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Box Office Thread 2014
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jdw
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 10, 2014 6:49 pm    Post subject: Box Office Thread 2014 Reply with quote

Time to start a new one. :)
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jdw
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 10, 2014 6:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Insane $69M opening weekend for Lego. The $22M for Monuments Men actually isn't bad.

How good was Lego? It already is the #2 movie of the weekend, less than $40M behind Ride Along which opened back on 1/17.

John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Tue Feb 18, 2014 12:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lego drew $50M on its second weekend (down from $69M), and $63M total over the four-day weekend. It's sitting at $143M, which is just insane. This will sail past $200M, and lord knows where it goes from there. Mr. Peabody & Sherman comes out on 3/7, so Lego has two more weekends unopposed. Big, big, big.

John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 03, 2014 5:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Another $20M for Lego, up to $209M. The Jan-Apr animated movies that Mojo is tracking it against:

http://boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=weekend&id=animatedjanapril.htm

Lorax is probably the best comp: it made the most money, and it came out in 2012 so we're not going too far back in time. Lorax had $36.6M left in the tank, which if matches would take Lego up to$245M. But Lego is killing it: $7M more on this past weekend, and dropping at a lower rate *every* weekend so far in release. It's got WAY more than $37M left in the tank.

It's hard to comp with Frozen since Frozen had that massive Christmas-through-New Years run which came 4 weeks into it's run. It's made $100M+ from 12/23 - 1/5, which there's no way Lego can match.

But... but... but...

After 4th weekend of Wide Release
$192,034,117 Frozen
$209,138,440 Lego

Remeber that Frozen got very limited release early in a handful of theaters before it's big release on 11/27. So it's real first weekend of release was the weekend after Thanksgiving.

So Lego is beating that by $17M, and that's even spotting Frozen $26M that it made in Wed 11/27 and Thu 11/28 while Lego actually opened wide on a Friday.

Um... wow.

Frozen got to $296M at the end of the Christmas-to-New Years two week run on 1/5. It's made another $92M since then, and is still plugging away. So...

I don't think Lego is getting to $300M. But if it did via some Frozen-style legs, or if it goes by $275M with some ease... I wouldn't be surprised. Big movie.

John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 10, 2014 1:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lego finally took a bit of a hit, down -47.6% to an $11M weekend. That still crushed all its comp here:

http://boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=weekend&id=animatedjanapril.htm

300 opened to $45M, which is between the two Titans movies:

http://boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=weekend&id=ancientbattle.htm

The first Titans movie goes to $163M, while the second one didn't hit $100M.

John
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Sat Mar 22, 2014 7:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Better late than never: Mojo's weekend forecast:

http://boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3802&p=.htm

They're not counting on Divergent becoming the next Hunger Games given the poor reviews. Lionsgate is already expecting a lower opening than Twilight.

The new Muppets movie is the other flick debuting but I tend to agree with Mojo that this flick might not draw in the audience the first one got.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 22, 2014 9:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Looks like Muppets is off to an even worse debut that expected. :(
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Sun Mar 23, 2014 8:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yep. Muppets might not do $20 million for the weekend.

Meanwhile, Mojo's early estimate for Divergent is $56 million.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sun Mar 30, 2014 12:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Stick a fork in Arnold. Sabotage opened in a distant 7th... and by distant, I mean $3.5M behind *6th* place. Mojo predicted a low $7.8M and it didn't even come close to that.

Captain America opened to a strong $75M overseas, which is really strong when remembering that the original Cap did a horrible $193M overseas (far and away the worst any of these Marvel Studios movies pulled in overseas).
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Sun Mar 30, 2014 2:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Captain America 2 will be interesting from the box office standpoint, to see how much of a bump it gets over the first flick.

Thor 2 finished more than $200 million, when the first flick fell short of that. It was a decent jump from the first (about $25 million), perhaps not quite the buzz the studio may have hoped for from Avengers, but still showed there was interest.

The first Captain drew $176 million, so you have to think the studio is hoping for at least $200 million from Captain 2. If it were take the jump that Thor took, that puts it just above $200 million. If it surpasses the $206 million Thor made, the studio will definitely be pleased.
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Rian



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PostPosted: Mon Mar 31, 2014 10:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

jdw wrote:
Stick a fork in Arnold. Sabotage opened in a distant 7th... and by distant, I mean $3.5M behind *6th* place. Mojo predicted a low $7.8M and it didn't even come close to that.

Captain America opened to a strong $75M overseas, which is really strong when remembering that the original Cap did a horrible $193M overseas (far and away the worst any of these Marvel Studios movies pulled in overseas).


And that Grand Budapest Hotel movie is being shown in art houses only here in Portland. Arnold will not "be bahk!"
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jdw
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 31, 2014 11:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bob Morris wrote:
Captain America 2 will be interesting from the box office standpoint, to see how much of a bump it gets over the first flick.

Thor 2 finished more than $200 million, when the first flick fell short of that. It was a decent jump from the first (about $25 million), perhaps not quite the buzz the studio may have hoped for from Avengers, but still showed there was interest.

The first Captain drew $176 million, so you have to think the studio is hoping for at least $200 million from Captain 2. If it were take the jump that Thor took, that puts it just above $200 million. If it surpasses the $206 million Thor made, the studio will definitely be pleased.


Thor vs Thor is kind of an interesting comp. Thor 2 ended up $25M+, but $20M of that was Opening Weekend and another $5M was the first Monday of Thor 2. There's the $25M in the first 4 days, and after that it was essentially even. What Avengers + Iron Man 3 did was help Thor 2 opening bigger, though not really insanely bigger.

I think Cap 2 is a reasonable bet to get to $200M because:

* no real comp through the whole of April

That as opposed to Summer or Winter Blockbuster Season, where big movies are coming out every weekend with the exception of the weekends after the Super Duper Stone Cold Cinch Mega Hits (kind of like Star Wars movies, or Batman 3, or Lord of The Rings, etc).

* it will likely get a Marvel Boost Opening Bump

Similar to Thor 2

* Avengers helped Cap

While Tony/Iron Man was still the "anchor" to Avengers and pretty much everyone knew it, and everyone went bonkers for the New Hulk (which still hasn't been cashed in on), I think Cap came across better in Avengers than he did in Cap 1. Whether there were some special instructions from on high at Marvel or it was simply Josh finding a way to balance Cap into that setting, there was a certain amount of TLC given to making him look good, strong, and dealing with some of his issues. I'm not sold that a Cap 2 coming out after Cap 1 and before Avengers would have done business like Iron Man 2 did... and it would have had the potential to do "disappointing" box office. Not saying Cap 1 sucked or was weak, but it also didn't seem to capture anyone's imagination like Iron Man 1 and 2 did. That $176M that it made is pretty representative of how it was kind of just "there": it was 9th biggest movie of that Summer, behind the Planer of the Apes sequal and just ahead of The Help, Bridesmaids and Kung Fu Panda 2.

So... $200M should be a lock. I think if it's a good/strong movie, it could easily get up to $250M. I frankly don't think Thor 2 was all that good relative to the anticipation of Thor and Loki working on the same side. The heels weren't interesting at all, and... it was disappointing relative to the first that had much more joy and entertainment to it. If Thor 2 were as good as Thor 1, I think it would have had a much better shot at getting to $250M+.

Same with Cap. If it's as subpar relative to Cap 1 as Thor 2 was to Thor 1, then it's going to fart out in the $200M range, but not much beyond. If they pull off a strong movie, it could do strong business until Spidey comes out in the Leadoff Spot. It might not be #1 all through April since Rio 2 comes out in a week, but there really isn't another strong looking action movie that should cut into it.

I'm pulling for a strong movie. I'm not as much of a fan of Cap in general like Yohe is, not of the first Cap movie as much as he is. But... I like a good Marvel movie as watchable entertainment. Thor 2 sunk down to a level that wasn't terribly entertaining to me, which was sad because I thought Iron Man 3 was the best of the three Iron Man movies (though I'm likely in the minority on that). I took it as a good sign coming off of the Avengers that the studio could stay at a watchable level. But in hindsight, I wonder how much of that was Downey working with Iron Man Creative to come up with a story he liked, dealing a lot with him being fucked up "after New York", and using that as a base to build the movie on more than just the Villain Of The Week. Then Thor 2 came... and it felt like a studio churning stuff our, and rather than having an interesting story tossed stuff at the wall and went more and more over the top in Action Stuff.

So... fingers cross for Cap 2.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Fri Apr 04, 2014 7:07 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mojo is predicting $98.6 million for Captain America 2 opening weekend.

http://boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3813&p=.htm
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jdw
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 07, 2014 9:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The expected big "Avengers Bump" opening for Cap:

$207,438,708 Avengers
$174,144,585 Iron Man 3
$128,122,480 Iron Man 2
$98,618,668 Iron Man
$96,200,000 Cap 2
$85,737,841 Thor 2

$65,723,338 Thor
$65,058,524 Cap 1
$55,414,050 Hulk


Iron Man of course is on a different level as seen by IM2 coming out before Avengers. But still, IM3 got a $46M bump, Thor got a $20M bump, and Cap looks to have gotten a $31M bump. It appears to have been a generally well liked movie, and looks to have been ahead of Thor the entire weekend. It should easily get to $200M, and if it has some legs it should get to $250M. It will need to have a strong second weekend to show that it's going a distance beyond $250M.

Cap 2has already made more money overseas than Cap 1, which was something of a bomb internationally. This is where the Avengers bump actually will be the biggest positive: that movie got Cap over to people world wide, where I think a lot of people believe the "America" in the title (and with the title character) hurt the first movie overseas. Avengers got Cap over as something more than "U-S-A! U-S-A!".

Lego passed $250M.

A number of movies getting past $100M over the weekend: Divergent, Peabody, with 300 getting there last weekend. Noah took a big 61% drop, but at $72M it looks like it will get to $100M eventually according to Mojo.

John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 10, 2014 12:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Can't make a Cap vs Cap 2 comp on Mon-Wed because Cap came out in the Summer and had Summer Weekdays where kids weren't in school. So... Cap 2 vs Thor 2 is probably the better comp, since Thor 2 was an early/mid Nov release.

Thor 2 kicked the living shit out of Cap 2 on Monday: $10,417,194 vs $6,219,552. Not sure what that's all about... a bit strange. Cap 2 came back on Tue-Wed:

Cap 2 vs Thor 2
Mon: $6,219,552 vs $10,417,194
Tue: $6,977,056 vs $5,244,111
Wed: $4,805,702 vs $3,565,731

When we see the Thu numbers tomorrow, it's likely going to be a wash-out set of weekdays: Tue-Thu wins by Cap to wash out the big Mon win by Thor. Cap will go into the second weekend with pretty much the same $10M lead it had from the first weekend.

This weekend is going to tell us whether Cap 2 is going to just be a $200M-ish movie, or challenge $250M and beyond.

Thor 2 pulled in $36M the second weekend, which as a -57% drop. If Cap drops that much, or more, then it's a $200M movie... and might have to fight to get there. If it can keep the drop to under 50%... $250M is a reasonable target given a fairly light April release schedule in terms of competition. To be a potential $300M movie, it's going to need a slight drop.

John
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