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Box Office Thread 2013
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jdw
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 09, 2013 10:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bob Morris wrote:
At this point, it looks like Iron Man 3 will win the summer box office crown, unless The Wolverine becomes a phenom. It should at least have better writing and directing than the Wolverine Origins movie did.


I think the only one that has a chance is DM2 if it holds up huge this coming weekend. DM1 had almost $200M of it's $250M left in the tank at this point, and DM2 is already at $143M. DM1's second weekend was $32M, which DM2 should clobber. So it will be interesting to see if DM2 in it's opening weeks can get to $150M+ ahead of DM1's pace, and then stick to it.

IM3 is at $406M, and will probably top out at no more than $410M.

Not likely... but small chance that makes the coming weekend of DM2 really interesting. :)
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jdw
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 09, 2013 12:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

First Monday
$11,019,202 MU
$10,512,110 DM2
$7,525,540 DM1

That's actually quite good for DM2 relative to MU since it had a Wed-Sun before that while MU was a Fri-Sun opening.

Of course it beat up DM1, adding another $3M to the gap. It's almost $90M ahead. Mentioned above: we're looking to see if it gets $150M ahead for a chance at $400M.

Looking at MU...

3rd Monday
$3,615,623 Up (-23.2%)
$2,579,798 WAL-E (-42.7%)
$2,560,973 MU (-67.6%)
$2,540,958 Brave (-52.8%)
$1,986,673 Cars 2 (-62.9% - prior Mon was 4th of July)

Through 3rd Monday
$218,814,952 MU
$191,041,612 Up
$176,510,299 Brave
$165,635,698 WAL-E
$150,818,203 Cars 2

The comp to Brave is about a week apart - Ice Age 4 came out Brave's fourth weekend, while MU got DM2 on it's 3rd. Next Monday might be a more reasonable comp.

Left in the tank
$101,962,552 Up
$60,772,908 Brave
$58,172,466 Wal-E
$40,634,193 Cars 2

That does give a good idea of Pixar legs. Even if it matches the weaker legs of Cars 3, MU is up close to $260M. If it matches WAL-E, it's over $275M and it's close to $280M if it matches Brave. Since it's still beating up Cars 2, you'd have to think $270M is easy.

John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 10, 2013 4:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

First Tuesday
$12,070,940 DM2
$11,848,064 MU
$8,151,220 DM1

It is getting beaten up by Toy Story 3 on the weekdays: a pair of $15M days for TS3 on Mon-Tue. But those are still massive numbers.

John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 12, 2013 4:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Can Johnny Depp's Career Be Saved?

It seems worthwhile to post this here. :)
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Steve Yohe



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PostPosted: Sat Jul 13, 2013 1:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

There is nothing wrong with Johnny Depp's career. He needs to stop making 200 mil westerns. The movie is Ok, like ***1/4, but you can only sell westerns to a limited amount of people. You can't sell a western overseas & 40 to 50% of your money comes from there.

So once again the studio spent too much money making it. There are people who push budgets upward because it's easier to steal from a 200 mil project than a 60 mil movie. There are studio leeches who do nothing but attach their name to a project & get a big number salary. A lot of movie people make big money off these stupid blockbusters, & it doesn't matter what they do at the boxoffice. It's the studio that loses money, everyone else got their cut a head of time.---Yohe
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 13, 2013 1:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

There is something wrong with his career:

http://boxofficemojo.com/people/chart/?view=Actor&id=johnnydepp.htm

The only hit since Alice In Wonderland was Pirates 4, which is a long worn out film series. His two movies before Alice were bombs as well. Bascially he's had two hits since the original Pirates trilogy finished in 2007: Alice and Pirates 4.

Beyond that, there really aren't many/any good movies in there. In fact, how far back do you have to go to find the good movies?
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 13, 2013 1:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

2nd Friday
$20,155,038 Shrek 2
$17,950,643 TS3
$13,400,000 DM2

We can stick a fork in DM2 getting to $400M. It was behind MU's 2nd Friday as well, after being behind if Wed-Thu as well.

It came into the weekend with a massive $60M lead over MU, pretty much where it was from the Wed-Thu opening days where it opened two days earlier than MU.

$300M easy. Don't think it quite gets to $350M, though perhaps in that general range.

On MU...

4th Friday
$6,131,540 Up
$3,289,275 Brave
$3,269,000 MU
$2,986,203 WAL-E
$2,434,771 Cars2

So MU is still pretty much tracking Brace, which will take it into the $270M to $280M range. Also shows where Up was flashing its legs.
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Steve Yohe



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PostPosted: Sun Jul 14, 2013 2:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Last year's bomb DARK SHADOWS made $245 mil. Tim Burton wanted him & he owes his career to him. PIRATES 4 did over a billion in 2011. ALICE IN WONDERLAND did over a billion in 2010. Both were star driven projects. Depp is the blockbuster king like Chuck Heston was in the 60's. He is doing fine. He just had a bomb and everyone wants to take shots at him. It's not a bad movie & he's good in it.--Yohe
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 14, 2013 5:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I mentioned Pirates 4 and Alice.

Dark Shadows was a bomb. It cost $150M to make, then toss in advertising, and take out the cut that the threaters get. Bomb.
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Steve Yohe



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PostPosted: Sun Jul 14, 2013 10:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

"Dark Shadows was a bomb. It cost $150M to make, then toss in advertising, and take out the cut that the threaters get. Bomb."

Because the studio spent too much money on a stupid idea. Can't blame Depp & they don't. Burton made Depp & Johnny will do anything he asks. It still made 250 mil. Make it cheap & it's a blockbuster. How many Billion dollar films has he made? He had just made two in two years.

Most stars believe in having a film in the can before a project is release.

Depp doesn't really care....he just does his acting job...and never see the movie. He says his part is done & it's in the hands of the actor, crew, editors, & studio. He just wants his money. It's a job.

Every major movie star from Clark Gable to Cary Grant to Steve McQueen made bombs. It just works that way. You can't look at a project & tell if it's a hit or not, until it's in the hands of the public.

To be a true star in Hollywood, the foruma used to be that an actor needed two huge his in a row, and then he'll be considered a star for most of his life. Depp has had a bunch. People will always use him & he'll be set for life..at least at some level.

Women are different, one bomb & you need a production company of your own or go to TV. Hollwood eats up female actors & spits them out. Produsers all want the hot new chick. So they are always moving on.

It's funny how easy it is for one of these CG mess's to lose money...big money. If the SF & CG is more important than Story & acting your in trouble. And most of the CG SF studios are going broke.

John may not like the movies he's seen of Depp's lately, but Depp is doing fine. Yes maybe he could use a better project.

For me, I don't care if a film is a bomb or not, I just want a good movie to watch. I judge them on that.--Yohe
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jdw
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 19, 2013 3:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

"2nd" Thursday
$7,481,506 TS3
$5,075,659 Shrek 2
$5,000,505 DM2
$3,480,544 Shrek 3

"2nd" because DM2 actually opened early because of the 4th, so this really is it's third Thurday... but these would be the comps.

The Shreks aren't perfect comps for another reason: 5/19 & 5/18 releases, so those are School Day Thursdays rather than Summer Weekdays.

It's actually falling behind Monster U here, which was at $5,228,602.

Through "2nd" Thursday
$276,591,486 Shrek 2
$258,826,169 TS3
$251,100,035 DM2
$227,906,792 Shrek 3

Left in the tank:

$164,634,761 Shrek 2
$156,178,711 TS3
$94,813,152 Shrek 3

The problem because of those school day weekedays is that the Shreks have some killer weekends still in the tank:

3rd Weekend
$37,931,716 Shrek 2
$30,280,024 TS3
$28,020,991 Shrek 3

DM2 is going to have a hard time matching those: they would be drops of -13.6%, -31.0% and -36.2% from last weekend. Perhaps it has great legs and gets $28M. But that would be tremendous for a 3rd weekend: Shrek 2 and TS3 dropped -47.4% and -49% to achive those totals, and they were massive phenoms.

Anyway, the point would be that I don't think DM2 has close to that $164M and $151M that Shrek 2 and TS3 had in the tank. It needs that TS3 number to get to $400M. Ain't happening.

On the other hand, perhaps it has close to the $94M that Shrek 3 had left, maybe beating it up on the weekdays to make up for losing the weekends. That's the thing to watch for this weekend: can it top that $28M, or at least stay somewhat close to it. Needs to do that to get to $350M, which is beyond what Shrek 3 had left in the tank.

On MU:

4th Thursday
$2,512,021 Up
$1,574,481 WAL-E
$1,531,828 Brave
$1,419,242 Cars2
$1,327,433 MU

MU was at the bottom there, but it was an odd up and down week for it, so I'll add this to show the week as a whole:

4th Week
$34,396,562 Up
$17,848,389 Brave
$16,852,827 MU
$16,223,577 WAL-E
$13,737,213 Cars2

That's more representative. It's still up on the pace of WAL-E, and kicking the crap out of Cars 2. But it's also dropped off of Brave a bit.

Also... this is where Up is just kicking the crap out of these guys: it's 5th week pulled in $21,122,488

Through 4th Thursday
$243,992,254 MU
$237,172,817 Up
$202,749,186 Brave
$188,885,890 WAL-E
$170,719,438 Cars2

Left in the Tank
$55,831,347 Up
$34,922,274 WAL-E
$34,534,021 Brave
$20,732,958 Cars2

That seems about right: that MU has $30M+ left in the tank. Needs just a shade over $31M to get to $275M. Going to be over $270M and could make a run to $275M.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 20, 2013 11:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

3rd Fri
$10,537,094 TS3
$10,453,720 Shrek 2
$7,500,000 DM2
$7,356,068 Shrek 3
$7,202,013 MU

Shrek 3 did strong Sat-Sun, over $20M which it's unlikely DM2 will match. Still, it's closer to matching Shrek 3's left over pace than the other two biggies.

Poor opening for Red 2 at just over $6M, while RIPD was down under $5M. Red 1 opened at $7.3M. It was in October. This one probably would have been better off either in October, or in Late Summer in say the middle of August when most of the biggies were all done. August 23 looks like the perfect summer spot for it: nothing of note that, then it's second weekend would be Labor Day weekend for a good second weekend.

Some of the release dates this summer have been pretty stupid. Turbo is another one that should have created more daylight between it and DM2.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 06, 2013 8:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

'The Lone Ranger' to Cost Disney $160-$190M in Q4

Here's the transcript of the call:

The Walt Disney's CEO Discusses F3Q 2013 Results - Earnings Call Transcript

Quote:
At the studio we released two films in the third quarter Iron Man 3 and Monsters University both of which performed exceptionally well at the box office. Iron Man 3 generated $1.2 billion in global box office revenue however it faced a difficult comparison with the Avengers which generated $1.5 billion in global box office last year and this is the third highest grossing film of all time.

Monsters University box office performance compared favorably to that of Brave last year, however operating income at the studio declined year-over-year. This decline was due to pre-released marketing expenses for the Lone Ranger and the aforementioned Avengers, Iron Man theatrical comparison. The Avengers also had a strong DVD sales in Q4 last year so the DVD release of Iron Man 3 in Q4 this year faces a difficult comparison which we expect to result in a headwind to the studios Q4 results of about $45 million.

Needless to say we’re disappointed with the performance of the Lone Ranger and in light of the film’s box office results we expect to incur loss on the film in Q4 of between $160 million and $190 million. Consumer’s products growth and operating income resulted from increases in merchandise licensing and retail. The increase in licensing was primarily due to the inclusion of Star Wars in this quarter’s results. Also earned licensing revenue was up 3% versus last year and that growth is on a comparable basis which excludes any revenue from the newly acquired Star Wars property. The performance of our retail business was driven by higher comp store sales in North America and Japan and higher online sales in North America.


John
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Fri Aug 16, 2013 6:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Summer's winding down and here's the 2013 box office chart from Mojo.

http://boxofficemojo.com/yearly/chart/?yr=2013&p=.htm

Iron Man 3 wins the summer box office crown and Despicable Me 2 was a strong second. Not sure how the studios will react to the Man of Steel number, though.

Pixar rolls in $250 million-plus for Monsters U and Fast and Furious 6 did very well. Oz and the new Star Trek are the others that clocked in past $200 million.

Two films to watch in November: Thor 2 (likely $200 million) and Hunger Games 2 (could be $300 million given the buzz the first flick got).

Then we get the next Hobbit flick in December.
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Steve Yohe



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PostPosted: Fri Aug 16, 2013 9:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

World War Z cost 190 mil to make, and before the Lone Ranger, it was the pick to be the bomb of the summer. The studio, before it was released, claimed that just breaking even would be a huge victory for Brad Pitt. Well it's now at 503 mil world wide. So guys, like me, who think Pitt is the biggest movie star, have an argument.--Yohe
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