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Box Office Thread 2012
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jdw
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PostPosted: Fri May 18, 2012 1:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mojo's projections and analysis:

http://boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3444&p=.htm

Forecast (May 18-20):
1. The Avengers - $53.2 million (-48%)
2. Battleship - $38.7 million
3. What to Expect - $21.9 million
4. The Dictator - $17.5 million ($24.5 million five-day)
5. Dark Shadows - $14.6 million (-51%)

John
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Fri May 18, 2012 2:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

TDK in its third weekend dropped by 43.2 percent ($42.6 million).

In looking at the second weekends for TDK and Avengers, Avengers' percentage drop was slightly less than TDK (50.3 percent for Avengers, 52.5 percent for TDK).

As you've said, John, TDK has done better weekday business but also benefitted from being a July release, whereas Avengers had its weekdays fall when school was still in sessions, but its weekend numbers have allowed it to catch up.

If Mojo's number holds up, then Avengers passes $455 million. If it does similar weekday business next week -- say, averaging $6 million per day -- then it closes on $480 million with Memorial Day weekend coming up.

Now, I don't believe Avengers takes the Memorial Day weekend crown. MiB3 will likely do a $50 million to $55 million opening number and Avengers is likely in the $30 million range at best.

Still, if Avengers can get those numbers, it will catch TDK.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sun May 20, 2012 9:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

$55M Avengers
$25M Battleship

We can add Battleship to Dark Shadows as a US summer bomb.

Avengers beat TDK again, and hs pushed far enough infront that it sure looks like a lock to top it.

Hunger Games dropped down to $3M, but also pushed past $391M and was only -33.4% despite dropping to 2000 theaters. Down to 7th, so it will be losing screens quicker, but $400M looks like a lock given Memorial Day coming up pushing it even closer to the mark. A really amazing Phenom.

John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Tue May 22, 2012 2:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is rather interesting from Monday's box office:

4th Monday
$6,287,429 TDK
$5,687,934 Avengers

Avengers has never been within $1M of a TDK weekday, and for the most part has $2M behind. This is a massive and sudden leap forward where it's less than $600K behind.

TDK at this point had $133M in the tank left. $133M puts the Avengers right up against $600M.

Ummm...

Big weekend for Avengers to see how much it hauls in over the 4-day, and also how it fairs with MIB-3 coming out. Just how far past $500M is it going this holiday weekend?

Here's the TDK number to compare with after Monday:

$445,370,695

TDK had just under $88M left, which was still good legs.

I don't think Avengers is getting to Titanic's "new" mark after the re-release. But it is really getting close to where it takes its "old" mark. It's clearly going to dust TDK unless it just collapses this weekend... but that Monday number doesn't reflect a collapse. Lordy... that's a non-summer Monday at a time when kids and teens need to be working on the home stretch of their school year. :)

John
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Wed May 23, 2012 10:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm guessing Avengers gets to $560 million, possibly $570 million, but getting to $600 million is not likely. It would need an uptick in business during Memorial Day weekend, and given that it would be its fourth weekend, it's not likely we see that.

Avatar's drop from its first to second weekend was barely noticeable, and Titanic saw its business go up its second weekend.

While it's true the buzz around Avengers has been positive, I suspect most of those who wanted to see it have already done so, so now it's mostly repeat business.

Not saying we should entirely rule out Avengers doing better business this coming weekend, but it just doesn't seem likely.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Wed May 23, 2012 11:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's not getting to Avatar: impossible. :)

But I'm just comparing it to TDK's pace, which it's been ahead of HUGE each weekend, and just cut the gap on weekdays to a very low level. Here's what TDK did on the coming 4th Fri-Mon:

FRI: $7,577,362
SAT: $10,502,243
SUN: $8,037,425
MON: $3,742,198
TOT: $29,859,228

Avengers is going to destroy those numbers: it did $5.7M *this* Monday on a non-Holiday.

Again, TDK number to compare with after Monday:

$445,370,695

TDK had just under $88M left, which was still good legs.

Avengers probably us going to be at a level come Monday where if it has $88M left in that tank at that point, it will put it past $600M. There really isn't anything from the numbers that would lead anyone to think it has less left in the tank than TDK.

John
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corrado



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PostPosted: Wed May 23, 2012 1:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Cross off GiJoe2 from the box office chase as it has been moved to March 2013. The official reason was to add 3D.

So thats one less movie for this summer. And the late June date could be filled by another movie which could avoid the Dark Knight Rises juggernaut.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Thu May 24, 2012 1:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Avengers at $472 million through Wednesday's box office. It will pass $475 million tonight and $500 million this weekend.

The question on the $500 million number is: By how much?

And by that, I refer to Friday-through-Sunday numbers. It should have more than $500 million before including the Memorial Day number.

Men in Black 3 will be the likely favorite to win the Memorial Day crown this year. Chernobyl Diaries is the other big flick, but it wouldn't surprise me to see Avengers beat that movie's number for the weekend. While MiB will be released in 4,000 theaters, Diaries is being released to just below 2,500.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Thu May 24, 2012 4:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Spidey made $35,814,844 on it's Fri-Mon.

I would expect Avengers to make $40M+ on Friday-Mon after at least $3.5M on Thu. That would take it past $515M, which would be over $80M ahead of TDK, which as mentioned above had $88M left at that tank at that point.

If Avengers gets to $515M by the end of Monday, I think it will be pretty close to a lock to get to $600M... especially with Joe going away. It's not that Joe would have been a major hit, but it would have eaten screens from it.

John
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Fri May 25, 2012 9:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mojo's predictions for the four-day weekend:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3446&p=.htm

Assuming Avengers has hit the $475 million mark after Thursday's box office, that would put it at $515 million, as John indicated.

I'm still not positive it will reach $600 million, but it will make a push to get there.

Mojo does raise some good points about Will Smith and how he hasn't headlined a film for some time. So that could be a positive for MiB3.

More good news is that MiB3 is faring better with critics than Dark Shadows and Battleship have:

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/men_in_black_iii/

EDIT: Roger Ebert liked MiB3: http://rogerebert.suntimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20120523/REVIEWS/120529988
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jdw
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PostPosted: Fri May 25, 2012 3:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

More on why I think it's getting to $600M:

Avengers vs TDK
Mon: $5,687,934 vs $6,287,429
Tue: $4,917,764 vs $5,661,240
Wed: $3,968,406 vs $5,077,367
Thu: $4,445,167 vs $4,734,366

The advantage of the Summer Weekdays is fading for TDK.

More TDK numbers:

$415,511,467 TDK to date
$533,345,358 TDK to total

It had $117,833,891 left in the tank. Add that onto Avengers number going into the weekend takes you to $594,518,679. Except Avengers is going to crush the heck out of what TDK did in this same Fri-Mon:

$29,859,228

Right there the $5.5M needed to close the pace to $600M goes away.

TDK's entire 4th Week (week... not weekend) was $39,191,390. Avengers will likely get there there on the four-day, with Tue-Thu just adding gravy.

Really amazing.

Titanic's new number after the re-release is $658M+. I don't think Avengers has a shot at that, but perhaps this weekend surprises us. In contrast to TDK's pace, it does have summer weekdays coming up in a couple of weeks. It's number of screens will be down, but it probably at that point will pick up steam again.

John
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Fri May 25, 2012 3:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think what makes Avengers more impressive than Titanic is it got all its numbers on the first release. Titanic's recent re-release was because it was filmed in 3-D.

Not taking away from what Titanic on its original run, but the re-releases happening as of late are because of the 3-D movement. Star Wars has been getting the same treatment.

Avatar got that as well, but Avatar's 3-D release came pretty quickly after the original release -- and more importantly, Avatar's legs were simply incredible.

I don't think we'll ever see a film reach Avatar's pace, even on multiple releases.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sat May 26, 2012 12:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

$18M for MIB3 on Friday. Don't know if that is the type of start that will get it to $80M this weekend.

$9.68M for Avengers, which if over $2M ahead of what TDK did the same day. Avengers has done much more on the last two Saturdays than Friday, and slightly more on Sunday than on Friday. Add in the holiday on Monday, and this is going to be an easy $40M four day take, and possibly quite a bit more than that. Really think it's going to make a run at $600M.

John
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Sat May 26, 2012 3:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

MIB3 looks like it may outperform MIB2. Mojo is projecting a $70 million number Friday-Monday.

The other MIB moves debuted on Fourth of July, so it's harder to compare their first weekends -- but I think MIB3 will have enough to do a better overall number than MIB2, especially with more critics liking it than they did MIB2.

I don't know if it will catch the first MIB, though, which made $250 million. But MIB3 will get to $200 million (the second one fell short of that mark) and may finish around $225 million.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Sun May 27, 2012 11:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mojo's weekend estimates:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/

Keep in mind those are Friday through Sunday numbers.

MIB3 looks like it will come close to $70 million after Memorial Day. That should mean $200 million will be reached.

Avengers, meanwhile, will be more than $513 million if the estimate holds up, and should pass $520 million after Memorial Day.
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