let it "pick up" $500K on Hunger Games. Not terribly relevant as it was Potter's last big gasp. Through Monday:

$387,405,528 Hunger Games
$375,552,093 Potter 7.2

Monday-to-Monday, Hunger Games was only down -6.2%. That weekend drop of 19% is pretty damn good as well. Potter 7.2 had $5.5M left in the tank at this point. Hunger Games continues to clubber it. #4 this weekend, #4 on Monday. Still in 2500 theaters, though there are three 3000+ movies opening on Wed-Fri, so that will eat a bit into it. I'm really confident that they'll leave it out long enough to get to $400M, and that Memorial Day will probably put it pretty close.

John

[Bob Morris]

Avengers will past $400 million with tonight's box office -- not by a large sum, mind you, but it's doing enough numbers during the week to push past that mark.

Comparison with Dark Knight and Spiderman:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=daily&id=topsuperhero.htm

Avengers looks more like a film that will catch Dark Knight, although that's as far as it's likely to get. Avatar and Titanic not only had stronger legs, they both did better business in their second weekends than their first. Those two were the epitome of a phenom.

But I think it's safe to say Avengers will take the third spot of all-time grossing films in the United States.

[Bob Morris]

Ebert on Battleship:

http://rogerebert.suntimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20120516/REVIEWS/120519990

Not exactly a glowing review, but he liked it better than Transformers, if that means anything. ;)