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Box Office Thread 2012
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jdw
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Joined: 01 Sep 2005
Posts: 16967

PostPosted: Thu Dec 13, 2012 5:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Peak to current:



$255,813,342 --> $270,972,532 Twi 4.2
$246,712,819 --> $264,414,319 Skyfall

$9,100,523 --> $6,558,213 Gap

The Hobbit of course is going to eat up a ton of business this weekend. But Skyfall is probably going to catch it by the end of the weekend before Christmas.

I wonder if Skyfall has enough to get to $300M. It seems a long ways off, and a lot of movies are coming out that will crowd it off screens. But...

At this same point, Quantum of Solace had just under $10M left in the tank. However, looking at their same current weeks:

$13,794,239 Skyfall
$5,280,820 Quantum of Solace

That's without Skyfall's numbers for Thursday, which is going to be $900K or so. In other words, Skyfall is taking in almost triple what QoS was. Last week it was $21.5M vs $9.0M, comfortable over double... it's treanding upward rapidly.

It's going to be about $35M short of $300M heading into this weekend, with a monster opening opposite it. But it is probably the #2 movie of the weekend, and the following weekend leads into the Holiday week which is longer than usual give the holidays themselves falling on Tuesdays. This will be interesting.

John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Tue Dec 18, 2012 4:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

After the weekend and Monday:

$255,813,342 --> $270,972,532 --> $277,349,871 Twi 4.2
$246,712,819 --> $264,414,319 --> $272,623,067 Skyfall

$9,100,523 --> $6,558,213 --> $4,726,804 Gap

Skyfall will probably pass it right around Christmas. The run to $300M continues to look interesting.

Hard to gauge The Hobbit. It's at $92M through Monday. All of the LotR movies opened on Wed, so there isn't a good 1-to-1 comp. It's about $10M ahead of Fellowship even with two less days of release. Fellowship had the lowest rake of the three at $313M. Fellowship is coming up on 8 straight days of good business because of how it's Christmas fell (it was released on thr 19th while the Hobbit was on the 14th), so a chunk of that $10M will be wiped out over the next few days. We all assumed that the Hobbit will get to $300M, but it might be close.

John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sun Dec 23, 2012 7:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

After the second weekend:

$227,366,118 Twilight 4.2
$160,941,621 Skyfall
$149,858,000 The Hobbit

Skyfall is now less than $2M behind Twilight, so it will catch it in the next few days. It also looks like Skyfall will be the #1 winter movies. The Hobbit isn't getting to $300M.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sun Dec 30, 2012 7:09 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Hobbit is raking in a lot of $10M days over the holidays. They're all estimates at this point, but it passed $200M on Friday. Looks like it may be #1 again this weekend, and we have another Holiday-ish week ahead.

Skyfall is up to about $286M and is plugging away around $1M to $1.5M a day through the holidays. It should get a bit past $290M by the end of Tuesday, and it will be interesting to see how far past that number it will be by the end of next weekend. There are a lot more launches of note in January and February next year that will eat away theaters. On the other hand, it may be within range of $300M that they try to milk it along to that number: the first Bond to top it. It's already topped Twilight. It also looks like it's going to get to $1B worldwide: at $980M right now. Another reason to try to milk everything out of the US that they can.

John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2013 4:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

$293,046,816 Skyfall
$287,405,261 Twilight 4.2

Skyfall was still pulling in $750K on Wed, so by the end of the weekend will have cut off probably have the distance to $300M.

Twi was under $400K on Wed. $290M looks likely, but not a ton beyond.

The Hobbit is up to $242M, with just under $4.5M on Wed. Another $4M+ on Thu, and a good weekend... it may chase down Skyfall.

John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 16, 2013 4:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

$299,627,928 Skyfall

Still pulling in $100K a weekday, it will go past $300M in a few days. Pretty cool.

$290,281,174 Twilight 4.2

Pulling in $50K a weekday, under $650K this past weekend. It's not getting to $300M.

$279,689,070 The Hobbit

Pulled in a combined $1.4M the last two weekdays, $9M on the weekend. Shot at $300M as it's still in a lot of theaters. But a number of things out in the coming weeks that will put the squeeze on it. To a degree, it needs to close off a good amount of that $21M gap to $300M in the next couple of weekends.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 20, 2013 12:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Arnold's return was an epic bomb this weekend.

Skyfall got to $300M. Hobbit up to $287M with a still decent $6M+ and reasonable drop. Decent bet to get to $300M unless it's quickly squeezed out of theaters.

Pi is less than $1M from $100M. Rise of the Guardians is also getting there soon.

Flight is over $92M, but does seem to have the steam to get to $100M. Nor does Reacher. The last 2012 release with a chance is Zero Dark Thirty, which is pretty much a cheat: is really a 2013 release that was tossed in a handful of theaters to get in the Oscar battle, but really thrown out into release on Jan 11.
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