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Box Office Thread 2013
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jdw
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 19, 2013 4:55 pm    Post subject: Box Office Thread 2013 Reply with quote

We have our second $100M movie of the year as Oz blew past the number and looks like it's got a chance at $200M.

Identity Thief was the first $100M movie and is up to about $124M.

John
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Sat Apr 13, 2013 8:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Oz is the first $200 million film of 2013.

Since the summer box office season begins in a couple of weeks, let's roll out the candidates to win the summer crown.

Iron Man 3: A possible $300 million candidate, depending on how strong the buzz is following Avengers versus how well it's initially received.

Star Trek Into Darkness: I think there will be enough interest off the first Abrams flick to get it past $250 million. Potential $300 million candidate if reviews are strong.

Hangover III: It gets the Memorial Day weekend spot, opposite the animated flick Epic (which won't really draw away its audience) and Fast and Furious 6 (which could draw some away). It should be good for $200 million with $250 million possible. I don't think it will threaten any MD records, though.

Man of Steel: The Superman relaunch. Likely a $200 million to $250 million flick. Whether it can reach $300 million depends on the initial reviews and buzz.

Monsters University: Pixar flicks are usually safe bets to pass $200 million. Their first Monsters flick did $250 million plus. I could see this one reaching that number if its well received.

The Lone Ranger and Despicable Me 2: Both get the July 4 weekend. It's possible the flicks divide the audience that weekend. The first Despicable Me reached $250 million. I guess the sequel will pass $200 million. Lone Ranger could be a sleeper if well received.

The Wolverine: Another in the series of X-Men flicks. The first flick focusing on Wolverine did respectable business but fell short of $200 million. I watched that one and it was pretty poorly written. This one will need good writing and directing to get some buzz going back into the franchise. But at this point, the new Wolverine flick is looking at $150 million to $175 million.

I have no idea what to make of any other films being released this summer.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 16, 2013 3:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mojo's summer forcast came out last year in early May, so it's something to keep an eye out for:

http://boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3433&p=s.htm

http://boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3434&p=s.htm

John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 16, 2013 4:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bob Morris wrote:
Since the summer box office season begins in a couple of weeks, let's roll out the candidates to win the summer crown.

Iron Man 3: A possible $300 million candidate, depending on how strong the buzz is following Avengers versus how well it's initially received.


$318,412,101 Iron Man
$312,433,331 Iron Man 2

This strikes me as a near-lock for $300M coming off Avengers. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if it gets very close to halfway there on its opening weekend. :)


Quote:
Star Trek Into Darkness: I think there will be enough interest off the first Abrams flick to get it past $250 million. Potential $300 million candidate if reviews are strong.


The last one did $250M with only a $75M opening weekend. Good legs for a modern movie. A similar movie was the first of the recent Batman movies: not off the charts opening ($48M), but good legs to get over $200M in and around other big movies that summer.

This one could be one of those sequels that does huge business... or falls flat. It has a lot of stuff eating into it the following weekend with FF, Hangover and Epic all eating at the corners of its audience.

Quote:
Hangover III: It gets the Memorial Day weekend spot, opposite the animated flick Epic (which won't really draw away its audience) and Fast and Furious 6 (which could draw some away). It should be good for $200 million with $250 million possible. I don't think it will threaten any MD records, though.


This is the strangest Memorial Day that I've ever seen. Just bloated. I could see Hangover vs FF, but don't really have a clue why Epic dropped in there. I also wonder if FF wasn't getting a little cocky taking this spot after their last one was the first to get to $200M.

On Epic, these guys have had a lot of success:

$176M Ice Age (3/15/02)
$128M Robots (3/11/05)
$195M Ice Age 2 (3/31/06)
$154M Horton Hears A Who (3/14/08)
$196M Ice Age 3 (7/1/09)
$143M Rio (4/15/11)
$161M Ice Age 4 (7/13/12)

But Ice Age has been the only one they've been willing to open in the Summer. I'm a little surprised that they didn't do the Late March to Mid April route with this one. DreamWorks' The Croods took that spot instead, and Epic has a tough spot.

Quote:
Man of Steel: The Superman relaunch. Likely a $200 million to $250 million flick. Whether it can reach $300 million depends on the initial reviews and buzz.


Agree: Could do $200M like the last one... could do much more if they hit it out of the park and it becomes a phenom.


Quote:
Monsters University: Pixar flicks are usually safe bets to pass $200 million. Their first Monsters flick did $250 million plus. I could see this one reaching that number if its well received.


A lock for $200M, and my guess is that this one opens stronger than Brave and Cars 2 ($66M each). It's not going to open with $110M+ like Toy Story 3, but my guess is that it will get past $80M to make the run past $200M easier. The question is how good it will be. I think $275M+ is possible if it's a "crowd pleasing" movie that's well done.

Quote:
The Lone Ranger and Despicable Me 2: Both get the July 4 weekend. It's possible the flicks divide the audience that weekend. The first Despicable Me reached $250 million. I guess the sequel will pass $200 million. Lone Ranger could be a sleeper if well received.


Hard to tell on both.

Lone Range could completely bomb... or it could draw a big chunk of the Pirates fans to see Deep.

The first Despicable Me was a stunning hit: few Pixar movies have topped it's box office. Even with that number, it doesn't feel like it has the resonance of Shrek or even the Ice Age movies. I wonder if this will be like Kung Fu Panda: $215M --> $165M for the sequel.


Quote:
The Wolverine: Another in the series of X-Men flicks. The first flick focusing on Wolverine did respectable business but fell short of $200 million. I watched that one and it was pretty poorly written. This one will need good writing and directing to get some buzz going back into the franchise. But at this point, the new Wolverine flick is looking at $150 million to $175 million.


The last Wolverine did $179M, but that was in the Leadoff Spot to open May. That wasn't a great number for the Leadoff Spot:

2000: $188M Gladiator
2001: $202M Mummy 2
2002: $403M Spidey
2003: $214M X-2
2004: $120M Van Helsing
2005: $47M Kingdom of Heaven
2006: $134M MI-III
2007: $337M Spidey 3
2008: $318M Iron Man
2009: $179M X-Origins
2010: $312M Iron Man 2
2011: $181M Thor
2012: $623M Avengers
2013: Iron Man 3

A little soft. It's now deeper into the summer, with competition.

Quote:
I have no idea what to make of any other films being released this summer.


Grown Ups should do $100M. 2 Guns with Denzel and Marky Mark could get $100M.

The rest? Who knows. :)

John
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Steve Yohe



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PostPosted: Thu Apr 18, 2013 8:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm thinking it's going to be a weak summer.--Yohe
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jdw
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 25, 2013 1:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Grantland's summer preview:

Summer Movie Preview! Our picks and predictions for the coming blockbuster season

Take the box office $$$ predictions with a grain of salt since it doesn't look like they're Mojo-level experts on specifics. But they probably have a reasonable feel for what will do well and what has a chance to bomb.

John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 29, 2013 12:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Box Office Mojo: Summer 2013 Forecast

They see Iron Man ($400M) and Despicable Me 2 ($300M) as the two bets for $300M+, with Man of Steel, Monsters and Star Trek in the $250M-$290M range. They report that Superman is getting strong preview buzz, while Star Trek isn't.

John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Thu May 02, 2013 6:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3680&p=.htm

Holy smokes... Mojo is predicting a $177M opening for Iron Man 3.

It's already over $300M overseas, and Mojo says it will hit $450M overseas by the end of the weekend in addition to the $150M+ here. Yow!

John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Fri May 03, 2013 12:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

From Mojo, an update to the article linked above:

Quote:
Friday A.M. Update: Disney is reporting that Iron Man 3 earned $15.6 million from Thursday evening shows in the U.S. That's a bit lower than the midnight opening for The Avengers last year ($18.7 million). This essentially ensures that Iron Man 3 won't match The Avengers for the weekend, considering it's much easier to fill seats at 9 p.m. than at midnight. Still, the movie remains on pace for at least $150 million by the end of the weekend.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sat May 04, 2013 2:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

$68M opening Friday for Iron Man 3. Behind Avengers, but Mojo is thinking $170M-ish weekend for it.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Mon May 06, 2013 12:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mojo wasn't too far off its projected opening for Iron Man 3: $174 million. Second all time behind Avengers.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3682&p=.htm

Worldwide gross is already at $680 million. As for the US gross, $300 million is official. $375 million is a safe bet, given that Harry Potter 7.2 (third highest opening at $169 million) reached $381 million.

$400 million is a possibility, depending on how big the dropoff is in its second weekend.

But, yeah, Iron Man 3 has a huge jump in the summer box office crown race.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Mon May 06, 2013 4:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If IM-3 simply matches what IM-2 had left in the tank at this point ($184M), that would take IM-3 to $358M. Since it beat the hell out of IM-2 on Sat and Sun in addition to Fri, and it's % drops on both Sat & Sun were less than IM-2... you have to think IM-3 has more than $184M left in in the tank.

Two sets of numbers to watch:

* IM-2 was down 59.4% at the box office on the second weekend.

* IM-2 made $31M Mon-Thu, a $7.75M average ($9.4M Mon down to $6.3M on Thu).

If IM is ahead of both of those numbers come the end of next weekend, then $400M is a lock.

Avengers was down 50.3% it's second weekend... that an indication of how hard it is even for a movie with "legs" to contain it's % drop when it's opening weekend is so monstrous. That's why I way that if IM-3 can keep it under 60%, it's going to do $400M at the box office.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Tue May 07, 2013 1:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

First Monday
$11,267,610 IM-3 (-73.8%)
$9,366,982 IM-2 (-69.9%)

More money, bigger drop. It's actually about the same drop as IM-1, which was the one with legs. So I wouldn't read too much into this in terms of drop: massive openings are going to drop on Monday, especially when it's a school day rather than summer weekday. That's it's close to $2M above IM-2 means that it's putting even more distance between the two. It's $48M up on IM-2's pace right now. It needs to get and stay $88M up on the pace to get to $400M. Seems pretty likely that it will be $50M+ up before the weekend starts.

John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Wed May 08, 2013 1:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

First Monday
$11,267,610 IM-3 (-73.8% vs Sun)
$9,366,982 IM-2 (-69.9% vs Sun)

First Tuesday
$11,286,896 IM-3 (+0.2% vs Mon)
$8,380,235 IM-2 (-10.5% vs Mon)

Well... um... that feels like a $400M movie. It's early to tell, but... yeah... it's going to need a big fall off this weekend to keep it from getting there.

John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Thu May 09, 2013 4:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

First Mon
$11,267,610 IM-3 (-73.8% vs Sun)
$9,366,982 IM-2 (-69.9% vs Sun)

First Tue
$11,286,896 IM-3 (+0.2% vs Mon)
$8,380,235 IM-2 (-10.5% vs Mon)

First Wed
$8,112,391 IM-3 (-28.1% vs Tue)
$6,951,326 IM-2 (-17.1% vs Tue)

% drop is bigger for IM-3 than IM-2 on Wed, but I read that as so many people still going to see it on Tue that the number for that was so high rather than Wed was such a steep drop. Here's what is more telling:

$30,666,897 IM-3 Mon-Wed
$31,037,391 IM-2 Mon-Thu

IM-3 made essentially the same box office Mon-Wed that IM-2 made in its *four* first weekdays of Mon-Thu.

I don't really see anything to think it's not a $400M movie.

John
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