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Box Office Thread 2013
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jdw
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 04, 2013 5:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

That's interesting. Hunger 2 is falling off Hunger 1's Mon-Tue numbers, but a $1M+ each day. Perhaps the long holiday weekend, along with the big opening, let a lot of people see this more frontloaded than the prior one. Also, the first one was a huge opening then turned into something of a phenom to get to $400M. This had a built in fanbase ready to see it early. With the Holiday making it even easier to go.

These Mon-Tue are April vs November comps, so it's not a matter of school days here being comped to summer days. The lead peaked Saturday at $48.8M, and is now $45.4M. Still a massive lead, and still would need to fall a lot off the pace to drop below $400M.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Sun Dec 08, 2013 9:08 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Third Friday numbers for both Hunger Games films:

HG: $12.7 million
CF: $7.7 million

That's a $5 million difference. Hunger Games 1 drew $32.9 million for its third weekend, whereas Catching Fire is probably going to come in around $20 million.

I still think Catching Fire should reach $400 million but its legs won't be the same as those of the first flick. Catching Fire's second weekend seems to have more to do with it being Thanksgiving weekend than being a film that had strong legs.

I suspect Catching Fire isn't going to hang around in theaters as long as the first flick did. As we've previously discussed, Hunger Games stuck around in theaters for 19 weeks.

But I think Catching Fire still has a shot at $400 million, given its opening weekend and the Thanksgiving weekend that followed.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sun Dec 08, 2013 10:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

There was something odd going on with that week of Hunger Games - big jump on Thu and very little jump from Fri to Sat. Looking it up, it was Good Friday, so I'm thinking there was a decent amount of the fan base that might have had Friday off (and/or Spring Break holiday from school). The Sat-Sun numbers were much closer between the movies, while the Thu-Fri gap was massive.

It's hard to read CF's numbers because of the Thanksgiving holiday making the prior week huge and this week look poor in comp. That said, the lead is down to $34M and dropping fast.

Hobbit comes out next week, and is going to crush it. HG did $21M next weekend, and CF won't come close to that.

I'm starting to wonder if $400M is a total lock. Thought it was midweek (that last post was Wed), but now... it really depends on how much it drops each day relative to HG1 and how badly Hobbit kills it next week.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Tue Dec 10, 2013 10:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Weekend box office:

* Frozen: $31.6 million
* Catching Fire: $26.1 million

Interesting how CF drew more money than Frozen Friday, only for Frozen to pass it by a significant amount Saturday and Sunday.

CF did fairly well but still behind Hunger Games' pace. CF is now at $335 million, so it might need a big boost down the stretch to get to $400 million.

If it does get there, I believe it's going to fall short of IM3's number.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Tue Dec 10, 2013 12:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's a 50/50 thing.

CF is way ahead of HG's overall pace through the weekend:

$335,850,842 CF
$302,450,722 HG

But it's lost Sun-Sun, the last 8 days. That's seen it's lead go from $48.8M to $33.4M in those 8 days. That's going to get smaller on Mon-Thu since CF last Mon-Thu did pretty close to what HG did *this* Mon-Thu: just $250K above. Given a normal decline, it's going to drop a few more million in just the weekdays.

Big, big, big test is this weekend with The Hobbit. HG had just a -36.3% drop with no direct comp in the openings: Stooges and Cabin in the Woods that weekend. There's no way CF only drops -36%. If it's 50%, which isn't unreasonable, that would be down to $13M and another $8M cut into the lead.

I think we both agree: $400M looked like a lock, until that rather huge -64.7% this past weekend.

All that said...

I wonder how much of the huge drop was due to:

* massive storm hitting the East
* CF being frontloaded

I think the second had most to do with it... but I wonder if the first had a little something to do with it being such a large jump.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Tue Dec 17, 2013 3:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hobbit 2 wins the weekend box office crown, as expected.

But then there's this:

Hobbit 1: $84.6 million
Hobbit 2: $73.6 million

With Monday's totals in, H2 is already $13 million off the first film's pace. Not a good sign for the second flick's chances of reaching $300 million.

Meanwhile, Catching Fire surpassed the $350 million mark. It's still $20 million ahead of Hunger Games as of Monday's totals, but it's falling behind the first flick's overall pace.

Catching Fire looks more like a $375 million flick at this point.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Sun Dec 22, 2013 6:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hobbit 2 up to $127.5 million. Still well behind Hobbit 1's pace.

Catching Fire reached $371 million. It is now $14 million ahead of Hunger Games' pace. If it manages to stay at $7 million to $8 million ahead of Hunger Games, it would reach $380 million. It's looking like Catching Fire could get to $390 million but may fall short of $400 million.

Anchorman 2 is at $40 million after five days, but the film's budget is pretty low ($50 million) so $100 million could be considered a good total -- but perhaps a mild disappointment considering how much build there was leading up to it.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sun Dec 22, 2013 9:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mojo was expecting Anchorman 2 to get to $60M total by Sunday, so $20M under it is really underperforming. :)

Hobbit is also losing steam as well.

This is starting to look like a strange Holiday season.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sun Dec 29, 2013 9:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Pretty much everything that opened this week bombed. Wolf may end up doing okay, but it's going to need a lot of Awards legs to do okay. The rest just blew up.

Catch Fire is now again a lock to get to $400M. The Christmas holiday really cranked its legs back up. Should get to $400M no later than next Sunday.

Frozen is really amazing.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Tue Dec 31, 2013 7:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Update on Catching Fire: During the holiday break, CF took a pretty big jump ahead of Hunger Games' pace:

http://boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=daily&id=hungertwilight.htm'

At the rate Catching Fire has been drawing money in recent days, it's getting to $400 million.

Box Office Mojo suspects it has a chance of surpassing the first Hunger Games and Iron Man 3. It would have to remain ahead of the first Hunger Games' pace, and stay in theaters long enough, to have that chance.

But it's pretty amazing to see a movie pick up steam again during the holiday break, after it had been out since before Thanksgiving.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 03, 2014 11:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think one of the things that helped CF is that there haven't been any any massive movies coming out after it, other than the Hobbit.

Looking further down, that seems to be helping other movies. Anchorman kind of bombed out of the gate (just $39M in its five day opening), but is now closing in on $100M. American Hustle didn't open up super big, but is up to $73M and a lock for $100M. Wolf of Wall Street didn't open up very well, but is probably got close to $50M by Thursday and has a chance at $100M if it holds up this weekend.

Weather, though, will be a factor over the weekend. :)
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Tue Jan 07, 2014 1:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Catching Fire surpassed $400 million and is staying ahead of Hunger Games' pace:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=daily&id=hungertwilight.htm

At the rate it's going, Catching Fire is a lock to pass Iron Man 3's total box office. To put this into perspective, Iron Man 3 opened the first week of May and officially closed in early September, and we haven't yet hit the two-month mark for Catching Fire's run in theaters.

Meanwhile, Frozen is well on its way to passing $300 million. It has won six straight box office weekends. It's nowhere near close to Avatar or Titanic, but Frozen has still made an impressive box office run.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3769&p=.htm
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jdw
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 14, 2014 6:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

$414,069,798 HG: Catching Fire
$409,013,994 Iron Man 3

Hunger Games had another $20M left in the tank at this point. Who knows if CF has that, but it does seem like $425M is doable, which would put it in the Top 10 ahead of Pirates 2.

Frozen is up to $318M, and had an insane $14M+ weekend holding up. This is a phenom at this point, since no one thought it would go here. Legs-o-Plenty left, this probably is going to be up around $350M unless another animated movie is coming out soon to kill it off. This on the heels of Despicable Me 2 being just shy of $370M.

American Hustle went past $100M, and Wolf is on the way.

Big January opening for Lone Survivor.

John
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Wed Jan 22, 2014 1:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This past weekend was the first weekend that Catching Fire fell behind Hunger Games.

Hunger Games had about $15 million left in the tank at this point. I don't know if Catching Fire will get an additional $15 million, but given its current take, $420 million is a lock. Maybe it reaches $425 million, if it sticks around in theaters long enough.

Frozen ($336 million) might make it to $350 million if it can keep its legs going. Even if it doesn't get there, it's still had an impressive run.

Ride Along had a very good opening weekend at $41.5 million... but that probably belongs in a 2014 thread. :)
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 02, 2014 9:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Frozen up to $360M on a weekend where it *increased* its box office. Wow!

Lego Movie is out next week, which will probably slow it down. But it's going to top Despicable Me 2 in short order. This thing is an utter phenom, and just way beyond what anyone could have predicted. DM2 was as well, but at least it was a sequel to a well liked movie that made $251M the first time out. Hell, it has a chance at Nemo to go Top 4 all-time for animated movies.

Wait... that's a cheat anyway. Lion King and Nemo are up that high because of big re-releases in 3-D. Frozen is going to be #3 on initial runs.

Wow.
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